Singapore’s electronics recovery may lag that of Taiwan and South Korea, said UOB’s Koh, since its semiconductor ecosystem is almost entirely built around mature-node chips, and may not benefit directly from AI-related demand.
Non-electronic shipments slid 8.5 per cent year on year in the same period, faring worse than the 6.1 per cent decrease in May. This was largely because exports of non-monetary gold tumbled 51.1 per cent, equivalent to a value of about S$600 million.
NODX to Singapore’s top markets as a whole declined in June, with the exception of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the eurozone.
In particular, exports to Hong Kong slumped by 41.9 per cent year on year, a complete reversal from the 73.4 per cent jump in May, as shipments of non-monetary gold sank by 84.8 per cent.
Exports to China continued to slide in June with an 11.2 per cent year-on-year fall, in part because non-monetary exports nearly halved.
NODX to the US contracted 21.3 per cent year on year in the same period, as electronic shipments fell sharply; there was a decline of 67.1 per cent in disk media products and 56.2 per cent in telecommunications equipment.
OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said this was likely because the US economy is cooling, while the contraction in exports to China was “not surprising” given its disappointing Q2 economic growth figures.
She added that there are downside risks to the full-year official NODX outlook of 4 to 6 per cent, given that H1 already stands at minus 4.9 per cent year on year.
UOB’s Koh said he is lowering his NODX outlook to 2.5 per cent, from 4.5 per cent previously, with a “more meaningful recovery” likely only in Q4.
Beyond the much-anticipated tech upturn, analysts also warned about uncertainties and other tailwinds.
“One uncertainty is ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could disrupt supply chains, with port congestion already occurring from the re-routing and diversion of vessels from the Red Sea,” said DBS’ Chua.
“Another uncertainty pertains to economic policy, such as the extent of future US interest-rate cuts.”
Oxford Economics’ Yue believes monetary policy loosening is on the cards in key markets such as the US and the European Union, but that the impact of tight policy is likely to weigh on import demand for “a while longer”.
Non-electronic shipments slid 8.5 per cent year on year in the same period, faring worse than the 6.1 per cent decrease in May. This was largely because exports of non-monetary gold tumbled 51.1 per cent, equivalent to a value of about S$600 million.
NODX to Singapore’s top markets as a whole declined in June, with the exception of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the eurozone.
In particular, exports to Hong Kong slumped by 41.9 per cent year on year, a complete reversal from the 73.4 per cent jump in May, as shipments of non-monetary gold sank by 84.8 per cent.
Exports to China continued to slide in June with an 11.2 per cent year-on-year fall, in part because non-monetary exports nearly halved.
NODX to the US contracted 21.3 per cent year on year in the same period, as electronic shipments fell sharply; there was a decline of 67.1 per cent in disk media products and 56.2 per cent in telecommunications equipment.
OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said this was likely because the US economy is cooling, while the contraction in exports to China was “not surprising” given its disappointing Q2 economic growth figures.
She added that there are downside risks to the full-year official NODX outlook of 4 to 6 per cent, given that H1 already stands at minus 4.9 per cent year on year.
UOB’s Koh said he is lowering his NODX outlook to 2.5 per cent, from 4.5 per cent previously, with a “more meaningful recovery” likely only in Q4.
Beyond the much-anticipated tech upturn, analysts also warned about uncertainties and other tailwinds.
“One uncertainty is ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could disrupt supply chains, with port congestion already occurring from the re-routing and diversion of vessels from the Red Sea,” said DBS’ Chua.
“Another uncertainty pertains to economic policy, such as the extent of future US interest-rate cuts.”
Oxford Economics’ Yue believes monetary policy loosening is on the cards in key markets such as the US and the European Union, but that the impact of tight policy is likely to weigh on import demand for “a while longer”.
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