The Gov is expected to depreciate the Sing dollar to rein on sharp decline in export thus fuelling inflation further. This is a double whammy for Singaporeans especially those in the lower-income group as they faces paycut or uemployment with mounting inflation.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=44124bdb-60a4-41d2-8100-3e5c16e0b29c
PREVIEW-Singapore Jan exports to drop 32.7 pct y/y
Mon, Feb 16 2009, 01:57 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Singapore's non-oil exports in January are expected to drop by the biggest margin since September 2001 on the back of collapsing global demand for electronics, mirroring sharp declines in Taiwan and China.
Non-oil domestic exports may have tumbled 32.7 percent from a year ago, according to a median forecast from five economists. Adjusted for seasonal factors, exports were likely to be unchanged from December, the average forecast showed.
"Singapore's weakness has been echoing data around the world," said David Cohen, a senior economist at Action Economics.
Exports from Taiwan sank more than 44 percent in January, the second month of record declines, while China exports fell 17.5 percent last month.
Singapore, like other Asian economies, relies on the rest of the world to buy its products, but the worst financial crisis in 80 years battered consumer sentiment in key markets.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asian economist at HSBC, said he expected non-oil domestic exports to decline for the ninth consecutive month in January on a year-on-year basis and "the worst so far" since a 31 percent fall in September 2001.
"The base effect is not helpful and the earlier than normal Chinese new year will have had an additional depressing effect," he said.
The poor performance has led some economists to predict monetary policy easing before the central bank's next official meeting in April. The bank uses the Singapore dollar as its main monetary policy tool by managing it against an undisclosed basket of currencies.
Singapore's export-dependent economy shrank an annualised seasonally adjusted 16.9 percent in the October-December period, the worst ever quarterly drop, and the government believes gross domestic product could decline by as much as 5 percent this year.
Forecasts for Singapore's non-oil exports in Jan:
Percentage change
vs Dec 08* vs Jan 08
Action Economics 0.0 -35.0
IFR Markets ~ - 36.5
HSBC ~ -30.0
Standard Chartered +1.0 -28.8
Forecast Ltd -1.0 -32.7
-----------------------------------------------
Median 0.0 -32.7
High +1.0 -36.5
Low -1.0 -28.8
* Seasonally adjusted
~ Not available
(Reporting by Nopporn Wong-Anan; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=44124bdb-60a4-41d2-8100-3e5c16e0b29c
PREVIEW-Singapore Jan exports to drop 32.7 pct y/y
Mon, Feb 16 2009, 01:57 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Singapore's non-oil exports in January are expected to drop by the biggest margin since September 2001 on the back of collapsing global demand for electronics, mirroring sharp declines in Taiwan and China.
Non-oil domestic exports may have tumbled 32.7 percent from a year ago, according to a median forecast from five economists. Adjusted for seasonal factors, exports were likely to be unchanged from December, the average forecast showed.
"Singapore's weakness has been echoing data around the world," said David Cohen, a senior economist at Action Economics.
Exports from Taiwan sank more than 44 percent in January, the second month of record declines, while China exports fell 17.5 percent last month.
Singapore, like other Asian economies, relies on the rest of the world to buy its products, but the worst financial crisis in 80 years battered consumer sentiment in key markets.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asian economist at HSBC, said he expected non-oil domestic exports to decline for the ninth consecutive month in January on a year-on-year basis and "the worst so far" since a 31 percent fall in September 2001.
"The base effect is not helpful and the earlier than normal Chinese new year will have had an additional depressing effect," he said.
The poor performance has led some economists to predict monetary policy easing before the central bank's next official meeting in April. The bank uses the Singapore dollar as its main monetary policy tool by managing it against an undisclosed basket of currencies.
Singapore's export-dependent economy shrank an annualised seasonally adjusted 16.9 percent in the October-December period, the worst ever quarterly drop, and the government believes gross domestic product could decline by as much as 5 percent this year.
Forecasts for Singapore's non-oil exports in Jan:
Percentage change
vs Dec 08* vs Jan 08
Action Economics 0.0 -35.0
IFR Markets ~ - 36.5
HSBC ~ -30.0
Standard Chartered +1.0 -28.8
Forecast Ltd -1.0 -32.7
-----------------------------------------------
Median 0.0 -32.7
High +1.0 -36.5
Low -1.0 -28.8
* Seasonally adjusted
~ Not available
(Reporting by Nopporn Wong-Anan; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
