More riots to erupt in China as jobless rate soars
Sate-run magazine warns of anger among migrant workers and grads who can't find jobs
Crowd control was in order as job seekers flocked to a job fair in Zhengzhou, Henan province, last month. One of the biggest threats to China's social fabric will come from university graduates facing a shrinking job market. -- PHOTO: REUTERS
BEIJING: China faces surging protests and riots this year as rising unemployment stokes discontent, a state-run magazine said in an unusually stark warning about the social impact of a sharp economic downturn.
This week's Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine, issued by the official Xinhua news agency, said faltering growth could spark anger among millions of migrant workers and university graduates who are left jobless.
'Without doubt, now we are entering a peak period for mass incidents,' a senior Xinhua reporter, Mr Huang Huo, told the magazine in the report published in a dialogue format. 'Mass incident' is the official euphemism for riots and protests.
'This year, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and government.'
China also faces a year of politically tense anniversaries, especially the 20th year since the Tiananmen Incident.
But the biggest threats to China's social fabric will come from graduating university students facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes, and from a tide of migrant labourers who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have closed down.
Coastal provinces that have provided millions of lowly paid workers with jobs have reported a leap in the number returning to their farm homes without work. An estimated 10 million rural migrant workers have lost their jobs, the magazine said.
'Many of these migrants were born after 1980, and this new generation holds higher hopes than their fathers about urban prospects but lack the endurance for hardship. According to one survey, 80 per cent of them would stay back in cities even without jobs,' said Mr Huang, the chief of Xinhua's bureau in the south-west city of Chongqing.
'This year, if there is a large number of unemployed migrant labourers who cannot find work for half a year or longer milling around in cities with no income, the problem will be even more serious.'
The Outlook report also said protests are increasingly politicised, making it harder for officials to douse them by force or cash handouts.
'Social conflicts have already formed a certain social mass base so that as soon as there is an appropriate fuse, it always swiftly explodes and clashes escalate quickly,' said Mr Huang.
Still he saw hope in the peaceful resolution of a few recent 'mass incidents' through dialogue.
Mr Ian Bremmer, president of the prominent political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said he foresaw no impending overwhelming crisis in China. 'The party has built a large stockpile of domestic goodwill over the past three decades,' he said. 'Toughening economic times will erode some of that credit, but the reserves are too deep for China to reach a crisis point this year.'
Renmin University's Professor Mao Shoulong said the magazine report and other recent open warnings may be intended to get officials to snap to attention.
REUTERS
Sate-run magazine warns of anger among migrant workers and grads who can't find jobs
Crowd control was in order as job seekers flocked to a job fair in Zhengzhou, Henan province, last month. One of the biggest threats to China's social fabric will come from university graduates facing a shrinking job market. -- PHOTO: REUTERS
BEIJING: China faces surging protests and riots this year as rising unemployment stokes discontent, a state-run magazine said in an unusually stark warning about the social impact of a sharp economic downturn.
This week's Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine, issued by the official Xinhua news agency, said faltering growth could spark anger among millions of migrant workers and university graduates who are left jobless.
'Without doubt, now we are entering a peak period for mass incidents,' a senior Xinhua reporter, Mr Huang Huo, told the magazine in the report published in a dialogue format. 'Mass incident' is the official euphemism for riots and protests.
'This year, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and government.'
China also faces a year of politically tense anniversaries, especially the 20th year since the Tiananmen Incident.
But the biggest threats to China's social fabric will come from graduating university students facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes, and from a tide of migrant labourers who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have closed down.
Coastal provinces that have provided millions of lowly paid workers with jobs have reported a leap in the number returning to their farm homes without work. An estimated 10 million rural migrant workers have lost their jobs, the magazine said.
'Many of these migrants were born after 1980, and this new generation holds higher hopes than their fathers about urban prospects but lack the endurance for hardship. According to one survey, 80 per cent of them would stay back in cities even without jobs,' said Mr Huang, the chief of Xinhua's bureau in the south-west city of Chongqing.
'This year, if there is a large number of unemployed migrant labourers who cannot find work for half a year or longer milling around in cities with no income, the problem will be even more serious.'
The Outlook report also said protests are increasingly politicised, making it harder for officials to douse them by force or cash handouts.
'Social conflicts have already formed a certain social mass base so that as soon as there is an appropriate fuse, it always swiftly explodes and clashes escalate quickly,' said Mr Huang.
Still he saw hope in the peaceful resolution of a few recent 'mass incidents' through dialogue.
Mr Ian Bremmer, president of the prominent political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said he foresaw no impending overwhelming crisis in China. 'The party has built a large stockpile of domestic goodwill over the past three decades,' he said. 'Toughening economic times will erode some of that credit, but the reserves are too deep for China to reach a crisis point this year.'
Renmin University's Professor Mao Shoulong said the magazine report and other recent open warnings may be intended to get officials to snap to attention.
REUTERS
