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Storm Brewing Over Aljunied GRC - Cherian George

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http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/one-word-aljunied-120517596.html

One word: Aljunied
By Ion Danker | SingaporeScene – Wed, Apr 27, 2011 8:05 PM SGT

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By Cherian George

As the Workers' Party A-team addressed their ecstatic supporters from an upper floor of Deyi Secondary this afternoon, a nondescript sign below them read "LIGHTNING RISK ALERT". It spoke more eloquently than the lightning-logo flags and placards wielded by hundreds of PAP supporters, of the storm brewing over Aljunied GRC.

You can bet that the ruling party will throw everything in its formidable arsenal at Low Thia Khiang and company. Equally, though, the raucous heckling that greeted every PAP candidate — even when Zainul Abidin Rasheed cheered "Majulah Singapura!" to try to shame WP supporters into gentlemanly conduct — suggests that the WP isn't about to be intimidated.

Singapore has had hot GRCs before but Aljunied 2011 shoots off the temperature scale. This isn't because the Opposition necessarily have a better chance here and now than in Eunos GRC in 1988 (when the PAP scraped through by 1.8 points).

No, this one is special because never before has a contest so perfectly embodied the fundamental, irreconcilable tension in Singapore's electoral politics.

Set aside the roughly 25 percent of voters at each end of the political spectrum — the partisans who will vote for the PAP and the Opposition irrespective of who's standing and who's won the debates. It's the middle 50 percent or so that ultimately decides the fate of Parliamentary seats.

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This broad middle ground, I sense, considers the PAP to be the natural party of government right now, on account of having a larger team of able, experienced and trustworthy administrators and a more detailed plan for Singapore than the Opposition. Swing voters also acknowledge that the PAP includes a handful of truly outstanding individuals, who they're glad are on the Singapore team (though most Singaporeans would not praise them too loudly, lest the PAP grow up proud and complacent; we are all Amy Chuas that way).

At the same time, middle-ground voters believe it's sensible to have checks and balances on PAP power. Since other institutions such as the press are stopped from providing that, they should send an Opposition presence into Parliament. They've also noted that, lately, the best heavyweights in the Opposition ranks are superior to the worst lightweights on the PAP side. Given a choice, they would pick the former at the expense of the latter — but that choice is usually not available.

In most other contests in this and previous GEs, the choice offered to swing voters made it easier for them to decide one way or another. Those inclined to vote for the Opposition could tell themselves that, well, the PAP guys weren't particularly likeable, so they deserve to be taken down a notch. Those leaning towards the PAP could silence the Opposition voice in their heads by saying that the Opposition candidates weren't impressive, even after giving allowance to their underdog status.

Aljunied 2011 removes these excuses. On the one side is a PAP team that's hard to dislike. A veteran former journalist, Zainul Abidin, who is genuinely popular and is being mentioned as a future Speaker of Parliament. An intriguing new candidate and possible future PM, Ong Ye Kung, who has spent quality time at the NTUC and shows a determination to work for workers. And an anchor minister, George Yeo, who has distinguished himself as one of Singapore's best ever foreign ministers. In the last GE, Yeo was the first Cabinet Minister to call a halt to the mudslinging against James Gomez, and in these polls he has continued to take the high road, denying snipers the pleasure of accusing him of gutter politics. Today, he called the WP A-team "worthy opponents".

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On the WP side, too, is a team that defies all the stereotypes. Fly-by-night opportunists who are dormant between elections? Low Thia Khiang is known as a hardworking grassroots MP. And his decision to leave his safe seat in Hougang for the fight of his life confirms yet again his steely idealism. Low calibre? In the early 1980s, Lee Kuan Yew likened the Opposition leaders to DC3 propeller planes while the PAP's were Boeing 707 jets. But in Chen Show Mao, the WP have a Dreamliner whose specifications match any high-flier in the PAP fleet. It's as if, like diligent children in paternalistic Singapore, Low's WP has taken note of every criticism the PAP has levelled at the Opposition and has now come back with an answer for everything.

Middle-of-the-road voters in Aljunied GRC must now feel the heat of the critical decision before them. It boils down to this twin conundrum:

Do they prize the goal of a stronger, better Opposition enough to sacrifice a set of outstanding present and potential PAP office holders, whose absence from government would be missed by Singaporeans?

Or do they treasure quality governance sufficiently to reject the worthiest set of Opposition candidates to have ever been offered to the electorate and whose victory would boost democratic politics?

The choice between good government and a strong opposition has been a perennial one. But never before has it been posed as starkly as now, in Aljunied GRC.

I don't know what Aljunied's voters are thinking about the momentous decision before them. But I can imagine what swing voters in other constituencies must be feeling:

Thank goodness we don't live in Aljunied.
 

Sideswipe

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PAP has polled 60-75% popular votes for last 30 years. Our middle ground has overwhelmingly voted for PAP in every GE. Can the Oppositions really win over the middle ground voters this time?
 

Cestbon

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Aljunied GRC , the voter need to decide. Just 5% from 2006 election vote jump from PAP to Opposition that the end of PAP in Aljunied.
5% make big different -5% fromm PAP add 5% to Opposition that 10% vote different in majority.
The 2 ministers in Aljunied must have big pressure. Maybe LKY will go to Aljunied for helping hand.
 

po2wq

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... A veteran former journalist, Zainul Abidin, who is genuinely popular and is being mentioned as a future Speaker of Parliament. An intriguing new candidate and possible future PM, Ong Ye Kung, who has spent quality time at the NTUC and shows a determination to work for workers. And an anchor minister, George Yeo, who has distinguished himself as one of Singapore's best ever foreign ministers ...
dun 4get ... dese burgers support ah loon in fixing peasants ...

u want dem 2 help ah loon 2 continue fixing u? ...


bestest ever 4eign minister? ... ah loon can take over n do his fixing there ... :o
 

Sideswipe

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Aljunied GRC , the voter need to decide. Just 5% from 2006 election vote jump from PAP to Opposition that the end of PAP in Aljunied.
5% make big different -5% fromm PAP add 5% to Opposition that 10% vote different in majority.


WP need to get that 5% from PAP 56% which mostly comprised of PAP iron votes. Those middle ground votes that WP can easily win over have already went over to WP last GE giving them 44%.

IMO, that 5% very very hard to get. I would classify that 5% under the "middle ground" very pro pap voters.
 

boman

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Agreed. It's that 5%. I wonder if things in the past 5 years would change these peoples' minds to vote for WP. That is the question.

WP need to get that 5% from PAP 56% which mostly comprised of PAP iron votes. Those middle ground votes that WP can easily win over have already went over to WP last GE giving them 44%.

IMO, that 5% very very hard to get. I would classify that 5% under the "middle ground" very pro pap voters.
 

ChaoPappyPoodle

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I see a minimum of 5% switch from PAPzis to WP base on PAPzis performance and policies over the past 5 years.

Oso have to account for gerrymandering which should work in favour of the PAPzis if they have done their homework. And when it comes to such things, it is likely that the PAPzis will have done a good job here.

So it's very open at the moment. What is sad is that the PAPzis have the main stream media on their side and this is a powerful vehicle to have in winning over voters still sitting on their fences.

On the side of WP, the PAP cannot possibly increase their votes based on their messages as the masses have been numbed by similar messages and rhetoric.

What this means is that WP has to win over the fence sitters. A minimum turnover of 5% is required. In my mind, the minority voters offer a good return if they can target and win over this segment of voters.

WP will be wise to provide subtitles in their rallies so that minority races will feel welcomed. WP is still seen as a largely Chinese party. If they can put in 30% of their efforts towards winning over minority voters then all will be well for WP in Aljunied.
 

kazuo

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Guess what, GY and his gang will import lock stock barrel LHL's brand of "fear politics" in the hustings. They will remind the pp ad nauseam about their track record, and then threaten their estate will lose its valuation if it falls into opp hands, yada yada.

i hope the pocket of pp that gerrymandering has caused WP to lose will not come back to hurt LTK, that wd really be unfortunate. Let's hope they can sway the new ones grafted in from Marine Parade
 

wikiphile

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Guess what, GY and his gang will import lock stock barrel LHL's brand of "fear politics" in the hustings. They will remind the pp ad nauseam about their track record, and then threaten their estate will lose its valuation if it falls into opp hands, yada yada.

i hope the pocket of pp that gerrymandering has caused WP to lose will not come back to hurt LTK, that wd really be unfortunate. Let's hope they can sway the new ones grafted in from Marine Parade

Last night the PAP spin machine on wheels was making its rounds and blasting looped recordings over the loudspeakers.

When they passed by us, i was at a kopitiam and everybody just looked blankly at them save for a few grassroots dogs who waved at Ong Ye Kung sitting on the left seat.

Sorry if i didn't catch what they said but its just the same old crap story, when will WP come??? I want to wave and cheer and if i'm very very very lucky get to shake hands with either one of the Big 3? :biggrin:
 

dankos

Guest
Last night the PAP spin machine on wheels was making its rounds and blasting looped recordings over the loudspeakers.

When they passed by us, i was at a kopitiam and everybody just looked blankly at them save for a few grassroots dogs who waved at Ong Ye Kung sitting on the left seat.

Sorry if i didn't catch what they said but its just the same old crap story, when will WP come??? I want to wave and cheer and if i'm very very very lucky get to shake hands with either one of the Big 3? :biggrin:

bro can i humbly suggest 1 thing. when u see any oppo and their helpers, shake hand with them n offer some words of encouragement. it aint easy being in oppo. so encourage all oppo lah.

just a suggestion. :o
 

wikiphile

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bro can i humbly suggest 1 thing. when u see any oppo and their helpers, shake hand with them n offer some words of encouragement. it aint easy being in oppo. so encourage all oppo lah.

just a suggestion. :o

Bro you echoed my thoughts. Being an opposition politician singapore is a hard thing, being an opposition MP is an even harder thing. The responsibilities and sacrifices made by them is a heavy burden. I certainly will do something like that when I get to see and talk to them
 

kazuo

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haha, this reminds me. Was on my way to dinner last night, saw a bunch of monkeys dressed in white scurrying about, trying to catch everyone's hands. When one of them came towards me, I couldn't siam fast enough, so lanlan extended my hand (gentlemanly mah, must reciprocate but hypocritical i know). I didn't look him in the eye.
 
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Qantas

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..............

wonder if these sky blue colour umbrella are for sale? i want to buy some to show my support for Workers Party :smile:

So funny the picture. In the background there is a sign saying lightning risk and WP still going against the lightning.
 

Narong Wongwan

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haha, this reminds me. Was on my way to dinner last night, saw a bunch of monkeys dressed in white scurrying about, trying to catch everyone's hands. When one of them came towards me, I couldn't siam fast enough, so lanlan extended my hand (gentlemanly mah, must reciprocate but hypocritical i know). I didn't look him in the eye.

if this was in another country like US or even HK.....many people will question the white guys upfront....singaporeans just too nice and non confrontational
 
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yellow_people

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WP need to get that 5% from PAP 56% which mostly comprised of PAP iron votes. Those middle ground votes that WP can easily win over have already went over to WP last GE giving them 44%.

IMO, that 5% very very hard to get. I would classify that 5% under the "middle ground" very pro pap voters.

Changes in voters' demographics in Aljunied GRC "not very big": George Yeo
By Shaffiq Alkhatib, 13 March 2011

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a community event on Sunday, he pointed out that his constituency has lost some 30,000 predominantly-Chinese voters to Ang Mo Kio and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRCs.

In turn, Aljunied GRC gained about 20,000 voters from Kaki Bukit ward, which is currently under Marine Parade GRC.

Mr Yeo said: "The demographics of Kaki Bukit are like these: they're mainly three-room flats and many rental flats as well. When I looked after this area before, it was the poorest part of Kembangan. Having such a set of demographics is a political reality. There's a high concentration of Malays and Indians, fewer Chinese in this area..."

Mr Yeo was also asked about the perceptions by some analysts that the disproportionately large Malay population in Kaki Bukit ward could favour the ruling party.


http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1116198/1/.html


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seebaysong

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....

Middle-of-the-road voters in Aljunied GRC must now feel the heat of the critical decision before them. It boils down to this twin conundrum:

Do they prize the goal of a stronger, better Opposition enough to sacrifice a set of outstanding present and potential PAP office holders, whose absence from government would be missed by Singaporeans?

....

Joker got it wrong here... Don't think the incumbent will be missed :biggrin:
 

jw5

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Aljunied GRC , the voter need to decide. Just 5% from 2006 election vote jump from PAP to Opposition that the end of PAP in Aljunied.
5% make big different -5% fromm PAP add 5% to Opposition that 10% vote different in majority.
The 2 ministers in Aljunied must have big pressure. Maybe LKY will go to Aljunied for helping hand.

He will need a few helping hands just to help him get there to lend his helping hand.
 

wikiphile

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Generous Asset
bro can i humbly suggest 1 thing. when u see any oppo and their helpers, shake hand with them n offer some words of encouragement. it aint easy being in oppo. so encourage all oppo lah.

just a suggestion. :o

Hi Bro Dankos, i was just talking to Lee Lilian and told her to keep up the good fight ahead of her! What a nice lady! :biggrin:
 

konstandy

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haha, this reminds me. Was on my way to dinner last night, saw a bunch of monkeys dressed in white scurrying about, trying to catch everyone's hands. When one of them came towards me, I couldn't siam fast enough, so lanlan extended my hand (gentlemanly mah, must reciprocate but hypocritical i know). I didn't look him in the eye.

wasted u should have put your hand into your cheebye or arse than shake their hands!! :biggrin:
 
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