OIL markets: Can collapse anytime

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Those betting on oil price rise. Got to take note of this.

There is hardly any demand increase in crude oil demand.
The market is sluggish under best conditions.

The recent price increase are due to:

1. OPEC regularly cutting production output to sustain prices.

2. Prices following the rise in prices of broadbased wall street stocks.
Hence cannot be sustained.

But the inventories are building up and a severe correction
may come soon in the price of oil which is now at 60 USD a barrel.


What about the outlook for oil.?
The longterm outlook for oil is bleak, because

1. Alternate energy sources are fast emerging into commercial marketing stages.
2. Environmental consciousness is now fast gathering momentum across the developing world.
3. Energy conservation and better fuel efficiency regime has kicked into
the global economies.

---
The Idiot Economic/Financial analysts:
The whole bunch of these idiots think, behave and talk with a pack mentality. If the oil price shows an increase, they immediate "analyse" it
as "global economic activity picking up."

These media based textbook oriented economic and financial analysts and commentators are a real bunch of Idiots. Virtually without any brains.

 

[Cestbon]

With so many oil rig contract back out. There mean no future no one want to invest.
And in 5 years time all new vehicle fuel efficiency will be nearly double from today spec. Many hydropower dam are up, many nuclear generator are in constuction and many more in planing. Wind power are getting more populor and solar are coming.
So what does it mean?????

 

[longbow]

I do not expect a price collapse. World demand will increase as the Chinese ramp up their economy because of their economic stimulus plan. India too is trying to increase car ownership although it will seriously challenge their crumbling infrastructure.

The Chinese are taking lull in commodity prices to buy up oil (purchase of SPC), iron, copper, etc reserves.

Also US economy is beginning to show signs of life.

The way i look at it, prices will be high, per capita use will drop due to efficient usage but that is offset by many more users of the resource.

Read that Shell, an oil major, has given up on wind and solar. They must know something that we do not!


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

The biggest consumers of OIL are the developed nations like USA, UK, Germany and France etc. Together they consume more oil than India and China put together. When they reduce their oil consumption, due to reasons mentioned in my first posting, it can affect the supply and demand equation. Supply being far in excess of demand.

But that is not the point I am making. The energy technology is fast developing alternate fuel sources like Hydrogen, wind, Solar, Biofuels from algae..these technologies ..when there is a imminent breakthrough , which is expected anytime, will drastically reduce oil consumptions worldwide. And therefore the long term outlook for oil is bleak.

A reasoning that is totally absent in the PACK mentality financial and economic experts who regularly mouth about oil orices like parrots, and misled the investing public.

 

[Eurekas]

In the near future there will be greater use of hydrogen, solar energy, wind energy and hydroelectric power, but there is also many consumer products like detergents, fertilisers, plastics, drugs etc that need oil to produce. Expect oil usage to drop radually not not drastically.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

In the near future there will be greater use of hydrogen, solar energy, wind energy and hydroelectric power, but there is also many consumer products like detergents, fertilisers, plastics, drugs etc that need oil to produce. Expect oil usage to drop radually not not drastically.

These are downstream products and their proportional use in comparison to
oil used as energy is relatively small.

Oil energy ( transportation , power generation) is the biggest consumption
factor and any drop ( say 10%) is enough to trigger a dramatic fall
and before long a price war eruption among oil producing nations.

 

[radon39]

These are downstream products and their proportional use in comparison to
oil used as energy is relatively small.

Oil energy ( transportation , power generation) is the biggest consumption
factor and any drop ( say 10%) is enough to trigger a dramatic fall
and before long a price war eruption among oil producing nations.

Which is why Osama's GREEN initiatives is gonna get him assassinated one day by those oil moguls

 

[tonychat]

With so many oil rig contract back out. There mean no future no one want to invest.
And in 5 years time all new vehicle fuel efficiency will be nearly double from today spec. Many hydropower dam are up, many nuclear generator are in constuction and many more in planing. Wind power are getting more populor and solar are coming.
So what does it mean?????

IT means when the oil cartel is greedy, they get screwed. Simple as that.

 

[SIFU]

IT means when the oil cartel is greedy, they get screwed. Simple as that.

fuck you lah CB Kia tonychat..

go vegetarian, save the earth, all fucking bullshit..

why dun u ask your clients to use cabbage to wrap around their cocks when screwing your prostitute ladyboy gf's arsehole:oIo::oIo::oIo:

 

[longbow]

Just to get some hard facts:

Oil consumption figures per day

USA 20 million barrels
France 1.9 million
UK 1.8 million
Italy 1.7 million
Germany 2.6 million
Japan 5.3 million

India 2.4million
China 6.9million
Indonesia 1.1 million
Brazil 2.1 million


China alone consumes more than UK, France and Italy combined. But remember that Chinese economy is expanding at 6 to 8 percent per year.

China is number 2 in global sales 2007 figures - 8.7 million cars. I think give it 10 years and they will easily over take US vehicle sales. How about airlines. China will have a domestic aviation industry quite similar to that of the US. That is why Chinese oil consumption will skyrocket.

India sold 1.9 million cars.


http://www.autoindia.com/News/auto-news-india928.html

As far as alternative energy, well that will reduce some oil use but I doubt it can compensate for the increase consumption from the 3rd world economies. The 3rd world economies are moving from motorcycles into cars.

The biggest consumers of OIL are the developed nations like USA, UK, Germany and France etc. Together they consume more oil than India and China put together. When they reduce their oil consumption, due to reasons mentioned in my first posting, it can affect the supply and demand equation. Supply being far in excess of demand.

But that is not the point I am making. The energy technology is fast developing alternate fuel sources like Hydrogen, wind, Solar, Biofuels from algae..these technologies ..when there is a imminent breakthrough , which is expected anytime, will drastically reduce oil consumptions worldwide. And therefore the long term outlook for oil is bleak.

A reasoning that is totally absent in the PACK mentality financial and economic experts who regularly mouth about oil orices like parrots, and misled the investing public.

 

[tonychat]

China is number 2 in global sales 2007 figures - 8.7 million cars. I think give it 10 years and they will easily over take US vehicle sales. How about airlines. China will have a domestic aviation industry quite similar to that of the US. That is why Chinese oil consumption will skyrocket.

China might use energy efficient cars in a few years time. Things will change. Dun take the figure as it would happen in the future.

 

[johnny333]

But that is not the point I am making. The energy technology is fast developing alternate fuel sources like Hydrogen, wind, Solar, Biofuels from algae..these technologies ..when there is a imminent breakthrough , which is expected anytime, will drastically reduce oil consumptions worldwide. And therefore the long term outlook for oil is bleak.

There are no breakthroughs that threaten to replace oil. Even if they were to discover one today, it would take years before it can make it to the market place.

The current alternative technoloogies like wind & solar are expensive alternatives. They become cheaper alternatives only if the price of oil is high.

 

[newyorker88]

Just to get some hard facts:

Oil consumption figures per day



China alone consumes more than UK, France and Italy combined. But remember that Chinese economy is expanding at 6 to 8 percent per year.

The 3rd world economies are moving from motorcycles into cars.

If one day, China uses as much oil as USA, that will bring about destruction of the world.

 

[SIFU]

China might use energy efficient cars in a few years time. Things will change. Dun take the figure as it would happen in the future.

fuck u lah.. then might as well say china may be using more fuel-thirsty cars in a few years time.:oIo::oIo:

thats why must analyse base on current stats lah idiot..:oIo::oIo:

fucking moron pimp like u better stick to 'how to combat recession for my thai ladyboys' topic.:oIo::oIo:

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Just to get some hard facts:

Oil consumption figures per day

USA 20 million barrels
France 1.9 million
UK 1.8 million
Italy 1.7 million
Germany 2.6 million
Japan 5.3 million

India 2.4million
China 6.9million
Indonesia 1.1 million
Brazil 2.1 million


China alone consumes more than UK, France and Italy combined. But remember that Chinese economy is expanding at 6 to 8 percent per year.

China is number 2 in global sales 2007 figures - 8.7 million cars. I think give it 10 years and they will easily over take US vehicle sales. How about airlines. China will have a domestic aviation industry quite similar to that of the US. That is why Chinese oil consumption will skyrocket.

India sold 1.9 million cars.


http://www.autoindia.com/News/auto-news-india928.html

As far as alternative energy, well that will reduce some oil use but I doubt it can compensate for the increase consumption from the 3rd world economies. The 3rd world economies are moving from motorcycles into cars.

Your figures are about right.
But oil production as of today is approx 86 million barrels / day, OPEC and NON-OPEC together. HEnce supply is abundant. Its the demand side that is in question now. OPEC already slashed production by 5 million barrels / day resulting in a small rise in price of crude.

Regarding developing countries taking up the excess slack - well..lets take India and China.

Both these nations, had good growth figures till last year. China economy ws export driven by USA markets mostly. With the present financial conditions in USA, this export market for China have fallen drastically. As indicated by the huge number of factories closing down there due to lack of export orders.

Hence growth of China and India are tied to market demand from Western nations mostly. Therefore, China and India will not have the type of growth rates as they once had and hence they will consume less oil than they used to.

In China's case, most of the consumption of OIL was for driving an economy that was Export focused. When exports fall, the demand for oil will fall accordingly.

 

[Watchman]

China will collaspe soon !

 

[mercbenz]

Bring in pig farms again and harvest the methane emissions. Beyond Thunderdome anyone?

Pig Farts FTW.

 

[longbow]

But you miss a critical point. Unlike Japan or S Korea or Germany (world largest exporter), China has a huge internal consumption. China is not merely an exporting country. It is also a huge consumer. It is because of Chinese and Indian consumption that has driven commodities through the roof.

There is no doubt that the economic impact will be felt. But despite the worst of times we are seeing $60 oil. If you took away Chinese and Indian consumption you probably have $20 oil. China and india pretty much cream off all excess capacity. The Chinese just pumped in close to US$700B into their stimulus plan. $700B can buy a lot more in China than in the US. A lot of this money is going into the infrastructure.

The Chinese are so concerned about oil supplies that they have been buying and signing whatever oil contracts they can have their hands off.

In the short term oil prices may collapse. But if you use to 5 to 10 year horizon, I think the Chinese will consume the most oil in the world.

Also do not forget the triilions US has pumped into their economy. Bureaucracy has slowed the disbursement of these funds but the triilions are there and it is enough to kick start the economy. You just need to move the US economy by 1 percent; from negative 2% growth to negative 1 % and the energy consumtion figures will show.

Your figures are about right.
But oil production as of today is approx 86 million barrels / day, OPEC and NON-OPEC together. HEnce supply is abundant. Its the demand side that is in question now. OPEC already slashed production by 5 million barrels / day resulting in a small rise in price of crude.

Regarding developing countries taking up the excess slack - well..lets take India and China.

Both these nations, had good growth figures till last year. China economy ws export driven by USA markets mostly. With the present financial conditions in USA, this export market for China have fallen drastically. As indicated by the huge number of factories closing down there due to lack of export orders.

Hence growth of China and India are tied to market demand from Western nations mostly. Therefore, China and India will not have the type of growth rates as they once had and hence they will consume less oil than they used to.

In China's case, most of the consumption of OIL was for driving an economy that was Export focused. When exports fall, the demand for oil will fall accordingly.

 

[sta1100]

They are trying to earn a fast $$$, wait until alternate energy, oil company will be screw BIG time

 

[boundThunter]

China will collaspe soon !

What made you said so ??

Anything to back that up ??