Obama told by Iran to fly kite

[PEE_APE_PEE]

Iran rejects Obama's 'carrot-and-stick' proposal

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran on Monday rejected a proposal by President-elect Barack Obama that a combination of economic incentives and tighter sanctions might persuade the Iranian government to change its behavior.

Obama said in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" that aired Sunday that the international community could develop a set of incentives that would persuade Iran to alter its nuclear program. The U.S. and many of its allies suspect that Iran wants to develop weapons through its nuclear program, but Tehran says it is focused on power generation.

"You know, in terms of carrots, I think that we can provide economic incentives that would be helpful to a country that, despite being a net oil producer, is under enormous strain, huge inflation, a lot of unemployment problems there," said Obama.

But Iran has rejected past offers of economic incentives by the international community in exchange for scaling back its nuclear activities, a sentiment echoed Monday by Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hasan Qashqavi.

"The carrot-and-stick policy has no benefit," Qashqavi told reporters during his weekly press briefing. "It is unacceptable and failed."

Qashqavi reiterated Iran's refusal to suspend enrichment Monday and said the U.S. must recognize Iran's "nuclear right" before the country would dispel concerns about its program.

Obama also said that the U.S. should ratchet up direct diplomacy as a way to induce Iran to alter course on its nuclear program and cease support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

The Iranian government has expressed interest in more direct talks with the U.S. but has consistently refused to alter its nuclear program as a precondition.

 

[The_Latest_H]

With a weak economy, and falling oil prices, even if Iran initially refuses, they won't refuse for long. Already, people are earning less, are losing their jobs faster, and even more are asking for some welfare social benefits from the government.

The Iranian government cannot afford it- and that's why even if they refuse now, a few months down the line, they might be tempted by prospects of a reduction in trade sanctions by the US, and by joining WTO and enjoying free trade. All these initiatives are money, almost gold, and if Iran becomes desperate by that time, who knows that the Iranian Supreme leader might be tempted to kick the current President away for a moderate conservative instead by spring 2009.

 

[PEE_APE_PEE]

With a weak economy, and falling oil prices, even if Iran initially refuses, they won't refuse for long. Already, people are earning less, are losing their jobs faster, and even more are asking for some welfare social benefits from the government.

The Iranian government cannot afford it- and that's why even if they refuse now, a few months down the line, they might be tempted by prospects of a reduction in trade sanctions by the US, and by joining WTO and enjoying free trade. All these initiatives are money, almost gold, and if Iran becomes desperate by that time, who knows that the Iranian Supreme leader might be tempted to kick the current President away for a moderate conservative instead by spring 2009.

Iran was originally involved in war in Iraq with Bush, causing GIs to be blown to death by roadside bombings. The economic weakness is actually with USA aka Obama not Iran. PRC & others are still buying oil & gas at very lucrative prices from Iran and Iran is supplied by Russian & PRC arms & technologies including missiles jets radar comms and nuke related. Obama can not afford another war with neither North Korea nor Iran this is well known even by stupid Bush.

Economic sanction against any country by USA is ineffective from Bush onwards. The strategic situation will soon be USA becoming vulnerable toward economic sanction imposed by other powers - the Arabs & PRC will soon be able to clamp Obama's balls with Credit Sanction or Loan Sanction or other effective economic pressure, Obama is in much worst position than Bush to face economic and financial disadvantages. New powers like Arab India & China etc are not even giving face to G8 not to say USA.

It will be a Newer World Order to be declared to Obama, USA under his rule is no longer superpower.

 

[The_Latest_H]

Iran was originally involved in war in Iraq with Bush, causing GIs to be blown to death by roadside bombings. The economic weakness is actually with USA aka Obama not Iran. PRC & others are still buying oil & gas at very lucrative prices from Iran and Iran is supplied by Russian & PRC arms & technologies including missiles jets radar comms and nuke related. Obama can not afford another war with neither North Korea nor Iran this is well known even by stupid Bush.

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To be sure, the US isn't the supreme power it once was. But Iranian oil sold now has less revenue per barrel because of the fall in prices. So even if oil is sold to China and Russia, they won't earn as much as they did earlier this year.

And as for Arab powers trading with Iran, well, Iran is shiite, while the rest of the Arab nations are Sunni. And they don't like Iran all that much.

And as for economical sanctions, there are two things to note: In the past, even with sanctions, because of the higher oil prices, sanctions were ineffective- because they could sell oil to China, and to other African countries. Now its not the case. With US$40 per barrel, they are making US$100 less per barrel than during the spring, and as such revenue from China is low, and thus sanctions now have a bad effect on Iranian trade.

Second, now the new sanctions imposed is targeted on the prominent members of the fundamentalist side that is ideologically inclined with the current President. Individuals are now the targets of such focused sanctions, ensuring that its these people who are now held responsible. Therefore its their own bank accounts outside of Iran which is frozen; its now their own luxuries- such as iPods, PCs, food et al- that are being clamped down because of the sanctions. In addition Iranian companies that are suspected to be involved in nuclear trade are also being sanctioned, reducing further revenue for these companies.

All in all, all these drastically affects the Iranian leadership and the economy. If oil prices hold up- and it seems likely- the worsening economy will probably force Iran to look back and re-consider. Even an authoritarian regime cannot ignore the ordinary Iranian people. They must at least, prove that they can deliver for the people- in order to allow ordinary Iranians to put food on the table.

Most importantly, most ordinary Iranians wants their government to resume direct talks with Washington, especially now that Obama has won.