The majority of opposition parties are going to have a discussion this Monday to work out who will stand where, in the hopes of avoiding 3 corner fights. There’s gonna be just 29 contests in the forthcoming elections and the Worker’s Party has already declared it will stand in 10 of those (5 GRCs and 5 SMCs). That leaves just 19 contests for the remainder of the opposition to choose from. By the looks of things, it doesn’t seem sufficient given the number of parties that want to run.
Nothing to crow about, just 29 contests for 89 seats. The value of most people's votes are diluted by 1/4 to 1/6 as the case may be. The PAP can still win comfortably even if they lose more than half of the total number of contests. That's democracy Uniquely Singapore. (Click to enlarge)
I wrote an article just before the Punggol East by election on the reservation or booking of seats. You can read it here. I still stand by most of what I wrote then, however fast forward 2 years, there are certain things that I did not consider then, which are relevant for the upcoming elections.
Worker's Party chief Low Thia Khiang announced on Sunday last that the party intends to contest in 5 GRCs and 5 SMCs - a total of 28 candidates. As the primary opposition to the PAP, the WP while not attacking other opposition parties, doesn't need to join forces with them either.
Chief of which is the Worker’s Party’s stated position of wanting to tread their own path and to decide which seats they feel confident of winning. Now some, if not all the other opposition parties might think of it as selfish and not working towards opposition unity. However you gotta look at it in the WP’s perspective too. They and only they, have elected MPs. They have the best showing amongst all the opposition. They have brand recognition that most of the others don’t have, so why should they pass up what they see as seats that they can possibly win, just to allow some other party with candidates they feel are not strong enough to win against the PAP? If the shoe was on the other foot, do you think some of these smaller parties now would simply throw away a winnable seat just for the sake of opposition unity?
And don’t forget who matters the most in all of these, not any 1 party but the opposition voters themselves. Why should opposition voters be deprived the choice of choosing the 1 party that seems best placed to wrest a seat, just to allow a smaller party with little chance of winning to contest under the banner of opposition unity? These parties are being selfish or placing their own interests above those of the voters.
Lee Li Lian's stunning victory in Punggol East is a clear warning to other parties that they face oblivion and a hefty loss of not only their deposits but the trust and goodwill of opposition voters, by creating 3- or 4-corner contests.
Then again no one is saying that you can’t contest if you really want to. As I said and what was reflected in the PE by-election, opposition voters are not dumb and can see through the façade. They will simply vote for the party they wanted to and ignore the 3rd party, putting their deposits at peril. And that is the stark reminder to these parties as they try to barter and come to an agreement. You cannot blame bigger parties, those with better candidates or those with a track record in the previous election, if they are unwilling to budge.
You would have to consider your positions very carefully. I did 2 write ups on Goh Meng Seng and his newly formed PPP in May. The first lambasting him and the 2nd after he agreed to an interview and explained his position, a more conciliatory take. However I regret to note that rather than focusing on his own party and the goals he has in place, he continues to snipe at the WP. He’s still especially sore that they sent a ‘suicide squad’ to contest in Moulmein-Kallang. But he forgets that just because they didn’t win, was no proof that his then party would have either. After all if he himself failed to wrest Tampines, what makes him think they could have won elsewhere?
And still today he continues to chide and attack the WP, sometimes subtly and sneakily. He seems to have forgotten that his real ‘enemy’ is not the WP but the PAP. He is not gonna win votes by attacking the WP. Even Ben Pwee of the DPP has announced he wants to contest in Potong Pasir, long an SPP stronghold and under whose banner he ran in 2011. He says he will field a stronger candidate than Lina Chiam. That’s besides the point, the point is whether that candidate can do better than her and win the voters over? The Chiams are a brand name in Potong Pasir and Mrs Chiam has done a reasonable job and voiced issues as an NCMP. She has a record of her own and her party has 1 too, what does Ben Pwee have in contrast to this? Maybe if he got George Yeo, then I’ll concede the point.
That’s a problem unfortunately with a number of opposition figures, notably the veterans and party leaders. They all think they are ‘the best thing since sliced bread,’ or ‘Superman himself!’ They are so engrossed by their own egos and this is further exacerbated when a small number of die hard opposition fans or their own close friends and supporters, give them a round of ringing approval. They then think that the whole country thinks the same too. And then when they lose, blame everyone but themselves.
So I hope some of them will really have a proper think on this over the weekend. Elections are usually not about choosing the most qualified, rather the most suitable. On paper Lee Hsien Loong is certainly the most qualified - groomed by LKY, Cambridge trained, a brilliant scholar with military background. But is he the most suitable? Just look at what’s happened in these past 10 years under his watch. The same with some opposition figures, you may be qualified but are you the most suitable in this election? It’s no point contesting all over the place only to fail in every one. Try to win 1 seat if you’re a smaller party, prove yourself in Parliament and then come back the next time with more candidates and go for more.
Last chance for Dr Chee in all probability. If he cannot win a seat (or at the very least come within a whisker of winning), he has to seriously consider whether he's best placed to continue leading the SDP. The SDP was once seen as the main opposition, they now are trying to hold on as the 3rd force. But I do feel that either Drs Chee or Thambyah or both, should be elected and be the voices for the lower classes in society. It's just as important to raise social issues as economic ones.
Smaller parties in deciding to run in places where the Big 3 plus 1 (WP, SDP, NSP with SPP in PP and MB) will contest, must really consider the implications carefully. Do you honestly believe you can outperform these parties in those seats? Worse if because of you, the PAP retains the seat with under 50% of the votes cast. The opposition voters are unlikely to forget or forgive your party in future. Just because there’s an election doesn’t mean that you must contest. If there’s no good place to contest and no area where you can outperform the current bigger parties, let it be, you can always contest in the future. Still I think there might just be that 1 or 2 places for you provided you’re not stubborn. Or perhaps you can join forces with another smaller party like the SDA and contest under a 2 or 3 party coalition, each of you fielding your best men.
But sometimes it’s just your fate that it’s not gonna be you. But you owe it to your party to make sure you choose and hand over to a successor that can grow the party. Finally don’t forget who is the common enemy - not each other for sure, and remember it’s your duty as an opposition party to place the voters interest above your own self interests. This is not something impossible to determine, in any ward you intend to stand, you can find a good number of opposition voters there. Ask around, ask them, that if between you and another opposition party, who would that voter choose. Remember that you’re in it to win it. Even in a 1 v 1 there’s no point getting 35-40% of the vote, if you cannot win but somebody else can. In politics if you fight and run away, you always live to fight another day. Or as Richard Nixon put it – in the Olympics if you finish 2nd you get a silver, in politics if you finish 2nd, it’s oblivion. In the Singapore context, 2nd place might not be so bad, but if you finish 3rd in a 3 way contest, you’re truly finished.
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01/3-corner-fights-new-smaller-parties-must-act-wisely/
Nothing to crow about, just 29 contests for 89 seats. The value of most people's votes are diluted by 1/4 to 1/6 as the case may be. The PAP can still win comfortably even if they lose more than half of the total number of contests. That's democracy Uniquely Singapore. (Click to enlarge)
I wrote an article just before the Punggol East by election on the reservation or booking of seats. You can read it here. I still stand by most of what I wrote then, however fast forward 2 years, there are certain things that I did not consider then, which are relevant for the upcoming elections.
Worker's Party chief Low Thia Khiang announced on Sunday last that the party intends to contest in 5 GRCs and 5 SMCs - a total of 28 candidates. As the primary opposition to the PAP, the WP while not attacking other opposition parties, doesn't need to join forces with them either.
Chief of which is the Worker’s Party’s stated position of wanting to tread their own path and to decide which seats they feel confident of winning. Now some, if not all the other opposition parties might think of it as selfish and not working towards opposition unity. However you gotta look at it in the WP’s perspective too. They and only they, have elected MPs. They have the best showing amongst all the opposition. They have brand recognition that most of the others don’t have, so why should they pass up what they see as seats that they can possibly win, just to allow some other party with candidates they feel are not strong enough to win against the PAP? If the shoe was on the other foot, do you think some of these smaller parties now would simply throw away a winnable seat just for the sake of opposition unity?
And don’t forget who matters the most in all of these, not any 1 party but the opposition voters themselves. Why should opposition voters be deprived the choice of choosing the 1 party that seems best placed to wrest a seat, just to allow a smaller party with little chance of winning to contest under the banner of opposition unity? These parties are being selfish or placing their own interests above those of the voters.
Lee Li Lian's stunning victory in Punggol East is a clear warning to other parties that they face oblivion and a hefty loss of not only their deposits but the trust and goodwill of opposition voters, by creating 3- or 4-corner contests.
Then again no one is saying that you can’t contest if you really want to. As I said and what was reflected in the PE by-election, opposition voters are not dumb and can see through the façade. They will simply vote for the party they wanted to and ignore the 3rd party, putting their deposits at peril. And that is the stark reminder to these parties as they try to barter and come to an agreement. You cannot blame bigger parties, those with better candidates or those with a track record in the previous election, if they are unwilling to budge.
You would have to consider your positions very carefully. I did 2 write ups on Goh Meng Seng and his newly formed PPP in May. The first lambasting him and the 2nd after he agreed to an interview and explained his position, a more conciliatory take. However I regret to note that rather than focusing on his own party and the goals he has in place, he continues to snipe at the WP. He’s still especially sore that they sent a ‘suicide squad’ to contest in Moulmein-Kallang. But he forgets that just because they didn’t win, was no proof that his then party would have either. After all if he himself failed to wrest Tampines, what makes him think they could have won elsewhere?
And still today he continues to chide and attack the WP, sometimes subtly and sneakily. He seems to have forgotten that his real ‘enemy’ is not the WP but the PAP. He is not gonna win votes by attacking the WP. Even Ben Pwee of the DPP has announced he wants to contest in Potong Pasir, long an SPP stronghold and under whose banner he ran in 2011. He says he will field a stronger candidate than Lina Chiam. That’s besides the point, the point is whether that candidate can do better than her and win the voters over? The Chiams are a brand name in Potong Pasir and Mrs Chiam has done a reasonable job and voiced issues as an NCMP. She has a record of her own and her party has 1 too, what does Ben Pwee have in contrast to this? Maybe if he got George Yeo, then I’ll concede the point.
That’s a problem unfortunately with a number of opposition figures, notably the veterans and party leaders. They all think they are ‘the best thing since sliced bread,’ or ‘Superman himself!’ They are so engrossed by their own egos and this is further exacerbated when a small number of die hard opposition fans or their own close friends and supporters, give them a round of ringing approval. They then think that the whole country thinks the same too. And then when they lose, blame everyone but themselves.
So I hope some of them will really have a proper think on this over the weekend. Elections are usually not about choosing the most qualified, rather the most suitable. On paper Lee Hsien Loong is certainly the most qualified - groomed by LKY, Cambridge trained, a brilliant scholar with military background. But is he the most suitable? Just look at what’s happened in these past 10 years under his watch. The same with some opposition figures, you may be qualified but are you the most suitable in this election? It’s no point contesting all over the place only to fail in every one. Try to win 1 seat if you’re a smaller party, prove yourself in Parliament and then come back the next time with more candidates and go for more.
Last chance for Dr Chee in all probability. If he cannot win a seat (or at the very least come within a whisker of winning), he has to seriously consider whether he's best placed to continue leading the SDP. The SDP was once seen as the main opposition, they now are trying to hold on as the 3rd force. But I do feel that either Drs Chee or Thambyah or both, should be elected and be the voices for the lower classes in society. It's just as important to raise social issues as economic ones.
Smaller parties in deciding to run in places where the Big 3 plus 1 (WP, SDP, NSP with SPP in PP and MB) will contest, must really consider the implications carefully. Do you honestly believe you can outperform these parties in those seats? Worse if because of you, the PAP retains the seat with under 50% of the votes cast. The opposition voters are unlikely to forget or forgive your party in future. Just because there’s an election doesn’t mean that you must contest. If there’s no good place to contest and no area where you can outperform the current bigger parties, let it be, you can always contest in the future. Still I think there might just be that 1 or 2 places for you provided you’re not stubborn. Or perhaps you can join forces with another smaller party like the SDA and contest under a 2 or 3 party coalition, each of you fielding your best men.
But sometimes it’s just your fate that it’s not gonna be you. But you owe it to your party to make sure you choose and hand over to a successor that can grow the party. Finally don’t forget who is the common enemy - not each other for sure, and remember it’s your duty as an opposition party to place the voters interest above your own self interests. This is not something impossible to determine, in any ward you intend to stand, you can find a good number of opposition voters there. Ask around, ask them, that if between you and another opposition party, who would that voter choose. Remember that you’re in it to win it. Even in a 1 v 1 there’s no point getting 35-40% of the vote, if you cannot win but somebody else can. In politics if you fight and run away, you always live to fight another day. Or as Richard Nixon put it – in the Olympics if you finish 2nd you get a silver, in politics if you finish 2nd, it’s oblivion. In the Singapore context, 2nd place might not be so bad, but if you finish 3rd in a 3 way contest, you’re truly finished.
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01/3-corner-fights-new-smaller-parties-must-act-wisely/
