When gambling in a casino, variance is your best friend.
My favorite casino game is Baccarat which I play when I go up to Genting with friends to unwind. The following is something which has always worked well for me.
Assuming that you brought RM 5k up to Genting for some fun. Should you
1) Go to the RM 50 Baccarat table and play 100 hands using the minimum bet of RM 50
2) Go to the RM 50 Baccarat table and bet RM 1,000 on 5 hands.
If you do 1), you run up against the Law of Large Numbers. The house edge works against you and Genting has a much higher certainty of winning the expected amount from you.
If you do 2) however, the variance in the game is immense. The house edge has almost no meaning and the game is almost pure chance.
The worst you can do is
3) Go to the RM 50 Baccarat table and play 1,000 hands using the minimum bet of RM 50
This is the worst as you are effectively betting RM 50,000 with RM 5,000 as your starting capital. The large number of hands played means that that the house edge will cut you deeply. In all likelihood, you will go down the mountain losing all RM 5k. This is regardless of the system/money management technique you are using.
Sadly most small timers, many of my friends included, adopt 3) when they go and play in Genting. They think I am quite flaky as they will see me hanging out at the table, following players with occasional small bets (pass time, earn genting points) and then suddenly drop RM1k when I feel my luck has come. The pit bosses also eye me suspiciously.
If you are a small timer, 2) can get you some nice comps at Genting. This is good for the rest of us who don’t have 1 million Genting points. As an example, Genting is currently having a promotion for Mar 2010. When you buy RM 3k of NN chips, they give you a room for 2 nights. You get buffet breakfast and 1 dinner with show.
If you are using 2), you
a) Buy the RM 3k of NN chips.
b) Enjoy the free room and food.
c) When you are feeling lucky, you bring your RM 3K chips to your favorite table (very important to find a table that feels lucky!).
d) Bet the maximum table limit until your NN chips run out.
Assuming you are betting RM 1K per hand, your approximate odds are:
50% chance to lose RM 3K, of which half is covered by the free room and food you enjoyed
50% chance of breaking even and having a free holiday
25% chance of having a free holiday and winning RM 3K pocket money.
Here the percentages don’t add up to 100% as the outcomes are not statistically independent. Also you can of course win much more than RM 3K. If you run into a streak and win several times consecutively before your NN chips are wiped out, you could go home with RM 9K or RM 10K. The chance of this happening is however low.
If you adopt 2) and go with friends to Genting, you will get a lot of envious comments as you come down the mountain. This is because your friends will probably have adopted 3) and lost most of the money that they brought up. Be prepared therefore to take out money to treat your friends to lunch on your way home !