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https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/dgby/2019-04-05/doc-ihvhiewr3338886.shtml
德国工业如“自由落体”式下滑 指望中国能带来转机
德国工业如“自由落体”式下滑 指望中国能带来转机
123
[编译/观察者网 史雨轩]
作为欧洲经济“发动机”，德国工业前途堪忧，订单持续下滑，PMI指数不断下跌，甚至有专家认为下行趋势如同“自由落体”。
路透社4月4日报道称，受出口下降影响，德国工业2月订单经历了两年多来最大下滑，几家顶级机构将德国2019年经济增速预测，从去年9月的1.9%，调至0.8%。
德国一些专家表示，寄希望于中国的经济刺激政策上，希望作为最大贸易伙伴的中国能为德国经济带来转机。
图源：“周刊”杂志（theweek）
德国工业订单创2年多最大跌幅
德国联邦经济部周四公布数据显示，今年2月，德国工业界订单总量比上个月下降了4.2%（1月也下降了2.1%），创2017年1月以来最大跌幅；同比下降8.4%，创2009年8月以来最大跌幅，下降原因主要是国外订单量的大幅减少。
此前，马基特经济研究公司公布的3月德国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）降至80个月来的最低点：44.1。这个数据低于2月份的47.6，也低于44.7的预期值。（德国制造业大约占经济总量的五分之一）
这是该指数连续第三个月低于50。PMI是通过对采购经理的月度调查汇总出来的指数，反映了经济的变化趋势，50为荣枯分水线。
联邦经济部（BMWi）表示，“在接下来几个月的时间里，尤其是国外需求的疲软会让德国工业界的发展前景继续让人无法乐观。”
路透社调查显示，全球经济走弱，英国无协议脱欧可能性增大，以及贸易摩擦，都让德国制造业以2012年7月以来最快速度萎缩。
德国工业订单量（图源：经济分析博客“ZeroHedge”）
近10年德国制造业PMI走势
“德国工业界几乎在自由落体”
因经济数据暴跌，包括德国经济研究所（DIW）、IFW（基尔世界经济研究所）、IWH（哈勒经济研究所）在内5家德国领先研究机构，4月4日联合发布报告，将德国2019年经济增速预测，从去年的1.9%下调至目前0.8%，2020年则维持不变，仍为1.8%。
德国经济学家对经济滑坡速度感到惊讶。得卡（Deka）银行高级经济学家施伊尔勒（Andreas Scheuerle）接受路透社采访时表示，“最新数据让人十分失望，全球经济形势在再一次让德国工业陷入困境”，他语锋一转，称“全球经济目前处于大幅转向状态，动力主要来自亚洲。”
巴登-符腾堡州银行（LBBW）的经济学家尼科拉什（Jens-Oliver Niklasch）则更为悲观，他直言不讳的指出“目前德国工业界几乎是在自由落体”，他认为一大原因是英国脱欧带来的高度不确定性，英国是德国主要贸易伙伴之一，未来与欧盟关系如何尚无定论。
5家机构的联合研究报告
寄希望于中国
路透社称，一些专家认为，中国的发展能为德国工业带来转机和希望。
德国VP银行首席经济师吉泽尔（Thomas Gitzel）认为，“目前订单量表明，德国经济处于下滑趋势”。他还指出，“经济下滑趋势持续时间，主要取决于中国政府的经济刺激政策，以及该政策多久能为欧洲带来积极的促进作用。”
2019年4月1日起，中国国内增值税迎来大规模减税，主要内容包括四项：降低税率、扩大抵扣、留抵退税、加计抵减，同时财政部宣布开展新一轮基建计划。
2月18日，新华社援引德国联邦统计局数据显示，2018年中国连续第三年成为德国最大贸易伙伴，双边贸易总额为1993亿欧元（约合1.5万亿元人民币）。
2018年，德国从中国总进口额为1062亿欧元；同时，德国向中国出口总额为931亿欧元。德国对华贸易逆差约为130亿欧元，连续第三年减少。
根据这一最新数据，去年中国是德国最大的进口来源国，也是德国第三大出口目的地国。
德国联邦外贸与投资署总经理于尔根·弗里德里希表示，德国对华贸易逆差逐步减少，“显示中国市场对德国制造产品越来越青睐，同时中国一如既往地是德国重要出口市场”。
另外，数据显示，荷兰是德国第二大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额为1894亿欧元；美国是德国第三大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额为1780亿欧元。
本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。
German industry such as "free fall" decline, expecting China to bring a turn
German industry such as "free fall" decline, expecting China to bring a turn
123
[Compile / Observer Network Shi Yuxuan]
As the "engine" of the European economy, the future of Germany's industry is worrisome, orders continue to decline, the PMI index continues to fall, and even some experts believe that the downward trend is like "free fall."
Reuters reported on April 4 that German industrial orders in February experienced the biggest decline in more than two years due to the decline in exports. Several top institutions adjusted Germany's economic growth forecast for 2019 from 1.9% in September last year. To 0.8%.
Some German experts said that they hope that China, as its largest trading partner, will bring a turn for the German economy.
Source: "weekly" magazine (theweek)
German industrial orders hit the biggest decline in more than 2 years
According to data released by the German Federal Ministry of Economics on Thursday, in February this year, the total number of orders from German industry fell by 4.2% from the previous month (down 2.1% in January), the largest decline since January 2017; %, the biggest decline since August 2009, the main reason for the decline is the large reduction in foreign orders.
Earlier, Markit Economic Research released the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March to the lowest point in 80 months: 44.1. This figure is lower than the 47.6 in February and below the expected value of 44.7. (German manufacturing accounts for about one-fifth of the total economy)
This is the index's third consecutive month below 50. PMI is an index that is compiled through a monthly survey of purchasing managers, reflecting the changing trend of the economy, and 50 is the watershed.
The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs (BMWi) said, "In the next few months, especially the weak foreign demand will make the development prospects of the German industry continue to be unoptimistic."
Reuters survey shows that the global economy is weak, the possibility of a non-agreement to leave the UK, and trade frictions have caused German manufacturing to shrink at its fastest pace since July 2012.
German industrial order volume (Source: Economic Analysis Blog "ZeroHedge")
German manufacturing PMI trend in the past 10 years
“The German industry is almost free to fall”
Due to the collapse of economic data, five leading German research institutions, including the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW), IFW (Kiere Institute for World Economics) and IWH (Halle Economic Research Institute), jointly issued a report on April 4, Germany's economic growth forecast for 2019 has been revised down from 1.9% last year to 0.8% today, and remained unchanged at 2020, still at 1.8%.
German economists were surprised by the economic downturn. Deka Bank senior economist Andreas Scheuerle said in an interview with Reuters, "The latest data is very disappointing, and the global economic situation is once again putting German industry in trouble." Turned, saying that "the global economy is currently in a state of sharp turn, and the power is mainly from Asia."
Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an economist at the Bank of Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), is even more pessimistic. He bluntly pointed out that “the German industry is now almost free-falling”, he believes that The main reason is the high degree of uncertainty brought about by Brexit. The UK is one of Germany's major trading partners, and the future relationship with the EU is still inconclusive.
Joint research report of 5 institutions
Hope in China
Reuters said that some experts believe that China's development can bring a turning point and hope for German industry.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank in Germany, believes that “the current order volume indicates that the German economy is in a downward trend”. He also pointed out that "the duration of the economic downturn depends mainly on the Chinese government's economic stimulus policy and how long it will bring positive effects to Europe."
Since April 1, 2019, China's domestic value-added tax has ushered in large-scale tax reductions. The main contents include four items: lowering the tax rate, expanding the deduction, leaving the tax rebate, and adding deductions. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced a new round of infrastructure construction. plan.
On February 18, Xinhua News Agency quoted data from the German Federal Statistical Office. In 2018, China became Germany's largest trading partner for the third consecutive year, with bilateral trade totaling 19.3 billion euros (about 1.5 trillion yuan).
In 2018, Germany's total imports from China were 106.2 billion euros; at the same time, Germany's exports to China totaled 93.1 billion euros. Germany’s trade deficit with China is about 13 billion euros, the third consecutive year of decline.
According to this latest data, China was Germany's largest source of imports last year and Germany's third largest export destination.
German Federal Foreign Trade and Investment Director General Jürgen Friedrich said that Germany's trade deficit with China has gradually decreased. "It shows that the Chinese market is increasingly favored by German-made products, and China is as always an important export market for Germany."
In addition, the data shows that the Netherlands is Germany's second largest trading partner, bilateral trade volume of 189.4 billion euros; the United States is Germany's third largest trading partner, bilateral trade volume of 178 billion euros.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.
德国工业如“自由落体”式下滑 指望中国能带来转机
德国工业如“自由落体”式下滑 指望中国能带来转机
123
[编译/观察者网 史雨轩]
作为欧洲经济“发动机”，德国工业前途堪忧，订单持续下滑，PMI指数不断下跌，甚至有专家认为下行趋势如同“自由落体”。
路透社4月4日报道称，受出口下降影响，德国工业2月订单经历了两年多来最大下滑，几家顶级机构将德国2019年经济增速预测，从去年9月的1.9%，调至0.8%。
德国一些专家表示，寄希望于中国的经济刺激政策上，希望作为最大贸易伙伴的中国能为德国经济带来转机。
图源：“周刊”杂志（theweek）
德国工业订单创2年多最大跌幅
德国联邦经济部周四公布数据显示，今年2月，德国工业界订单总量比上个月下降了4.2%（1月也下降了2.1%），创2017年1月以来最大跌幅；同比下降8.4%，创2009年8月以来最大跌幅，下降原因主要是国外订单量的大幅减少。
此前，马基特经济研究公司公布的3月德国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）降至80个月来的最低点：44.1。这个数据低于2月份的47.6，也低于44.7的预期值。（德国制造业大约占经济总量的五分之一）
这是该指数连续第三个月低于50。PMI是通过对采购经理的月度调查汇总出来的指数，反映了经济的变化趋势，50为荣枯分水线。
联邦经济部（BMWi）表示，“在接下来几个月的时间里，尤其是国外需求的疲软会让德国工业界的发展前景继续让人无法乐观。”
路透社调查显示，全球经济走弱，英国无协议脱欧可能性增大，以及贸易摩擦，都让德国制造业以2012年7月以来最快速度萎缩。
德国工业订单量（图源：经济分析博客“ZeroHedge”）
近10年德国制造业PMI走势
“德国工业界几乎在自由落体”
因经济数据暴跌，包括德国经济研究所（DIW）、IFW（基尔世界经济研究所）、IWH（哈勒经济研究所）在内5家德国领先研究机构，4月4日联合发布报告，将德国2019年经济增速预测，从去年的1.9%下调至目前0.8%，2020年则维持不变，仍为1.8%。
德国经济学家对经济滑坡速度感到惊讶。得卡（Deka）银行高级经济学家施伊尔勒（Andreas Scheuerle）接受路透社采访时表示，“最新数据让人十分失望，全球经济形势在再一次让德国工业陷入困境”，他语锋一转，称“全球经济目前处于大幅转向状态，动力主要来自亚洲。”
巴登-符腾堡州银行（LBBW）的经济学家尼科拉什（Jens-Oliver Niklasch）则更为悲观，他直言不讳的指出“目前德国工业界几乎是在自由落体”，他认为一大原因是英国脱欧带来的高度不确定性，英国是德国主要贸易伙伴之一，未来与欧盟关系如何尚无定论。
5家机构的联合研究报告
寄希望于中国
路透社称，一些专家认为，中国的发展能为德国工业带来转机和希望。
德国VP银行首席经济师吉泽尔（Thomas Gitzel）认为，“目前订单量表明，德国经济处于下滑趋势”。他还指出，“经济下滑趋势持续时间，主要取决于中国政府的经济刺激政策，以及该政策多久能为欧洲带来积极的促进作用。”
2019年4月1日起，中国国内增值税迎来大规模减税，主要内容包括四项：降低税率、扩大抵扣、留抵退税、加计抵减，同时财政部宣布开展新一轮基建计划。
2月18日，新华社援引德国联邦统计局数据显示，2018年中国连续第三年成为德国最大贸易伙伴，双边贸易总额为1993亿欧元（约合1.5万亿元人民币）。
2018年，德国从中国总进口额为1062亿欧元；同时，德国向中国出口总额为931亿欧元。德国对华贸易逆差约为130亿欧元，连续第三年减少。
根据这一最新数据，去年中国是德国最大的进口来源国，也是德国第三大出口目的地国。
德国联邦外贸与投资署总经理于尔根·弗里德里希表示，德国对华贸易逆差逐步减少，“显示中国市场对德国制造产品越来越青睐，同时中国一如既往地是德国重要出口市场”。
另外，数据显示，荷兰是德国第二大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额为1894亿欧元；美国是德国第三大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额为1780亿欧元。
本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。
German industry such as "free fall" decline, expecting China to bring a turn
German industry such as "free fall" decline, expecting China to bring a turn
123
[Compile / Observer Network Shi Yuxuan]
As the "engine" of the European economy, the future of Germany's industry is worrisome, orders continue to decline, the PMI index continues to fall, and even some experts believe that the downward trend is like "free fall."
Reuters reported on April 4 that German industrial orders in February experienced the biggest decline in more than two years due to the decline in exports. Several top institutions adjusted Germany's economic growth forecast for 2019 from 1.9% in September last year. To 0.8%.
Some German experts said that they hope that China, as its largest trading partner, will bring a turn for the German economy.
Source: "weekly" magazine (theweek)
German industrial orders hit the biggest decline in more than 2 years
According to data released by the German Federal Ministry of Economics on Thursday, in February this year, the total number of orders from German industry fell by 4.2% from the previous month (down 2.1% in January), the largest decline since January 2017; %, the biggest decline since August 2009, the main reason for the decline is the large reduction in foreign orders.
Earlier, Markit Economic Research released the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March to the lowest point in 80 months: 44.1. This figure is lower than the 47.6 in February and below the expected value of 44.7. (German manufacturing accounts for about one-fifth of the total economy)
This is the index's third consecutive month below 50. PMI is an index that is compiled through a monthly survey of purchasing managers, reflecting the changing trend of the economy, and 50 is the watershed.
The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs (BMWi) said, "In the next few months, especially the weak foreign demand will make the development prospects of the German industry continue to be unoptimistic."
Reuters survey shows that the global economy is weak, the possibility of a non-agreement to leave the UK, and trade frictions have caused German manufacturing to shrink at its fastest pace since July 2012.
German industrial order volume (Source: Economic Analysis Blog "ZeroHedge")
German manufacturing PMI trend in the past 10 years
“The German industry is almost free to fall”
Due to the collapse of economic data, five leading German research institutions, including the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW), IFW (Kiere Institute for World Economics) and IWH (Halle Economic Research Institute), jointly issued a report on April 4, Germany's economic growth forecast for 2019 has been revised down from 1.9% last year to 0.8% today, and remained unchanged at 2020, still at 1.8%.
German economists were surprised by the economic downturn. Deka Bank senior economist Andreas Scheuerle said in an interview with Reuters, "The latest data is very disappointing, and the global economic situation is once again putting German industry in trouble." Turned, saying that "the global economy is currently in a state of sharp turn, and the power is mainly from Asia."
Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an economist at the Bank of Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), is even more pessimistic. He bluntly pointed out that “the German industry is now almost free-falling”, he believes that The main reason is the high degree of uncertainty brought about by Brexit. The UK is one of Germany's major trading partners, and the future relationship with the EU is still inconclusive.
Joint research report of 5 institutions
Hope in China
Reuters said that some experts believe that China's development can bring a turning point and hope for German industry.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank in Germany, believes that “the current order volume indicates that the German economy is in a downward trend”. He also pointed out that "the duration of the economic downturn depends mainly on the Chinese government's economic stimulus policy and how long it will bring positive effects to Europe."
Since April 1, 2019, China's domestic value-added tax has ushered in large-scale tax reductions. The main contents include four items: lowering the tax rate, expanding the deduction, leaving the tax rebate, and adding deductions. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced a new round of infrastructure construction. plan.
On February 18, Xinhua News Agency quoted data from the German Federal Statistical Office. In 2018, China became Germany's largest trading partner for the third consecutive year, with bilateral trade totaling 19.3 billion euros (about 1.5 trillion yuan).
In 2018, Germany's total imports from China were 106.2 billion euros; at the same time, Germany's exports to China totaled 93.1 billion euros. Germany’s trade deficit with China is about 13 billion euros, the third consecutive year of decline.
According to this latest data, China was Germany's largest source of imports last year and Germany's third largest export destination.
German Federal Foreign Trade and Investment Director General Jürgen Friedrich said that Germany's trade deficit with China has gradually decreased. "It shows that the Chinese market is increasingly favored by German-made products, and China is as always an important export market for Germany."
In addition, the data shows that the Netherlands is Germany's second largest trading partner, bilateral trade volume of 189.4 billion euros; the United States is Germany's third largest trading partner, bilateral trade volume of 178 billion euros.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.
