Govt S$1.1Billion public bus services cash injection, shouldn't commuters expect a 12.0% bus fare 'discount'?
According to 'S$1.1b bus services scheme not for operators' profit: Lui Tuck Yew' [CNA, 09July2012]: "Minister for Transport Lui Tuck Yew on Monday said the implementation details of the S$1.1 billion Bus Services Enhancement Programme (BSEP) to ramp up bus capacity over the next five years have largely been sorted out.... Mr Lui said the first of the 550 buses under the BSEP will go on the roads in September."
At S$1.1 billion for 550 buses, that works out to a provision of S$2million per bus, is the LTA running a free bus service, obviously not.
A check on classifieds however revealed the OMV value of an average 8900cc tour coach (pict link) (King Long brand) to be only S$143,289 (COE S$34,502 non-inclusive).
No details have been published regarding the cost nor type of public bus tobe purchased but simple research revealed that the Scania K310UD [SG.wiki], a 132 passenger capacity double decker has an an engine capacity of 8,867 cc (about similar to that of the King Long tour coach).
Granted that Scania is a renown MNC headquartered in Sweden and that public buses may need to be better build than tour coaches, and that the bus body of a double-deck would surely cost more than that of a single deck, still, supposing that the cost of an average SBS bus (COE and tax non-inclusive) might be S$300,000 with a life span of say 10 years, then how else shall the rest of the $1.7million over 5 yrs be spent- $340,000 p.a.? (PS: I'm unsure what is the residual value of a public bus 5yrs old- will it be sold to SBS at a fraction of the original cost?).
At $340,000 to run a each public bus for 1 year?
That's a lot of cash.
Could the following be a simple breakdown:
Cost of drivers/ management (admin, mgt etc)/ break down crew per bus:
7 people, each paid $3k/month * 12mths= $252,000 p.a..
8 people, each paid $3k/month * 12mths= $288,000 p.a.
Bus fuel costs p.a.:
Ave bus speed in SG: 17.8kmh [TDY, Jan 18, 2012]
Total distance covered/day (assume moving non-stop 12 hrs)= 213.6km/day.
According to Fuel efficiency in transportation - Wiki, #Buses , a 55 seater diesel bus has a fuel efficiency of 6.0 mpg-US (39 L/100 km).
Based upon the above, the total diesel/ SG bus/ year consumed would be 365days*213.6km/day*0.39L/Km= 30,405.96L/annum.
Cost of 30,406L of diesel at $1.41/L [price pict (06July2012)]= S$42,872.40/bus/ year
Total labour (7men) and fuel cost to run one public bus for 1 year= $252k + $42,872.40 = $294,872.40 p.a.
Total labour (8men) and fuel cost to run one public bus for 1 year= $288k + $42.872k = $330,872.40 p.a.
Pls note that the 2nd figure is still below the S$340K per bus figure derived from the S$2M per bus over 5 yrs BSEP plan- which means this bus, being totally subvented by SG tax payers, needn't charge its commuters any $$$.
According to SBS transit annual report 2011 [link], coverpage , it has a current fleet of 3015 buses with a market share in SG of 75%, the total number of public buses in SG is therefore estimated to be 4020.
Considering that the $340k/ public bus/ p.a. subvention would presumably result in 550 'fully subvented' buses on SG roads (5yrs) and supposing that ridership fulfills the need for these 550 new buses and that there is no increase in overhead costs in running the public bus service, then ceteris paribus, shouldn't we expect at least a [550/(550+4020)]= 12.03% decrease in bus fares?
[pict source (Bus advert)]
[pict source(fuel prices)]
[Pict source(new revenue)]
According to 'S$1.1b bus services scheme not for operators' profit: Lui Tuck Yew' [CNA, 09July2012]: "Minister for Transport Lui Tuck Yew on Monday said the implementation details of the S$1.1 billion Bus Services Enhancement Programme (BSEP) to ramp up bus capacity over the next five years have largely been sorted out.... Mr Lui said the first of the 550 buses under the BSEP will go on the roads in September."
At S$1.1 billion for 550 buses, that works out to a provision of S$2million per bus, is the LTA running a free bus service, obviously not.
A check on classifieds however revealed the OMV value of an average 8900cc tour coach (pict link) (King Long brand) to be only S$143,289 (COE S$34,502 non-inclusive).
No details have been published regarding the cost nor type of public bus tobe purchased but simple research revealed that the Scania K310UD [SG.wiki], a 132 passenger capacity double decker has an an engine capacity of 8,867 cc (about similar to that of the King Long tour coach).
Granted that Scania is a renown MNC headquartered in Sweden and that public buses may need to be better build than tour coaches, and that the bus body of a double-deck would surely cost more than that of a single deck, still, supposing that the cost of an average SBS bus (COE and tax non-inclusive) might be S$300,000 with a life span of say 10 years, then how else shall the rest of the $1.7million over 5 yrs be spent- $340,000 p.a.? (PS: I'm unsure what is the residual value of a public bus 5yrs old- will it be sold to SBS at a fraction of the original cost?).
At $340,000 to run a each public bus for 1 year?
That's a lot of cash.
Could the following be a simple breakdown:
Cost of drivers/ management (admin, mgt etc)/ break down crew per bus:
7 people, each paid $3k/month * 12mths= $252,000 p.a..
8 people, each paid $3k/month * 12mths= $288,000 p.a.
Bus fuel costs p.a.:
Ave bus speed in SG: 17.8kmh [TDY, Jan 18, 2012]
Total distance covered/day (assume moving non-stop 12 hrs)= 213.6km/day.
According to Fuel efficiency in transportation - Wiki, #Buses , a 55 seater diesel bus has a fuel efficiency of 6.0 mpg-US (39 L/100 km).
Based upon the above, the total diesel/ SG bus/ year consumed would be 365days*213.6km/day*0.39L/Km= 30,405.96L/annum.
Cost of 30,406L of diesel at $1.41/L [price pict (06July2012)]= S$42,872.40/bus/ year
Total labour (7men) and fuel cost to run one public bus for 1 year= $252k + $42,872.40 = $294,872.40 p.a.
Total labour (8men) and fuel cost to run one public bus for 1 year= $288k + $42.872k = $330,872.40 p.a.
Pls note that the 2nd figure is still below the S$340K per bus figure derived from the S$2M per bus over 5 yrs BSEP plan- which means this bus, being totally subvented by SG tax payers, needn't charge its commuters any $$$.
According to SBS transit annual report 2011 [link], coverpage , it has a current fleet of 3015 buses with a market share in SG of 75%, the total number of public buses in SG is therefore estimated to be 4020.
Considering that the $340k/ public bus/ p.a. subvention would presumably result in 550 'fully subvented' buses on SG roads (5yrs) and supposing that ridership fulfills the need for these 550 new buses and that there is no increase in overhead costs in running the public bus service, then ceteris paribus, shouldn't we expect at least a [550/(550+4020)]= 12.03% decrease in bus fares?
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