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In Japan, a sprightly 94-year-old fights election battle
By Antoni Slodkowski
TOKYO | Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:28am EST
(Reuters) - When Ryokichi Kawashima burst into a Tokyo city office to register as a candidate in Japan's parliamentary election, the woman behind the counter first froze, then stuttered: "Are you serious?"
He was. Kawashima had just taken 3 million yen ($36,400) from the sum saved for his funeral and at 94, and just three hours before the deadline, he became the oldest contender for Sunday's election to the lower house of parliament.
"I just felt that now it was my turn," said Kawashima, proudly pointing at his poster on a board in Hanyu, a sleepy town tucked away among rice fields on the fringes of the sprawling Tokyo metropolis.
"It occurred to me when I watched a TV debate between the major parties," he said, speaking in Japanese. "I just couldn't stand how fragmented and disorganized they have become. They have no grip on reality."
The silver-haired Kawashima is an independent, self-financed and his campaign team is mostly family. He acknowledges he has little chance of winning a constituency that is also being contested by candidates from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
The LDP is heavily tipped to win the most seats in the election.
But Kawashima, born in the year that marked the end of World War One, represents the most-talked-about and fastest growing part of the Japanese society: the elderly.
Japan has aged at an unprecedented pace over the past three decades and at little over 30 million, those aged 65 or older make up a quarter of the country's population, stretching Japan's annual social security bill to 100 trillion yen.
There is a general consensus among political parties that the benefits must be reformed, with more of a focus on an "all-generation" system rather than the current emphasis on the elderly.
But Kawashima, who is using posters, flyers and flags in his campaign, is not making benefits for the elderly an issue.
Instead, he drives around in his white Suzuki pushing a staunchly anti-nuclear and anti-nationalist stance.
Relations with China are a hot campaign topic after long simmering tensions over a disputed island chain flared up in September when Japan bought the rocky islets from a private Japanese owner, triggering anti-Japanese protests.
"I fought in the Sino-Japanese war for seven years and the Chinese helped me survive in the tough post-war years, so I know them well," said Kawashima.
"That whole dispute over the islands and talk that they will invade us is just pure fear-mongering. Their rulers may say such things, but I know they would never do anything like that."
Kawashima, a widower, lives on his own and looks eminently capable of looking after himself. His driving license is valid for another three years, he only needs a stick to help walk, and does not use spectacles.
He stayed on in China after World War Two, working with trading companies. When he returned to Japan he became a salesman for Japanese kamado cookers, travelling around on a Harley-Davidson motorcycle.
Later, he retired to Hanyu where he ran a securities company.
Kawashima's decision to contest the election was taken after a family gathering attended by his 62-year-old daughter and three younger siblings: two brothers aged 85 and 76, and a little sister who has just turned 80.
"All of my friends are dead, so I organized a family gathering and asked them for help," he said in an interview in his living room that had a Buddhist family altar in the corner, while his son-in-law poured coffee and answered calls.
Kawashima then waved to his grandson and his friend who were walking into the backyard in rubber boots to pick up the next stack of election posters.
"Thanks very much and stick them out nicely!" he shouted out to them. ($1 = 82.3900 Japanese yen)
(Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
Japan's LDP, partner on track for two-thirds majority in polls
By Antoni Slodkowski
TOKYO | Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:09am EST
(Reuters) - Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its smaller ally could win a two-thirds majority in a December 16 election for parliament's lower house, a survey showed on Thursday, a result that would help break the policy deadlock plaguing the world's third-biggest economy.
Kyodo news agency's survey of more than 60,000 voters showed that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP could win about 295 seats in the 480-member chamber while its long-time coalition partner, the New Komeito, was likely to win close to 30 seats.
A two-thirds majority would allow the lower house to override the upper chamber, where no party has a majority and which can block legislation. That would help break a stalemate that has plagued successive governments since 2007.
Abe, who quit suddenly in 2007 after a troubled year in office, is promising to press the Bank of Japan to radically ease monetary policy to beat deflation and a strong yen.
He has also promised to stand tough against China over disputed isles in the East China Sea and wants to loosen the limits of Japan's 65-year-old pacifist constitution on the military while recasting what conservatives see as overly apologetic accounts of Japan's wartime past.
The newly launched, right-leaning Japan Restoration Party, founded by popular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and now headed by outspoken nationalist Shintaro Ishihara, looks set to win fewer than 50 seats, the poll showed.
Early predictions had suggested that the LDP might fall short of a majority even with the New Komeito's help, forcing it to turn to the JRP or other parties to form a government.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Democratic Party of Japan, which swept to power in 2009 to end more than 50 years of almost non-stop rule by the LDP, may end up with as few as 60 seats, the Kyodo survey showed.
Kyodo said that about 40 percent of voters were still undecided with just days to go.
Analysts said some voters could decide not to vote for the LDP at the last minute out of fear that they would win by too large a margin, but the general trend was unlikely to shift direction.
"It's a much better than 50-50 chance that the LDP will win a majority on its own," said Chuo University political science professor Steven Reed.
A recent legal change prevents the opposition from taking the budget hostage by refusing to pass a funding bill, so the new government will find it easier to implement spending plans regardless of the size of its majority, and it can pressure the BOJ without enacting legislation.
Other legislation except the budget and treaties, however, must be approved by both houses of parliament. A bill rejected by the upper house can then be enacted if two-thirds of the lower chamber vote in favor.
Kyodo surveyed more than 63,000 voters in about a half of 300 single-member constituencies. The other 180 members come from proportional representation blocks.
Factbox: Parties contesting Japan's December 16 election
Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:17pm EST
Japan holds an election for parliament's lower house on December 16, with opinion polls suggesting that the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will return to power after three years in opposition.
Below are some key facts about Japan's political parties.
(For a graphic charting voter preferences among major parties, click on: link.reuters.com/xyc34t)
2009 lower house election result: 308 out of 480 seats
Formed in a merger of several opposition parties, the DPJ swept to power in 2009 to end more than half a century of almost unbroken Liberal Democratic Party rule. It campaigned on a promise to break up the "iron triangle" between the powerful bureaucracy, business and LDP lawmakers, pay heed to consumers' interests and put elected officials in charge of policy.
Leader Yoshihiko Noda, 55, is already Japan's sixth prime minister since 2006 and the third from the DPJ. Noda, a former finance minister, made raising the sales tax his top goal even though it was not part of the DPJ's 2009 campaign platform.
The Democrats' support slumped over what voters saw as broken promises, a confused response to last year's tsunami and nuclear crisis and Noda's embrace of unpopular causes such as the tax hike and the restart of nuclear reactors.
Until the 2009 election, the party, which has nurtured close ties with business and the bureaucracy, has been in power alone or in coalitions almost non-stop since its founding in 1955.
Its leader, Shinzo Abe, 58, prime minister in 2006-2007, has said he would not yield in a territorial row with China but would try to mend economic ties with Japan's giant neighbor. Abe has also said he would increase defense spending if needed.
Abe has piled pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy further and adopt a 2 percent inflation target and might delay the sales tax rise if deflation persists. The party favors a key role for nuclear power in Japan's energy mix despite a dramatic shift in public opinion in favor of phasing out atomic energy after the Fukushima crisis.
JAPAN RESTORATION PARTY
Established: 2012
Website: j-ishin.jp/(Japanese only)
Popular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, 43, formally launched the right-leaning party in September to woo voters fed up with the two main parties.
His core policies include shrinking the role of the central government, more market competition and cuts in corporate and income taxes.
Last month, the party merged with a few conservative lawmakers led by former nationalist Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, 80, in a bid to build an influential "third force".
The party wants to boost defense spending and maritime surveillance in response to a territorial row with China.
It has flip-flopped on nuclear power after merging with Ishihara's pro-atomic group, and confusion persists.
The party founded by members of a Buddhist sect, the Soka Gakkai, was a junior partner in LDP-led governments for 10 years until the ruling camp's rout in a 2009 lower house election. The LDP is expected to keep the partnership with the New Komeito even if it wins a majority alone because Abe's party falls short of majority in the upper chamber.
Some in the LDP would like eventually to end the alliance given policy differences in some areas, but cutting ties would not be easy since the two parties have cooperated closely in election districts, with the LDP relying on the Komeito's solid vote machine to provide support for many of its own candidates.
The New Komeito focuses on economic policies for the less well off and is more moderate on security issues than the LDP, opposing revision of the pacifist constitution, for example.
Yukiko Kada, governor of the western Japanese prefecture of Shiga and former environmental sociology professor, launched the party just days before the official campaign kicked off to bring together anti-nuclear forces.
Most candidates hail from a short-lived party founded by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, 70, which opposes tax increases, nuclear power and participation in a U.S.-led trade pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Ozawa has been nicknamed the "Destroyer" for his role in creating and then breaking up parties he has formed since he left the LDP in 1993.
Ozawa's group had 48 seats in the lower house before its dissolution, making it the third-largest in the chamber.
Kada aims to shut down all nuclear reactors within 10 years, much sooner than the DPJ's goal to phase out nuclear power by the 2030s, and wants to improve conditions for working women to boost the birth rate and stimulate economic growth.
Formed by former LDP lawmaker Yoshimi Watanabe shortly before the 2009 polls, the party calls for Japan's participation in the TPP, advocates an early exit from nuclear power and would suspend the planned rise in the sales tax. It also favors aggressive monetary stimulus.
The spiky-haired Watanabe has cultivated ties with Hashimoto and lost some members to his group.
