A retired WP member recently explained to me about the 3 tiers of 'opposition politicians'. The calibre of opposition is the single most controllable factor for every opposition party, and to maximise chances of breaking PAP's stranglehold, you need candidates equal or superior to the average PAP backbencher.
List 1 names have household name recognition, and at least a 50% chance of winning against most PAP backbenchers. List 2 names have been around for a while, and have brand value for one reason or another. List 3 is everyone else
List 1
Low Thia Khiang
Sylvia Lim
Chiam See Tong
List 2
Eric Tan
Yaw Shin Leong
Goh Meng Seng
Sebastian Teo
Chee Soon Juan
Cheo Chai Chen
Steve Chia
Glenda Han
What is striking is that it seems that this election has unearthed many gems. All these, in my mind, already make List 2 unless they poll under 40% in their consituency. Anyone who wins a seat gets a pass onto List 1
Chen Show Mao, Pritam, Gerald Giam, Nicole Seah, Tony Tan, Hazel Poa, Kenneth Jeyaratnam, Benjamin Pwee, Jimmy Lee, Lina Chiam, Teo Soh Lung, Vincent Wijeysingha, Ang Yong Guan, Tan Jee Say, Alex Tok, Jeanette Aruldoss Chong
That's a huge expansion of List 2 in just this one election, a great rejuvenation. Most opposition parties have upped their game, strengthened their leadership and hence credibility. I look at the parties in 2006 vs the parties in 2011.
1. PAP has weakened. More yes men, more hired guns out for money. A few true believers from the usual NTUC and military.
Progress report: D. Expected results: Net loss of seats
2. WP has strengthened. They always had the big 2, and now they have added the bluest of blue chips. Pritam was the bargain find, unheralded but more than pulling his weight.
Progress report: B+. Expected results: Net gain of seats
3. NSP. The surprise of this election. From a one-man GMS show, NSP now have Hazel, Jeanette, Tony Tan, Nicole...NSP are the main beneficiaries of the RP implosion. If only they can keep it together without further implosions. Big questions remain: Can GMS sort out the leadership pecking order post election? Will Steve Chia keep his pants on? Can they be anything more than the 'wild-card' party?
Progress report: A-. Expected results: Net gain of seats
3. SPP. The second surprise. Most election watchers had them for dead. But it looks like Lina Chiam may yet hold Potong Pasir and CST is in with a shout to win Bishan. But even if he doesn't, he has unearthed promising replacements in Pwee and Lee. Now those two need to grow the party in a way that CST had been unable to.
Progress report: B-. Expected results: No gain/loss of seats.
4. SDP has strengthened incredibly. Chee Soon Juan may have gotten a bum deal from the mainstream media, but perception is perception. With Vincent, Ang, TJS, Teo, Alex Tok, SDP has five very credible candidates, including one or two future secretary general material, and a world of good in repairing media-moulded mainstream perception that this is Crazy Chee's party.
Progress report: A. Expected results: Net gain of seats.
5. Reform Party. Ouch. Aruldoss, Nicole, Alex Tok, Hazel, Tony. There was enough talent and buzz in this crew to win a GRC and a couple of SMCs. Reform Party could have been conceivably been the largest opposition party. Oh well. Hope Kenneth sticks around and learns not to leash young talent too tight the next time gifthorses present themselves. KJ, you ain't running a hedge fund here! Politics is a people business. Chances are that, if he doesn't quit and learn from his mistakes, talent will continue to look for him because of his credentials and JBJ's reputation.
Progress Report: D. Expected results: No gain/loss
List 1 names have household name recognition, and at least a 50% chance of winning against most PAP backbenchers. List 2 names have been around for a while, and have brand value for one reason or another. List 3 is everyone else
List 1
Low Thia Khiang
Sylvia Lim
Chiam See Tong
List 2
Eric Tan
Yaw Shin Leong
Goh Meng Seng
Sebastian Teo
Chee Soon Juan
Cheo Chai Chen
Steve Chia
Glenda Han
What is striking is that it seems that this election has unearthed many gems. All these, in my mind, already make List 2 unless they poll under 40% in their consituency. Anyone who wins a seat gets a pass onto List 1
Chen Show Mao, Pritam, Gerald Giam, Nicole Seah, Tony Tan, Hazel Poa, Kenneth Jeyaratnam, Benjamin Pwee, Jimmy Lee, Lina Chiam, Teo Soh Lung, Vincent Wijeysingha, Ang Yong Guan, Tan Jee Say, Alex Tok, Jeanette Aruldoss Chong
That's a huge expansion of List 2 in just this one election, a great rejuvenation. Most opposition parties have upped their game, strengthened their leadership and hence credibility. I look at the parties in 2006 vs the parties in 2011.
1. PAP has weakened. More yes men, more hired guns out for money. A few true believers from the usual NTUC and military.
Progress report: D. Expected results: Net loss of seats
2. WP has strengthened. They always had the big 2, and now they have added the bluest of blue chips. Pritam was the bargain find, unheralded but more than pulling his weight.
Progress report: B+. Expected results: Net gain of seats
3. NSP. The surprise of this election. From a one-man GMS show, NSP now have Hazel, Jeanette, Tony Tan, Nicole...NSP are the main beneficiaries of the RP implosion. If only they can keep it together without further implosions. Big questions remain: Can GMS sort out the leadership pecking order post election? Will Steve Chia keep his pants on? Can they be anything more than the 'wild-card' party?
Progress report: A-. Expected results: Net gain of seats
3. SPP. The second surprise. Most election watchers had them for dead. But it looks like Lina Chiam may yet hold Potong Pasir and CST is in with a shout to win Bishan. But even if he doesn't, he has unearthed promising replacements in Pwee and Lee. Now those two need to grow the party in a way that CST had been unable to.
Progress report: B-. Expected results: No gain/loss of seats.
4. SDP has strengthened incredibly. Chee Soon Juan may have gotten a bum deal from the mainstream media, but perception is perception. With Vincent, Ang, TJS, Teo, Alex Tok, SDP has five very credible candidates, including one or two future secretary general material, and a world of good in repairing media-moulded mainstream perception that this is Crazy Chee's party.
Progress report: A. Expected results: Net gain of seats.
5. Reform Party. Ouch. Aruldoss, Nicole, Alex Tok, Hazel, Tony. There was enough talent and buzz in this crew to win a GRC and a couple of SMCs. Reform Party could have been conceivably been the largest opposition party. Oh well. Hope Kenneth sticks around and learns not to leash young talent too tight the next time gifthorses present themselves. KJ, you ain't running a hedge fund here! Politics is a people business. Chances are that, if he doesn't quit and learn from his mistakes, talent will continue to look for him because of his credentials and JBJ's reputation.
Progress Report: D. Expected results: No gain/loss
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