Slowing the flow of foreign workers to S'pore
Imagine living in a Singapore where foreigners could exceed three million and form half the workforce by 2030. Can the flood be checked? Yes, said an economist not averse to slaughtering sacred cows. Professor Hui Weng Tat's prescription: lower growth targets; increase productivity; offer dual citizenship to retain local talent.
By Sue-Ann Chia, Senior Political Correspondent
It is inevitable that foreigner numbers will continue to swell but the crucial thing is how many the country can accommodate and how fast it wants to grow, says Prof Hui. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG
SINGAPORE could have gone 'overboard' in its quest to maximise growth over the last two years before it was hit by the recession.
Too many jobs were created which led to an influx of foreigners to fill the positions too fast, too soon.
The momentum has now ground to a halt because of the economic crisis.
But if the pace picks up again, Singaporeans could end up being outnumbered by foreigners in the workplace.
To economist Hui Weng Tat, this scenario is no idle speculation or dire prophecy. It is grounded on hard numbers of foreign worker inflow, which he has been researching since the mid-1980s.
According to his latest projections, there could be more than three million foreigners working here by 2030, forming half the workforce. That will jump to almost 10 million by 2050, making up 75 per cent of employees here.
It is a frightening leap from the current figure of one million, or 36 per cent of the workforce.
These sobering figures explain why Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and other government leaders have emphasised the need to reduce the country's reliance on foreign workers.
To drive home his point, PM Lee has said on at least three occasions since August that he could not imagine the foreign population doubling to two million.
Among the issues that the Economic Strategies Committee headed by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is looking into, as it considers new ways to grow the Singapore economy, is that of relying less on foreign workers.
Prof Hui is in one of the work groups set up by the committee.
But, seriously, can the flow of foreigners be slowed down?
Yes, says Prof Hui, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. The mild-mannered man has no qualms about breaking what others might consider policy taboos. His three suggestions:
One, tighten the tap on the flow of low-skilled foreigners into Singapore.
Two, discard the current economic model of growth at all costs.
Three, offer dual citizenship to reduce the brain drain, as at least 5,000 Singaporeans seek permanent residency or citizenship in other countries each year.
Foreign connections
WHEN Singapore began its industrialisation programme in the 1960s, it had to rely heavily on foreign workers, mainly from Malaysia, as it did not have sufficient manpower.
As the economy grew in the 1970s, so did the number of foreign workers as it took in foreigners from more countries as a stop-gap measure to fill the labour shortage.
Between 1974 and 1982, the foreign population more than doubled from 46,000 to over 100,000. It was too much, too fast.
In 1982, the Government decided to have a local workforce by 1991 - a plan that was doomed to fail.
It was unrealistic to expect Singapore to survive without foreigners, as economic demands required the retention of foreign workers. The levy and quota system was introduced to control their numbers.
Now, these workers are very much a part of Singapore's labour landscape, perhaps too much, especially in the last two years.
Commenting on the spike which has become a bone of contention among many Singaporeans, Prof Hui says: 'Their numbers suddenly surged. That surprised everybody.'
This was attributed to the extraordinary growth in 2007 and first half of last year, which led to record-busting job creation of more than 200,000 each year.
Of the 235,000 jobs added in 2007, six in 10 went to foreigners. The ratio rose last year, with foreigners taking seven in 10 of the 222,000 new jobs.
This means that almost 300,000 foreigners flocked here to take up jobs in the past two years, pushing their population past the one million mark for the first time.
There are no official figures on the types of jobs taken by foreigners.
But, Prof Hui says candidly: 'There is a realisation that too many have been brought in over the last two years.
'I would expect that quite a number of them were low-skilled workers, which caused not only a depression of wages but also some social problems too.'
Housing the foreigners also became a controversial issue when residents protested against the siting of dormitories in their neighbourhoods.
The influx of higher-skilled foreigners here also had an impact, the economist notes, citing the increase in property prices as many of them rented or bought homes here.
In fact, foreigner numbers were so unexpectedly huge that they skewed his 2004 projections. Singapore's foreign working population hit the level projected for 2019 in 2009, 10 years ahead of schedule.
It is thus not surprising that now, as in 1982, the Government is looking at reducing the country's reliance on foreigners. The only difference this time is its recognition that they are here to stay.
Singapore, Prof Hui says, has the third-largest share of foreign-born persons in its population of any country, after the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
It is inevitable that foreigner numbers will continue to swell, but the key is how many the country can accommodate and how fast it wants to grow.
'Maybe we went overboard in trying to maximise growth... in a sense, it's fortunate that we have the recession that caused a rethink of this policy,' he says.
Imagine living in a Singapore where foreigners could exceed three million and form half the workforce by 2030. Can the flood be checked? Yes, said an economist not averse to slaughtering sacred cows. Professor Hui Weng Tat's prescription: lower growth targets; increase productivity; offer dual citizenship to retain local talent.
By Sue-Ann Chia, Senior Political Correspondent
It is inevitable that foreigner numbers will continue to swell but the crucial thing is how many the country can accommodate and how fast it wants to grow, says Prof Hui. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG
SINGAPORE could have gone 'overboard' in its quest to maximise growth over the last two years before it was hit by the recession.
Too many jobs were created which led to an influx of foreigners to fill the positions too fast, too soon.
The momentum has now ground to a halt because of the economic crisis.
But if the pace picks up again, Singaporeans could end up being outnumbered by foreigners in the workplace.
To economist Hui Weng Tat, this scenario is no idle speculation or dire prophecy. It is grounded on hard numbers of foreign worker inflow, which he has been researching since the mid-1980s.
According to his latest projections, there could be more than three million foreigners working here by 2030, forming half the workforce. That will jump to almost 10 million by 2050, making up 75 per cent of employees here.
It is a frightening leap from the current figure of one million, or 36 per cent of the workforce.
These sobering figures explain why Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and other government leaders have emphasised the need to reduce the country's reliance on foreign workers.
To drive home his point, PM Lee has said on at least three occasions since August that he could not imagine the foreign population doubling to two million.
Among the issues that the Economic Strategies Committee headed by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is looking into, as it considers new ways to grow the Singapore economy, is that of relying less on foreign workers.
Prof Hui is in one of the work groups set up by the committee.
But, seriously, can the flow of foreigners be slowed down?
Yes, says Prof Hui, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. The mild-mannered man has no qualms about breaking what others might consider policy taboos. His three suggestions:
One, tighten the tap on the flow of low-skilled foreigners into Singapore.
Two, discard the current economic model of growth at all costs.
Three, offer dual citizenship to reduce the brain drain, as at least 5,000 Singaporeans seek permanent residency or citizenship in other countries each year.
Foreign connections
WHEN Singapore began its industrialisation programme in the 1960s, it had to rely heavily on foreign workers, mainly from Malaysia, as it did not have sufficient manpower.
As the economy grew in the 1970s, so did the number of foreign workers as it took in foreigners from more countries as a stop-gap measure to fill the labour shortage.
Between 1974 and 1982, the foreign population more than doubled from 46,000 to over 100,000. It was too much, too fast.
In 1982, the Government decided to have a local workforce by 1991 - a plan that was doomed to fail.
It was unrealistic to expect Singapore to survive without foreigners, as economic demands required the retention of foreign workers. The levy and quota system was introduced to control their numbers.
Now, these workers are very much a part of Singapore's labour landscape, perhaps too much, especially in the last two years.
Commenting on the spike which has become a bone of contention among many Singaporeans, Prof Hui says: 'Their numbers suddenly surged. That surprised everybody.'
This was attributed to the extraordinary growth in 2007 and first half of last year, which led to record-busting job creation of more than 200,000 each year.
Of the 235,000 jobs added in 2007, six in 10 went to foreigners. The ratio rose last year, with foreigners taking seven in 10 of the 222,000 new jobs.
This means that almost 300,000 foreigners flocked here to take up jobs in the past two years, pushing their population past the one million mark for the first time.
There are no official figures on the types of jobs taken by foreigners.
But, Prof Hui says candidly: 'There is a realisation that too many have been brought in over the last two years.
'I would expect that quite a number of them were low-skilled workers, which caused not only a depression of wages but also some social problems too.'
Housing the foreigners also became a controversial issue when residents protested against the siting of dormitories in their neighbourhoods.
The influx of higher-skilled foreigners here also had an impact, the economist notes, citing the increase in property prices as many of them rented or bought homes here.
In fact, foreigner numbers were so unexpectedly huge that they skewed his 2004 projections. Singapore's foreign working population hit the level projected for 2019 in 2009, 10 years ahead of schedule.
It is thus not surprising that now, as in 1982, the Government is looking at reducing the country's reliance on foreigners. The only difference this time is its recognition that they are here to stay.
Singapore, Prof Hui says, has the third-largest share of foreign-born persons in its population of any country, after the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
It is inevitable that foreigner numbers will continue to swell, but the key is how many the country can accommodate and how fast it wants to grow.
'Maybe we went overboard in trying to maximise growth... in a sense, it's fortunate that we have the recession that caused a rethink of this policy,' he says.
