Singapore will be 万福金安 and Huat Big Big 了

[k1976]

Singapore Braces for Shockwaves as Trump-Harris Tussle Goes to the Wire​

The US embassy in Singapore.
Photographer: ED WRAY/AP
By Bill Faries
2 November 2024 at 9:00 AM SGT
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Welcome to the Singapore Edition newsletter. Each week we’ll bring you insights into one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. If you haven’t yet, please sign up here.
This week, Bill Faries looks ahead at a potentially seismic US election finale, Patrick Winters digs into the world’s priciest car market and Yongchang Chin savors Ningbo flavors.

All Eyes on America​

“When elephants fight, the grass suffers.” —Lee Kuan Yew, citing Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere.

It may be happening on the other side of the world, but next week’s US election is sure to reverberate in Singapore. As we wrap up this newsletter, the polls show a race well within the margin of error. A final result could take days to emerge.
The election isn’t a sideshow for Singapore: China may be our top trading partner, but the US is the biggest source of foreign direct investment, and the American embassy estimates that more than 30,000 US citizens call the little red dot home.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has been warning the public for months that US-China tensions are the new normal. At his swearing-in ceremony in May, he said, “The great powers are competing to shape a new, yet undefined, global order. We must brace ourselves to these new realities and adapt to a messier, riskier, and more violent world.”
Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump appear likely to change that trajectory.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris​

RealClearPolitics Poll Average

Source: RealClearPolitics
Harris has touted the Biden administration’s efforts to restrict China’s access to high technology, chafing some European and Asian allies. The US also recently approved $2 billion more in weapons for Taiwan, the biggest geopolitical hot spot in Asia.
Trump, meanwhile, has raised doubts about the US commitment to Taiwan and proposed a blanket 10% tariff on imports, a move that would spark retaliation around the globe and strike at Singapore’s sweet spot as a champion of open and free trade.

One Western envoy based in Singapore told Bloomberg that if the election results lead more countries to enact retaliatory tariffs, or raise doubts about the US willingness to defend allies in Asia, that would put Singapore in a complicated spot.

Rohit Sipahimalani, chief investment officer of Temasek, tells Haslinda Amin global growth would be negatively impacted by the US election.Bloomberg
Temasek International’s Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani was more direct, telling Bloomberg’s Haslinda Amin this week that while a Harris win would be beneficial for emerging markets, the opposite is likely under a Trump victory.
“A Trump win is probably going to mean a stronger dollar and higher rates than you would otherwise have,” he said. “The tariffs are going to create uncertainty, which is never good for investment.” (See Temasek’s clarification.)
Singapore has navigated plenty of crises in its nearly 60 years of independence, from the Cold War to the Asian financial crisis to Covid. Whatever happens Tuesday, the island’s history of thriving in difficult times will be put to the test. —Bill Faries

Weekend Catch-Up​

A selection of the best of Bloomberg storytelling, from podcasts and video to explainers and feature stories.

Read:

• Trader’s $10,000 spoofing profit hauntsNomura, with clients dumping the Japanese firm from underwriting corporate bonds.
• Olympus CEO Stefan Kaufmann resigned after an investigation into allegations that he purchased illegal drugs.

Watch:

• Taiwan’s control of the AI supply chain goes way beyond chips.
• You’ve heard of K-Pop, but what about K-Architecture? Haslinda Amin explores the Korean design wave for Bloomberg Originals’ Momentum series.

An increasingly unstable world has upended the post-Cold War dynamic, with the US-China rivalry helping remake the hubs and pathways of global trade. Some nations have chosen sides, but a few are taking advantage of the situation.
Listen:

• Our Big Take Asia podcast explores the struggle by the US to curb China’s tech rise.
• Find out why Wall Street is betting on a Trump win.

Market Place: Car Supplies Get a Rev​

Bringing you up to speed on the most interesting moves in the markets.

In Singapore, owning a car is a luxury for most people. Only a privileged slice of the population can afford the most expensive vehicles in the world.
Rising wealth in the city-state has intensified bidding for the scarce permits needed to take a vehicle onto roads, pushing the total cost of ownership well into six figures.
Hence the excitement among car lovers seeing news this week about a government plan for a one-off increase in the number of cars on the road, despite the policy enforced since 2018 to crimp the population.
According to the headlines, the Land Transport Authority will “progressively inject” as many as 20,000 new permits representing about 2% of the 1 million vehicles on the road right now. What isn’t clear from the press release is exactly how and when this would boost actual wheels on the road and ease prices.
The LTA said it can add more permits because people are using their cars less since the pandemic. And traffic management has improved thanks to a new satellite tracking system used to price road usage in congested areas.
The land-strapped city-state has for decades been a pioneer in limiting the vehicle population to avoid the congestion afflicting cities like Jakarta, Bangkok and Manila. So, before you can own a vehicle you have to join a biweekly auction to buy a so-called Certificate of Entitlement giving road access for as long as 10 years.

As this limited supply intersected with a flood of wealthy immigrants, frantic bidding has driven prices of permits for larger, more powerful autos above S$100,000 in most auctions since mid-2022. In late 2023, they peaked at more than S$150,000. In recent auctions, COEs for even the cheapest little hatchback have again nudged above S$100,000. That’s what you must pay before you even buy the car.

Singapore’s fourth-generation premier, Lawrence Wong, must pick a date to win his own personal mandate in an election before the end of next year. Car inflation coupled with property prices and other cost increases could fuel grumbling among middle-class voters. —Patrick Winters

House Swap: Singapore River Versus Miami​

What you can get for your money in Singapore’s pricey property market.
The property market is set for a key test in November, as multiple developers rush to release projects for sale. Lower interest rates and the first drop in private-home prices in five quarters are raising hopes that buyers will return to ease the pain of the worst year for home sales since the 2008 financial crisis.

An artist impression of the Union Square Residences in Singapore.Source: City Developments Ltd.
Among these projects is Union Square Residences in the city center. It’s begun previews: Its smallest one-bedroom apartments (463 square feet) are priced from S$1.38 million ($1.04 million). City Developments — among the country's largest developers — and some peers are placing high stakes on the appetite for luxury property.
“With the recent pricing and macro environment, the developer might want to err a bit more on the cautious side and not significantly overprice a project,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ken Foong.

A unit at Miami’s Biscayne Bay.Source: Lux Media Group and ONE Sotheby’s International Realty
Swap vistas of the Singapore River and Marina Bay for Miami’s Biscayne Bay, where a high-floor, two-bedroom unit in the financial district offers more than three times the space, complete with a tub. Priced at $1.1 million, 1,500-square-foot apartments like these are gaining traction among rich Mexicans seeking to park wealth overseas since President Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide win. —Nurin Sofia

The Limelight: Centenarian Artist​

Who’s in the news in Singapore’s global, multicultural population.

Lim Tze Peng received a gift to celebrate his 103rd birthday: his first solo show in the National Gallery.
For more than half a century, Lim’s brush has recorded Singapore’s changes. Chinatown and the Singapore River feature in works blending Orientalist and Impressionist styles. Vibrant portraits of old Singapore are a glimpse of the past, a tour through crowded wet markets and kopitiams, festive celebrations and depictions of local landmarks like the Sultan Mosque, according to exhibition notes.
The show — Becoming Lim Tze Peng — also depicts landscapes from his art expeditions in Southeast Asia and the world beyond. Born in 1921, Lim was a primary school teacher at Xin Min School and then became principal in 1951. He remained principal until he retired in 1981. In an interview this month, Lim told the Straits Times that he is still painting or writing calligraphy. —Alfred Cang
Where: National Gallery Singapore, Level 4 City Hall Wing, 1 St Andrew’s Road
When: Oct. 25 to March 23, 2025, 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily
Admission: Free for Singaporeans and permanent residents, from $15 for non-residents
Info: https://www.nationalgallery.sg/BecomingLimTzePeng

The Review: Ningbo Flavors​

From the best spots for a business lunch to drinks with the boss, we sample the city’s eateries, bars and new experiences.

Among Singapore’s sea of Cantonese and Sichuanese restaurants, newly opened Yongfustands out with cuisine from Ningbo, a city south of Shanghai. It’s the eatery’s fifth branch, along with three in Shanghai and one in Hong Kong.
The vibe. It’s classy and quite a contrast from its relaxed mall location. The main dining room is small, with only four big round tables and two smaller ones. All were taken on a Sunday evening. The decor is understated yet refined.

Yongfu SingaporeSource: Yongfu Singapore
Can you conduct a meeting here? It’s certainly quiet enough for a business lunch. If privacy is needed, there are also bookable rooms available.
What about a romantic dinner? It would depend on the mood you’re going for. Yongfu has a polished feel that’s probably better for a big anniversary celebration than a first date.
What we’d order again. The standout dishes included yam soup, called Taro Pottage on the menu (it’s nicer than it sounds), Chinese mustard greens stewed in a clay pot, and a seaweed cake as a dessert (it’s more of a biscuit). The general flavor profile of Ningbo dishes, I’ve been told, tends to be fresh and leans toward saltiness.

Taro Pottage, Yongfu SingaporeSource: Yongchang China
Need to know. Located on the first floor of Suntec City mall, Yongfu opens daily from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. Prices can vary depending on what you order. I went with family to celebrate a birthday, and we avoided the extravagant live seafood options. One soup, two appetizers and four mains for the four of us came to more than S$500. Call to reserve. —Yongchang Chin

Have a place you’d like us to review or feedback to share? Get in touch at [email protected].
Thanks for reading our newsletter! Subscribe hereif you haven’t already.

More from Bloomberg​

• Markets Daily for what’s moving in stocks, bonds, FX and commodities
• Next China provides dispatches from within the world’s second-largest economy on where China stands now — and where it’s going next
• Hong Kong Edition for following the money and people shaking up the Asian finance hub
• India Edition for an insider’s guide to the emerging economic powerhouse
• Watch Club for exclusive news about timepieces, plus access to special events and meetups
• Explore all Bloomberg newsletters at Bloomberg.com.

— With assistance from Patrick Winters, Nurin Sofia, Yongchang Chin, and Low De Wei

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[k1976]

Donald Trump’s Plan for Tariffs Is a Wrecking Ball for the WTO​

While modest goods tariffs have a limited aggregate impact on a services-led economy, a 60 per cent rate is huge.
FEBRUARY 8, 2024 • COMMENTARY
By Ryan Bourne
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This article appeared in The Times on February 8, 2024.

Donald Trump as president took the United States in a clear protectionist direction. Imposing new tariffs on friends and foes, his mercantilist “America First” doctrine manifested in a laborious renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, new tariffs on steel and aluminium and a trade war entailing tariffs on over $250 billion of Chinese goods.
Regrettably, Joe Biden largely maintained Trump’s policies, judging them popular. Yet that’s merely fuelled Trump’s desire to up the protectionist ante. Should he defeat Biden and become president again in November, Trump now threatens 60 per cent tariffs or higher on all Chinese imports and a minimum 10 per cent universal tariff worldwide. This combination doesn’t just threaten economic chaos; it’s a wrecking ball aimed at the pillars of the World Trade Organisation.
The quintupling of the average tariff on China is most striking, particularly given the failures of the first foray. Economic research finds the present China tariffs were borne overwhelmingly by American consumers, not Chinese exporters. David Autor, the prominent economist, and his co-authors recently showed, too, that the tariffs didn’t create jobs in protected sectors but sacrificed them in American agriculture after Chinese retaliation.
While modest goods tariffs have a limited aggregate impact on a services-led economy, a 60 per cent rate is huge.
While modest goods tariffs have a limited aggregate impact on a services-led economy, a 60 per cent rate is huge. Companies adjusted to Trump’s (and Biden’s) tariffs by assembling goods with critical Chinese parts in third countries such as Vietnam, but a costly 60 per cent tariff makes intolerable the risk of Trump introducing “rules of origin” regulations to thwart this workaround. That uncertainty could compel industries to completely sever China’s critical role in supply chains, triggering a substantial, costly global supply shock.
That’s before the retaliatory fallout. “This policy would be a violation of a basic rule of the WTO, the most favoured nation rule of non-discrimination, which prohibits discrimination between and among products imported from other WTO members,” James Bacchus, a former US trade representative, told me. The 60 per cent rate also clearly exceeds many of America’s pledged WTO tariff ceilings. The United States thus would become legally susceptible to China slashing trade concessions for American exporters, costing billions more in trade disruption.
Mitigating this havoc by removing trade barriers with other allies — so-called friendshoring — isn’t on Trump’s radar, either. He plans to scrap even Biden’s largely symbolic “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework”, mockingly branding it “TPP 2.0,” a throwback to the Trans-Pacific Partnership from which America withdrew while Trump was in office.
Meanwhile, his blanket 10 per cent global tariff idea, far above the existing 2.2 per cent US average, shatters any myth that he’s merely responding to “unfair” foreign practices or defending “national security”. Instead, this regressive tax will both unpick existing US free trade agreements and breach tariff maximums to which America has committed.
The inevitable consequence not only would be increased input costs for American manufacturers and consumers, but also lengthy disputes and appeals, involving years of WTO consultations and rulings. US stonewalling of jurist appointments for the WTO Appellate Body in recent years means that even clear violations by America will then be subject to appeals by the US until they are pushed into a legal void, with the WTO powerless to enforce lawful sanctions.

 

[k1976]

A victory by Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would spell higher tariffs on American imports. It would accelerate the relocation of production from middle powers such as Germany and Japan to the United States, weakening their economies and solidifying the centrality of a G2 – China and the US – in the global economy.


The inflationary pressure from higher tariffs would stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. In the long run, as US trade dwindles, the dollar’s global role would decline.


Former US president Trump loves tariffs and has made them a central part of his political platform for years. He appears to believe the US became rich on the back of high tariffs a century ago and that the free trade that flourished after World War II has made the country poorer. He has spoken of imposing a 20 per cent tariff on all imports.


If re-elected, Trump would erect a Fortress America of trade. Parts and components made in Europe or Japan would be suspect, and those made in Canada or Mexico would be unlikely to fare any better. In 2016, “Make America Great Again” probably meant moving the country back by about three decades, but now it looks like it could regress to a century ago.

 

[k1976]

The most immediate impact would be on the world’s middle industrial and technology powers. They thrive because they can leverage global supply chains and the size of the Chinese and American markets to scale up and become more efficient. Fortress America would force them to relocate to the US to sell there.


US restrictions are impeding their sales in the Chinese market and pushing China to become more technologically self-sufficient. Middle powers are being squeezed on both sides, with far-reaching consequences for their currencies and living standards.

 

[k1976]

Cars and semiconductors are likely to be at the centre of Trump’s protectionist policies. Trump renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement during his first term, but its replacement might not survive his second. Auto parts can cross the US-Mexico border several times before final assembly under current rules, resulting in progressively less value added in US manufacturing.

Trump also has a beef with semiconductor manufacturers, having accused Taiwan of taking “about 100 per cent of our chip business”. US President Joe Biden’s Chips and Science Act provides subsidies for foreign manufacturers to set up factories in the US, but Trump wants to use tariffs to force them to move there. This would tilt the playing field in favour of chip manufacturers already in the US, leaving Asian chip giants with a bumpy road ahead.


Implementing plans for Fortress America is likely to face major headwinds. A lack of engineers and technicians is a major issue which will take years to address. The inflationary effects of Trump’s policies could force the Fed to raise interest rates again, something that would be deeply unpopular.


Like Britain a century ago, the US has become a financial superpower with the US dollar at its centre. Global demand for the dollar makes money easy and cheap within the US. The government can solve political problems with borrowed money. As long as debt is cheap and easily available, everyone is having a good time.

 

[k1976]

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-...why-trump-tariffs-20-may-well-result-g2-world


Trump also has a beef with semiconductor manufacturers, having accused Taiwan of taking “about 100 per cent of our chip business”. US President Joe Biden’s Chips and Science Act provides subsidies for foreign manufacturers to set up factories in the US, but Trump wants to use tariffs to force them to move there. This would tilt the playing field in favour of chip manufacturers already in the US, leaving Asian chip giants with a bumpy road ahead.


Implementing plans for Fortress America is likely to face major headwinds. A lack of engineers and technicians is a major issue which will take years to address. The inflationary effects of Trump’s policies could force the Fed to raise interest rates again, something that would be deeply unpopular.


Like Britain a century ago, the US has become a financial superpower with the US dollar at its centre. Global demand for the dollar makes money easy and cheap within the US. The government can solve political problems with borrowed money. As long as debt is cheap and easily available, everyone is having a goo in

 

[k1976]

In the Pax Americana era after World War II, the US thrived by having the rest of the world make its goods at lower wages. This created a wealthy but highly unequal society. A Fortress America where more goods are made at home would be less efficient and wealthy but also less unequal, as US workers would no longer compete against cheaper foreign counterparts.


Fortress America could perhaps be viewed as a rational strategy for the US not to end up like Britain. Americans could get back to making decent livings once the easy money is gone, given the country’s vast resources. Maybe Trump isn’t crazy after all.

 

[k1976]

• The share of loan applications by middle-aged Singaporeans, aged 40 to 59, jumped nearly a third over the past two years
• This is according to a report issued by loan matching platform Lendela on Aug 8
• The report found that the most common reasons for borrowing are associated with living costs and debt — such as recurring bills, debt consolidation, and credit cards

 

[k1976]

The spokesperson also said its data tracked loan applications, not loan disbursements, and there was a “slight difference” between these numbers.

Mr Bryan Tay, the platform’s Singapore country manager, said they have seen a “gradual but consistent increase in loan applications” mainly among middle-aged Singaporeans and borrowers making above the median wage — which was around S$62,000 in 2023.

Indeed, the report also indicated a 35 per cent jump in the share of applications from middle-income borrowers — those who earn between S$48,000 and S$84,000 annually.

Similarly, there was a 64 per cent rise in the share of applications from mid to high income borrowers — those who earn above S$84,000 a year.

“On closer look, we see that this uptick has its roots in rising costs, as the majority of the most common reasons for borrowing have been associated with living costs and debt — such as recurring bills, debt consolidation, and existing credit facilities,” said Mr Tay.

 

[k1976]

WHY IT MATTERS​

According to Lendela’s report, a fifth of all cost-of-living loan applications are for sums over S$20,000.

The share of cost-of-living borrowers with existing debts jumped by 25 per cent from June 2022 to June 2024. The share of those with large debts over S$50,000 shot up by 56 per cent in the same period.

This suggests a “growing need for help with managing large expenses and debts among Singaporeans amid a cost crunch”, said Mr Tay.

But concerns over rising costs are not new, and have been part of the public discourse in Singapore in recent years.

A motion on the cost of living tabled by the Workers’ Party in November last year was debated in Parliament for more than seven hours before being passed with three significant amendments from the People’s Action Party.

In April 2024, a joint survey by the Institute of Policy Studies and CNA found that nine in 10 young Singaporeans aged 21 to 39 felt personally affected by the rising cost of living.
As part of the Government’s measures to help Singaporeans with these concerns, the Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday (Aug 13) that 2.4 million eligible Singaporean adults will receive a one-off cash payment of between S$200 to S$400 in September.

 

[k1976]

WHY PEOPLE BORROW​

The report found that four out of six of the most common reasons for borrowing are associated with living costs.

They are:

• Debt consolidation (30.8 per cent)
• Bills (13.7 per cent)
• Home and household expenditure (8.2 per cent)
• Credit card debt (8 per cent)

Borrowing for renovation and business-related expenses made up 6.3 per cent and 5.1 per cent of all loan applications respectively.

The report also found that while retirees above 60 account for only 3 per cent of applications today, there has been a 50 per cent jump in loan applications for this group since 2022.

On the other hand, there was a slight decline in the share of borrowers in their 30s, dropping from just under 40 per cent to 37.6 per cent.