[Sg] - Goh Chok Tong has analyzed a China-USA war over Taiwan and he has decided on the winner and loser

[UltimaOnline]

“Instead of building more bridges, more walls will be built. This is the world Lawrence Wong and the 4G team will inherit.”

The US’ involvement in Taiwan is a negative-sum game, and should a proxy war break out between the US and China in the South China Sea, China’s military will win, says emeritus senior minister Goh Chok Tong.

Speaking at UOB’s 2H2022 Investment Forum on June 3, Goh pointed to the “asymmetrical” scenario should the US support Taiwan in a hot war against China.

“China’s military expenditure is only one-third that of the US… [but] strength on paper is not the same as real strength. Where the South China Sea and Taiwan are concerned, those who have analysed it say China has asymmetrical defence, and therefore offense,” says Goh.

Should a war extend beyond the Asian theatre, however, the US would emerge victorious, Goh adds. “The US has 5,500 nuclear weapons. China has 300. Who would win?”

Goh also answered questions about the impetus for a potential war. Already, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has coloured the Americans’ view of China, as the US become increasingly suspicious of China, says Goh. “China has said its ties with Russia are ‘without limits’ and it does not condemn the invasion. The US has warned China not to invade Taiwan. It has moved to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan and war over Taiwan cannot be ruled out.”

On May 23, President Joe Biden, in response to a question, said that the US would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force. This warning appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by the US. The comments were slammed by China.

“China can say: ‘I am prepared to fight because Taiwan is a part of China.’ It is a very complex situation,” says Goh.

A patient China

My hope is that there should be no war, says Goh. “I hope China will be very patient… I hope China grows its economy.”

“I look at the way the US is preparing to deepen its ties with Taiwan; I feel there will be no good outcome,” says Goh. “No good will come out of this; that is my worry. Both sides should understand one another, especially the US. What are the long term aspirations of China?”

While analysts repeatedly refer to China as the world’s second largest economy, Goh points to China’s GDP per capita, which is one-sixth that of the US. “This is never emphasised.”

As of 2020, China’s GDP per capita stood at US$10,500.40, while the US’ figure stood at US$63,543.58.

“The inner areas of China are still very poor. The duty of any government is to raise the standard of living of everybody, of the rural population. That is the priority of China.”

The genie is out of the bottle

In a prepared speech, Goh reminisced about his time as prime minister of Singapore between 1990 and 2004. “During my time as PM, the world was globalising. Asean Plus Three [which began in 1997] included China, Japan and South Korea; China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the US extended a hand of friendship to China.”

“That might have been the golden period of geopolitics,” he adds.

Today, Goh says he is “pessimistic about the future of the world”, a perspective he has held “even before the invasion of Ukraine”.

He says: “The world is becoming unstable and more dangerous. It will be a world polarised and divided between the big powers: US and China.”

The US is not going to give up its dominant role to anyone, adds Goh. “It sees the rise of China as a long-term strategic threat.”

Goh cites US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s outline of the Biden administration's broad foreign policy agenda from March 2021. Then, Blinken said: "Our relationship with China will be competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be and adversarial when it must be.”

“But China is not going to roll over,” says Goh. “The genie is already out of the bottle.”

The US has outlined its fight against China as one of “democracies versus autocracies”, says Goh. “It would have been better had the US defined the fight as good governance versus bad governance.”

He adds: “the end result is that the US’ relationship with China will end up as a negative-sum game, not even a zero-sum game.”

Even if there is no global hot war, there will be an estranged relationship between both sides, says Goh. “At best, a bipolar world. At worst, there will be a world of bipolar disorder: sometimes sane, sometimes insane. A world [where countries are] forced to take sides.”

“Instead of building more bridges, I'm afraid more walls will be built. This is the world Lawrence Wong and the 4G team will inherit.”


https://sg.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-win-proxy-war-against-002022438.html

https://forums.fuckwarezone.com.sg/...r-against-us-in-taiwan-goh-chok-tong.6759632/

 

[syed putra]

And sinkie is part of malay archipelago.

 

[Rogue Trader]

By the time war breaks out in Taiwan, over 80% of Taiwanese military would already have defect to the other side.

Taiwanese military is still aligned to kmt, not Dpp which is regarded as an activist party.

And the military have a rich tradition of switching loyalties on the battlefield when the odds don't look so good

 

[gingerlyn]

Goh Chok Tong has no choice but to support China openly because he useless jiak leow bee son Goh Jin Hian owes multibillion dollars to many China investors China banks. He also has to report to Singapore CBD regularly to answer his pending legal cases.

 

[mojito]

And sinkie is part of malay archipelago.

Which is part of world. So Malay sia be long to every body.

 

[mojito]

By the time war breaks out in Taiwan, over 80% of Taiwanese military would already have defect to the other side.

Taiwanese military is still aligned to kmt, not Dpp which is regarded as an activist party.

And the military have a rich tradition of switching loyalties on the battlefield when the odds don't look so good

All those juicy us military hard ware, handed over bloodlessly to the CCP.

 

[millim6868]

This guy is jia liao bee ,useless , talk cock ,if he really good hw would distance himself from the white clowns,look at his son ,talk cock only ,one useless person ,if all the white clowns are good they won't be hanging around to get easy money ,wat did they do to make our life better ,nothing, n if they are good they would be poach by private sectors ,even the, are in private sector they are not getting wat they are paid for ,all is a joke

 

[millim6868]

They think too highly for zhenselves ,but 61% still blur blur,feeding all these useless clowns, the, o ly suck on us n make our lives worse

 

[laksaboy]

The winner is cancer. The loser is Goh Chok Tong.

Die faster better. And take your Peanut wife along with you.

 

[poore]

does anyone still pay any attention to his words?

 

[Loofydralb]

GCT is getting senile. What kind of wooden analysis is this?
In the past LKY would have gone to USA to persuade, cajole, explain to the Americans which choices they should make
GCT and none in cabinet can do this but whine on the internet

 

[Rogue Trader]

All those juicy us military hard ware, handed over bloodlessly to the CCP.

Suicide drones that fall out of the sky because GPS got jammed. Out ranged M777 howitzer arty due to cheap rounds and missing targeting modules. Mlaw rockets that miss or don't fire due to faulty battery packs...

Were these all made in Shenzhen factories???

 

[Rogue Trader]

GCT is getting senile. What kind of wooden analysis is this?
In the past LKY would have gone to USA to persuade, cajole, explain to the Americans which choices they should make
GCT and none in cabinet can do this but whine on the internet

He's politically irrelevant. Only Straight times and local porlumpas tolerate his bullshit

 

[mojito]

Suicide drones that fall out of the sky because GPS got jammed. Out ranged M777 howitzer arty due to cheap rounds and missing targeting modules. Mlaw rockets that miss or don't fire due to faulty battery packs...

Were these all made in Shenzhen factories???

Surely the other stuffs can be copied or reverse engineered by the clever Chinese, just like how our Terrex have been striped searched, our Battlefield Management System decrypted and improved upon for the PLA.

 

[mojito]

GCT is getting senile. What kind of wooden analysis is this?
In the past LKY would have gone to USA to persuade, cajole, explain to the Americans which choices they should make
GCT and none in cabinet can do this but whine on the internet

Conflict in Taiwan will be like conflict in Ukraine. There is no incentive for nuclear escalation. Woody Goh has never been much of a statesman in world affairs unlike the great lky and loooong.

 

[rodent2005]

And sinkie is part of malay archipelago.

No, Sinkie was kicked out by Malaysia.

 

[rodent2005]

Why no one blames Putin or Xi for going to war but blames USA for trying to defend its allies? If CCP claims they have righteous reason to attack Taiwan, why do they continue to cede Vladivostok to Russia?

 

[rodent2005]

The CCP bigwigs are enjoying life too much to throw it all away with a nuclear war.

Additionally, a war with Taiwan can go either way. It may mean the end of the CCP.

 

[syed putra]

By the time war breaks out in Taiwan, over 80% of Taiwanese military would already have defect to the other side.

Taiwanese military is still aligned to kmt, not Dpp which is regarded as an activist party.

And the military have a rich tradition of switching loyalties on the battlefield when the odds don't look so good

Irrespective, the orang asli will continue with the fight

 

[Willamshakespear]

USA & the World need not worry about Taiwan being invaded. It may not happen, if one studies the patience of China under President Xi's administration, & directions from modern China's great Premier Deng Xiao Ping, whom advised patience over Taiwan. China is not like hasty RUS President Putin whom only want greatness & glory for himself in his lifetime & blinded by such, causing not only misery for himself & Russians, but fortunately temporary only for the World.

China are mostly made up Han Chinese, with history traced back 5000yrs ago. They had wise sages that taught them well. 'Yugong Yishan' (愚公移山) was an ancient legend which explains what the Chinese People are - patience to move even mountains. Being Chinese & familiar with using the abacas ( ancient calculator ), they know the high costs of war, & will avoid such unless necessary, proven by its bloodless takeover of Xinjiang & Hong Kong.

Their strategy is to win over the population instead, by sadly economic means today. The Chinese people had known poverty for centuries, more so the Hans, even with Hans diaspora Worldwide since the 18th century. Taiwanese are mostly Han Chinese, & no different from mainland born Chinese. With economic progress, China hoped that the Taiwanese thru economic inducement will simply switch allegiance to China, with no bloodshed as it is a free choice, & rest of the World will have no ability to complain about. If it had wanted a forceful takeover like RUS - UKR, it would had happened long ago.

China did progress, & went even few steps further, thru propaganda & its agents in every social media outlet & contacts with the Taiwanese, & some did made the crossover to support China, as happened in Xinjiang & Hong Kong. China's often outburst against USA & World over their support of Taiwanese independence & arms sale were genuine, as it will only hamper China's aim to reunify with Taiwan.

However, the main ingredients missing from such strategy is China's Rule of Law carved in stone, fair justice & equality, even to its own China born. Taiwanese, having tasted free will & democratic freedom, will not willingly kneel or grovel to the China born leaders or to any China born citizens as required for unification. Should China correct its mistakes, Taiwan will be reunified without a shot fired, & rest of Humanity, including USA weary of wars, need not go into any defensive mode or war to protect Taiwan as it will not be needed-its citizens had willingly pledged allegiance to China.

Similarly, over the South China Sea issue, China has the inborn virtue of being patient & will stick to its strategy - to infiltrate & turn opposition to its cause, & not thru overt use of force that will destroy all efforts akin to the way foolish RUS had attempt to reunify with UKR today. Any military maneuver are only for show, to strike fear, none harmed but only as a last resort if plans do not go their way. As in Taiwan, the missing ingredients are the Rule of Law, fair justice & true equality carved in stone, & not mere hot air of words/promises which had been proven to be never upheld.

China is not easy to govern admittedly, with 1.3Billion citizens, each with diverse aspirations & concerns. In the end, China leaders should use the same abacus to calculate if it is worth gaining more territories, resources & prestige, when its own per capita income is merely est $10k even as 'factory of the world', when other nations have far more per capita income, if it presumed that economic power alone would win over Humanity.