Snap elections rumours
Could the PAP be preparing for early elections -- more than 3 years before they are due in 2012?
Why there won’t be snap elections
<cite class="auth"> Channel NewsAsia - Saturday, November 15</cite>
SINGAPORE: As economic clouds continue to darken, the rumour mills have gone into overdrive with speculation that the government could call for early elections — more than three years before they are due by February 2012.
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The poll talk was sparked by news that the Elections Department had designated schools as polling stations and begun sending out letters last month to notify civil servants that they had been selected as election officials.
Despite an Elections Department spokesman rejecting suggestions that the plans were an indication of early elections — and the fact that such "routine activities" were carried out 18 months before the previous General Election in 2006 — some observers believe that a snap election could be on the cards.
They bank their belief on how the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) — whose party cadre meet this weekend for their annual conference — might want to get the polls over with in order to concentrate on managing the ongoing economic crisis.
"The thinking within the Establishment is that voters are unlikely to test the waters with a crisis looming," said former veteran journalist P N Balji.
Yet, the last time that the PAP government called for early elections in August 1991 — less than three years after the 1988 General Election — the move partially backfired, with the Opposition gaining an unprecedented four seats in Parliament.
Said political scientist Bilveer Singh: "Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong (who had taken office as prime minister in November 1990) wanted a mandate for himself and his government ... Unfortunately, the ground was not as sweet as he had assumed."
There are also suggestions that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is looking for an even stronger mandate for his government, which won 66.6 per cent of the votes in the 2006 General Election.
Given that Singapore is now in a crisis mode of sorts, some political pundits may be tempted to draw parallels with the 2001 elections. Then, the Mr Goh—led PAP government called for elections just two months after the 911 terrorist attacks, which plunged the world into what was essentially a security crisis that stifled the global economy.
The ruling party went on to claim a massive victory, sweeping 75.3 per cent of the popular vote. But comparisons between 2001 and this year may be misguided. While the attacks on New York’s Twin Towers sent people worldwide yearning for strong leadership to preserve national security, the Singapore government is dealing with a very different kind of creature this time round: An unravelling, unpredictable financial crisis — described as the worst in a century — that governments around the world are still figuring out how to deal with.
The state of the economy alone is enough reason why the PAP government is unlikely to call for elections anytime soon. But two other factors make that prospect a non—starter: The apparent dearth of new political talents and the prime minister himself.
ECONOMY, ECONOMY, ECONOMY
Notwithstanding the fact that the previous General Election was held almost five years earlier in January 1997, the government went to the 2001 polls with much credit for the way it steered the Singapore economy while neighbouring economies floundered under the Asian financial crisis.
Said Assoc Prof Singh: "In the Singapore context, the most important issue is always the economy — that’s fundamental."
Singapore has yet to feel the full force of the ongoing crisis but there are already signs that it would be ugly and long—drawn. Apart from sharp dips in export figures, job cuts have already hit the manufacturing, finance and banking sectors.
With unemployment expected to rise, Singaporeans are bracing themselves for more bad news on the job front.
The last thing that Singapore needs now is for the PAP government to be distracted by intensive preparations for an election that might prove divisive.
But by the same token, Nominated Member of Parliament Siew Kum Hong pointed out this could be a window of opportunity for the PAP government to seek a new term to concentrate on managing the economy.
Mr Siew reasoned that if the PAP government estimates the global economic situation to remain as bad — or turn even worse — after next year, it would make perfect sense to go to the polls within the next few months — possibly after May when the Budget measures to be unveiled in February would have taken effect.
But Assoc Prof Singh reiterated that the current ground conditions are not ideal, adding that the Lehman Minibonds saga and the uncertainty over the Integrated Resorts could crop up during the hustings.
He added: "There may be a backlash. The focus of the government today is, and must be, to get the economy right."
THE HUNT IS STILL ON
The PAP has traditionally used the elections to refresh its ranks. And as recent as between February and April, the Big Three of Singapore politics — PM Lee, SM Goh and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew — voiced concerns on separate occasions over the dearth of fourth—generation leaders.
In fact, within two weeks after a Cabinet reshuffle in late March, the prime minister spoke publicly on the topic thrice.
So while the PAP has reportedly already identified 100 possible candidates, the timing of its leaders’ pronouncements hint that the talent scouting is still very much a work in progress.
Also, prospective candidates would need a year or two to be put through their paces and acquaint themselves with the ground, including spending time with the PAP’s grassroots organisations.
With the elections not due for another three years, there is no compelling reason to rush through this new team at this stage, political observers noted.
BAPTISM OF FIRE
Ultimately, the decision to call for elections rests with one man — PM Lee, who was once described by a Straits Times columnist as "happiest when he is creating policies".
With his sharp intellect and economic rigour, one would expect that PM Lee, who took office in 2004, would rather face the challenge of leading the Republic out of what would be the first national crisis facing his team — than invest considerable time and effort in the heat and dust of electioneering.
Said Mr Balji: "It’s a great opportunity to show to the people how the team selected by the prime minister two years ago can manage a crisis. Wouldn’t that be the best argument to put to the voters, that ’Look, we have handled the crisis’?"
In fact, the PAP would "walk through" the next two or three elections thereafter, Assoc Prof Singh pointed out.
He added: "If I’m sitting in the Istana, I’d rather first wait for the damage, then take damage control and overcome the damage. My credibility will be high when I go to the voters."
— TODAY/so
