Labor unrest in China could be Mexico's gain

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Labor unrest in China could be Mexico's gain

David Welch on June 10, 2010

It seems like Chinese workers want a bigger piece of the economic pie. The recent strike at a Honda transmission factory ended with workers getting 24 percent wage hikes. But don’t expect U.S. auto workers to start winning back work from China. The more likely beneficiaries are in Mexico.

The rising wages in Chinese auto plants just about match the $7 an hour all-in cost, including benefits, in Mexican plants, says Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.

If you add in the $1,200 to $2,000 per-car cost to ship vehicles across the Pacific, ‘Ole Mexico looks better all the time. Shipping auto parts is cheaper than sending a whole cars across the ocean, but you get the idea.

Same goes for auto parts factories. Mexico has tariff-free trade deals with 25 countries, McAlinden says. That makes it an ideal place to bring in raw materials and then ship cars or parts. In fact, if Chinese carmakers want to invade the North America market, building in Mexico might be there best bet. McAlinden says that 16% of North American vehicle production is in Mexico and he expects it to grow to 20% in the next few years.

Japanese automakers have even asked suppliers to set up shop in Mexico—not Asia—to supply parts to their U.S. plants, McAlinden said. The U.S. will still go begging for those jobs.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

A growing number of economists say the unrest proves that it is not the exchange rate but years of sweatshop wages and income inequality in China that have distorted global competition and stifled domestic demand. The influential Far Eastern Economic Review headlined its latest issue “The coming crack-up of the China Model”.

Yasheng Huang, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said corruption and a deeply flawed model of economic reform had led to a collapse in personal income growth and a wealth gap that could leave China looking like a Latin American economy.

Richard Duncan, a partner at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore, has argued that the only way to create consumers is to raise wages to a legal minimum of $5 (£3.50) a day across Asia – a “trickle up” theory.

The instability may peak when millions of migrant workers flood back from celebrating the Chinese new year to find they no longer have jobs. That spells political trouble and there are already signs that the government’s $585 billion stimulus package will not be enough to achieve its goal of 8% growth this year...

A legal advocate for migrant workers, Xiao Qingshan, told a tale of violent intimidation by the state in collusion with unscrupulous businessmen.

On January 9, Xiao said, 14 security officers from the local labour bureau broke into his office, confiscated 600 legal case files, 160 law books, his computer, his photocopier, his television set and 100,000 yuan in cash.

“That evening I was ambushed near the office by five strangers who forced a black bag over my head and then threw me into a shallow polluted canal,” he said. His landlord has since given him notice to quit his rented home.

Xiao said he was defying bribery and threats to speak to the foreign media because he wants international businesses to know what is really happening in “the workshop of the world”.

Violent unrest rocks China as crisis hits.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

A growing number of economists say the unrest proves that it is not the exchange rate but years of sweatshop wages and income inequality in China that have distorted global competition and stifled domestic demand. The influential Far Eastern Economic Review headlined its latest issue “The coming crack-up of the China Model”.

Yasheng Huang, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said corruption and a deeply flawed model of economic reform had led to a collapse in personal income growth and a wealth gap that could leave China looking like a Latin American economy.

Richard Duncan, a partner at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore, has argued that the only way to create consumers is to raise wages to a legal minimum of $5 (£3.50) a day across Asia – a “trickle up” theory.

The instability may peak when millions of migrant workers flood back from celebrating the Chinese new year to find they no longer have jobs. That spells political trouble and there are already signs that the government’s $585 billion stimulus package will not be enough to achieve its goal of 8% growth this year...

A legal advocate for migrant workers, Xiao Qingshan, told a tale of violent intimidation by the state in collusion with unscrupulous businessmen.

On January 9, Xiao said, 14 security officers from the local labour bureau broke into his office, confiscated 600 legal case files, 160 law books, his computer, his photocopier, his television set and 100,000 yuan in cash.

“That evening I was ambushed near the office by five strangers who forced a black bag over my head and then threw me into a shallow polluted canal,” he said. His landlord has since given him notice to quit his rented home.

Xiao said he was defying bribery and threats to speak to the foreign media because he wants international businesses to know what is really happening in “the workshop of the world”.

Violent unrest rocks China as crisis hits.