GRC election record

[Perspective]

Tampines GRC election record. Few things interesting.

1988 - NSP 39%
1991 - NSP 41%
1997 - NSP chopped but team disqualified
2001 - NSP (under SDA) 27%
2006 - NSP (under SDA) 32%
2011 - NSP 43%

Will put up Aljunied next.

 

[Perspective]

Aljunied GRC:

1988 - SDP 44%
1991 - Walkover
1997 - SDP 33%
2001 - Walkover as WP disqualified
2006 - WP 44%
2011 - WP 55%

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Am not a numbers guy. But what I do see is that NSP had a chance to take down Tampines in the same way the WP took down Aljunied, but they did not do so.

Subjectively, I feel that Aljunied, compared to Tampines, has been helmed by more capable ministers with better PR and ground support. Why then did WP succeed where NSP failed?

(a) Unlike WP, NSP did not build itself in the grassroots in the '90s up till 2006. LTK used the long years to establish himself firmly. This is quiet work, not reported by the press, so the internet heroes cannot see this. When 2011 was ripe, he had the chance to move out and claim an GRC victory.

(b) The opposition fell as a whole in the 1990s. That much is clear. In 2001, WP was no different from the rest -- weak, performed poorly at the polls, etc. So why did WP move ahead of the pack? I think its because while the others were mired in internal squabbles, WP took the time to quietly hone its political instincts and stay out of the "fray". The distance put between WP and the rest, which some mistake as arrogance or isolationist, worked to its advantage. When others are strangling each other, do not offer yourself as rope.

(c) WP developed better branding even compared to other parties who used the internet more aggressively. This shows that grassroots work is more impt than internet engagement.

 

[Fook Seng]

WP developed better branding even compared to other parties who used the internet more aggressively. This shows that grassroots work is more impt than internet engagement.

Generally I agree with you regarding grassroots work but new media is still important to connect with the newer generation. But I agree with Ah Ram on another thread, the potential candidates should not be doing it themselves but should do it through supporters. Otherwise any mistake or misquote can be amplified put of proportion.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Generally I agree with you regarding grassroots work but new media is still important to connect with the newer generation. But I agree with Ah Ram on another thread, the potential candidates should not be doing it themselves but should do it through supporters. Otherwise any mistake or misquote can be amplified put of proportion.

Ramseth,

Gerald Giam and YSL have been operating blogs in their own name, and that is fine. They have done OK. Gerald even has a book now, based on his experiences and insights into policy making.

i believe what the others want is more frequent internet updates, responses, and use of various new media tools. WP is not very adaptable, but they are picking up slowly.There are many ways to reach out, and cyberspace is only one way. It is far more impt to actually get MSM on your side. I believe potential candidates should focus on traditional media outlets rather than get bogged down by astro-turfting in cyberspace.

 

[zhihau]

bro,

with the boundaries changing like our weather, such analysis cuts lil' ice.

 

[gobuster]

WP is able to grow since 2001 because of new blood like SL, YSL, GMS, CTL and so on and has the blessing of the good name of JBJ as foundation. NSP has no bland name and SDP bland name was trashed under CSJ.

(b) The opposition fell as a whole in the 1990s. That much is clear. In 2001, WP was no different from the rest -- weak, performed poorly at the polls, etc. So why did WP move ahead of the pack? I think its because while the others were mired in internal squabbles, WP took the time to quietly hone its political instincts and stay out of the "fray". The distance put between WP and the rest, which some mistake as arrogance or isolationist, worked to its advantage. When others are strangling each other, do not offer yourself as rope.

(c) WP developed better branding even compared to other parties who used the internet more aggressively. This shows that grassroots work is more impt than internet engagement.

 

[kingrant]

There's one other factor I guess. It's when LTK started selling the message that he needed to get out of HG to fight in a GRC to grow the Opposition then or never, that voters sat up and heeded the call and helped him realised not only his aspirations but that of many others who were tired of PAP dominance and arrogance.

(a) Unlike WP, NSP did not build itself in the grassroots in the '90s up till 2006. LTK used the long years to establish himself firmly. This is quiet work, not reported by the press, so the internet heroes cannot see this. When 2011 was ripe, he had the chance to move out and claim an GRC victory.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

WP is able to grow since 2001 because of new blood like SL, YSL, GMS, CTL and so on and has the blessing of the good name of JBJ as foundation. NSP has no bland name and SDP bland name was trashed under CSJ.

NSP has never fought to win. They have helped to create multi-cornered fights and diverted resources to playing the game rather than winning the game. GMS is not stupid. He can't control the situation even as Sec Gen, thats why he resigned. He over-estimated his ability to steer NSP.

 

[Perspective]

Am not a numbers guy. But what I do see is that NSP had a chance to take down Tampines in the same way the WP took down Aljunied, but they did not do so.

Subjectively, I feel that Aljunied, compared to Tampines, has been helmed by more capable ministers with better PR and ground support. Why then did WP succeed where NSP failed?

(a) Unlike WP, NSP did not build itself in the grassroots in the '90s up till 2006. LTK used the long years to establish himself firmly. This is quiet work, not reported by the press, so the internet heroes cannot see this. When 2011 was ripe, he had the chance to move out and claim an GRC victory.

(b) The opposition fell as a whole in the 1990s. That much is clear. In 2001, WP was no different from the rest -- weak, performed poorly at the polls, etc. So why did WP move ahead of the pack? I think its because while the others were mired in internal squabbles, WP took the time to quietly hone its political instincts and stay out of the "fray". The distance put between WP and the rest, which some mistake as arrogance or isolationist, worked to its advantage. When others are strangling each other, do not offer yourself as rope.

(c) WP developed better branding even compared to other parties who used the internet more aggressively. This shows that grassroots work is more impt than internet engagement.

Your point (b) was the same strategy PAP used to differentiate itself from the Labours, Liberals and Progressives. Even Barisan was not spared.

On (c), a better branding is not an all-given. SDP had a brand name in 1991, surpassing WP which was supposed to be the one since it was around longer. In fact, SDP brand name was strong than WP now. However, the same brand name 10-15 years later (in 2001-2006) saw every constituency flop flat. You score better as an unknown than anything under SDP. How did this happen?

In 2001, WP had 2 candidates, 1 ugly disqualification and one seat. SDA had 14 candidates and a good campaign, got 2 seats (1 NCMP). Did SDA have a head start in building a brand name? Yes. But 10 years later, SDA has no seat and 20% of votes less than WP. WP won more seats (8) than the total number of SDA candidates (7). In the only 3-corner-fight (Punggol), an opposition party with 2 seats 10 years ago lost its deposit against the opposition party with 1 seat 10 years ago.

So brand name is not a given. It is established that a brand takes about 10 years to build, for SDP (1980 to 1991) it's the same time LTK took to build WP (2001 to 2011).

One interesting about the above, no other ward other than Tampines has been taken by the same party for 6 elections.

 

[Perspective]

NSP has never fought to win. They have helped to create multi-cornered fights and diverted resources to playing the game rather than winning the game. GMS is not stupid. He can't control the situation even as Sec Gen, thats why he resigned. He over-estimated his ability to steer NSP.

There is a conspiracy theory that a new breed of game hunters wanted to do the same under a new ticket - RP. But headed to NSP anyway and just nice succeed the old game hunters there. I don't know the motive and purpose if it is true though.