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k1976

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https://www.google.com/amp/story/s/...s-raise-alarm-about-waning-economic-honeymoon



Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Diplomacy

Germany’s China shock: as Scholz leaves Beijing, others raise alarm about waning economic honeymoon​

  • German industry debates how to proceed after finding cracks in a once robust and mutually beneficial relationship
  • ‘China is moving into the kind of space that Germany used to occupy quite prominently in the world economy, especially if you look at export numbers’: economist
 

k1976

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For more than 20 years, Webasto has been at the heart of one of the great economic marriages of modern times.


The German company from the industrial suburbs of Munich set up its first plant in Shanghai in 2001, the year China joined the World Trade Organization.


First making sunroofs, and then heating, air-conditioning and battery systems for local and international carmakers that were rushing to build factories of their own in the world’s new workshop, the company grew exponentially to become a global leader in its niche.


While industrial America complained about being undercut by cheaper competition from China, Webasto became one of Germany’s many “hidden champions” that grew rich off China’s rise.
 

k1976

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German exports boomed as newly minted Chinese consumers bought their first cars, and factories around the manufacturing heartland needed machine tools and kit. German joint ventures helped school Chinese partners and propel an economic miracle that saw China become the world’s second-largest economy, and that cushioned Germany from successive economic crises.


But over the past couple of years, cracks have started to show. Amid declining demand and stiffer competition, Webasto announced it would cut 1,600 jobs from its global workforce.
 

k1976

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“We notice that the competition in the automotive supply industry in the country is getting tougher. There are many new market participants, and also – especially Chinese – car manufacturers who have suppliers within their own company structure,” Webasto chairman Holger Engelmann said.

After many years of growth, we have recently experienced a decline in demand for our products. As a result, we recorded a stagnation in sales 2020 and a decline [in] 2023 in comparison to the previous year for the first time.”


A growing number of economists believe the prolonged Sino-German honeymoon period is over. Tales like Webasto’s struggle with Chinese competition will become the rule rather than the exception in the relationship as the complementary nature that enriched both sides over the past quarter of a century wanes.
 

k1976

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China this week amid an intensifying debate about how Berlin should engage with Beijing in the future.

On one side, some big companies are doubling down on their investments in China, typified by Volkswagen’s announcement last week it would spend US$2.68 billion expanding production and research facilities in Hefei in Anhui province in southeastern China.
 

k1976

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From this side, any disruption to Sino-German trade is troublesome. Senior German automotive lobbyist Andreas Rade accused the European Union investigation into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies of having “no consensus” among member states, and being “not a good signal”.


But many businesses on the front lines disagree. As China has moved up the value chain and its manufacturers have become more sophisticated, suppliers and customers of German industry have become fierce competitors. The German automotive industry’s sluggish embrace of new electric vehicles, along with China’s stunning rise in this sector, presents a whole new raft of challenges.
 
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