https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-05-31/doc-ihvhiqay2786822.shtml
官媒评中国防长赴香会：美帝在鸿门宴埋下刀斧手了吗
官媒评中国防长赴香会：美帝在鸿门宴埋下刀斧手了吗
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原标题：今年新“鸿门宴”，美帝埋下刀斧手了吗？
文/胡一刀
在新加坡举行的”香格里拉会议“今天拉开帷幕，对中国来说，它有点像一年一度的”鸿门宴“，因为每次，美国都会纠集一帮马仔，攻击中国。但中国从来没怵过，都是坦坦荡荡赴会。
今年尤其不同以往，参会的美国代理防长沙纳汉，就是那个刚一上任就大喊三声”中国、中国、中国“的沙纳汉，据说想在香会上突出表现一下，早日去掉头衔上的”代理“两个字。
而中国这边，8年来首次派出以国防部长率队的代表团，这规格令主办方都很激动。 这次香会上，除了中美防长各自都被安排一场大会发言外，中美防长将会举行一场会晤。
中美防长会有怎样的交锋呢？世界很多人都屏住呼吸等待。
壹
会议还没开始，坊间就开始分析沙纳汉会在哪几个方向攻击中国。
从美国媒体相关分析和知情人士透露的“小道消息”来看，沙纳汉在6月1日上午的发言中，“主要突出在中国不断在西太平洋—印度洋区域加强海上活动、提高军事存在的背景下，要给美国印太战略加入一些新的策略”。
第一，美国人还是要借着香格里拉对话会这个场合推动“印太战略”。去年印度总理莫迪在香会上的发言，对“印太战略”泼了一盆凉水。而且这一年来，印度与中国的关系持续不断改善。这就让“印太战略”很尴尬了，但是美国人显然不甘心让它变成烂尾工程。
为了推行“印太战略”， 美军太平洋司令部，都改成了“印度-太平洋司令部”，如果真成了烂尾工程，别人不说，特朗普的面子也搁不住。
第二，针对中国在印太区域海上活动的色彩非常明显。美国人不但在“国家战略安全”报告中，把中国列为系统性风险，五角大楼出台的《国防战略报告》也是如此，其中提的最多的就是“中国舰船及飞机在印太海域表现得越来越活跃”。
而现在美国面临的尴尬是，自己把摊子铺得太大，而且把中国在印太海域的活动列为自己要限制的目标，所以搞得自己任务繁重。负责太平洋巡逻的第七舰队已经严重超负荷运转，去年就曾经发生多次严重撞船事件，船毁人亡。
第三，与中国进行军事对抗的意味很浓。过去一年来，美国方面明显提高了在南海搞所谓“自由航行”的频率，另一方面，美国不断高调宣扬中国在南海搞“军事化”。但是，真正屡屡派遣舰机闯入南海，拉着盟友在南海搞演习，不都是美国人的“军事化”举动吗？
所以，这么看，沙纳汉曾经喊出“中国！中国！中国！”，这次“鸿门宴”肯定对中国不会降低调门。因为这位代理防长还想“转正”呢，而现在特朗普政府对中国的姿态仍是“极限施压”，所以这位听话的代理防长一定会予以配合。
例如，连特朗普极力要建边界墙，议会不给钱，怎么办？也是借“紧急状态”，让沙纳汉从国防经费里拿出钱来建墙。
当然，美国人在今年的“鸿门宴”上可能会感受到东南亚国家对中国态度的变化。作为“鸿门宴”的地理位置上的东道主，新加坡曾经有一段时间跟中国闹别扭，现在已经“幡然悔悟”。
此外，舆论还关心，日本、欧洲这些美国的小兄弟，会不会在香会上帮腔煽风点火。
中国国防部长魏凤和5月29日抵达新加坡访问，与新加坡国防部长黄永宏举行了双边会议。黄永宏在会后发出推文说，双方答应将两国国防交流和安全合作协议升级，增进两军的互动与交流。而且，两军在2020年还要举行海上联合演习。
而且，这次魏凤和防长在访问新加坡期间获得高规格待遇，包括会见新加坡总理李显龙，并在香格里拉对话会6月2日的会程中发表主题演讲。这是自2011年以来中国首次派国防部长出席香会。
贰
显然，如果南海恢复平静，美国的“被需要感”就会直线下降，它也少了推进“印太战略”、加强地区军事存在的最大抓手。这当然是美国最不愿意看到的。
所以，“鸿门宴”的另一个主办方、英国国际战略研究所亚洲分部执行主任赫胥利 （Dr。 Tim Huxley）急忙表态说，新加坡谋求增进与中国的关系，并不预示会降级与美国传统的军事合作关系。
赫胥利
赫胥利说，“现在，新中关系对新加坡来说必不可少。与此同时，我认为新加坡不想完全依赖中国，不希望看到中国在经济或者安全领域主导这个地区。因为这个原因，继续帮助美国军队在东南亚地区活动对新加坡来说至关重要。”
其实，看看过去一段时间，美国海军在南海搞“航行自由”的次数，你就能明白在南海，美国多么不想被冷落。而在这方面，美国仍会极力地抹黑、指责中国。
美国军舰最近一次闯南海是5月19日，当时驱逐舰“普雷贝尔”号（DDG-88）闯入我黄岩岛12海里内，执行所谓“自由航行”任务。这是一个月来，美国第三次派遣“普雷贝尔”号赴南海水域执行挑衅任务：
5月6日，美国海军“普雷贝尔”号、“钟云”号驱逐舰曾擅自进入中国南海岛礁邻近海域。而4月28日，“普雷贝尔号”曾经闯入我赤瓜礁地区12海里内执行“挑衅”任务。这些闯入都遭到解放军警告驱离。
但是，一个明显趋势是，进入2019年，美国海军军舰闯入南海显然比以往频繁得多。而且，五角大楼发布的2019年度《中国军力报告》宣称，“虽然中国停止了在南中国海的填海造岛活动，但是它继续在南沙群岛上实施军事化，包括部署反舰、防空导弹系统”。
然而，这还不是最耸人听闻的。
美国前太平洋舰队情报部主任詹姆斯⋅法内尔不久前渲染称，中国正在建造和筹备建造的航空母舰多达6艘，2015年到2018年中国建造的舰艇数量多达85艘，远远超过同期美国的22艘。中国也正在建造数量更多、性能更强的核潜艇。
詹姆斯⋅法内尔
他预计，11年后，中国海军舰艇数量将多达560艘以上。
最离谱的是，他说“中国在南海修建了7个人工岛，其中3个人工岛屿面积和珍珠港一样大，可以容纳航空母舰打击群，还修建了长达三千米的飞机跑道。但我们很少看到媒体报道说，中国在南海建造了3个珍珠港。”
法内尔还斩钉截铁地说，中国海军将在未来10年内成为一支名副其实的全球性海军力量，并对美国造成威胁。
叁
在美国人眼里，“中国控制南海只是第一步，拿下台湾则是更大的目标”。
比如，法内尔渲染说，“如果你想一下中国的第一优先目标，就是拿下台湾，这是中国‘崛起’和‘中国梦’的象征。所以他们必须控制南海，阻挡美国海军，也阻吓美国在菲律宾发起军事行动的可能性。”
正是在这种借口之下，美国人除了向南海派出更多频次的舰艇外，如今在台湾海峡的穿行次数也越来越多。
今年5月22日，美国第七舰队“普雷贝尔”号驱逐舰，以及“迪尔”号补给舰（USNS Walter S。 Diehl）穿行台湾海峡。
这也是自2019年以来，美国第五次派遣军舰航经台湾海峡。 此前4次美国军舰通过台湾海峡分别是1月24日、2月24日、3月24日与4月28日，而每次美方都派遣至少两艘军舰出航。 美国自去年7月以来，便把派遣军舰航经台湾海峡作为惯例。
据美国太平洋舰队公布的数据显示，从2007年以来到今年4月，美国军舰穿越台湾海峡共92次，其中最多的2次是在2015年和2016年，分别为11次和12次。特朗普上台后的前2年，美国军舰穿越台湾海峡年均只有4次，直到今年开始增加为每月一次。
但是，虽然2018年美舰穿越台湾海峡只有3次，创2007年以来的新低，但从特朗普政府改变对台军售模式、支持台湾参与国际组织到签署“台湾旅行法”等种种措施来看，创下美国政府历年之最，而且更强调从法律角度来强化美台关系。
这是我们必须加以警惕的，也是今后我们在台海与美国人博弈可能上升的原因所在。
正因为如今“南海”和“台海”两大因素交织，中美防长同时参加香会，也成为外界关注的最大热点之一。
据香会主办机构称，中美两国防长在出席对话会期间计划举行双边非正式会谈。这将是魏凤和与沙纳汉两人作为两国防长的首次面对面会谈，也是2011年6月美国防长盖兹与中国防长梁光烈在香会举行会谈后，首次上演香会中美防长会。
沙纳汉在乘飞机飞往新加坡途中对随行的美国媒体说，他与中国防长魏凤和的会谈时间不会很长，将讨论两国可以合作之处。至于那些他认为美国需要明确和坦率地讨论的事情，双方可以今后再谈。
沙纳汉还说，他出席对话会主要是来听别人怎么说，并谋求增进盟友和伙伴关系。这么看来，美中两国高级官员互怼、在香格里拉对话会期间激战的可能性似乎不大。
当前，美国政府对中国进行极限施压，在贸易政策和政治外交上，中美正在激烈地“掰手腕”。美国人很清楚，越是在这个时候，越是要管控住军事冲突风险。与中国这样的大国陷入战争，这也绝对不是美国想要的。
美军参联会主席邓福德上将说，中美两国军方都在努力，使得两军关系成为两国关系的稳定力量。鉴于美中两国军事对抗的可能性正在增加，他希望能够建立两军直接对话机制，以化解随时可能发生的武力冲突。
为什么在“鸿门宴”开始之前，美国人的调门突然开始降下来了？
刀哥觉得，还是南海周边国家及东南亚国家不希望中美发生冲突，因为南海越稳定，地区发展环境就越好。亚太这片区域已经成为当今世界经济增长率最高的地方。而当两头大象格斗时，它们脚下的草会被踩烂。“这个地区没有其他国家愿意看到美国和中国对打”。
根据香会主办机构透露，中国防长魏凤和将在6月2日的会议上，就中国在印太地区的角色发表“令人期待的”讲话，并接受现场提问。一位正在新加坡香会现场的专家告诉刀哥，这背后体现出我们基于开放、积极融合国际社会的心态。
而且，按照香会的规则，只有防长级别的人才有更长时间的发言权，好像是1小时，而非防长级别的只有15分钟。现在我们的南海建设已经摆在那，我们与周边国家合作的态度也摆在那，我们有底气向各方阐明自己的观点和立场。
对于美国，中国还是那个态度：我们希望对话，但也不害怕对抗。如果美方愿意对话，中方会坐下来，既讲 ‘礼’也讲 ‘理’；如果美方选择对抗，中方会站直腰杆，既奉劝，更奉陪。
美国人应该明白一个道理，“鸿门宴”上的吵架、比音量谁更大，并不会改变对方的政策，也不会得到一个理想的结果。如果美国执意要在南海地区挑起对抗，那只会在这个地区越来越不受欢迎。
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The official media commented on the defense chief’s visit to the Xianghui: Did the US emperor bury a knife in the banquet?
The official media commented on the defense chief’s visit to the Xianghui: Did the US emperor bury a knife in the banquet?
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Original title: This year's new "Hongmen Banquet", did the US emperor bury the knife and axe?
Text / Hu Yidao
The "Shangri-La Conference" held in Singapore kicked off today. For China, it is a bit like the annual "banquet", because every time, the United States will gather a bunch of horses to attack China. But China has never been smashed, and it is all frankly going to the meeting.
This year, especially in the past, the US agent who was in charge of the defense, Shanahan, was the Shanahan who screamed three times "China, China, and China" when he took office. He is said to want to highlight the performance at the incense club and get rid of the title as soon as possible. The word "agent" on the word.
On the Chinese side, for the first time in eight years, a delegation headed by the Minister of Defense was sent. This specification made the organizers very excited. At this incense, in addition to the Chinese and American defense chiefs each arranged a speech at the conference, the Chinese and US defense chiefs will hold a meeting.
What kind of confrontation will the China-US Defense Minister have? Many people in the world hold their breath and wait.
壹
The meeting has not yet begun, and the analysis of the Shananhan will attack China in several directions.
Judging from the "small news" revealed by relevant media analysis and informed sources in the United States, Shanahan’s speech on the morning of June 1st "mainly highlights the continuous maritime activities and the enhancement of military presence in China in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean region. In the background, we must add some new strategies to the US-Indian strategy."
First, the Americans still want to promote the "Indo-Pacific strategy" through the Shangri-La Dialogue. Last year, Indian Prime Minister Modi’s speech at the Xianghui Conference poured a cold water on the “Indian Strategy”. And the relationship between India and China has continued to improve over the years. This makes the "Indian strategy" very embarrassing, but the Americans are obviously not willing to let it become a bad project.
In order to implement the "Indian Strategy", the US Pacific Command has been changed to "India-Pacific Command". If it really becomes a bad project, others will not say that Trump's face can't stand.
Second, the color of China's activities in the Indian Ocean region is very obvious. Americans not only listed China as a systemic risk in the “National Strategic Security” report, but also the “National Defense Strategy Report” issued by the Pentagon. The most important one is “the more Chinese ships and aircraft perform in the Indo-Pacific region. The more active you are."
Now the United States is facing the embarrassment of spreading the stalls too much, and listing China’s activities in the Indian Ocean as its own target, so it has to do its own heavy tasks. The Seventh Fleet, which is responsible for the Pacific patrol, has been seriously overloaded. Last year, there were several serious collision incidents, and the ship was destroyed.
Third, the military confrontation with China is very strong. In the past year, the United States has significantly increased the frequency of so-called "free navigation" in the South China Sea. On the other hand, the United States has continuously promoted China's "militaryization" in the South China Sea. However, it is not always the "militaryization" of the Americans to send the warships into the South China Sea and pull allies to conduct exercises in the South China Sea.
Therefore, in this way, Shanahan once shouted "China! China! China!", this "Hongmen Banquet" will certainly not lower the adjustment of China. Because the agent's defense chief still wants to "turn positive", and now the Trump administration's attitude toward China is still "extreme pressure", so the obedient agency defense chief will certainly cooperate.
For example, even if Trump tries to build a boundary wall and the parliament does not give money, what should I do? It is also a "emergency state" that allows Shanahan to take money from the defense funds to build a wall.
Of course, Americans may feel the change in attitudes of Southeast Asian countries toward China at this year's "banquet." As a host of the “Hongmen Banquet” geographical location, Singapore has had a bit of awkwardness with China for a while, and now it has “repented”.
In addition, public opinion is also concerned that Japan, Europe and other small brothers in the United States will not help in the incense.
Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe arrived in Singapore on May 29 and held a bilateral meeting with Singapore Defense Minister Huang Yonghong. After the meeting, Huang Yonghong issued a tweet saying that the two sides agreed to upgrade the defense exchanges and security cooperation agreements between the two countries to enhance the interaction and exchanges between the two militaries. Moreover, the two armies will hold joint maritime exercises in 2020.
Moreover, Wei Feng and the defense chief received high-standard treatment during their visit to Singapore, including meeting with Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and delivering a keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 2. This is the first time since 2011 that China sent a Minister of Defense to attend the Xianghui.
贰
Obviously, if the South China Sea returns to calm, the United States’ “needed feelings” will plummet, and it will also reduce its ability to advance the “Indo-Pacific strategy” and strengthen the regional military presence. This is of course the last thing the United States wants to see.
Therefore, Dr. Tim Huxley, the other organizer of the “Hongmen Banquet” and the executive director of the Asian Division of the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, hurriedly stated that Singapore’s pursuit of relations with China does not indicate a downgrade and American tradition. Military cooperation.
Hercules
Hexley said, "Now, the Sino-Singapore relationship is indispensable for Singapore. At the same time, I don't think Singapore wants to rely entirely on China. I don't want to see China dominate the region in the economic or security field. For this reason, continue. Helping the US military to operate in Southeast Asia is critical to Singapore."
In fact, look at the number of times the US Navy has engaged in "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea in the past, and you can understand how much the United States does not want to be left out in the South China Sea. In this regard, the United States will still try to discredit and accuse China.
The last time the US warship was in the South China Sea was May 19, when the destroyer "Prebel" (DDG-88) broke into the 12-mile mile of Huangyan Island to perform the so-called "free navigation" mission. This is the third time that the United States has sent the "Prebel" to the South China Sea for the third time:
On May 6, the US Navy's "Prebel" and "Zhong Yun" destroyers had arbitrarily entered the waters adjacent to the South Island Reef in China. On April 28th, the "Prebel" once broke into the 12-mile mile of the Chigua Reef area to perform the "provocation" mission. These intrusions were all warned by the People’s Liberation Army.
However, a clear trend is that in 2019, the US Navy warships broke into the South China Sea more obviously than ever. Moreover, the Pentagon’s 2019 China Military Report declared that “although China has stopped reclamation in the South China Sea, it continues to militarize the Nansha Islands, including the deployment of anti-ship and air defense missile systems.”
However, this is not the most sensational.
The former US Pacific Fleet Intelligence Director James Fahner recently said that China is building and preparing to build up to six aircraft carriers. From 2015 to 2018, China built more than 85 ships, far more than the United States. 22 ships. China is also building a larger number of more powerful nuclear submarines.
James Finner
He predicted that after 11 years, the number of Chinese naval vessels will be more than 560.
The most outrageous is that he said that "China has built seven labor islands in the South China Sea, three of which are as large as Pearl Harbor, can accommodate aircraft carrier strike groups, and have built a three-kilometer runway. But we It is rare to see media reports that China has built three Pearl Harbors in the South China Sea."
Farnell also categorically stated that the Chinese navy will become a veritable global naval force in the next 10 years and pose a threat to the United States.
叁
In the eyes of the Americans, "China's control of the South China Sea is only the first step, and winning Taiwan is a bigger goal."
For example, Farnell said, "If you think about China's first priority, it is to win Taiwan. This is a symbol of China's 'rise' and 'Chinese dream.' So they must control the South China Sea and block the US Navy. Deterring the possibility of US military operations in the Philippines."
It is under this pretext that the Americans, in addition to sending more frequent ships to the South China Sea, are now crossing the Taiwan Strait more and more.
On May 22 this year, the US Seventh Fleet "Prebel" destroyer and the "Dir" supply ship (USNS Walter S. Diehl) traveled through the Taiwan Strait.
This is also the fifth time since 2019 that the United States has dispatched warships to sail through the Taiwan Strait. The previous four US warships passed through the Taiwan Strait on January 24, February 24, March 24, and April 28, and each time the US sent at least two warships to sail. Since July last year, the United States has used the practice of sending warships through the Taiwan Strait.
According to data released by the US Pacific Fleet, from 2007 to April this year, US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait for a total of 92 times, the most two of which were in 2015 and 2016, 11 and 12 respectively. In the first two years after Trump took office, the US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait only four times a year, and this year it began to increase to once a month.
However, although the US ship crossed the Taiwan Strait only three times in 2018, a new low since 2007, but from the Trump administration to change the arms sales model to Taiwan, support Taiwan's participation in international organizations to sign the "Taiwan Travel Law" and other measures. See, set the highest in the US government over the years, and more emphasis on strengthening US-Taiwan relations from a legal perspective.
This is why we must be vigilant and the reason why our game with the Americans in the Taiwan Strait may rise in the future.
It is precisely because of the two factors of "South China Sea" and "Taihai" that the Chinese and American defense leaders have participated in the incense association at the same time, and it has become one of the biggest hot spots of the outside world.
According to the organizer of the Xianghui Association, the two defense chiefs of China and the United States plan to hold bilateral informal talks during the dialogue. This will be the first face-to-face meeting between Wei Fenghe and Shanahan as the two defense chiefs. It is also the first time in June 2011 that US Defense Minister Gaith and Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie held talks at the Xianghui meeting. .
On the way to Singapore, Shanahan told the accompanying American media that his talks with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe would not be long and would discuss where the two countries can cooperate. As for those things that he believes the United States needs to discuss clearly and frankly, the two sides can talk about it in the future.
Shanahan also said that his attendance at the dialogue was mainly to listen to what others said and to seek to improve allies and partnerships. From this point of view, it seems unlikely that senior officials from the United States and China will fight each other during the Shangri-La dialogue.
At present, the US government is exerting extreme pressure on China. In terms of trade policy and political diplomacy, China and the United States are fiercely "smashing their wrists." Americans know very well that the more they are at this time, the more they have to control the risk of military conflict. It is definitely not what the United States wants in a war with a big country like China.
Admiral Deng Fu, chairman of the US Military Association, said that the Chinese and US militaryes are working hard to make the relations between the two militaries a stable force in the relations between the two countries. In view of the increasing possibility of military confrontation between the United States and China, he hopes to establish a direct dialogue mechanism between the two armed forces to resolve possible military conflicts at any time.
Why did the Americans’ tune suddenly begin to fall before the “banquet” began?
Knife believes that the countries around the South China Sea and Southeast Asian countries do not want conflicts between China and the United States, because the more stable the South China Sea, the better the regional development environment. This region of Asia-Pacific has become the world's highest economic growth rate. When the two elephants fight, the grass under their feet will be trampled. "No other country in this region is willing to see the United States and China fight."
According to the organizer of the Xianghui Association, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe will deliver a "promising" speech on the role of China in the Indo-Pacific region at the June 2 meeting and accept questions from the scene. An expert at the scene of the Singapore Fragrance Club told Knife that this is reflected in our open mind and active integration of the international community.
Moreover, according to the rules of the Fragrant Association, only the long-term level of talent has a longer say, as if it is 1 hour, not 15 minutes. Now that our construction of the South China Sea is already there, our attitude of cooperation with neighboring countries is also there. We have the confidence to explain our views and positions to all parties.
For the United States, China is still that attitude: we want dialogue, but we are not afraid of confrontation. If the US is willing to talk, the Chinese will sit down and talk about ‘礼礼’ and ‘理’; if the US chooses to confront, the Chinese will stand up straight, and both advise and accompany.
Americans should understand the truth. The quarrel on the "banquet" is bigger than the volume, and it will not change the other's policies, nor will it get an ideal result. If the United States insists on provoking confrontation in the South China Sea, it will only become increasingly unpopular in this region.
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Daily Military TOP5 Focus on Shangri-La Dialogue
Keywords : Nanhai Hongmen Ban Shanahan
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官媒评中国防长赴香会：美帝在鸿门宴埋下刀斧手了吗
官媒评中国防长赴香会：美帝在鸿门宴埋下刀斧手了吗
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原标题：今年新“鸿门宴”，美帝埋下刀斧手了吗？
文/胡一刀
在新加坡举行的”香格里拉会议“今天拉开帷幕，对中国来说，它有点像一年一度的”鸿门宴“，因为每次，美国都会纠集一帮马仔，攻击中国。但中国从来没怵过，都是坦坦荡荡赴会。
今年尤其不同以往，参会的美国代理防长沙纳汉，就是那个刚一上任就大喊三声”中国、中国、中国“的沙纳汉，据说想在香会上突出表现一下，早日去掉头衔上的”代理“两个字。
而中国这边，8年来首次派出以国防部长率队的代表团，这规格令主办方都很激动。 这次香会上，除了中美防长各自都被安排一场大会发言外，中美防长将会举行一场会晤。
中美防长会有怎样的交锋呢？世界很多人都屏住呼吸等待。
壹
会议还没开始，坊间就开始分析沙纳汉会在哪几个方向攻击中国。
从美国媒体相关分析和知情人士透露的“小道消息”来看，沙纳汉在6月1日上午的发言中，“主要突出在中国不断在西太平洋—印度洋区域加强海上活动、提高军事存在的背景下，要给美国印太战略加入一些新的策略”。
第一，美国人还是要借着香格里拉对话会这个场合推动“印太战略”。去年印度总理莫迪在香会上的发言，对“印太战略”泼了一盆凉水。而且这一年来，印度与中国的关系持续不断改善。这就让“印太战略”很尴尬了，但是美国人显然不甘心让它变成烂尾工程。
为了推行“印太战略”， 美军太平洋司令部，都改成了“印度-太平洋司令部”，如果真成了烂尾工程，别人不说，特朗普的面子也搁不住。
第二，针对中国在印太区域海上活动的色彩非常明显。美国人不但在“国家战略安全”报告中，把中国列为系统性风险，五角大楼出台的《国防战略报告》也是如此，其中提的最多的就是“中国舰船及飞机在印太海域表现得越来越活跃”。
而现在美国面临的尴尬是，自己把摊子铺得太大，而且把中国在印太海域的活动列为自己要限制的目标，所以搞得自己任务繁重。负责太平洋巡逻的第七舰队已经严重超负荷运转，去年就曾经发生多次严重撞船事件，船毁人亡。
第三，与中国进行军事对抗的意味很浓。过去一年来，美国方面明显提高了在南海搞所谓“自由航行”的频率，另一方面，美国不断高调宣扬中国在南海搞“军事化”。但是，真正屡屡派遣舰机闯入南海，拉着盟友在南海搞演习，不都是美国人的“军事化”举动吗？
所以，这么看，沙纳汉曾经喊出“中国！中国！中国！”，这次“鸿门宴”肯定对中国不会降低调门。因为这位代理防长还想“转正”呢，而现在特朗普政府对中国的姿态仍是“极限施压”，所以这位听话的代理防长一定会予以配合。
例如，连特朗普极力要建边界墙，议会不给钱，怎么办？也是借“紧急状态”，让沙纳汉从国防经费里拿出钱来建墙。
当然，美国人在今年的“鸿门宴”上可能会感受到东南亚国家对中国态度的变化。作为“鸿门宴”的地理位置上的东道主，新加坡曾经有一段时间跟中国闹别扭，现在已经“幡然悔悟”。
此外，舆论还关心，日本、欧洲这些美国的小兄弟，会不会在香会上帮腔煽风点火。
中国国防部长魏凤和5月29日抵达新加坡访问，与新加坡国防部长黄永宏举行了双边会议。黄永宏在会后发出推文说，双方答应将两国国防交流和安全合作协议升级，增进两军的互动与交流。而且，两军在2020年还要举行海上联合演习。
而且，这次魏凤和防长在访问新加坡期间获得高规格待遇，包括会见新加坡总理李显龙，并在香格里拉对话会6月2日的会程中发表主题演讲。这是自2011年以来中国首次派国防部长出席香会。
贰
显然，如果南海恢复平静，美国的“被需要感”就会直线下降，它也少了推进“印太战略”、加强地区军事存在的最大抓手。这当然是美国最不愿意看到的。
所以，“鸿门宴”的另一个主办方、英国国际战略研究所亚洲分部执行主任赫胥利 （Dr。 Tim Huxley）急忙表态说，新加坡谋求增进与中国的关系，并不预示会降级与美国传统的军事合作关系。
赫胥利
赫胥利说，“现在，新中关系对新加坡来说必不可少。与此同时，我认为新加坡不想完全依赖中国，不希望看到中国在经济或者安全领域主导这个地区。因为这个原因，继续帮助美国军队在东南亚地区活动对新加坡来说至关重要。”
其实，看看过去一段时间，美国海军在南海搞“航行自由”的次数，你就能明白在南海，美国多么不想被冷落。而在这方面，美国仍会极力地抹黑、指责中国。
美国军舰最近一次闯南海是5月19日，当时驱逐舰“普雷贝尔”号（DDG-88）闯入我黄岩岛12海里内，执行所谓“自由航行”任务。这是一个月来，美国第三次派遣“普雷贝尔”号赴南海水域执行挑衅任务：
5月6日，美国海军“普雷贝尔”号、“钟云”号驱逐舰曾擅自进入中国南海岛礁邻近海域。而4月28日，“普雷贝尔号”曾经闯入我赤瓜礁地区12海里内执行“挑衅”任务。这些闯入都遭到解放军警告驱离。
但是，一个明显趋势是，进入2019年，美国海军军舰闯入南海显然比以往频繁得多。而且，五角大楼发布的2019年度《中国军力报告》宣称，“虽然中国停止了在南中国海的填海造岛活动，但是它继续在南沙群岛上实施军事化，包括部署反舰、防空导弹系统”。
然而，这还不是最耸人听闻的。
美国前太平洋舰队情报部主任詹姆斯⋅法内尔不久前渲染称，中国正在建造和筹备建造的航空母舰多达6艘，2015年到2018年中国建造的舰艇数量多达85艘，远远超过同期美国的22艘。中国也正在建造数量更多、性能更强的核潜艇。
詹姆斯⋅法内尔
他预计，11年后，中国海军舰艇数量将多达560艘以上。
最离谱的是，他说“中国在南海修建了7个人工岛，其中3个人工岛屿面积和珍珠港一样大，可以容纳航空母舰打击群，还修建了长达三千米的飞机跑道。但我们很少看到媒体报道说，中国在南海建造了3个珍珠港。”
法内尔还斩钉截铁地说，中国海军将在未来10年内成为一支名副其实的全球性海军力量，并对美国造成威胁。
叁
在美国人眼里，“中国控制南海只是第一步，拿下台湾则是更大的目标”。
比如，法内尔渲染说，“如果你想一下中国的第一优先目标，就是拿下台湾，这是中国‘崛起’和‘中国梦’的象征。所以他们必须控制南海，阻挡美国海军，也阻吓美国在菲律宾发起军事行动的可能性。”
正是在这种借口之下，美国人除了向南海派出更多频次的舰艇外，如今在台湾海峡的穿行次数也越来越多。
今年5月22日，美国第七舰队“普雷贝尔”号驱逐舰，以及“迪尔”号补给舰（USNS Walter S。 Diehl）穿行台湾海峡。
这也是自2019年以来，美国第五次派遣军舰航经台湾海峡。 此前4次美国军舰通过台湾海峡分别是1月24日、2月24日、3月24日与4月28日，而每次美方都派遣至少两艘军舰出航。 美国自去年7月以来，便把派遣军舰航经台湾海峡作为惯例。
据美国太平洋舰队公布的数据显示，从2007年以来到今年4月，美国军舰穿越台湾海峡共92次，其中最多的2次是在2015年和2016年，分别为11次和12次。特朗普上台后的前2年，美国军舰穿越台湾海峡年均只有4次，直到今年开始增加为每月一次。
但是，虽然2018年美舰穿越台湾海峡只有3次，创2007年以来的新低，但从特朗普政府改变对台军售模式、支持台湾参与国际组织到签署“台湾旅行法”等种种措施来看，创下美国政府历年之最，而且更强调从法律角度来强化美台关系。
这是我们必须加以警惕的，也是今后我们在台海与美国人博弈可能上升的原因所在。
正因为如今“南海”和“台海”两大因素交织，中美防长同时参加香会，也成为外界关注的最大热点之一。
据香会主办机构称，中美两国防长在出席对话会期间计划举行双边非正式会谈。这将是魏凤和与沙纳汉两人作为两国防长的首次面对面会谈，也是2011年6月美国防长盖兹与中国防长梁光烈在香会举行会谈后，首次上演香会中美防长会。
沙纳汉在乘飞机飞往新加坡途中对随行的美国媒体说，他与中国防长魏凤和的会谈时间不会很长，将讨论两国可以合作之处。至于那些他认为美国需要明确和坦率地讨论的事情，双方可以今后再谈。
沙纳汉还说，他出席对话会主要是来听别人怎么说，并谋求增进盟友和伙伴关系。这么看来，美中两国高级官员互怼、在香格里拉对话会期间激战的可能性似乎不大。
当前，美国政府对中国进行极限施压，在贸易政策和政治外交上，中美正在激烈地“掰手腕”。美国人很清楚，越是在这个时候，越是要管控住军事冲突风险。与中国这样的大国陷入战争，这也绝对不是美国想要的。
美军参联会主席邓福德上将说，中美两国军方都在努力，使得两军关系成为两国关系的稳定力量。鉴于美中两国军事对抗的可能性正在增加，他希望能够建立两军直接对话机制，以化解随时可能发生的武力冲突。
为什么在“鸿门宴”开始之前，美国人的调门突然开始降下来了？
刀哥觉得，还是南海周边国家及东南亚国家不希望中美发生冲突，因为南海越稳定，地区发展环境就越好。亚太这片区域已经成为当今世界经济增长率最高的地方。而当两头大象格斗时，它们脚下的草会被踩烂。“这个地区没有其他国家愿意看到美国和中国对打”。
根据香会主办机构透露，中国防长魏凤和将在6月2日的会议上，就中国在印太地区的角色发表“令人期待的”讲话，并接受现场提问。一位正在新加坡香会现场的专家告诉刀哥，这背后体现出我们基于开放、积极融合国际社会的心态。
而且，按照香会的规则，只有防长级别的人才有更长时间的发言权，好像是1小时，而非防长级别的只有15分钟。现在我们的南海建设已经摆在那，我们与周边国家合作的态度也摆在那，我们有底气向各方阐明自己的观点和立场。
对于美国，中国还是那个态度：我们希望对话，但也不害怕对抗。如果美方愿意对话，中方会坐下来，既讲 ‘礼’也讲 ‘理’；如果美方选择对抗，中方会站直腰杆，既奉劝，更奉陪。
美国人应该明白一个道理，“鸿门宴”上的吵架、比音量谁更大，并不会改变对方的政策，也不会得到一个理想的结果。如果美国执意要在南海地区挑起对抗，那只会在这个地区越来越不受欢迎。
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The official media commented on the defense chief’s visit to the Xianghui: Did the US emperor bury a knife in the banquet?
The official media commented on the defense chief’s visit to the Xianghui: Did the US emperor bury a knife in the banquet?
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Original title: This year's new "Hongmen Banquet", did the US emperor bury the knife and axe?
Text / Hu Yidao
The "Shangri-La Conference" held in Singapore kicked off today. For China, it is a bit like the annual "banquet", because every time, the United States will gather a bunch of horses to attack China. But China has never been smashed, and it is all frankly going to the meeting.
This year, especially in the past, the US agent who was in charge of the defense, Shanahan, was the Shanahan who screamed three times "China, China, and China" when he took office. He is said to want to highlight the performance at the incense club and get rid of the title as soon as possible. The word "agent" on the word.
On the Chinese side, for the first time in eight years, a delegation headed by the Minister of Defense was sent. This specification made the organizers very excited. At this incense, in addition to the Chinese and American defense chiefs each arranged a speech at the conference, the Chinese and US defense chiefs will hold a meeting.
What kind of confrontation will the China-US Defense Minister have? Many people in the world hold their breath and wait.
壹
The meeting has not yet begun, and the analysis of the Shananhan will attack China in several directions.
Judging from the "small news" revealed by relevant media analysis and informed sources in the United States, Shanahan’s speech on the morning of June 1st "mainly highlights the continuous maritime activities and the enhancement of military presence in China in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean region. In the background, we must add some new strategies to the US-Indian strategy."
First, the Americans still want to promote the "Indo-Pacific strategy" through the Shangri-La Dialogue. Last year, Indian Prime Minister Modi’s speech at the Xianghui Conference poured a cold water on the “Indian Strategy”. And the relationship between India and China has continued to improve over the years. This makes the "Indian strategy" very embarrassing, but the Americans are obviously not willing to let it become a bad project.
In order to implement the "Indian Strategy", the US Pacific Command has been changed to "India-Pacific Command". If it really becomes a bad project, others will not say that Trump's face can't stand.
Second, the color of China's activities in the Indian Ocean region is very obvious. Americans not only listed China as a systemic risk in the “National Strategic Security” report, but also the “National Defense Strategy Report” issued by the Pentagon. The most important one is “the more Chinese ships and aircraft perform in the Indo-Pacific region. The more active you are."
Now the United States is facing the embarrassment of spreading the stalls too much, and listing China’s activities in the Indian Ocean as its own target, so it has to do its own heavy tasks. The Seventh Fleet, which is responsible for the Pacific patrol, has been seriously overloaded. Last year, there were several serious collision incidents, and the ship was destroyed.
Third, the military confrontation with China is very strong. In the past year, the United States has significantly increased the frequency of so-called "free navigation" in the South China Sea. On the other hand, the United States has continuously promoted China's "militaryization" in the South China Sea. However, it is not always the "militaryization" of the Americans to send the warships into the South China Sea and pull allies to conduct exercises in the South China Sea.
Therefore, in this way, Shanahan once shouted "China! China! China!", this "Hongmen Banquet" will certainly not lower the adjustment of China. Because the agent's defense chief still wants to "turn positive", and now the Trump administration's attitude toward China is still "extreme pressure", so the obedient agency defense chief will certainly cooperate.
For example, even if Trump tries to build a boundary wall and the parliament does not give money, what should I do? It is also a "emergency state" that allows Shanahan to take money from the defense funds to build a wall.
Of course, Americans may feel the change in attitudes of Southeast Asian countries toward China at this year's "banquet." As a host of the “Hongmen Banquet” geographical location, Singapore has had a bit of awkwardness with China for a while, and now it has “repented”.
In addition, public opinion is also concerned that Japan, Europe and other small brothers in the United States will not help in the incense.
Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe arrived in Singapore on May 29 and held a bilateral meeting with Singapore Defense Minister Huang Yonghong. After the meeting, Huang Yonghong issued a tweet saying that the two sides agreed to upgrade the defense exchanges and security cooperation agreements between the two countries to enhance the interaction and exchanges between the two militaries. Moreover, the two armies will hold joint maritime exercises in 2020.
Moreover, Wei Feng and the defense chief received high-standard treatment during their visit to Singapore, including meeting with Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and delivering a keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 2. This is the first time since 2011 that China sent a Minister of Defense to attend the Xianghui.
贰
Obviously, if the South China Sea returns to calm, the United States’ “needed feelings” will plummet, and it will also reduce its ability to advance the “Indo-Pacific strategy” and strengthen the regional military presence. This is of course the last thing the United States wants to see.
Therefore, Dr. Tim Huxley, the other organizer of the “Hongmen Banquet” and the executive director of the Asian Division of the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, hurriedly stated that Singapore’s pursuit of relations with China does not indicate a downgrade and American tradition. Military cooperation.
Hercules
Hexley said, "Now, the Sino-Singapore relationship is indispensable for Singapore. At the same time, I don't think Singapore wants to rely entirely on China. I don't want to see China dominate the region in the economic or security field. For this reason, continue. Helping the US military to operate in Southeast Asia is critical to Singapore."
In fact, look at the number of times the US Navy has engaged in "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea in the past, and you can understand how much the United States does not want to be left out in the South China Sea. In this regard, the United States will still try to discredit and accuse China.
The last time the US warship was in the South China Sea was May 19, when the destroyer "Prebel" (DDG-88) broke into the 12-mile mile of Huangyan Island to perform the so-called "free navigation" mission. This is the third time that the United States has sent the "Prebel" to the South China Sea for the third time:
On May 6, the US Navy's "Prebel" and "Zhong Yun" destroyers had arbitrarily entered the waters adjacent to the South Island Reef in China. On April 28th, the "Prebel" once broke into the 12-mile mile of the Chigua Reef area to perform the "provocation" mission. These intrusions were all warned by the People’s Liberation Army.
However, a clear trend is that in 2019, the US Navy warships broke into the South China Sea more obviously than ever. Moreover, the Pentagon’s 2019 China Military Report declared that “although China has stopped reclamation in the South China Sea, it continues to militarize the Nansha Islands, including the deployment of anti-ship and air defense missile systems.”
However, this is not the most sensational.
The former US Pacific Fleet Intelligence Director James Fahner recently said that China is building and preparing to build up to six aircraft carriers. From 2015 to 2018, China built more than 85 ships, far more than the United States. 22 ships. China is also building a larger number of more powerful nuclear submarines.
James Finner
He predicted that after 11 years, the number of Chinese naval vessels will be more than 560.
The most outrageous is that he said that "China has built seven labor islands in the South China Sea, three of which are as large as Pearl Harbor, can accommodate aircraft carrier strike groups, and have built a three-kilometer runway. But we It is rare to see media reports that China has built three Pearl Harbors in the South China Sea."
Farnell also categorically stated that the Chinese navy will become a veritable global naval force in the next 10 years and pose a threat to the United States.
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In the eyes of the Americans, "China's control of the South China Sea is only the first step, and winning Taiwan is a bigger goal."
For example, Farnell said, "If you think about China's first priority, it is to win Taiwan. This is a symbol of China's 'rise' and 'Chinese dream.' So they must control the South China Sea and block the US Navy. Deterring the possibility of US military operations in the Philippines."
It is under this pretext that the Americans, in addition to sending more frequent ships to the South China Sea, are now crossing the Taiwan Strait more and more.
On May 22 this year, the US Seventh Fleet "Prebel" destroyer and the "Dir" supply ship (USNS Walter S. Diehl) traveled through the Taiwan Strait.
This is also the fifth time since 2019 that the United States has dispatched warships to sail through the Taiwan Strait. The previous four US warships passed through the Taiwan Strait on January 24, February 24, March 24, and April 28, and each time the US sent at least two warships to sail. Since July last year, the United States has used the practice of sending warships through the Taiwan Strait.
According to data released by the US Pacific Fleet, from 2007 to April this year, US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait for a total of 92 times, the most two of which were in 2015 and 2016, 11 and 12 respectively. In the first two years after Trump took office, the US warships crossed the Taiwan Strait only four times a year, and this year it began to increase to once a month.
However, although the US ship crossed the Taiwan Strait only three times in 2018, a new low since 2007, but from the Trump administration to change the arms sales model to Taiwan, support Taiwan's participation in international organizations to sign the "Taiwan Travel Law" and other measures. See, set the highest in the US government over the years, and more emphasis on strengthening US-Taiwan relations from a legal perspective.
This is why we must be vigilant and the reason why our game with the Americans in the Taiwan Strait may rise in the future.
It is precisely because of the two factors of "South China Sea" and "Taihai" that the Chinese and American defense leaders have participated in the incense association at the same time, and it has become one of the biggest hot spots of the outside world.
According to the organizer of the Xianghui Association, the two defense chiefs of China and the United States plan to hold bilateral informal talks during the dialogue. This will be the first face-to-face meeting between Wei Fenghe and Shanahan as the two defense chiefs. It is also the first time in June 2011 that US Defense Minister Gaith and Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie held talks at the Xianghui meeting. .
On the way to Singapore, Shanahan told the accompanying American media that his talks with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe would not be long and would discuss where the two countries can cooperate. As for those things that he believes the United States needs to discuss clearly and frankly, the two sides can talk about it in the future.
Shanahan also said that his attendance at the dialogue was mainly to listen to what others said and to seek to improve allies and partnerships. From this point of view, it seems unlikely that senior officials from the United States and China will fight each other during the Shangri-La dialogue.
At present, the US government is exerting extreme pressure on China. In terms of trade policy and political diplomacy, China and the United States are fiercely "smashing their wrists." Americans know very well that the more they are at this time, the more they have to control the risk of military conflict. It is definitely not what the United States wants in a war with a big country like China.
Admiral Deng Fu, chairman of the US Military Association, said that the Chinese and US militaryes are working hard to make the relations between the two militaries a stable force in the relations between the two countries. In view of the increasing possibility of military confrontation between the United States and China, he hopes to establish a direct dialogue mechanism between the two armed forces to resolve possible military conflicts at any time.
Why did the Americans’ tune suddenly begin to fall before the “banquet” began?
Knife believes that the countries around the South China Sea and Southeast Asian countries do not want conflicts between China and the United States, because the more stable the South China Sea, the better the regional development environment. This region of Asia-Pacific has become the world's highest economic growth rate. When the two elephants fight, the grass under their feet will be trampled. "No other country in this region is willing to see the United States and China fight."
According to the organizer of the Xianghui Association, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe will deliver a "promising" speech on the role of China in the Indo-Pacific region at the June 2 meeting and accept questions from the scene. An expert at the scene of the Singapore Fragrance Club told Knife that this is reflected in our open mind and active integration of the international community.
Moreover, according to the rules of the Fragrant Association, only the long-term level of talent has a longer say, as if it is 1 hour, not 15 minutes. Now that our construction of the South China Sea is already there, our attitude of cooperation with neighboring countries is also there. We have the confidence to explain our views and positions to all parties.
For the United States, China is still that attitude: we want dialogue, but we are not afraid of confrontation. If the US is willing to talk, the Chinese will sit down and talk about ‘礼礼’ and ‘理’; if the US chooses to confront, the Chinese will stand up straight, and both advise and accompany.
Americans should understand the truth. The quarrel on the "banquet" is bigger than the volume, and it will not change the other's policies, nor will it get an ideal result. If the United States insists on provoking confrontation in the South China Sea, it will only become increasingly unpopular in this region.
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Daily Military TOP5 Focus on Shangri-La Dialogue
Keywords : Nanhai Hongmen Ban Shanahan
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