Iran Vows to End ‘Chaos’ as Opponents Shift Tactics (Update1)
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By Henry Meyer
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vowed to “put an end to the chaos” of street protests against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election as the mass demonstrations of last week dissipated in the face of a security crackdown.
The number of protesters fell from the hundreds of thousands as security forces fired water cannons, shot tear gas and used clubs to disperse crowds over the past three days.
“The regime, more likely than not, will quell the protests in the short-term,” said Cliff Kupchan, a senior analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “But its legitimacy is in question and in the medium-term it faces a tough road ahead.”
As demonstrations subside, the opposition, which has some support among the ruling clerical elite, looks set to pursue efforts to oust Ahmadinejad by lobbying within the establishment. The efforts may also include strikes and work stoppages, Kupchan said.
“We’re looking at a change in tactics,” he said. The opposition is backed by many government officials and elements of the middle class and business community.
Ahmadinejad’s position may weaken if Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and other top officials critical of the election move against him. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be struggling to rally enough support to dislodge Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Kupchan said.
‘Saboteurs Must Stop’
Khamenei has firmly backed Ahmadinejad, 52, in the face of the most serious unrest in Iran since the 1979 ouster of the shah.
“The saboteurs must stop their actions” or face “decisive and revolutionary action,” the 125,000-strong Guards, tasked by Iran’s clerical rulers with protecting the Islamic Revolution, said in a statement on state media.
Police used tear gas and fired shots into the air yesterday to break up a rally of hundreds of protesters in central Tehran’s Haft-e-Tir square shortly after the Guards’ warning, the Associated Press said.
Club-wielding members of the Basij volunteer militia, which is linked to the Guards, have played a role in suppressing the protests against Ahmadinejad’s June 12 victory. Opponents say the ballot was rigged. The clerical Guardian Council, the top election body, has refused demands for a new election, and is offering only a partial recount.
Protest Casualties
Police arrested as many as 457 people during clashes in Tehran on June 20, state-run Press TV said. At least 17 people have been killed in demonstrations since the election, according to the government. At least 19 people were killed in protests on June 20, CNN reported, citing hospital staff in Tehran.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement yesterday he is “dismayed by the post-election violence, particularly the use of force against civilians.”
He called for an “immediate stop to the arrests, threats and use of force.”
The Guards, who answer directly to Khamenei, 69, warned the international community, including the U.S., U.K. and Israel, to stop stirring unrest in the country. Iran has accused foreign nations of provoking the protests, a charge denied by Western diplomats.
The U.K.’s Foreign Office said yesterday it will temporarily withdraw family members of its diplomats in Tehran. The ministry isn’t advising other Britons to leave, though it said it is monitoring the situation with “the utmost vigilance” and advised against all except essential travel to the country.
The Italian Foreign Ministry discouraged that nation’s citizens from non-essential travel to Iran, while Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called the police response “totally unacceptable.”
Labeled as Terrorists
The U.S. designated the Guards’ Quds Force a terrorist organization in October 2007, accusing the paramilitary group of supporting attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq. The focus of the Quds Force has been assistance to Islamic militant groups in other countries.
Iran’s governor at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said the protests haven’t affected the country’s oil industry or crude exports. Iran is OPEC’s second-biggest producer.
The Guards’ announcement came as splits within Iran’s ruling elite deepened after police detained Rafsanjani’s relatives for 24 hours and Larijani said that most Iranians questioned Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.
Official Tally
Ahmadinejad won 63 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, according to the official tally.
Iran’s rial weakened 0.4 percent to 9,929.3 to the dollar yesterday, compared with 9,894.6 at the close of trading on June 19. The currency’s rate is managed by Bank Markazi, the central bank.
The Guardian Council acknowledged that the number of ballots cast in 50 districts with a total electorate of about 3 million surpassed the number of eligible voters in those areas, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, 65, who sought to promote more social and political freedoms in the Persian Gulf nation of 73 million during his 1997-2005 administration, warned two days ago of creeping martial law. Khatami backed Mousavi in the election.
The opposition’s problem at the moment is it lacks “a coherent political vision” and its protests are “chaotic, and not organized in any way,” said Ilan Berman, an Iran expert at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington.
Still, the splits within the regime are “quite significant,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 21:22 EDT
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Henry Meyer
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vowed to “put an end to the chaos” of street protests against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election as the mass demonstrations of last week dissipated in the face of a security crackdown.
The number of protesters fell from the hundreds of thousands as security forces fired water cannons, shot tear gas and used clubs to disperse crowds over the past three days.
“The regime, more likely than not, will quell the protests in the short-term,” said Cliff Kupchan, a senior analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “But its legitimacy is in question and in the medium-term it faces a tough road ahead.”
As demonstrations subside, the opposition, which has some support among the ruling clerical elite, looks set to pursue efforts to oust Ahmadinejad by lobbying within the establishment. The efforts may also include strikes and work stoppages, Kupchan said.
“We’re looking at a change in tactics,” he said. The opposition is backed by many government officials and elements of the middle class and business community.
Ahmadinejad’s position may weaken if Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and other top officials critical of the election move against him. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be struggling to rally enough support to dislodge Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Kupchan said.
‘Saboteurs Must Stop’
Khamenei has firmly backed Ahmadinejad, 52, in the face of the most serious unrest in Iran since the 1979 ouster of the shah.
“The saboteurs must stop their actions” or face “decisive and revolutionary action,” the 125,000-strong Guards, tasked by Iran’s clerical rulers with protecting the Islamic Revolution, said in a statement on state media.
Police used tear gas and fired shots into the air yesterday to break up a rally of hundreds of protesters in central Tehran’s Haft-e-Tir square shortly after the Guards’ warning, the Associated Press said.
Club-wielding members of the Basij volunteer militia, which is linked to the Guards, have played a role in suppressing the protests against Ahmadinejad’s June 12 victory. Opponents say the ballot was rigged. The clerical Guardian Council, the top election body, has refused demands for a new election, and is offering only a partial recount.
Protest Casualties
Police arrested as many as 457 people during clashes in Tehran on June 20, state-run Press TV said. At least 17 people have been killed in demonstrations since the election, according to the government. At least 19 people were killed in protests on June 20, CNN reported, citing hospital staff in Tehran.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement yesterday he is “dismayed by the post-election violence, particularly the use of force against civilians.”
He called for an “immediate stop to the arrests, threats and use of force.”
The Guards, who answer directly to Khamenei, 69, warned the international community, including the U.S., U.K. and Israel, to stop stirring unrest in the country. Iran has accused foreign nations of provoking the protests, a charge denied by Western diplomats.
The U.K.’s Foreign Office said yesterday it will temporarily withdraw family members of its diplomats in Tehran. The ministry isn’t advising other Britons to leave, though it said it is monitoring the situation with “the utmost vigilance” and advised against all except essential travel to the country.
The Italian Foreign Ministry discouraged that nation’s citizens from non-essential travel to Iran, while Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called the police response “totally unacceptable.”
Labeled as Terrorists
The U.S. designated the Guards’ Quds Force a terrorist organization in October 2007, accusing the paramilitary group of supporting attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq. The focus of the Quds Force has been assistance to Islamic militant groups in other countries.
Iran’s governor at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said the protests haven’t affected the country’s oil industry or crude exports. Iran is OPEC’s second-biggest producer.
The Guards’ announcement came as splits within Iran’s ruling elite deepened after police detained Rafsanjani’s relatives for 24 hours and Larijani said that most Iranians questioned Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.
Official Tally
Ahmadinejad won 63 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, according to the official tally.
Iran’s rial weakened 0.4 percent to 9,929.3 to the dollar yesterday, compared with 9,894.6 at the close of trading on June 19. The currency’s rate is managed by Bank Markazi, the central bank.
The Guardian Council acknowledged that the number of ballots cast in 50 districts with a total electorate of about 3 million surpassed the number of eligible voters in those areas, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, 65, who sought to promote more social and political freedoms in the Persian Gulf nation of 73 million during his 1997-2005 administration, warned two days ago of creeping martial law. Khatami backed Mousavi in the election.
The opposition’s problem at the moment is it lacks “a coherent political vision” and its protests are “chaotic, and not organized in any way,” said Ilan Berman, an Iran expert at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington.
Still, the splits within the regime are “quite significant,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 21:22 EDT
