[h=1]Watch out, coders -- a robot may take your job, too[/h]Researchers warn that a glut of code is coming that will depress wages and turn coders into Uber drivers
Chances are you're not too worried about a robot taking your job. After all, when we picture out-of-control automation,
we imagine that the blue-collar folks who work with their hands in the factories or checkout counters will be pushed
aside by a collection of chips, software, and servo-motors.
But don't be smug, techies. An intriguing new research paper from two major universities posits that even software developers,
the very people who program those machines, could face a future in which their skills are no longer needed and their incomes
drop precipitously as smart machines reduce the need for human-produced software to mere maintenance operations.
If that happens, wages will drop, demand will decline, investors will make smaller returns, and the capital needed for
future tech booms won't accumulate. "In other words, technological progress can be immiserating," say the authors of
"Robots are us: Some economics of human replacement."
The researchers -- Boston University's Seth Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff, and Guillermo LaGarda, and Columbia University's
Jeffrey Sachs -- aren't predicting some silly, Terminator-like robot apocalypse.
What they are saying is that our economy is entering a new type of boom-and-bust cycle that accelerates the production of
new products and new code so rapidly that supply outstrips demand. The solution to that shortage will be to figure out how
not to need those hard-to-find human experts. In fact, it's already happening in some areas.
[h=3]After the developer boom comes the developer bust[/h]In the past, technological changes have generally spared the most highly skilled members of the workforce. But as we slide
down the backside of the cycle, the pain will be shared quite broadly. "The long run in such a case is no techno-utopia,"
the authors say. In that future, "code is abundant. But capital is dear. And yes, everyone is fully employed.
But no one is earning very much."
In the beginning of the cycle, demand for people who can write code soars, so wages go up, say the researchers.
That's exactly the situation we're in now, when demand for software developers is at an all-time high. In the last three months,
for example, employers have posted more than 100,000 openings for software engineers and developers on the Glassdoor site,
though not all the postings are still current.
