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Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Cthulhu

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Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

In more simple terms, it means that 2 or more events need not be related just because they happened one after the other.

For example, Air France 447 crashed after I farted. I cannot say my fart can cause airplanes to crash without further evidence.

Another example. I went to sleep hugging my textbook. The next day I score 100/100 in my test. I cannot say that hugging a textbook makes me score full marks in my test without further evidence.

Another example. 3 deaths happen in quick succession in a school. Although suspicious at face value, I cannot say all 3 deaths are related without further evidence to connect them
 

Lee Hsien Tau

Alfrescian
Loyal
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

In more simple terms, it means that 2 or more events need not be related just because they happened one after the other.

For example, Air France 447 crashed after I farted. I cannot say my fart can cause airplanes to crash without further evidence.

Another example. I went to sleep hugging my textbook. The next day I score 100/100 in my test. I cannot say that hugging a textbook makes me score full marks in my test without further evidence.

Another example. 3 deaths happen in quick succession in a school. Although suspicious at face value, I cannot say all 3 deaths are related without further evidence to connect them





ST June 30, 2006
Prosecution gets what it asked for in McCrea case
By Chong Chee Kin

THE Michael McCrea case is special, almost as special as the relationship he shared with the man he killed.

First, the Australian government asked the Singapore Government to promise it will not execute McCrea if he is extradited. Then it became apparent that he would not have faced the gallows anyway, since the charges brought against him would not have led to an execution on conviction.

McCrea's lawyer Kelvin Lim dismissed the suggestion that the charges were reduced because of the Government's promise to Australia. He insists that the facts support his argument that McCrea did not commit murder.

'It's quite clear that it is not murder. How can it be murder when there was a sudden and grave provocation from the victims? McCrea was attacked and hit back in self-defense,' he said.
 

Lee Hsien Tau

Alfrescian
Loyal
You don't need to be a Nobel Laureate to be able to reason, when double murders are committed, one after the other, with a relatively short lapse of time in between, by one and the same person, that even if it wasn't beyond reasonable doubt the first murder was pre-meditated, the second can but only be deemed to be, unless it can be proven that it was committed with a weapon of mass destruction, the murderer had genocidal tendencies, or else transforms into something uncannily green and insurmountably strong like the HULK when provoked. In other words, the motivation for the second murder is pivotal in determining whether pre-meditation can conceivably be construed for both. The burden should then be on the defense to positively prove lack of motive for the second murder in the backdrop of the first (including the motive of silencing a witness that could produce a potentially damning 'frontline' insight into the initial murder). The defense could of course then attempt to allude to the possibility that the murders may not have been committed by one and the same person. Lightning has been known to strike twice, but in such dastardly close timing and proximity? I'll buy that argument when I win Lotto America.
 

Lee Hsien Tau

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By Chris Summers
BBC News Online

A wealthy British businessman in Australia is fighting extradition to Singapore where he could face the death penalty if convicted of a bizarre double murder.

Michael McCrea, 44, from Nottingham, left his luxury apartment in Singapore's Balmoral Park district in January only days after his chauffeur, Kho Nai Guan, 46, and a Chinese woman known only as Miss Susan were found strangled.

Their decomposing bodies were found in a car parked in Orchard Towers, a seedy corner of Singapore popular among American sailors trawling for Thai and Filipino prostitutes.

Whoever killed them left dried flowers and other love tokens around the body of the woman, who is believed to be an illegal immigrant and was Mr Kho's girlfriend.

Straits Times reporter Chong Chee Kin said love letters, a champagne glass and a corkscrew were among the items found in the car.

Singapore says it has a prima facie case against Mr McCrea, a successful investment adviser and tax expert who was arrested in Melbourne in May along with his personal assistant Audrey Ong, 22.

But Mr McCrea has protested his innocence and has written to an Australian newspaper reporter giving his version of events.

Sue Hewitt, a reporter with the Sunday Herald Sun, told BBC News Online: "He said his chauffeur was involved with the Triads (Chinese organised criminals) and had gambling debts.

"He said he was there with Miss Ong when there was a knock at the door and two men with Samurai swords came in and chopped him on the head and hand."

She said: "He said he passed out in a pool of blood and when he came to the men had taken Mr Kho and his Chinese girlfriend."

Ms Hewitt said: "According to the prison authorities he does have injuries which are consistent with that claim."

Singapore has one of the highest per capita rates number of executions in the world with around 25 people a year being hanged for murder or drug trafficking.

The government has promised Australia it will waive the death penalty if Mr McCrea is returned and convicted.

But his solicitor, Erskine Rodan, said the Singapore government was not able to guarantee this undertaking because the judiciary was independent.

Mr Rodan said: "In the past the president has commuted some death sentences but never in a case like this."

He said it was the first time Singapore had sought to extradite a foreigner for trial on a capital murder charge and he said he had grave misgivings about Singapore's undertaking not to impose a death penalty.

Mr McCrea and Miss Ong face a four-day extradition hearing in Melbourne in November.

Mr McCrea was arrested when police attended a domestic dispute at his home in Melbourne, where he lived with his Australian wife, Brunetta, who is five months pregnant, and his son Callum, who is three.

They checked his passport and then discovered he was wanted in Singapore.

Mr McCrea, who was known in Singapore as Mike Townsend, ran a company called April Investments which helped many British and Australian expatriates with their tax problems.

The publisher of The Expat magazine, in which he advertised, said Mr McCrea was appealing to the 100,000 British, American and Australian expatriates who work in Singapore.

Chris Cheney said: "He was advising people on how to reduce their tax exposure when they returned home."

Because many expats receive tax-free salaries and other benefits, they often face large tax bills when they move back to their home countries.

Mr McCrea, a former life assurance salesman in Nottingham who moved to the Far East in the 1980s, advised clients on how to use offshore accounts to avoid tax.

Mr Cheney said there was no suggestion Mr McCrea was doing anything illegal.

Australian law will not allow anyone - whether or not they are an Australian citizen - to be extradited if they face the death penalty.

Mr McCrea's barrister Greg Hughan told BBC News Online: "We are opposing the extradition application. In fact we are busting for a fight."

He said: "Mr McCrea is a British citizen, originally from the Nottingham area, and he says he wants to go back to Britain."

Mr Rodan said his client, who was being held in Port Phillip prison near Melbourne, was "tense and agitated" as he waited to learn his fate.

The last time a British citizen was executed in Singapore was in 1996, when Londoner John Scripps was hanged for the murder of a South African engineer.


By Chris Summers
BBC News Online

A British businessman facing extradition to Singapore for a double murder has written to BBC News Online from jail in Australia to protest his innocence.

"There is a lynch mob waiting for me in Singapore," writes British businessman Michael McCrea in a letter from his Australian prison cell.

Mr McCrea, 44, a Falklands War veteran from Nottingham, is living through a nightmare and sees no end in sight.

He denies murdering two people in Singapore - one of whom was not only a Triad but also a member of the ruling People's Action Party - and is terrified of being extradited back there to stand trial.

Mr McCrea said he had received "zero help" from the British High Commission in Melbourne and had no response to a letter to Prime Minister Tony Blair.

He faces an extradition hearing on 12 November and he fears Australia will believe Singapore's assurances about not executing him if he is found guilty.

Mr McCrea writes from his cell in Port Philip prison near Melbourne: "The trial is already a foregone conclusion...I need some help. I need public opinion behind me.

"How can a British citizen be sent to a Third World country which still carries the death penalty on two charges of homicide when the only mandatory punishment is death."

Ten months ago Mr McCrea was living a life of luxury in Singapore, running a successful business and looking forward to a growing family.

But everything changed one night in January when there was a knock at the door of his luxury apartment in Singapore's Balmoral Park district.

Mr McCrea said he was attacked with a cleaver - receiving severe injuries to his head and hand - and left for dead.

When he recovered consciousness he found his chauffeur, Kho Nai Guan, 46, and the chauffeur's Chinese girlfriend were missing.

They were later found strangled in the Daewoo Chairman limousine which Mr Kho used to chauffeur around Mr McCrea.

Their decomposing bodies were found in a car parked in Orchard Towers, a seedy corner of otherwise squeaky-clean Singapore.

Australian Philip Stearman, who shared a cell with Mr McCrea for several months after his arrest in May this year, said he was a "bloody nice guy" who was being framed for a crime he did not commit.

He said Mr McCrea had wounds - included a four-inch gash on his forehead - which were consistent with his story.

Timetable
1 Jan 2002: McCrea says he was attacked by Triads who took away Mr Guan
5 Jan: Mr McCrea, with Miss Ong, flies to London for medical treatment
7 Jan: The bodies of Mr Guan and his girlfriend found
29 May: Mr McCrea arrested in Melbourne
12 Nov: Mr McCrea faces extradition hearing

Mr Stearman, speaking from his home in the Australian outback, said: "Never mind the trial, he won't last 15 minutes in a Singapore jail.

"The Singapore newspapers have accused him of being a rapist, a conman, a tax fraud, a woman basher and one of the victims was a Triad.

"Gang members in jail will have read the papers just like everyone else and they think he has killed one of their own. If he is sent back to Singapore you may as well send flowers."

He said he understood Mr McCrea's co-accused Audrey Ong had changed her initial statement - which had supported his version of events - after the Singaporean Government allowed her relatives to visit her in Australia.

Mr Stearman said: "I really feel sorry for him. I know when someone is being set up and he has been set up a treat."

He said Mr McCrea had only learned after Guan's death that he was a Triad who owed thousands of pounds in gambling debts to other gangsters and also took a synthetic drug called ice.

"Mick told me he gave Guan a S$26,000 Christmas bonus only a few days before all this happened," said Mr Stearman.

A Foreign Office spokeswoman told BBC News Online: "Our consular office are in contact with him and his next of kin, his spouse."

She said: "We cannot intervene in the extradition. It is a matter between Singapore and Australia. We have no locus to intervene.

"Our interest is to ensure that he has proper legal representation and is properly looked after in prison."

Steven Jacobi, of Fair Trials Abroad, said that while Singapore's criminal justice system was generally considered fair it did have a record of pursuing political enemies of the ruling party.
 

Lee Hsien Tau

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ABC Local Radio
Federal Government faces tough extradition decision
PM Archive - Tuesday, 15 July , 2003 18:18:00
Reporter: Natasha Simpson

TANYA NOLAN: The Federal Government is facing a sensitive decision on whether to extradite a man to Singapore, which lawyers fear could result in his death.

British national Michael McCrea is wanted over a double-murder, and his lawyers believe Singaporean Government assurances he won't be executed, aren't legally enforceable.

They want the Australian Government to ensure Mr McCrea will have time to appeal if his extradition is ordered. But the Attorney-General's office has told them there'll be no grace period.

NATASHA SIMPSON: Michael McCrea was working in Singapore when his chauffer and the driver's girlfriend were found murdered. The British expat has strenuously denied killing them but after the incident he fled to Melbourne, where his wife and two children live, and was detained over visa irregularities.

Late last year, a Melbourne Magistrate found McCrae was eligible for extradition but Justice Minister Chris Ellison has to approve his return to Singapore. The double-murder charge carries a mandatory death sentence and Australian policy prohibits the extradition of someone facing a capital offence.

While the Singaporean Government has given an undertaking McCrae won't be executed, his lawyer, John Maitland, has shown ABC News constitutional advice suggesting his client could still be sent to his death.

JOHN MAITLAND: We have had advice from a Queen's Counsel here in Melbourne, Mr Gerry Nash, and it's backed up by some leading academics in Singapore that by operation of the Singapore Constitution, no undertaking or assurance can provide a watertight undertaking.

In other words, the assurance - we haven't even received an undertaking - the assurance from the Government of Singapore would not guarantee to either our government or Mr McCrae that he would not have the death penalty carried out.

NATASHA SIMPSON: It's advice the President of the Australian Council for Civil Liberties, Terry O'Gorman says the Government should take very seriously.

TERRY O'GORMAN: When Australia is likely to be party to an extradition which has a high probability of someone being put to death in another country, the Australian Government has to proceed extremely carefully, and very much with a focus on our long-standing policy of not extraditing people to countries where the death penalty is likely.

NATASHA SIMPSON: Justice Minister Chris Ellison says he's waiting for advice on the new information before him.

CHRIS ELLISON: Australia has no reason to doubt that a country like Singapore would not stick to its word, and we've had undertakings in the past from countries who have abided by them. We have not had any experience where an undertaking has not been adhered to be another country.

NATASHA SIMPSON: McCrae's legal team fears if an extradition warrant is signed, Singaporean authorities will act before any appeal can be considered and John Maitland says advice from the Attorney-General's office indicates there won't be a period of grace for legal intervention to stop them.

JOHN MAITLAND: What concerns us is that if in fact a decision went against Mr McCrae the Singapore authorities, if they have a member here in Melbourne, could jump in their hired car, go out to the jail with a warrant for the release of Mr McCrae and have him bundled on a Singapore Airlines jet off to what we would say is an unfair trial in the gallows without affording Mr McCrae any time to have the court review the minister's decision, which could in fact be quite wrong.

NATASHA SIMPSON: Mr Maitland maintains if his client is sent anywhere, he should be deported to Britain for visa offences.

The British High Commission says it can't intervene in the process, but if Mr McCrae is deported to England, the British Government would seek absolute assurances from Singaporean authorities that he wouldn't face capital or corporal punishment if he was sent back to Singapore, assurances they would likely accept.

TANYA NOLAN: Natasha Simpson with that report, and there'll be more on that story in ABC TV news at seven o'clock.
 

Lee Hsien Tau

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The Straits Times
July 10, 2006
By Andy Ho

Two criminal cases were in the headlines in recent weeks. In Sydney, 12 jurors unanimously found Ram Puneet Tiwary guilty of killing Tony Tan Poh Chuan and Tay Chow Lyang on Sept 15, 2003. All involved were Singaporeans. Tiwary is likely to be sentenced to two life sentences or 40 years.

In Singapore, Briton Michael McCrea killed his Singaporean driver Kho Nai Guan on Jan 2, 2002, and, a day later, Kho's girlfriend, a China national called Lan Ya Ming. After a bench trial (one without a jury), McCrea was sentenced to 24 years' jail.

Granted that their individual circumstances were different, a jury trial (in Australia) led to a longer sentence than a bench trial (in Singapore), even though both cases involved double killings.

Some people feel that Singapore should return to trial by jury. They say we should look at Japan, which passed a law in 2004 to implement a jury system in 2009. At the very least, they say, those charged with serious crimes in Singapore should have the option of a jury trial.

Would that improve the criminal justice system? Many factors say no.



What on earth is this 'kill' word? Genocide (Mass Murder)? Homicide (pre-Meditated Murder)? Culpable homicide (Man-slaughter)? So reluctant to dial 'M'? Further down in the commentary,



Jurors are amateur adjudicators. They have inherent limits in, first, time - their lives and work schedules cannot be interrupted indefinitely; second, experience - by design, jurors have little or none; and, third, resources - jurors have neither staff nor researchers to help them.

In Singapore, jury trials lasted from 1826 until 1960, when they became restricted to capital offences. In the first reading to amend the Criminal Procedure Bill in 1959 for this purpose, then Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew argued that juries could be swayed by eloquent defense lawyers.

In his 2000 memoirs, Mr Lee said he had himself secured the acquittal of four alleged murderers in a 1950 riot case - as was his professional duty to do so - in part by working on the weaknesses of the jury. That left him with 'grave doubts about the practical value of the jury system in Singapore'.

In 1970, juries were abolished altogether. Speaking during the second reading of the Criminal Procedure Bill for this purpose, Mr Lee argued that juries seemed 'overwhelmed' by the burden of finding a man guilty of a capital offence. After the second reading, the Bill was referred to a select committee, where Mr Lee had an exchange with Mr David Marshall, 'then our most successful criminal lawyer, (who) claimed he had 99 acquittals out of 100 cases he had defended for murder', as Mr Lee put it in his memoirs.

When Mr Lee asked him if the 99 had been wrongly charged, Mr Marshall replied that it was not for him to judge but to defend them, which only buttressed Mr Lee's point that a lawyer with the requisite oratorical skills and flair for the dramatic might just be able to sway juries.

In the select committee too, as Judge of Appeal Andrew Phang pointed out in a 1983 article he wrote while still a tutor at the National University of Singapore law faculty, two sets of jurors offered testimony which shed some light on how juries functioned here at the time. (The inner sanctum of jury deliberations is traditionally off limits to everyone else in virtually all jurisdictions.)

First, the foreman in a case dubbed the Peeping Tom murder revealed that a 4-3 decision had been reached rather than the minimum 5-2 required by law. However, he had erroneously reported a unanimous verdict. Realizing his mistake later on, he notified the High Court Registrar but, by then, no reversals could be made. The foreman revealed that at least four of the seven jurors were totally confused by the terms 'majority' and 'unanimous'.

Second, there was testimony that many jurors in what was dubbed the Murder By Car case could not even read the oath properly. Moreover, one juror had called another afterwards to say he was shocked at the death sentence, which he did not know was mandated by law. However, he mistakenly spoke to the juror's brother, who informed the killer's lawyer.

At select committee, the juror admitted to these facts but insisted that jury trials should be abolished. Clearly, he would have found the accused guilty of a lesser charge had he known about the mandatory death sentence. Another juror also expressed similar distress upon learning about the death sentence after the fact. These lent support to Mr Lee's point that local juries were hesitant to convict because of the death penalty.

Overall, at the time, public support for serving on juries was clearly less than enthusiastic. Unsurprisingly, the Bill passed with little opposition.

Would a more educated citizenry today make for better jurors?

We do know that they would certainly cost more. Operating a jury system will incur costs in gathering names to draw a list of possible jurors. There have to be staff to summon jurors, answer queries, reschedule those with conflicts, check jurors in on the first day of jury duty, and escort them to the right courtroom. In court, they must be instructed again and either is chosen or sent home. Those chosen must be then be sheltered and sometimes sequestered throughout the trial.

Costs are also incurred by jurors and their employers in terms of lost time, wages and productivity.

Also, jury trials are simply longer than bench trials. Jurors must be selected and instructed anew in each case. Motions must be filed and hearings conducted to shield jurors from inadmissible evidence. By contrast, in a bench trial, the judge can listen to all evidence submitted and decide which is not admissible.

Moreover, lawyers typically reiterate an important fact many times to make sure that no juror misses it. Thus trying a case will just take longer than a bench trial.

And as each trial gets longer, fewer can be tried, witnesses may move away, their recall could fade and some may even die in the interim.

These not inconsiderable costs aside, the cultural context to jury trials must be kept in mind. It was the fear of government oppression in the form of misguided legislatures, iniquitous judges or overzealous prosecutors that led Americans to favor divided over efficient government. Jury trials were part of that plan: Having both judge and jury approve each judgment meant that one would need to corrupt both court and jury to cause a miscarriage of justice.

Not so in Singapore. The idea here is that it is far better to choose the right personnel than look to checks and balances in the criminal justice system. With responsible and competent officials in charge, checks and balances are less important; if they are not, no checks and balances will suffice anyway.

Here, at bench trials, the judge functions to make sure that police and prosecutors have made no obvious errors in their pre-trial investigations which help to establish guilt. Such an approach trades off what would be long drawn-out jury trials for efficient administrative decisions.



When it's so tongue-tripping just negotiating the 'M' word, how could the Straits Times cover Ram Puneet Tiwary's sentencing. McCrea was sentenced to 24 years jail. No blue collar. If his stay in the slammer is uneventful, he'd be out in 18. That's Singapore perverted justice.

Ram Puneet Tiwary hails from an extended family that boasts several legal experts on Singapore law. Nobody told him Australian justice was different. Nobody told him to pay for his baseball bat in cold hard cash. Nobody told him to vary his methods a little. Nobody told him his plan stank a mile off. Nobody told him two hour breaks in-between 'killings' was pushing his luck (And no, not even if he took a day off in-between either). Nobody told him he'd get life. Here's your update.



Channel News Asia
06 November 2006
By Lau Joon-Nie

Singaporean Ram Tiwary has been sentenced to life imprisonment by an Australian court for bludgeoning his two flatmates to death with a baseball bat.

The three men, all Singaporeans, had shared an apartment in the eastern Sydney suburb of Kingsford at the time of the murder in September 2003.

They were all engineering students at the University of New South Wales.

The New South Wales Supreme Court heard that Tiwary, then 24, had owed Mr Tay Chow Lyang more than five thousand Australian dollars (over US$3,800) in rent.

Tiwary was handed a 25-year jail sentence for killing Mr Tay.

But he received a concurrent life sentence without parole for murdering Mr Tan Poh Chuan two hours after attacking Mr Tay.

In passing sentence, the court took into account his youth and the brutality of the attacks, especially on Mr Tan which showed that it had been planned.

Tiwary was found guilty after a 16-day jury trial which ended in June.



In a 13-page judgment, Justice Michael Adams described the killings as 'extremely grave' and 'taken together, readily fall into the most serious class of murder'.

'I do not doubt there are some cases where the crimes are so heinous that, simply put, a life sentence is deserved and the only way in which adequate punishment and retribution can be reflected in the sentence is by way of the imposition of sentence without the possibility of release,' he wrote.

Said Justice Adams: 'The murder of Mr Tan is the more serious of the two ... because it followed the first and thus, permits no room for doubt that it was premeditated and deliberately undertaken in full knowledge of the nature of the crime; I consider, also, that it was committed in order to remove a potential incriminating witness from the scene in an attempt to avoid justice.'
 
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