SPH’s socialpolitical site singapolitics.sg published an article on Thursday (‘Research firms say PAP in strong position; believe next general election will be sooner rather than later‘, 14 May) saying that the ground is now sweet for the PAP.
It also said that the government is “looking increasingly likely” to call for a GE this year.
SPH cited 2 recent reports released by research firms, BMI Research and Blackbox Research.
BMI said the governing PAP’s Budget this year “suggests that the party may look to hold elections before the next Budget is introduced, and quite possibly before the end of 2015”. BMI was referring to a few government measures announced, which aim to strengthen Singapore’s social safety nets. The measures include the Silver Support Scheme that will give cash handouts to low-income elderly. Other Budget measures included easing costs for middle-income households, for instance by reducing maid levies for some families.
BMI said that these decisions are aimed directly at the middle income and senior households that comprise the “two most critical voter demographic groups”. In other words, SPH thinks that such measures will help PAP to win more votes from the middle income and senior households.
SPH also cited Blackbox Research which said last month that “there has not been a better time for the PAP to begin planning for an early election”.
“Over the last year we have seen steady improvement in community satisfaction on issues that have troubled the Government in recent times and the overall satisfaction index is now eight points higher than it was 12 months ago,” Blackbox said.
Capitalise on the passing of Lee Kuan Yew
Both research firms think that the death of Lee Kuan Yew could have an impact on the timing and results of the next GE.
“Elections this year would also allow the Government to capitalise on the inextricable link between founder Lee Kuan Yew and the PAP,” said BMI.
Blackbox’s observation was that “the passing of Lee Kuan Yew has also resulted in the biggest decline in the number of Singaporeans who think that the PAP’s vote in the next general election will be lower than 2011”.
Indeed, to capitalize on the passing of Mr Lee so as to get maximum number of “sympathy votes” for PAP, Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen recently announced on 7 May that there will be a special aerial flypast by the RSAF’s Black Knights this National Day Parade as a tribute to the late Mr Lee.
Dr Ng wrote on this Facebook page, “The Black Knights will thunder over the Padang, lined up as five stars watching over this nation he founded; representing the ideals that Mr Lee spent his life pushing for – democracy, peace, progress, justice and equality.”
“It will be a fitting tribute to Mr Lee, for all of us to look up and beyond and remember his wish to keep Singapore going,” Dr Ng added.
Hot button issues addressed
In its report, BMI, noted that the Government had already addressed hot button issues surfaced in the last GE, such as rapid immigration growth and high housing prices.
“While the pace of immigration adjustment has been deemed to be too rapid for some small business owners, other voters are likely to find that the Government’s measures reflect a party that is more in touch with the electorate than in the years leading up to the 2011 general election,” BMI said.
It also noted that the introduction of cooling measures to the property market has helped to bolster the image of the PAP government.
Blackbox said its survey found that satisfaction with the Government’s performance is higher than last year, while Singaporeans are also more optimistic about the economy, personal finances, and about the way things are going in Singapore.
BMI thinks PAP will still be able to form a strong majority in parliament in the next GE while Blackbox thinks PAP will be able to “improve on their 2011 election result”.
In Blackbox’s poll, 80% of respondents – the highest number in the past year – said the PAP’s vote share will remain the same or be higher than 2011.
PAP thought they would win Aljunied GRC in 2011 GE
It’s not known how accurate BMI and Blackbox’s predictions on the next GE’s results will be but certainly the 2 research firms are “singing” what PAP and SPH will like to hear.
But no one will really know the results until the GE actually takes place.
In the last GE, PAP members were also very confident of winning Aljunied GRC prior to the elections. However, when the results were announced, PAP lost Aljunied GRC to the surprise of even their own candidates.
One of them, former Cabinet minister Lim Hwee Hua told the media that she was caught by surprise at the “deep level of resentment” felt towards the PAP [Link]. She said, “It is a surprise for us that the resentment is so deep and the unhappiness is so deep.”
She said it was only during the General Election campaign, that “we began to fully appreciate the extent of the unhappiness and resentment towards the Government.”
“I think people still feel that they are not being listened to, and that they are not being listened to sufficiently; that the party continues to make policies using its own intellect and reasoning … and occasionally seems to be arrogant and not wanting to listen even when views are offered. So it’s a varying degree of unhappiness,” said Ms Lim.
A year after 2011 GE, another candidate former Cabinet Minister George Yeo told reporters in an interview [Link] that the nature of leadership around the world has changed. With the rise of social media and a smartphone in every pocket, “if a leader puts on airs and pretends, he loses credibility”.
“In the old days you’re protected by ritual, by hypocrisy, sometimes by ignorance. Today it’s no longer possible. If a picture is too perfect, you know it can’t be real,” Mr Yeo said cryptically.
He also observes that political leaders, in general, are facing rising cynicism among younger citizens towards them and the political system. There is thus an urgent need to build trust so that leaders can craft policies that strike a balance between individual needs and the collective good, he said.
“If people feel that, in the end ‘I’m in your heart’, they’re less likely to question every decision you make because they know it is for their good and the collective good. But if I begin to suspect you, that you’re in it for yourself, then I will be much more insistent upon my needs being met,” Mr Yeo added.
So, what do you think? Do you agree with the reports from the 2 research firms, cited by SPH that the ground is now sweet for PAP?
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/05/16/sph-cites-reports-saying-ground-sweet-for-pap-now/
It also said that the government is “looking increasingly likely” to call for a GE this year.
SPH cited 2 recent reports released by research firms, BMI Research and Blackbox Research.
BMI said the governing PAP’s Budget this year “suggests that the party may look to hold elections before the next Budget is introduced, and quite possibly before the end of 2015”. BMI was referring to a few government measures announced, which aim to strengthen Singapore’s social safety nets. The measures include the Silver Support Scheme that will give cash handouts to low-income elderly. Other Budget measures included easing costs for middle-income households, for instance by reducing maid levies for some families.
BMI said that these decisions are aimed directly at the middle income and senior households that comprise the “two most critical voter demographic groups”. In other words, SPH thinks that such measures will help PAP to win more votes from the middle income and senior households.
SPH also cited Blackbox Research which said last month that “there has not been a better time for the PAP to begin planning for an early election”.
“Over the last year we have seen steady improvement in community satisfaction on issues that have troubled the Government in recent times and the overall satisfaction index is now eight points higher than it was 12 months ago,” Blackbox said.
Capitalise on the passing of Lee Kuan Yew
Both research firms think that the death of Lee Kuan Yew could have an impact on the timing and results of the next GE.
“Elections this year would also allow the Government to capitalise on the inextricable link between founder Lee Kuan Yew and the PAP,” said BMI.
Blackbox’s observation was that “the passing of Lee Kuan Yew has also resulted in the biggest decline in the number of Singaporeans who think that the PAP’s vote in the next general election will be lower than 2011”.
Indeed, to capitalize on the passing of Mr Lee so as to get maximum number of “sympathy votes” for PAP, Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen recently announced on 7 May that there will be a special aerial flypast by the RSAF’s Black Knights this National Day Parade as a tribute to the late Mr Lee.
Dr Ng wrote on this Facebook page, “The Black Knights will thunder over the Padang, lined up as five stars watching over this nation he founded; representing the ideals that Mr Lee spent his life pushing for – democracy, peace, progress, justice and equality.”
“It will be a fitting tribute to Mr Lee, for all of us to look up and beyond and remember his wish to keep Singapore going,” Dr Ng added.
Hot button issues addressed
In its report, BMI, noted that the Government had already addressed hot button issues surfaced in the last GE, such as rapid immigration growth and high housing prices.
“While the pace of immigration adjustment has been deemed to be too rapid for some small business owners, other voters are likely to find that the Government’s measures reflect a party that is more in touch with the electorate than in the years leading up to the 2011 general election,” BMI said.
It also noted that the introduction of cooling measures to the property market has helped to bolster the image of the PAP government.
Blackbox said its survey found that satisfaction with the Government’s performance is higher than last year, while Singaporeans are also more optimistic about the economy, personal finances, and about the way things are going in Singapore.
BMI thinks PAP will still be able to form a strong majority in parliament in the next GE while Blackbox thinks PAP will be able to “improve on their 2011 election result”.
In Blackbox’s poll, 80% of respondents – the highest number in the past year – said the PAP’s vote share will remain the same or be higher than 2011.
PAP thought they would win Aljunied GRC in 2011 GE
It’s not known how accurate BMI and Blackbox’s predictions on the next GE’s results will be but certainly the 2 research firms are “singing” what PAP and SPH will like to hear.
But no one will really know the results until the GE actually takes place.
In the last GE, PAP members were also very confident of winning Aljunied GRC prior to the elections. However, when the results were announced, PAP lost Aljunied GRC to the surprise of even their own candidates.
One of them, former Cabinet minister Lim Hwee Hua told the media that she was caught by surprise at the “deep level of resentment” felt towards the PAP [Link]. She said, “It is a surprise for us that the resentment is so deep and the unhappiness is so deep.”
She said it was only during the General Election campaign, that “we began to fully appreciate the extent of the unhappiness and resentment towards the Government.”
“I think people still feel that they are not being listened to, and that they are not being listened to sufficiently; that the party continues to make policies using its own intellect and reasoning … and occasionally seems to be arrogant and not wanting to listen even when views are offered. So it’s a varying degree of unhappiness,” said Ms Lim.
A year after 2011 GE, another candidate former Cabinet Minister George Yeo told reporters in an interview [Link] that the nature of leadership around the world has changed. With the rise of social media and a smartphone in every pocket, “if a leader puts on airs and pretends, he loses credibility”.
“In the old days you’re protected by ritual, by hypocrisy, sometimes by ignorance. Today it’s no longer possible. If a picture is too perfect, you know it can’t be real,” Mr Yeo said cryptically.
He also observes that political leaders, in general, are facing rising cynicism among younger citizens towards them and the political system. There is thus an urgent need to build trust so that leaders can craft policies that strike a balance between individual needs and the collective good, he said.
“If people feel that, in the end ‘I’m in your heart’, they’re less likely to question every decision you make because they know it is for their good and the collective good. But if I begin to suspect you, that you’re in it for yourself, then I will be much more insistent upon my needs being met,” Mr Yeo added.
So, what do you think? Do you agree with the reports from the 2 research firms, cited by SPH that the ground is now sweet for PAP?
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/05/16/sph-cites-reports-saying-ground-sweet-for-pap-now/
