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Now Jim Rogers Is Warning About The Chinese Property Bubble

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Uh-Oh: Now Jim Rogers Is Warning About The Chinese Property Bubble

John Carney | Jan. 19, 2010, 10:28 AM |

Jim Rogers is now saying that property prices in Shanghai and Hong Kong may be an inflating bubble set for a painful pop.

Recently, Rogers’s bullish views on China have been contrasted in numerous media stories to the bearish views of Kynikos hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who has been publicly warning of a China bubble.

In a Bloomberg story out this morning, Rogers seems to be changing or clarifying his views. Now he’s warning that property prices are being driven higher by speculative demand. When it comes to property values there doesn’t actually seem to be much distance between Chanos and Rogers.

“Certainly, Shanghai real estate or Hong Kong real estate should decline,” Rogers said in an interview in Bloomberg’s Singapore bureau. “My goodness, if anything’s in a bubble in the world, that and U.S. government bonds are certainly very overpriced.”

“China now realizes that they’ve created too much money, that prices are going up too much and they’re trying to slow things down,” Rogers said in the interview. “These things are designed to take some of the heat out of the economy. Let’s hope it works.”
 
No doubt there is a bubble forming in Shanghai and HK. HK by the way has gone through numerous boom bust with property price breaching new highs each time. For the Chinese it was either recession and the ensuing chaos or to stimulate economy. Stimulus is a blunt edge axe.

But the fundamentals in China remain good and Beijing seems to be in touch with the situation with their recent bank curbs. A good thing is that Beijing has a large war chest to ride out any bubble as opposed to US who is running huge deficits.
 
No doubt there is a bubble forming in Shanghai and HK. HK by the way has gone through numerous boom bust with property price breaching new highs each time. For the Chinese it was either recession and the ensuing chaos or to stimulate economy. Stimulus is a blunt edge axe.

But the fundamentals in China remain good and Beijing seems to be in touch with the situation with their recent bank curbs. A good thing is that Beijing has a large war chest to ride out any bubble as opposed to US who is running huge deficits.

What are the 'fundamentals' that remain good ?
 
17 Jan 2010

Marc Faber, a leading economist and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report has said that China's economy is growing at 2% and not 7.8% as its government claims. He speaks on CNBC frequently.

Is China making the transition? Are they actually growing 8%? Marc Faber doubts it.

China’s economy is growing at 2 percent, not the 7.8 percent its government claims, says economist Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report.

“The Chinese government is one of the few governments in the world that knows its GDP numbers three years in advance,” Faber told CNBC.

“I’d be a bit careful about China.”

A growing number of investors turned bullish on China after its markets began to rise last March, Faber notes, adding that it’s possible Chinese markets will continue to rise for a while.

“If you throw money at the system, lots of things go up in value — but maybe they go up for the wrong reasons. What disturbs me today … is that the lows in March and late last year, sentiment was incredibly bearish about everything.”

Now, Faber observes, “there’s this incredibly bullish sentiment when insiders are actually selling and the technical picture of the market doesn’t look that great.”

Faber believes the market faces headwinds because there’s a huge supply of available shares and a record number of new issues, which dampens share-price increases.

“My sense is that, near term, we could still have disappointments because now the mood is very optimistic. I don’t think we’ll make new market lows in Asia, but I do think we’ll have a meaningful correction.”

On Monday, China’s first initial public offering in nearly a year rose so high and so fast that regulators were forced to halt trading twice, The Washington Post reports. The Hang Seng index rose to double its low point last fall.
 
Read from Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Roach (an economist) that Chinese economy for the last year minus stimulus was probably growing at 2 percent. Stimulus probably pushed it to over 10%. If indeed total economic growth was only 2% then there would be no need for banking curbs. Therefore the stimulus was needed to prevent China from growing at 2% (which for 3rd world country is like a recession). Same as how US stimulus pulled US out of a recession.

Sometimes actions speaks louder then words. Just look at reserves, exports (booming exports reflect economic activity), imports of raw materials, Chinese companies buying up resource and oil companies/capacity internal consumption (TV, cars, housing).

Or you can just look at India. It was having a 6% growth rate. Now India had a bad agriculture season with late rains (economy is still predominately ag - remember that China has a much larger ag production per capita because of better productivity), it did not have as much $$ for stimulus, it has a much less developed industrial base (even see an india made product?). So if India had 6% then China was probably pushing 9% given the huge stimulus (see Chinese car sales).
 
Fundamentals of a country include the following: Better infra, hospitals, strong fiscal position, strong manufacturing base (impt for 3rd world) - just overtook Germany as numero uno exporter.

Expanding infra would open up interior, poorer provinces which would temper any rise in labor cost. In effect, I cannot see any country coming close to competiting with the Chinese as number 1 exporter for the next 20 years.

Remember that the Chinese are a developing economy with an 8% growth rate and strong fiscal position. With 8% growth rate it would be able to deflate prop bubble over a short time. If prop is 50 percent bubble, just the growth rate alone would whittle that down in 5 years.

Actaully if you just look at bloomberg or WSJ all you see is China, China China. It just goes to show the increasing influence the Chinese have in the global economy.


What are the 'fundamentals' that remain good ?
 
India is projecting growth rate of 8% for 2010. I am sure Chinese would probably do 8%. So unless india is also faking GDP ....

I really do not see why it is so difficult to implement an identity card system together with a POSB type banking to cater to the 456M who live on less than $1.25 a day. Hope this infosys billionaire is not trying to scam gov out of the $$$. Do not see why it will cost $6.6B to setup a national identification computer system.


By Bibhudatta Pradhan and Saikat Chatterjee

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Corrupt officials in the Indian state of Bihar steal a third of laborer Balram Singh’s $2.20 daily wage, withdrawing money from his post office account without providing proof of identity.

“We don’t get the full wages,” said Singh, 48, who toils in Jamui district in the eastern state under a jobs program set up in 2006 to tackle village poverty. Money is withdrawn and distributed by a supervisor, who takes a cut. “We just give a thumb print on a piece of paper,” said Singh, who is illiterate.

To help the hundreds of millions of rural poor like Singh, India turned to billionaire Infosys Technologies Ltd. founder Nandan Nilekani to devise a fraud-proof identity number. A year from now he’ll begin rolling out the world’s biggest biometric database to enable the half of India’s 1.2 billion people who lack access to financial services to open an ICICI Bank Ltd. account or sign up for a Vodafone Group Plc mobile phone.

“There is huge mass of people who don’t have any form of acknowledged existence,” Nilekani, who stepped down as co- chairman of Infosys in July to set up the Unique Identification Authority of India, said in an interview in New Delhi. “There is no limit to how this number can be used. It’s like a road. What travels on the road, we don’t know.”

A secure identity database will remove one of the biggest hurdles preventing the poor from accessing state benefits and the wider economy, Nilekani, 54, said.

Rapid Growth

Nilekani’s appointment was part of efforts by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’sCongress party-led government to increase incomes for more of the 456 million Indians the World Bank says live on less than $1.25 a day.

India, the world’s fastest growing major economy after China, may expand by up to 8 percent this fiscal year, according to the finance ministry, just shy of the average 8.7 percent growth in the four years ended March 31.
Nilekani, who at Infosys served clients including General Motors Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., plans to appoint a consultant next month to draft a tender to run the database that will include names, dates of birth, fingerprints and photographs.

“I’ve a mandate to give an identity number to every Indian resident and the two big drivers for that are to create one more form of inclusion and to improve the quality of public spending,” Nilekani, who aims to allot the first 16-digit number in February 2011 and cover 600 million people in five years, said Jan. 12.

While using the numbers won’t be compulsory, Nilekani said the program’s advantages will attract banks and utilities wanting to target fraud and help the government ensure subsidies that account for more than 14 percent of India’s total expenditure, or $28 billion, reach their intended beneficiaries.

Stop Corruption

“When you find ways and means to stop corruption, people find ways to circumvent it,” said Nikhil Dey, a founder of Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan, or Workers and Farmers Unity Organization, which works in the western state of Rajasthan and audits the jobs program that pays Balram Singh. Secure ID may cut fraud “but it will still need a constant vigil.” Technology will have to be extremely robust, he said.

India has experience of tallying and tracking people across the world’s biggest democracy -- 714 million people were eligible to vote in 2009’s parliamentary election. More than 40 million households across India, stretching from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean, participate in the jobs program.

Still, Nilekani will need to overcome technological challenges and ensure the project doesn’t exacerbate India’s budget deficit, estimated to reach a 16-year high in March. Nilekani told lawmakers Dec. 16 the program may cost about 300 billion rupees ($6.6 billion), without giving a time period.

Outweigh Benefits

“There is no clear estimate of the cost involved in implementing the project,” which could outweigh the benefits, said R. Ramakumar, an assistant professor specializing in rural development at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, in an interview from Mumbai.

Cost is the least of Rakesh Kumar’s worries. Kumar, 23, has been repairing shoes under a tree near India’s federal parliament in the capital after losing his job as a parking attendant in 2007. Nine years after leaving his Rajasthan village he doesn’t own a mobile phone and doesn’t receive the subsidized food and cooking gas he’s entitled to.

“It’s easy to buy a phone but they won’t give me a connection until I can provide an address proof,” said Kumar, who lives in an illegal settlement in the city’s south.

India has made it mandatory for mobile phone operators including New Delhi-based Bharti Airtel Ltd., India’s largest, to verify the identity of applicants to eliminate fake users and improve security.

The identity number project “has the potential to empower every citizen, bring transparency, and boost the economy -- if it’s implemented properly,” said Kris Dev, an e-governance consultant based in Chennai.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at [email protected]; Saikat Chatterjee in New Delhi at [email protected].

Last Updated: January 21, 2010 13:30 EST
 
Read from Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Roach (an economist) that Chinese economy for the last year minus stimulus was probably growing at 2 percent. Stimulus probably pushed it to over 10%. If indeed total economic growth was only 2% then there would be no need for banking curbs. Therefore the stimulus was needed to prevent China from growing at 2% (which for 3rd world country is like a recession). Same as how US stimulus pulled US out of a recession.

Sometimes actions speaks louder then words. Just look at reserves, exports (booming exports reflect economic activity), imports of raw materials, Chinese companies buying up resource and oil companies/capacity internal consumption (TV, cars, housing).

Or you can just look at India. It was having a 6% growth rate. Now India had a bad agriculture season with late rains (economy is still predominately ag - remember that China has a much larger ag production per capita because of better productivity), it did not have as much $$ for stimulus, it has a much less developed industrial base (even see an india made product?). So if India had 6% then China was probably pushing 9% given the huge stimulus (see Chinese car sales).

Thread has nothing to do with India.
Look..this thread is meant for info and cautionary purposes ..to save pain and misery to those who are burrowing blindly into speculative markets.

Thats the only sole aim here. Not for comparison between countries.

What about the reserves.?. The reserves are there for only one reason. To artificially sustain the exchange rates of the remimbi at a low level, by buying up the USD and hence increase its value. The amount of money being wasted is incredible.

Dont keep saying the figure Trillion.

Trillion Trillion. It is nothing, because the population overhang is Billion Billion. Its all relative.
 
something from an unofficial/unverifiable source.

Housing prices have dropped sharply in major cities has been the housing market is turning point
天涯社区 2010-01-23 10:58 Tianya 2010-01-23 10:58

各大城市房价纷纷大幅下跌,各地投资者纷纷抛售投机性住房,房价急速下跌势不可挡。 House prices have dropped sharply in major cities, local investors dumped speculative housing, house prices have fallen sharply unstoppable. 老百姓有活路了! There are means of subsistence of the people! ! !
北京本月房价下跌2210元,上海下跌1850元,广州下跌2400元,深圳下跌最多,跌幅达3200元。 Beijing this month, prices fell 2,210 yuan, Shanghai fell 1.85 thousand yuan, down 2,400 yuan in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, showed the largest decline up to 3200 yuan. 老百姓盼望已久的楼市拐点终于来临,虽然来得不够及时,但此次却是迈着坚定的步伐而来,势不可挡。 People of the property market, the long-awaited turning point has finally arrived, although not enough time has come, but this time it is with firm strides from irresistible. 从各大城市房价全线大幅下跌的势头来看,中国的房市已逐渐向健康方向发展,消费者已日渐趋于成熟和理性。 The major cities housing prices across the board from the sharp fall of the momentum of view, China's housing market has been gradually to the direction of healthy development, consumers have increasingly mature and rational.
中国经济要实现持续快速健康发展,社会要真正实现和谐稳定,房价大幅下跌势在必行。 China's economy to achieve sustained, rapid and healthy development of society to truly achieve a harmonious and stable, house prices fell sharply imperative. 据统计,09年中国城镇人均收入为2800美元,折合人民币19115元,中等以上城市收入稍高,充其量平均30000元。 According to statistics, in 2009 China's urban per capita income of 2800 U.S. dollars, equivalent to 19,115 yuan, slightly above the average urban incomes, at best, an average of 30,000 yuan. 目前,像济南这样的二线城市房价都在8000元以上,按中等以上城市平均房价8000元计算,买一套100平方这样不算大的房子,需要人民币80万元,相当于需要不吃不喝27年的工资才能买一套房! At present, the second-tier cities such as Jinan, prices are more than 8,000 yuan, according to the middle above the city average price of 8,000 yuan terms, to buy a 100 square so not a big house, need for 800,000 yuan, equivalent to need to eat do not drink before 27 years of his wages to buy a suite! 中国中等以上城市的房价收入比目前已达27:1。 Above average housing prices in Chinese cities than the current revenue has reached 27:1. 而德国人平均5年的收入可以买一套房;美国人大致4年的税前收入可以购买一栋200多平米的独居,在一些便宜的地区,一两年的收入可以购买一栋独居;瑞士售货员6年买百平米房;日本东京的房价收入比为4.8。 Germany on average 5-year income to buy a suite; Americans, roughly four-year pre-tax income to buy a more than 200 square meters of living alone, in some expensive areas, one or two years of income can buy a own; Switzerland salesman 6 years to buy 100 square meters room; Tokyo, Japan, price earnings ratio at 4.8. 纵观世界物价最高的一流城市,纳入居民“最难以承受”之列、房价收入比很高的城市有悉尼房价收入比为8.5,纽约7.9,伦敦6.9。 Looking at the world's most expensive first-class city, incorporated into the residents "the most unbearable," the list, the price earnings ratio of cities with a high price earnings ratio of 8.5 in Sydney, New York, 7.9, London 6.9. 悉尼名列前茅,但应注意,悉尼户均居住面积187平米,由房价收入比的公式可知,在分母不变的情况下(家庭年均收入不变),房价收入比与房屋面积正相关,如果将悉尼的户均居住面积187平米减半,即减为90平米,悉尼的房价收入比只有4.25。 Sydney among the best, but it should be noted that Sydney living space of 187 square meters per household from the price earnings ratio formula we can see, in the denominator unchanged (average family income unchanged), house prices and housing area income ratio was positively correlated If you live in Sydney, an area of 187 square meters per household halved, reduced to 90 square meters, house prices in Sydney income ratio is only 4.25.
简单的数据足以说明国内民众生活的水深火热的程度。 The data illustrate a simple life for people in dire national level. 严重扭曲的不合理的房价已经掏空了千千万万买房自住者现在的和将来的一辈子的血汗钱。 Seriously distorted and irrational prices have been emptied of the hundreds of thousands of home-buyers buy a house now and the future life of the hard-earned money. 目前,楼市已成为中国最危险的投资领域。 At present, the property market has become the most dangerous areas of investment. 虚高的房价已经强烈地剥夺了人民的幸福。 Unrealistically high home prices are already strongly denied the happiness of the people.
现在房地产泡沫已经巨大无比,这是由于无休止的贪婪与掠夺造成的。 Now the real estate bubble has been huge and this is because the endless greed and plunder making. 不断哄抬的房价就像越吹越大的气球,己经到了千钧一发的严峻时刻了。 House prices rose sharply higher as blowing balloons, had been to the critical juncture of a close call. 在次贷危机发生前,美国存在次贷问题。 In the sub-prime crisis began, the U.S. sub-prime problem exists. 而在现在,中国存在房地产泡沫危机,这个问题的严重程度不会亚于美国正在遭遇的次贷金融经济危机。 In China now there is a crisis the real estate bubble, the magnitude of the problem is not being experienced by Asia in the United States subprime mortgage financial and economic crisis. 房地产泡沫一破裂,接下来中国经济预计将步入至少5年以上的长期衰退。 A real estate bubble burst, followed by China's economy is expected to be at least 5 years or more into the long-term decline. 大量投资空置房将如潮水般涌出,房价漫漫熊途将难以估量。 Vacant housing would be as substantial investment pouring flood, house prices will be difficult to measure the long Xiongtu.
via : http://news.qingdaomedia.com/system/2010/01/23/010027411.shtml
translated via : http://translate.google.com/#

first saw via : http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=313757
linked via : http://forums.fuckwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?p=43478010

==========================

personally, i do a simple math.

last time, it's 7 years to an apartment. 1 year to a car. early 90s.
now? it's over 20 years to an apartment, 3 years to a car.

that's for the everyday guy on the street. for the executive though, they can probably still maintain that earlier ratio. only concern is how it was financed, if it was similar to the guys in USA, then they would probably face a similar issue.

otherwise, they would be fine. knowing how chinese keep and save their salary/earnings. unless they spend it on drinking, gambling, ladies etc.

the rental yield is also a good indicator of how things are moving. if property prices are so high, and rental prices are dipping, then what does that mean?

having said that, China propery market is very big. and as per all things China, it cannot be viewed as a whole. each individual province, cities, town would have it's own peculiarities. as such, each would be subjected to their own pricing range n people's comfortable range of re-payment period. be it 7 to 20 years (or more!).

as long as the economy is growing, as long as people make money. and many are betting heavily that they will.

the million dollar question is : "will they?"
 
something from an unofficial/unverifiable source.

Housing prices have dropped sharply in major cities has been the housing market is turning point
天涯社区 2010-01-23 10:58 Tianya 2010-01-23 10:58

the million dollar question is : "will they?"

as long as speculators r there, demand be always there. Real or imaginary dun matter. profit come first. then kaboom
 
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