OCBC Investment Research analyst Andy Wong: A sledgehammer to kill a fly. These cooling measures were not in our base case, given that private residential prices have only started to increase by less than 10 per cent since the second quarter of 2017 trough, while the smaller rate of quarter-on-quarter increase in 2Q18 appeared to have dispelled concerns about a tighter regulatory environment. While we previously argued that the positive outlook presented a buying opportunity in the midst of the (residential) sector correction, we no longer believe this to be the case.
JLL head of research and consultancy, Singapore, Tay Huey Ying: The measures should achieve their intended objectives of cooling demand and moderating price growth, as almost all categories of buyers have been affected. This explains the rush to snap up their dream homes the night before the measures kick in.
We expect sales to stall as soon as the measures become effective as buyers step back to evaluate the financial implications and developers reassess pricing strategies. The home market may only start to see some signs of activity in September after the lunar seventh month. Even then, we expect sales volume to stay subdued unless developers adopt competitive marketing strategies.The collective sales market will also be dampened as developers become wary of end-demand and are hurt by the 5 per cent non-remittable ABSD on land purchase. This will have an impact on their offer prices.
All said, we feel the additional measures have been introduced too hastily coming just after 9.1 per cent growth in PPI (Producer Price Index) over four quarters. The market should have been given a chance to find its own level in response to the expected surge in launches in coming months.
The biggest gainers following this set of measures will likely be owners of strata-offices and shophouses approved for commercial use. The Government's swift response to curb home price growth has tampered the prospects of residential properties as attractive investments. Investors looking for alternatives to park their money could divert their attention to the strata office and shophouse markets as they are not subjected to this round of purchase or sales restrictions/encumbrances.
CBRE: Property developers will be affected most from these changes on their land acquisition costs. Property developers will now have to pay 25 per cent on a land acquisition based on the land cost instead of the previous 15 per cent. Although this is remissible when the property developer manages to completely sell all the units in the development within five years, there is a new additional 5 per cent ABSD tax on the transaction price imposed where it will not be remissible.
These measures are introduced to increase extra prudence on the demand side while extra tariffs are imposed on the supply side to curb the exuberance in land prices which could have eventually resulted in even higher property prices in the long term.
While we are not surprised at more measures given the emergence of warnings in calibrated measures in Q4 2017, we are surprised by its severity, which suggests the Government is evidently fearful of a bubble building up amid a rising interest rate environment and sizeable unsold launch pipeline.