Post Result Assessment - GE 2011

[scroobal]

• Worst ever results by PAP
• Loss of a Key Cabinet Minister - GY
• Lim Swee Say abandons ship to save his career by switching from Aljunied to East Coast GRC.
• Lim Swee Sway is now in the new marginal seat of East Coast and the new target for another opposition dream team. Will he swtich again. PAP slimmest margin now of 9%.
• Lim Hwee Hua might face defamation suit and the loss of her seat might help mitigate in her favour.
• Reform Party performs badly but KJ press interview shows man is very detached form reality
• Joo Chiat and Charles Chong in strife
• SDP's seats for hire candidates clearly outdo SDP own internal candidates. New party expected to be formed.
• Workers Party do extremely well with every one of their contesting candidates scoring 40% and above.
• NSP despite its good performance need to make a decision. A ship cannot have 2 masters nor a mountain with 2 tigers. Sebastian drags down Tony Tan and Hazel Poa
• Potong Pasir expected to see Premium level upgrading with freebies thrown in
• Kate Spade enters parliament - clear failure of the GRC systems where donkey and asses can ride on the coat tails with voters having little choice
• Massive 18% swing in margin i Marine Parade. A disgrace for GCT
• Opposition candidates of the old mould continue to do badly and need to retire.
• m&d does stick as the VB smear appears to prove. Despite VW being the best opposition candidate with a stellar cast, did not cross the 40% and the winning margin is 20%. The SDP banner might have also played a part. It certainly took its toll on Alec Tok and Teo Soh Lung who did rather badly despite their credentials. Compare JJ Yee, a newbie and an unknown whose performance under WP banner is telling. Some allowance is to be given for Charles Chong's negative perception
• Looks like Bookies and their followers better stick to horse and soccer
• Most comical moment - Desmond blames his bad performance to 3 cornered fight in TV interview and as expected he lost his deposit.
• Yaw does better than Low in Hougang. Maybe voters wanted to build a buffer
• Credit to Chiam for having a go and delivering a decent set of results despite 2 heavy weights in PAP slate
• PM's margin increases against trend and only PAP's constituency to see a margin increase and ironically courtesy of JBJ' son. Looks like the voters are not into bicycle thieves yet.
• Lina Chiam, JJ Yee and Gerald Giam make it to Parliament as NCMPs
• Suddenly PAP heavyweights promise to listen to "voices" and mathematically challenged Irene Ng says that they have received a strong mandate from Tampines voters despite margin swing of 11% against her team
• Jeanette Chong Aruldoss does better than expected while Tony Tan, Hazel Poa and Alex Tok did rather badly.
• People to watch out for at next GE - Vincent Wijeyasinghe, Nicole Seah, Tony Tan and JJ Yee
• Singapore East most vulnerable compared to West.
• GRC may be scrapped as it is no longer effective. Its strengh was making it difficult for opposition candidates to form GRC slates. This has clearly been surmounted in this GE. The stakes are too high as loss of GY is indicative.
  

 

[moneymind]

Something to add on 2016 election ...

- LKY, GCT and WKS may not be there anymore
- Interesting to see who will PAP send for Aljunied. no more ministers already.
- PP will be different with upgrading and if SPP can remain there for the next 5 years, chances are there to recover this lost land

 

[ivebert]

Any comments about Goh Meng Seng, the useless leader of NSP?

 

[serenditpity]

PAP prediction model accurate.

My prediction of PAP losing Aljunied and Hougang only turns out right.

http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?92009-PAP-believes-it-will-win-with-60-vote-share

• Worst ever results by PAP
• Loss of a Key Cabinet Minister - GY
• Lim Swee Say abandons ship to save his career by switching from Aljunied to East Coast GRC.
• Lim Swee Sway is now in the new marginal seat of East Coast and the new target for another opposition dream team. Will he swtich again. PAP slimmest margin now of 9%.
• Lim Hwee Hua might face defamation suit and the loss of her seat might help mitigate in her favour.
• Reform Party performs badly but KJ press interview shows man is very detached form reality
• Joo Chiat and Charles Chong in strife
• SDP's seats for hire candidates clearly outdo SDP own internal candidates. New party expected to be formed.
• Workers Party do extremely well with every one of their contesting candidates scoring 40% and above.
• NSP despite its good performance need to make a decision. A ship cannot have 2 masters nor a mountain with 2 tigers. Sebastian drags down Tony Tan and Hazel Poa
• Potong Pasir expected to see Premium level upgrading with freebies thrown in
• Kate Spade enters parliament - clear failure of the GRC systems where donkey and asses can ride on the coat tails with voters having little choice
• Massive 18% swing in margin i Marine Parade. A disgrace for GCT
• Opposition candidates of the old mould continue to do badly and need to retire.
• m&d does stick as the VB smear appears to prove. Despite VW being the best opposition candidate with a stellar cast, did not cross the 40% and the winning margin is 20%. The SDP banner might have also played a part. It certainly took its toll on Alec Tok and Teo Soh Lung who did rather badly despite their credentials. Compare JJ Yee, a newbie and an unknown whose performance under WP banner is telling. Some allowance is to be given for Charles Chong's negative perception
• Looks like Bookies and their followers better stick to horse and soccer
• Most comical moment - Desmond blames his bad performance to 3 cornered fight in TV interview and as expected he lost his deposit.
• Yaw does better than Low in Hougang. Maybe voters wanted to build a buffer
• Credit to Chiam for having a go and delivering a decent set of results despite 2 heavy weights in PAP slate
• PM's margin increases against trend and only PAP's constituency to see a margin increase and ironically courtesy of JBJ' son. Looks like the voters are not into bicycle thieves yet.
• Lina Chiam, JJ Yee and Gerald Giam make it to Parliament as NCMPs
• Suddenly PAP heavyweights promise to listen to "voices" and mathematically challenged Irene Ng says that they have received a strong mandate from Tampines voters despite margin swing of 11% against her team
• Jeanette Chong Aruldoss does better than expected while Tony Tan, Hazel Poa and Alex Tok did rather badly.
• People to watch out for at next GE - Vincent Wijeyasinghe, Nicole Seah, Tony Tan and JJ Yee
• Singapore East most vulnerable compared to West.
• GRC may be scrapped as it is no longer effective. Its strengh was making it difficult for opposition candidates to form GRC slates. This has clearly been surmounted in this GE. The stakes are too high as loss of GY is indicative.
  

 

[scroobal]

Spot on and your info accurate as usual. Don't be a stranger. We need all the help to get this country on the straight and narrow.

PAP prediction model accurate.

My prediction of PAP losing Aljunied and Hougang only turns out right.

http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?92009-PAP-believes-it-will-win-with-60-vote-share

 

[1sickpuppy II]

Something to add on 2016 election ...

- LKY, GCT and WKS may not be there anymore
- Interesting to see who will PAP send for Aljunied. no more ministers already.
- PP will be different with upgrading and if SPP can remain there for the next 5 years, chances are there to recover this lost land

I seriously doute Chiam will be there too. Not that I look down on him or what but his age is catching up too.

 

[streetsmart73]

I seriously doute Chiam will be there too. Not that I look down on him or what but his age is catching up too.

hi there


1. bro, there is an even older broken record man!
2. apparently, missing last nite.
3. nevertheless, chiam is no loser.

 

[serenditpity]

Well, I told GMS and his team this Jan that they should field an A team in tampines and campaign relentlessly. It was there for the picking. But GMS and his team despite having done some fair bit of legwork, did not choose. He focused his attention on MP and the best chance to take tampines away was lost.

Spot on and your info accurate as usual. Don't be a stranger. We need all the help to get this country on the straight and narrow.

 

[knowwhatyouwantinlife]

Momentum for opposition to follow through and improve:

(1.) Firstly well done all Singaporeans and Opposition party members. You have shown the spirit that you all want a say in decisions made that concern you and your children's future. Its a good first step.

(2.) All other opposition parties should put aside their differences and form superstar teams like WP. Also they should start looking for talent, one who looks good, speaks well and has empathy for the people.

(3.) Do not waste effort contesting in areas where there are many rich people, Holland/Bukit Timah...FT policies, inflation, etc all are caused by them cos they are selfish and only care about making money.

(4.) Drive home the point that the ruling party is made up of many engineers, and they treat us like parts, and as long the system works, who cares about the parts? Engineers make good leaders when the country is very big, e.g. china, but when the country is small, it is better to have a leader who have the heart for its people.

(5.) Do not waste time on petty issues like ministers pay or price of HDB flats...that has totally nothing to do with the average folks as even if their pay were to go down or HDB prices go down, nothing would change...

(6.) Build a brand name, esp WP, leverage on social media...try to organise more charitable functions or events, record them and have it go viral...

(7.) Push for a standard English test (e.g. maybe GCE O LEVELS English standard) for FTs to take before allowing them to come in and work. E.g. if grade less than B4 then their application will be rejected. Quite similar to the IELTS when applying to work in Australia.

(8.) Sow dischord among the FTs. FTs have different clans, castes and religions, identify the strong and popular ones and try to convert them to oppo, and let the strong kick the weak out.

(9.) Walk the ground at least once a fortnight...give rice or simple staples to the needy...have meet the people's session fortnightly, offer them referrals and suggestions to meet their needs...

(10.) Lastly start collecting data and newspaper cuttings on Monday...compile them and present them in the next election...it only takes a few clicks of the mouse...

 

[SneeringTree]

I believe Lina Chiam will decline the seat, opting to be with Chiam See Tong in his advanced years. The question is whetehr the seat will then go to the fourth best performing team? If so, Nicole Seah should be able to take it up.

 

[knowwhatyouwantinlife]

Last but not least...start talking to Professors and other academics to find out what is wrong with our education system...talked to a dean from NUS couple of weeks back...he said NUS is only interested in attracting the talents with the most As to meet their KPIs...and also competition is rife with degrees, concurrent degrees and double masters/bachelor degrees being offered by many schools...so what if our children do not score 4As for their A levels or are late developers? They will feel discouraged, demoralized and be left very far behind...and also the parent may really have to work to death just to send them for overseas education...very important point to drive through at the hen...

 

[Gallego99]

...........................
(5.) Do not waste time on petty issues like ministers pay or price of HDB flats...that has totally nothing to do with the average folks as even if their pay were to go down or HDB prices go down, nothing would change...

Have we not learned anything from Wall Street?

 

[Charlie99]

Well, I told GMS and his team this Jan that they should field an A team in tampines and campaign relentlessly. It was there for the picking. But GMS and his team despite having done some fair bit of legwork, did not choose. He focused his attention on MP and the best chance to take tampines away was lost.

With your suggestion, and the out of favour Mah, if GMS had fielded himself, Tony, Hazel, Nicole and an individual who is one of the acceptable minority, they could have beaten the PAP 53 to 47.
What a missed opportunity.

 

[Gallego99]

I believe Lina Chiam will decline the seat, opting to be with Chiam See Tong in his advanced years. The question is whetehr the seat will then go to the fourth best performing team? If so, Nicole Seah should be able to take it up.

If anything, the opposition should just decline all 3 NCMP seats. After all we already have six opposition rep. in parliament,twice more than we had previously if you include Sylvia Lim.

 

[Silent88scope]

• Worst ever results by PAP
• Loss of a Key Cabinet Minister - GY
• Lim Swee Say abandons ship to save his career by switching from Aljunied to East Coast GRC.
• Lim Swee Sway is now in the new marginal seat of East Coast and the new target for another opposition dream team. Will he swtich again. PAP slimmest margin now of 9%.
• Lim Hwee Hua might face defamation suit and the loss of her seat might help mitigate in her favour.
• Reform Party performs badly but KJ press interview shows man is very detached form reality
• Joo Chiat and Charles Chong in strife
• SDP's seats for hire candidates clearly outdo SDP own internal candidates. New party expected to be formed.
• Workers Party do extremely well with every one of their contesting candidates scoring 40% and above.
• NSP despite its good performance need to make a decision. A ship cannot have 2 masters nor a mountain with 2 tigers. Sebastian drags down Tony Tan and Hazel Poa
• Potong Pasir expected to see Premium level upgrading with freebies thrown in
• Kate Spade enters parliament - clear failure of the GRC systems where donkey and asses can ride on the coat tails with voters having little choice
• Massive 18% swing in margin i Marine Parade. A disgrace for GCT
• Opposition candidates of the old mould continue to do badly and need to retire.
• m&d does stick as the VB smear appears to prove. Despite VW being the best opposition candidate with a stellar cast, did not cross the 40% and the winning margin is 20%. The SDP banner might have also played a part. It certainly took its toll on Alec Tok and Teo Soh Lung who did rather badly despite their credentials. Compare JJ Yee, a newbie and an unknown whose performance under WP banner is telling. Some allowance is to be given for Charles Chong's negative perception
• Looks like Bookies and their followers better stick to horse and soccer
• Most comical moment - Desmond blames his bad performance to 3 cornered fight in TV interview and as expected he lost his deposit.
• Yaw does better than Low in Hougang. Maybe voters wanted to build a buffer
• Credit to Chiam for having a go and delivering a decent set of results despite 2 heavy weights in PAP slate
• PM's margin increases against trend and only PAP's constituency to see a margin increase and ironically courtesy of JBJ' son. Looks like the voters are not into bicycle thieves yet.
• Lina Chiam, JJ Yee and Gerald Giam make it to Parliament as NCMPs
• Suddenly PAP heavyweights promise to listen to "voices" and mathematically challenged Irene Ng says that they have received a strong mandate from Tampines voters despite margin swing of 11% against her team
• Jeanette Chong Aruldoss does better than expected while Tony Tan, Hazel Poa and Alex Tok did rather badly.
• People to watch out for at next GE - Vincent Wijeyasinghe, Nicole Seah, Tony Tan and JJ Yee
• Singapore East most vulnerable compared to West.
• GRC may be scrapped as it is no longer effective. Its strengh was making it difficult for opposition candidates to form GRC slates. This has clearly been surmounted in this GE. The stakes are too high as loss of GY is indicative.
  

I foresee that MIW will continue to make use of GRC to their advantage. That is how they tilt the level of playing field and they will even fine tune it further so that the oppositions will have lesser chance of winning.

Without the GRC, the MIW will have lost many seats by now.

 

[Charlie99]

I foresee that MIW will continue to make use of GRC to their advantage. That is how they tilt the level of playing field and they will even fine tune it further so that the oppositions will have lesser chance of winning.

Without the GRC, the MIW will have lost many seats by now.

To be fair and just, and to achieve a First World Parliament, I suggest that the PAP government forthwith amend the Constitution to abolish GRC.

 

[winners]

I concur. The PAPies will never abandon the GRC system, otherwise, they will die a slow and embarrassing death eventually.

 

[winners]

I foresee that MIW will continue to make use of GRC to their advantage. That is how they tilt the level of playing field and they will even fine tune it further so that the oppositions will have lesser chance of winning.

Without the GRC, the MIW will have lost many seats by now.

I concur. The PAPies will never abandon the GRC system, otherwise, they will die a slow and embarrassing death eventually.

 

[shOUTloud]

I think Marine Parade, East Coast and Tampines GRCs all can be cultivated from now on for the next GE. GCT will retire after this. Lim SWee Say is very weak at EC while MBT, nothing more to say.

 

[Char_Azn]

Unlikely they will abandon the GRC system. The opposition gain ground this election mainly coz of some PAP screw up

Those screw up have already been addressed(MRT signal change, limitation of FT and flooding market with a lot of new flats) and within the next 2 years things will improve. The opposition cannot continue to bank on PAP screw up to make inroads

The one thing that the opposition still has an upper hand over the PAP is
1)pple's desire to want more opposition voice in Parliament
2)engaging the ground

The first of which nothing the PAP can do. The 2nd is an image PAP have built over the years and never realize how bad it got until this election. If they managed to improve that image, it will be a lot harder for the opposition next election