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Can we predict the world's next pandemic?
30 Oct, 2017 10:07am
5 minutes to read
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A plague epidemic in Madagascar has become responsible for the death of 57 people, with cases of the highly infectious disease doubling to a total 561 cases over the last week, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). / AP
news.com.au
By: Kirrily Schwarz
Advertise with NZME.
"Plague, though terrifying, is nothing new in Madagascar, where about 600 cases are reported annually," the World Health Organisation said on its website.
However, WHO officials warned there is "something different" about this outbreak, and "health officials couldn't explain it".
Ibrahima Soce Fall, Regional Emergency Director for Africa, of the World Health Organization, WHO, speaks during a press conference, about the Update on the plague situation in Madagascar. Photo / AP
TRAVEL
Black Death warning in holiday paradise
23 Oct, 2017 4:31pm
3 minutes to read
Meanwhile, the US Agency for International Development has spent the past eight years cataloguing threats, identifying 1000 new viruses.
However, experts estimate 99.9 per cent of viruses are still unknown.
A child wears a face mask at a school in Antananarivo, Madagascar. Photo / AP
One example is the SARS virus - a severe form of pneumonia - which broke out in China after a researcher accidentally caught it in a lab in 2002.
Another is HIV, which has claimed an estimated 35 million lives in the past 40 years.
Probably the most famous of all is the Spanish Influenza pandemic, which killed up to 100 million people - or 5 per cent of the world's population - in 1918.
The other variable is changes to possible treatments - which vary widely depending whether the outbreak is bacterial or viral.
Vaccines are undoubtedly the best way to treat viruses, because viruses require living hosts to multiply and can only really be fought off by the body's own immune system, but vaccines are a prevention, not a cure.
Bacteria, on the other hand, can be effectively treated with antibiotics - however, health experts warn an "antibiotic apocalypse" is fast approaching, as overuse of drugs such as penicillin lead to a significant increase in drug-resistant infections.
DOES SCIENCE HAVE A WAY FORWARD?
Dr Geoghegan thinks the best way forward is to focus just on the "fault lines".
The Atlantic reports that means regions where people are more likely to be exposed to animal viruses because they are chopping down forests, setting up dense animal markets, hunting wild creatures for meat, or moving around a lot because of political instability.
However, others argue global scientific efforts shouldn't be so readily dismissed.
Professor Jonna Mazet, global director for PREDICT, a European Union organisation that aims to prepare for the "domino effect" in crisis situations, told Ed Yong it's too early to know how things will pan out.
She said if the same complaints had been made about meteorology a century ago, "we wouldn't have created the data that lets us forecast the weather, which we can do pretty well now".
30 Oct, 2017 10:07am
5 minutes to read
Mute
Current Time0:29
/
Duration Time0:49
Loaded: 0%
Progress: 0%
A plague epidemic in Madagascar has become responsible for the death of 57 people, with cases of the highly infectious disease doubling to a total 561 cases over the last week, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). / AP
news.com.au
By: Kirrily Schwarz
Advertise with NZME.
"Plague, though terrifying, is nothing new in Madagascar, where about 600 cases are reported annually," the World Health Organisation said on its website.
However, WHO officials warned there is "something different" about this outbreak, and "health officials couldn't explain it".
Ibrahima Soce Fall, Regional Emergency Director for Africa, of the World Health Organization, WHO, speaks during a press conference, about the Update on the plague situation in Madagascar. Photo / AP
TRAVEL
Black Death warning in holiday paradise
23 Oct, 2017 4:31pm
3 minutes to read
Meanwhile, the US Agency for International Development has spent the past eight years cataloguing threats, identifying 1000 new viruses.
However, experts estimate 99.9 per cent of viruses are still unknown.
A child wears a face mask at a school in Antananarivo, Madagascar. Photo / AP
One example is the SARS virus - a severe form of pneumonia - which broke out in China after a researcher accidentally caught it in a lab in 2002.
Another is HIV, which has claimed an estimated 35 million lives in the past 40 years.
Probably the most famous of all is the Spanish Influenza pandemic, which killed up to 100 million people - or 5 per cent of the world's population - in 1918.
The other variable is changes to possible treatments - which vary widely depending whether the outbreak is bacterial or viral.
Vaccines are undoubtedly the best way to treat viruses, because viruses require living hosts to multiply and can only really be fought off by the body's own immune system, but vaccines are a prevention, not a cure.
Bacteria, on the other hand, can be effectively treated with antibiotics - however, health experts warn an "antibiotic apocalypse" is fast approaching, as overuse of drugs such as penicillin lead to a significant increase in drug-resistant infections.
DOES SCIENCE HAVE A WAY FORWARD?
Dr Geoghegan thinks the best way forward is to focus just on the "fault lines".
The Atlantic reports that means regions where people are more likely to be exposed to animal viruses because they are chopping down forests, setting up dense animal markets, hunting wild creatures for meat, or moving around a lot because of political instability.
However, others argue global scientific efforts shouldn't be so readily dismissed.
Professor Jonna Mazet, global director for PREDICT, a European Union organisation that aims to prepare for the "domino effect" in crisis situations, told Ed Yong it's too early to know how things will pan out.
She said if the same complaints had been made about meteorology a century ago, "we wouldn't have created the data that lets us forecast the weather, which we can do pretty well now".