<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published January 26, 2009
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Barclays continues to fall as investors remain sceptical
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>(LONDON) Barclays is trading at a price that indicates investors are ignoring management's reassurances and giving the bank a 70 per cent chance of nationalisation, according to analysts at Sanford C Bernstein & Co.
Barclays dropped almost 14 per cent to 51.2 pence, its ninth straight day of declines, on Friday. The stock is down 72 per cent since Jan 12, valuing the bank at £4.3 billion (S$8.8 billion).
'The stocks have massive upside if, and notice if, they avoid the perils of full nationalisation,' Bruno Paulson, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein in London, wrote. He has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.
Barclays chief executive John Varley has tried to calm investor concerns, saying in a broadcast on Thursday that the company can tap the UK's plan to help shoulder losses on toxic assets without selling new stock. He also reiterated on Friday that the Jan 16 statement that Barclays will report 'solid profit' in 2008 even after writedowns.
Still, Barclays may have to give three investors in the Middle East more than 50 per cent ownership under terms of the contracts designed to prevent dilution of their shares, according to Simon Willis at NCB Stockbrokers in London.
'It's highly unlikely that the UK government will grant Barclays access to the scheme unless it takes further writedowns,' wrote Mr Willis. 'This in turn means it's highly likely that Barclays will require further capital.'
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group will cede a 70 per cent stake to the government after saying last week that writedowns of as much as £20 billion will mean the biggest loss in UK history. Lloyds Bank Group, 43 per cent owned by the UK, rejected the government's offer to increase its stake.
Barclays' market value dropped below that of Absa Group, the lender it has controlled since 2005. Johannesburg-based Absa was valued at US$6.1 billion on Friday.
Mr Varley, appearing in a broadcast on the website of Cantos Communications, said the bank would prefer to pay cash to use the UK's plan announced last week to guarantee toxic assets. Barclays' capital buffer is 'well ahead' of regulatory requirements, he added.
The company's Jan 16 statement 'clearly had little credibility with the market, as it's widely recognised that Barclays has provisioned lightly for its leveraged debt and toxic assets' relative to its peers, said NCB's Mr Willis. -- Bloomberg
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Barclays continues to fall as investors remain sceptical
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20> </TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>(LONDON) Barclays is trading at a price that indicates investors are ignoring management's reassurances and giving the bank a 70 per cent chance of nationalisation, according to analysts at Sanford C Bernstein & Co.
Barclays dropped almost 14 per cent to 51.2 pence, its ninth straight day of declines, on Friday. The stock is down 72 per cent since Jan 12, valuing the bank at £4.3 billion (S$8.8 billion).
'The stocks have massive upside if, and notice if, they avoid the perils of full nationalisation,' Bruno Paulson, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein in London, wrote. He has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.
Barclays chief executive John Varley has tried to calm investor concerns, saying in a broadcast on Thursday that the company can tap the UK's plan to help shoulder losses on toxic assets without selling new stock. He also reiterated on Friday that the Jan 16 statement that Barclays will report 'solid profit' in 2008 even after writedowns.
Still, Barclays may have to give three investors in the Middle East more than 50 per cent ownership under terms of the contracts designed to prevent dilution of their shares, according to Simon Willis at NCB Stockbrokers in London.
'It's highly unlikely that the UK government will grant Barclays access to the scheme unless it takes further writedowns,' wrote Mr Willis. 'This in turn means it's highly likely that Barclays will require further capital.'
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Barclays' market value dropped below that of Absa Group, the lender it has controlled since 2005. Johannesburg-based Absa was valued at US$6.1 billion on Friday.
Mr Varley, appearing in a broadcast on the website of Cantos Communications, said the bank would prefer to pay cash to use the UK's plan announced last week to guarantee toxic assets. Barclays' capital buffer is 'well ahead' of regulatory requirements, he added.
The company's Jan 16 statement 'clearly had little credibility with the market, as it's widely recognised that Barclays has provisioned lightly for its leveraged debt and toxic assets' relative to its peers, said NCB's Mr Willis. -- Bloomberg
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