https://news.sina.com.cn/c/zj/2019-03-08/doc-ihrfqzkc2117868.shtml
原标题：棋逢难处需小尖
3月6日，美国商务部公布2018年的贸易数据。
数据，很有意思。
“美国去年12月贸易逆差598亿美元。。。。。。2018年美国贸易逆差扩大至6210亿美元，创2008年以来最高。货物贸易逆差总额达8913亿美元，刷新美国建国以来的历史纪录。”
打了一年贸易战，打出美国近250年来最大的货物贸易逆差纪录。
这就很尴尬了。。。
在中美谈判迈进关键阶段的时候，这个数据能让人看清一些事。
同时，谈判到了这个阶段，有些问题也该开始想想了。
我们来试着分析一下。
首先，事实告诉我们，美国用贸易战的方式追求贸易平衡，不会有任何成果。
去年美国刚刚挑起贸易战时，有很多人一针见血地指出其中的问题。
美国的贸易失衡是自身经济结构问题，跟美国在全球产业链里的位置，美元的强势地位及其国内储蓄率都有密切关系，根本不可能通过贸易战的方式来解决。
很可惜，不知道是听不见，还是不愿意听，一年里美国不停地拿贸易平衡说事儿，不断试图提升关税的贸易战方式来解决贸易平衡问题。
结果呢？
事实胜于雄辩。
其次，贸易数据可能提升美国达成协议的意愿，但谈判也许会变得更加艰难。
第七轮中美经贸高级别磋商是2月24日结束的。
到现在10多天了，进展怎么样呢？
可以肯定的是，谈判没停。就像商务部长在“部长通道”里说的那样：
现在工作团队还在继续磋商，还有许多事要做，更加需要中美双方相向而行，共同努力。
这从外媒的报道中也能得到印证。
路透社6日报道，美国农业部负责贸易和外国农业事务的副部长特德·麦金尼（Ted McKinney）当天表示，美中经贸磋商正通过视频会议顺利进行。“目前通过数字视频会议正在进行大量讨论，这也是一个非常好的和富有成效的事情，”麦金尼说。
当然，谈判想必也更艰难。
就像我们在前几篇文章里提到过的观点：
中美在跨进谈判关键阶段后，虽然双方磋商节奏加快，氛围也不错，但是谈判难度反而提升了。
现在美国的贸易数据出来了，一方面这有可能提升美国达成协议的意愿，但另一方面，美方在具体磋商的要价上反而有可能提升。
尤其不能排除的是，美国很有可能通过制造“逼迫中国妥协”的舆论，来增加美国内的获得感，从而创造美国内部有利于达成协议的氛围。
当然，这种做法的风险在于，有可能推升双方的对立情绪，把谈判推向不可知的方向。
所以，这个时候，中美双方更需要通过细节的试探和交换，乃至善意的持续释放，小心翼翼地把谈判推向最后目标。
好比下围棋的一句老话：
棋逢难处需小尖
“小尖”是围棋里稳重坚实的下法，所谓“小尖无恶手”。
越是复杂困难的局面，越有效果。
第三，现在有必要冷静地想清楚，我们为什么要跟美国人谈？
记得去年贸易战刚开始的时候，大家引用最多的是毛泽东同志的一句话。
“以斗争求团结则团结存，以退让求团结则团结亡”。
——《目前抗日统一战线中的策略问题》
以斗争求团结，则团结存。
这句话非常经典。
但是对这句话，大家往往记住了斗争，没注意到团结。
尤其想不通的是，既然跟美国人打贸易战，为什么还要求团结？
我觉得，这是因为我们坚持的道理是“贸易战没有赢家”，“合则两利，斗则俱伤”。
我们的道理，一直苦口婆心地在说，可是美国大概没有切身感受，开始的时候是不听的。国内有些人，也不以为然。
结果呢？
现在贸易战打了一年，中美从谈判桌回到了谈判桌。
原因也很简单，现实最有说服力，事实胜于雄辩。
这一年看着回到原点，其实经历了一段艰难的用斗争讲道理，用事实说服美国人的过程。
如果中美能达成贸易协议，那么就像之前文章讨论过的，我们的利益是尽最大可能争取战略机遇期。
争取来的时间和发展空间，是为了让我们自己变得更强大。
如果把精力、资源和时间空耗在对抗上，而浪费了做强做大自己的机遇，这买卖是不划算的！
最后讲个笑话，供大家参考。
养的一条鱼死了，我很伤心。
不想土葬，我想火葬。
把鱼灰洒回海洋，让它回到母亲怀抱。
谁知道，这玩意越烤越香！
然后，我就开了瓶啤酒。。。。。。
有时候，走着走着，就忘记了初心。
不要忘了，我们为什么而斗争。
勿忘初心！
继续前进！（文中网图，侵删）
来源：令狐猫/微信公号“陶然笔记”
点击进入专题：
刘鹤赴美进行第七轮高级别经贸磋商
责任编辑：余鹏飞
Original title: Chess is difficult to meet
On March 6, the US Department of Commerce announced trade data for 2018.
The data is very interesting.
"The US trade deficit in December last year was 59.8 billion US dollars. . . . The US trade deficit expanded to 621 billion US dollars in 2018, the highest since 2008. The total trade deficit of goods reached 891.3 billion US dollars, setting a new record since the founding of the United States. ”
After a year of trade wars, the largest trade deficit in the United States in the past 250 years was recorded.
This is very embarrassing. . .
This data can make people see something when the Sino-US negotiations are at a critical stage.
At the same time, the negotiations reached this stage, and some questions should start to think about it.
Let's try to analyze it.
First of all, the facts tell us that the United States will not have any results in pursuing a trade balance by means of trade warfare.
When the United States just provoked a trade war last year, many people pointed out the problems in a straightforward manner.
The trade imbalance in the United States is a problem of its own economic structure. It is closely related to the position of the United States in the global industrial chain, the strong position of the US dollar and its domestic savings rate. It is impossible to solve it through the trade war.
It is a pity that I don’t know whether I can’t hear it or I’m not willing to listen. In the course of the year, the United States keeps talking about trade balance and constantly tries to improve the trade warfare of tariffs to solve the trade balance problem.
The results of it?
Facts speak louder than words.
Second, trade data may increase the willingness of the United States to reach an agreement, but negotiations may become more difficult.
The seventh round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations ended on February 24.
More than 10 days have passed, how is the progress?
To be sure, the negotiations have not stopped. As the Minister of Commerce said in the “Ministerial Channel”:
Now the working team is still negotiating, there are still many things to do, and it is even more necessary for China and the United States to work together and work together.
This can also be confirmed from the reports of foreign media.
Reuters reported on the 6th that Ted McKinney, the US Deputy Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said on the same day that the US-China economic and trade consultation was going through a video conference. “There is a lot of discussion going on through digital video conferencing, which is also a very good and productive thing,” McKinney said.
Of course, the negotiations must be more difficult.
As we mentioned in the previous articles:
After the key stages of the negotiations, China and the United States, although the pace of consultation between the two sides accelerated, the atmosphere is not bad, but the difficulty of negotiations has increased.
Now that the US trade data has come out, on the one hand it is likely to increase the willingness of the United States to reach an agreement, but on the other hand, the US may actually increase the price of specific consultations.
In particular, it is impossible to rule out that the United States is likely to increase the sense of gain in the United States by creating a paradox that “forces China’s compromise”, thereby creating an atmosphere within the United States that is conducive to an agreement.
Of course, the risk of this approach is that it is possible to push up the opposition between the two sides and push the negotiations in an unknowable direction.
Therefore, at this time, both China and the United States need to pass the temptation and exchange of details, and even the sustained release of goodwill, and carefully push the negotiations to the final goal.
Like an old saying of Go:
Chess is difficult to meet
"Little tip" is a solid and solid method in Go, the so-called "small tip without evil hands."
The more complicated and difficult the situation, the more effective it is.
Third, it is necessary to calmly think about it now. Why do we talk to Americans?
I remember that at the beginning of the trade war last year, the most cited quote was Comrade Mao Zedong’s words.
"To unite with struggle, we will unite, and unite and die with retreat and seek unity."
- "Strategic Issues in the Current Anti-Japanese United Front"
Struggle for unity in struggle, then unite.
This sentence is very classic.
But for this sentence, everyone often remembers the struggle and does not pay attention to unity.
What I can't figure out is that since I have a trade war with Americans, why do I still want unity?
I think this is because we insist that the "trade war has no winners", "the two are good, the fight is hurt."
Our reason has been bitterly said, but the United States probably has no personal experience, and did not listen at the beginning. Some people in China do not agree.
The results of it?
Now that the trade war has been playing for a year, China and the United States have returned to the negotiating table from the negotiating table.
The reason is also very simple, the reality is the most convincing, and the facts speak louder than words.
Looking back to the original point this year, I actually experienced a difficult process of using the struggle to reason and use the facts to convince the Americans.
If China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, then as discussed in the previous article, our interest is to strive for the strategic opportunity period as much as possible.
The time and space for development is to make ourselves stronger.
If you spend energy, resources and time on confrontation and waste the opportunity to become bigger and stronger, this sale is not cost-effective!
Finally, tell a joke for your reference.
A fish is dead, I am very sad.
I don't want to be buried, I want to cremate.
Sprinkle the fish ash back into the ocean and let it back to the mother's arms.
Who knows, the more roasted this stuff is!
Then I opened a bottle of beer. . . . . .
Sometimes, walking and walking, I forgot my initial heart.
Don't forget, why do we fight.
Do not forget the early heart!
Keep going! (text in the text, invasion)
Source: Linghu Cat / WeChat Gong "Tao Ran Notes"
Click to enter the topic:
Liu He went to the United States for the seventh round of high-level economic and trade consultations
Editor in charge: Yu Pengfei
原标题：棋逢难处需小尖
3月6日，美国商务部公布2018年的贸易数据。
数据，很有意思。
“美国去年12月贸易逆差598亿美元。。。。。。2018年美国贸易逆差扩大至6210亿美元，创2008年以来最高。货物贸易逆差总额达8913亿美元，刷新美国建国以来的历史纪录。”
打了一年贸易战，打出美国近250年来最大的货物贸易逆差纪录。
这就很尴尬了。。。
在中美谈判迈进关键阶段的时候，这个数据能让人看清一些事。
同时，谈判到了这个阶段，有些问题也该开始想想了。
我们来试着分析一下。
首先，事实告诉我们，美国用贸易战的方式追求贸易平衡，不会有任何成果。
去年美国刚刚挑起贸易战时，有很多人一针见血地指出其中的问题。
美国的贸易失衡是自身经济结构问题，跟美国在全球产业链里的位置，美元的强势地位及其国内储蓄率都有密切关系，根本不可能通过贸易战的方式来解决。
很可惜，不知道是听不见，还是不愿意听，一年里美国不停地拿贸易平衡说事儿，不断试图提升关税的贸易战方式来解决贸易平衡问题。
结果呢？
事实胜于雄辩。
其次，贸易数据可能提升美国达成协议的意愿，但谈判也许会变得更加艰难。
第七轮中美经贸高级别磋商是2月24日结束的。
到现在10多天了，进展怎么样呢？
可以肯定的是，谈判没停。就像商务部长在“部长通道”里说的那样：
现在工作团队还在继续磋商，还有许多事要做，更加需要中美双方相向而行，共同努力。
这从外媒的报道中也能得到印证。
路透社6日报道，美国农业部负责贸易和外国农业事务的副部长特德·麦金尼（Ted McKinney）当天表示，美中经贸磋商正通过视频会议顺利进行。“目前通过数字视频会议正在进行大量讨论，这也是一个非常好的和富有成效的事情，”麦金尼说。
当然，谈判想必也更艰难。
就像我们在前几篇文章里提到过的观点：
中美在跨进谈判关键阶段后，虽然双方磋商节奏加快，氛围也不错，但是谈判难度反而提升了。
现在美国的贸易数据出来了，一方面这有可能提升美国达成协议的意愿，但另一方面，美方在具体磋商的要价上反而有可能提升。
尤其不能排除的是，美国很有可能通过制造“逼迫中国妥协”的舆论，来增加美国内的获得感，从而创造美国内部有利于达成协议的氛围。
当然，这种做法的风险在于，有可能推升双方的对立情绪，把谈判推向不可知的方向。
所以，这个时候，中美双方更需要通过细节的试探和交换，乃至善意的持续释放，小心翼翼地把谈判推向最后目标。
好比下围棋的一句老话：
棋逢难处需小尖
“小尖”是围棋里稳重坚实的下法，所谓“小尖无恶手”。
越是复杂困难的局面，越有效果。
第三，现在有必要冷静地想清楚，我们为什么要跟美国人谈？
记得去年贸易战刚开始的时候，大家引用最多的是毛泽东同志的一句话。
“以斗争求团结则团结存，以退让求团结则团结亡”。
——《目前抗日统一战线中的策略问题》
以斗争求团结，则团结存。
这句话非常经典。
但是对这句话，大家往往记住了斗争，没注意到团结。
尤其想不通的是，既然跟美国人打贸易战，为什么还要求团结？
我觉得，这是因为我们坚持的道理是“贸易战没有赢家”，“合则两利，斗则俱伤”。
我们的道理，一直苦口婆心地在说，可是美国大概没有切身感受，开始的时候是不听的。国内有些人，也不以为然。
结果呢？
现在贸易战打了一年，中美从谈判桌回到了谈判桌。
原因也很简单，现实最有说服力，事实胜于雄辩。
这一年看着回到原点，其实经历了一段艰难的用斗争讲道理，用事实说服美国人的过程。
如果中美能达成贸易协议，那么就像之前文章讨论过的，我们的利益是尽最大可能争取战略机遇期。
争取来的时间和发展空间，是为了让我们自己变得更强大。
如果把精力、资源和时间空耗在对抗上，而浪费了做强做大自己的机遇，这买卖是不划算的！
最后讲个笑话，供大家参考。
养的一条鱼死了，我很伤心。
不想土葬，我想火葬。
把鱼灰洒回海洋，让它回到母亲怀抱。
谁知道，这玩意越烤越香！
然后，我就开了瓶啤酒。。。。。。
有时候，走着走着，就忘记了初心。
不要忘了，我们为什么而斗争。
勿忘初心！
继续前进！（文中网图，侵删）
来源：令狐猫/微信公号“陶然笔记”
点击进入专题：
刘鹤赴美进行第七轮高级别经贸磋商
责任编辑：余鹏飞
Original title: Chess is difficult to meet
On March 6, the US Department of Commerce announced trade data for 2018.
The data is very interesting.
"The US trade deficit in December last year was 59.8 billion US dollars. . . . The US trade deficit expanded to 621 billion US dollars in 2018, the highest since 2008. The total trade deficit of goods reached 891.3 billion US dollars, setting a new record since the founding of the United States. ”
After a year of trade wars, the largest trade deficit in the United States in the past 250 years was recorded.
This is very embarrassing. . .
This data can make people see something when the Sino-US negotiations are at a critical stage.
At the same time, the negotiations reached this stage, and some questions should start to think about it.
Let's try to analyze it.
First of all, the facts tell us that the United States will not have any results in pursuing a trade balance by means of trade warfare.
When the United States just provoked a trade war last year, many people pointed out the problems in a straightforward manner.
The trade imbalance in the United States is a problem of its own economic structure. It is closely related to the position of the United States in the global industrial chain, the strong position of the US dollar and its domestic savings rate. It is impossible to solve it through the trade war.
It is a pity that I don’t know whether I can’t hear it or I’m not willing to listen. In the course of the year, the United States keeps talking about trade balance and constantly tries to improve the trade warfare of tariffs to solve the trade balance problem.
The results of it?
Facts speak louder than words.
Second, trade data may increase the willingness of the United States to reach an agreement, but negotiations may become more difficult.
The seventh round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations ended on February 24.
More than 10 days have passed, how is the progress?
To be sure, the negotiations have not stopped. As the Minister of Commerce said in the “Ministerial Channel”:
Now the working team is still negotiating, there are still many things to do, and it is even more necessary for China and the United States to work together and work together.
This can also be confirmed from the reports of foreign media.
Reuters reported on the 6th that Ted McKinney, the US Deputy Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said on the same day that the US-China economic and trade consultation was going through a video conference. “There is a lot of discussion going on through digital video conferencing, which is also a very good and productive thing,” McKinney said.
Of course, the negotiations must be more difficult.
As we mentioned in the previous articles:
After the key stages of the negotiations, China and the United States, although the pace of consultation between the two sides accelerated, the atmosphere is not bad, but the difficulty of negotiations has increased.
Now that the US trade data has come out, on the one hand it is likely to increase the willingness of the United States to reach an agreement, but on the other hand, the US may actually increase the price of specific consultations.
In particular, it is impossible to rule out that the United States is likely to increase the sense of gain in the United States by creating a paradox that “forces China’s compromise”, thereby creating an atmosphere within the United States that is conducive to an agreement.
Of course, the risk of this approach is that it is possible to push up the opposition between the two sides and push the negotiations in an unknowable direction.
Therefore, at this time, both China and the United States need to pass the temptation and exchange of details, and even the sustained release of goodwill, and carefully push the negotiations to the final goal.
Like an old saying of Go:
Chess is difficult to meet
"Little tip" is a solid and solid method in Go, the so-called "small tip without evil hands."
The more complicated and difficult the situation, the more effective it is.
Third, it is necessary to calmly think about it now. Why do we talk to Americans?
I remember that at the beginning of the trade war last year, the most cited quote was Comrade Mao Zedong’s words.
"To unite with struggle, we will unite, and unite and die with retreat and seek unity."
- "Strategic Issues in the Current Anti-Japanese United Front"
Struggle for unity in struggle, then unite.
This sentence is very classic.
But for this sentence, everyone often remembers the struggle and does not pay attention to unity.
What I can't figure out is that since I have a trade war with Americans, why do I still want unity?
I think this is because we insist that the "trade war has no winners", "the two are good, the fight is hurt."
Our reason has been bitterly said, but the United States probably has no personal experience, and did not listen at the beginning. Some people in China do not agree.
The results of it?
Now that the trade war has been playing for a year, China and the United States have returned to the negotiating table from the negotiating table.
The reason is also very simple, the reality is the most convincing, and the facts speak louder than words.
Looking back to the original point this year, I actually experienced a difficult process of using the struggle to reason and use the facts to convince the Americans.
If China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, then as discussed in the previous article, our interest is to strive for the strategic opportunity period as much as possible.
The time and space for development is to make ourselves stronger.
If you spend energy, resources and time on confrontation and waste the opportunity to become bigger and stronger, this sale is not cost-effective!
Finally, tell a joke for your reference.
A fish is dead, I am very sad.
I don't want to be buried, I want to cremate.
Sprinkle the fish ash back into the ocean and let it back to the mother's arms.
Who knows, the more roasted this stuff is!
Then I opened a bottle of beer. . . . . .
Sometimes, walking and walking, I forgot my initial heart.
Don't forget, why do we fight.
Do not forget the early heart!
Keep going! (text in the text, invasion)
Source: Linghu Cat / WeChat Gong "Tao Ran Notes"
Click to enter the topic:
Liu He went to the United States for the seventh round of high-level economic and trade consultations
Editor in charge: Yu Pengfei
