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SILVER TSUNAMI
Good news for me, bad news for S'pore
By Zhen Ming
June 13, 2009
A TSUNAMI is certain to hit us with great force in the not-too-distant future.
No, we're not talking about the sort which led to more than 200,000 people in 11countries being killed on 26 Dec 2004.
We're talking about the 'silver tsunami' - the rapidly ageing Singapore population. There will be wave after wave after wave of elderly Singaporeans and the demographic phenomenon won't go away for years to come.
By the year 2030, the number of people 65 years or older here will have trebled to 900,000 (from about 300,000 presently).
It's a rather frightening scenario, indeed.
By 2030, because there are so many of us oldies, we will probably need many more hospitals and hospices.
And we'll also require more nursing home beds as well as the services of many more healthcare professionals.
The good news: Most of us can now expect to live beyond 80, making us a people with the second-longest lifespan in Asia.
The even better news: The older we are right now, the longer our life expectancy.
That is, if you are already a 55-year-old man today, you can, on average, expect to live to the ripe old age of 80.
But if you're already a 75-year-old man right now, the odds are quite good that you can confidently plan to celebrate your 85th birthday.
But what may be good for you and I as individuals - living longer - isn't necessarily good for the country as a whole.
Not when there are so many young Singaporeans choosing to remain childless by choice. Who will support us in our old age?
But an ageing population is not unique to Singapore.
Elsewhere in Asia, the average girl born in Japan today will likely live to celebrate her 86th birthday, the longest life expectancy anywhere in the world.
On the other hand, the average Japanese boy will quite likely blow out his last birthday candles before he hits 80.
In sharp contrast, Afghanistan is at the bottom of Asia's longevity totem pole, with men and women not likely to live beyond 42 and 43 years respectively.
Closer to home, people in Myanmar have the shortest lifespan within the Asean region.
A boy born in Myanmar today will most likely not survive beyond the age of 57. A girl born there has only a slightly higher chance of living up to almost 63.
On a global basis, men fare best in the tiny, wealthy European nation of San Marino, where the average newborn boy can expect to live to 81.
Meanwhile, the West African country of Sierra Leone has the shortest life expectancy for men - just 39.
Zhen Ming, a Harvard-trained economist based in Singapore, is a freelance contributor.
SILVER TSUNAMI
Good news for me, bad news for S'pore
By Zhen Ming
June 13, 2009
A TSUNAMI is certain to hit us with great force in the not-too-distant future.
No, we're not talking about the sort which led to more than 200,000 people in 11countries being killed on 26 Dec 2004.
We're talking about the 'silver tsunami' - the rapidly ageing Singapore population. There will be wave after wave after wave of elderly Singaporeans and the demographic phenomenon won't go away for years to come.
By the year 2030, the number of people 65 years or older here will have trebled to 900,000 (from about 300,000 presently).
It's a rather frightening scenario, indeed.
By 2030, because there are so many of us oldies, we will probably need many more hospitals and hospices.
And we'll also require more nursing home beds as well as the services of many more healthcare professionals.
The good news: Most of us can now expect to live beyond 80, making us a people with the second-longest lifespan in Asia.
The even better news: The older we are right now, the longer our life expectancy.
That is, if you are already a 55-year-old man today, you can, on average, expect to live to the ripe old age of 80.
But if you're already a 75-year-old man right now, the odds are quite good that you can confidently plan to celebrate your 85th birthday.
But what may be good for you and I as individuals - living longer - isn't necessarily good for the country as a whole.
Not when there are so many young Singaporeans choosing to remain childless by choice. Who will support us in our old age?
But an ageing population is not unique to Singapore.
Elsewhere in Asia, the average girl born in Japan today will likely live to celebrate her 86th birthday, the longest life expectancy anywhere in the world.
On the other hand, the average Japanese boy will quite likely blow out his last birthday candles before he hits 80.
In sharp contrast, Afghanistan is at the bottom of Asia's longevity totem pole, with men and women not likely to live beyond 42 and 43 years respectively.
Closer to home, people in Myanmar have the shortest lifespan within the Asean region.
A boy born in Myanmar today will most likely not survive beyond the age of 57. A girl born there has only a slightly higher chance of living up to almost 63.
On a global basis, men fare best in the tiny, wealthy European nation of San Marino, where the average newborn boy can expect to live to 81.
Meanwhile, the West African country of Sierra Leone has the shortest life expectancy for men - just 39.
Zhen Ming, a Harvard-trained economist based in Singapore, is a freelance contributor.
