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House prices rise fast on record lending, confidence

makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published September 11, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>House prices rise fast on record lending, confidence
It rose 2% in August from a year earlier, and double the gain in July, says report

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(BEIJING) China's house prices in the nation's 70 biggest cities rose at the fastest pace in 11 months on record lending and climbing confidence.

House prices increased 2 per cent in August from a year earlier, double the gain in July, according to a National Bureau of Statistics report on its website yesterday. Sales and investment in property development accelerated in the first eight months of the year from the seven months through July, the bureau said.
In fact, just yesterday, China Overseas Land & Investment agreed to pay seven billion yuan (S$1.46 billion) for a plot of land in Shanghai in the country's biggest land transaction this year, underscoring developers' optimism toward China's property market.
China Overseas outbid rivals including Greentown China Holdings Ltd during an auction for the 312,600-square-metre parcel of land, which will be used for residential development.
Shenzhen and Jinhua, cities in eastern coastal provinces, led the gains as a rebound in investment and sales helps to cement a recovery in the world's third-biggest economy. At the same time, surging prices may reinforce concern that asset bubbles may be inflating in the wake of US$1.1 trillion of lending in the first seven months of the year.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>'The continued rise in asset prices reflects the recovery in investor confidence,' said Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in Sydney. 'Policy makers certainly need to keep a close eye on asset prices in the near term and act fast in preventing bubbles, which could derail the economy.'
House sales jumped 69.9 per cent in the first eight months of 2009 from a year earlier to 2.35 trillion yuan, the bureau said. That was up from a 60 per cent gain in the first seven months. By floor area, sales climbed 42.9 per cent, up from 37 per cent.
Investment in property development grew 14.7 per cent during the period, the bureau said yesterday. That was an increase from 11.6 per cent.
'Property investment will grow by 20 per cent this year, and it will continue to be a driving force for China's growth this and next year,' said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp in Beijing.
Central bank adviser Fan Gang said last week that property-investment growth may rebound to about 30 per cent next year.
The government's four trillion yuan stimulus package and the credit boom helped the economy to accelerate in the second quarter from the weakest pace in almost a decade. August economic data is due to be released today.
In Jinhua, house prices rose 6.9 per cent in August from a year earlier. In Shenzhen, the gain was 6.5 per cent. Year-on-year, 15 of 70 cities posted declines. Month-on-month, none fell.
A slide by the Shanghai Composite Index has reduced concerns about a bubble in stocks. The benchmark fell 0.9 per cent as of the trading break, extending its decline from this year's Aug 4 peak to 16 per cent. The measure is still up 60 per cent for the year.
Risks of property bubbles may show up in individual cities, rather than across the nation as a whole, according to Mr Chan.
'Going by recent government policy direction, which aims to promote balanced development, the central and western regions should show the sharpest improvement in investment,' said Mr Chan. 'However, the latest breakdown suggests that the already-saturated eastern region also recorded a sharp increase, which could well be driven by a return of speculative investment.'
China's gross domestic product may increase 9.5 per cent in 2010, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists conducted the week ending on Aug 28. -- Bloomberg, Reuters

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makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published September 11, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Bubbles forming in commodities, stocks, property: Bank of China
It sees potential risk of liquidity going into asset market

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(DALIAN) Bank of China, which led the nation's US$1.1 trillion lending spree in the first half, said ample liquidity has caused 'bubbles' in stocks, commodities and real estate.

'The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,' vice-president Zhu Min said in Dalian yesterday. 'So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.'
China's record credit expansion, which helped the country's economy expand 7.9 per cent in the second quarter, has raised concerns that bank loans have been diverted and used to buy stocks and real estate, fuelling unsustainable gains in equity and property markets.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has gained 61 per cent this year, compared with a 20 per cent increase in the MSCI World Index of 1,659 companies. House prices in China's 70 biggest cities rose at the fastest pace in 11 months on record lending and climbing confidence, according to a National Bureau of Statistics report yesterday.
Bank of China advanced 1 trillion yuan (S$209 billion) of new loans in the first six months, more than any other Chinese lender. It said last month it plans to slow credit growth in the rest of the year and improve loan quality.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>China Construction Bank said last month it will cut new lending by 70 per cent in the second half from six months earlier to avoid a surge in bad debt. Chairman Guo Shuqing said excess cash in the banking system has led to asset bubbles.
An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Centre under the State Council.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission said on Sept 3 it will implement stricter capital requirements for banks. Lenders were also required to raise reserves to 150 per cent of their non-performing loans by the end of this year, up from 134.8 per cent at the end of June.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell into so-called bear market last month on concern slowing lending growth and tighter capital requirements would derail a recovery. The gauge has bounced back this month, rising 9 per cent.
New loans in July were less than a quarter of June's level. August new- lending figures to be released today may show a 10 per cent decline to 320 billion yuan, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Loans surged in the first six months of this year after the central bank scrapped quotas limiting lending in November to support the government's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package and key industries.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice- chairman of National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency, said he sees 'little bubbles' in the nation's new energy sector and is looking into measure to curb excesses at an early stage to allow for healthy development for the industry. - Bloomberg

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