美退役军官：台海若开战 美国将被"胖揍一顿"
Retired U.S. officers: if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will be "beaten up"
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2020-08-17/doc-iivhvpwy1423379.shtml
09:06, August 17, 2020
Zero
(translated by Guanqun from the national interest website of the United States)
[text / Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general / observer network by Guanqun]
For a long time, the U.S. military has been debating whether the U.S. should assist in defending Taiwan when China attacks Taiwan, but less consideration is whether the US military can successfully assist in defending Taiwan. An irrational analysis of the military strength of China and the United States will greatly increase the probability that the US military will be defeated in the Taiwan Strait war. What's worse, even if the U.S. military wins at the tactical level, it may suffer catastrophic failure at the strategic level. But this is not to say that there is no other strategy that can effectively protect the interests of the United States at a low cost.
Few leaders of the U.S. organizational faction are willing to take the time to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the strength of the U.S. military and the Chinese people's Liberation Army. On the contrary, in order to cater to the political trend, policy makers usually make seemingly cost-free remarks without considering the background. For a long time, policy makers have been debating whether to abandon the decades old U.S. Asian Policy - "strategic ambiguity", and bluntly announce that the United States will engage in military intervention to help defend Taiwan when it is attacked.
Reflecting the thinking of many U.S. policy makers, Joseph Bosco, a former Pentagon official, urged Congress this summer to pass the Taiwan Defense Act, because "this law will leave the United States one step short of a public commitment to help defend Taiwan.".
If the bill is signed into law by the president, it will force the U.S. government to "delay, moderate and ultimately defeat the attempt of the people's Republic of China (to occupy Taiwan by force)". Now it's time to pause and think about what these assertive words actually mean to US forces on the ground, at sea and in the air in the Asia Pacific region. We don't have to think too long to realize that this is not good for America.
The establishment of bills or treaties by the United States should undoubtedly make the United States more secure and maintain (or promote) its ability to maintain its prosperity and strength. If the United States has to bear all the risks and costs while the other side gets most of the benefits, it is obviously not in the interests of the United States to bind itself to another country or political entity. The security guarantee provided by the United States to Taiwan can not meet the first condition, but it fully meets the second condition.
The recent war game deduction conducted by the Pentagon and Rand Corporation shows that if there is a military conflict between China and the United States, especially on the Taiwan issue, the result is likely to be the defeat of the United States. In simulating the Sino US war, David ochmanek, an analyst at Rand, bluntly said that the US had been "beaten up".
Ohmannek explained that if China made every effort to capture Taiwan, it could "achieve its goal in a limited time (in days to weeks)". The reason, he said, is that China "will not only attack air bases in the region. They will also attack aircraft carriers that are sailing at sea They're going to attack our sensors in space. They're going to attack most of our data links via satellite. "
Perhaps this war game underestimates the ability of the United States to counterattack, or overestimates China's combat capability. Maybe the United States can finally repel China's attack on Taiwan. However, such a "victory" will cost the United States a staggering high price.
In addition to the cost of life, sinking of ships and downfall of aircraft, the United States must also be enviable in stationing large-scale military forces in Taiwan and spreading bases throughout the Asia Pacific region to defend Taiwan and prevent China from trying to capture Taiwan again. The United States will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to maintain this defensive posture permanently and be alert to new attacks.
In addition, geographical environment is also a problem. The distance between Taiwan and Chinese mainland is similar to that of Cuba and Florida, while Taiwan is about six thousand nautical miles from the mainland of the United States. The new crown epidemic has led to a decline in the U.S. economy, which has stretched the U.S. defense budget. If the United States goes to war with China again, the surge in defense spending will directly paralyze the United States. In short, it would be a disaster for the United States to lose the war with China, and to "win" the war for Taiwan would bankrupt the United States. Clearly, Washington needs to find a better way to confront Beijing. Fortunately, there are better options.
The best way for the United States to help Taiwan and deter China from using force is to encourage its friends in the Asia Pacific region (not just Taiwan) to speed up their own defense capacity building. China's famous move to strengthen its defense against the United States is that it has established a regional denial / anti intervention combat system, which will make the United States pay a heavy price when attacking China. Taiwan's own regional anti war system should be established.
China's regional anti intervention combat system in the eyes of us think tanks
Taipei should strengthen its defense capability by establishing its own regional denial / anti intervention combat system. This will make China pay a heavy price when unifying Taiwan by force, and will no longer be sure that it will win the final victory, so that the CPC leaders in Beijing will not risk the risk of defeat. But we have to admit, even so
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2020-08-17/doc-iivhvpwy1423379.shtml
2020年08月17日 09:06 观察者网
0
（观察者网由冠群译自美国“国家利益”网站）
[文/丹尼尔·戴维斯 美国陆军退役中校 译/观察者网 由冠群]
长期以来美军一直在辩论，在中国进攻台湾时，美军是否应协防台湾，但考虑较少的却是美军能否成功协防台湾。对中美两国军事实力不理智的分析，将使美军在台海之战中被击败的几率大大增加。更糟糕的是，即使美军在战术层面获得胜利，也可能在战略层面遭受灾难性失败。但这并不是说，没有其他策略可以在低成本的情况下有效维护美国利益。
很少有美国建制派领导人肯花时间对美军和中国人民解放军的实力进行全面分析。相反，决策者为了迎合政治风向，通常会在忽略背景的前提下发表看似毫无成本的言论。长期以来，政策制定者一直在争论是否要抛弃已持续数十年的美国亚洲政策——“战略模糊”，直言不讳地宣布美国将在台湾受到攻击时进行军事介入协防台湾。
反映很多美国政策制定者这一想法的事件是，五角大楼前官员约瑟夫•博斯科（Joseph Bosco）在今年夏天敦促国会通过《台湾防卫法》，因为“这部法律将使美国距离公开承诺协防台湾仅剩一步之遥”。
如果该法案被总统签署为法律，那将迫使美国政府“迟滞、缓和并最终击败中华人民共和国（使用武力攻占台湾）的企图”。现在有必要停下来考虑一下这些自信满满的话对美军亚太地面力量、海上水下力量和空中力量实际意味着什么。无须思考太长时间，我们就会意识到这样做对美国并没有好处。
美国设立法案或订立条约都无疑应使美国变的更加安全，维护（或促进）美国保持繁荣富强的能力。如果美国必须承担所有风险和成本，而另一方则获得大部分利益，那么将自己与另一个国家或政治实体捆绑在一起显然不符合美国的利益。美国向台湾提供安全保证不能满足第一个条件，但却完全符合第二个条件。
五角大楼和兰德公司最近进行的兵棋推演表明，如果中美之间爆发军事冲突，特别是就台湾问题发生冲突，其结果很可能是美国战败。在模拟中美之战时，兰德公司分析师大卫•奥赫曼内克（David Ochmanek）直言不讳的表示，美国被“胖揍一顿”。
奥赫曼内克解释说，如果中国竭尽全力夺取台湾，那么它可以“在有限的时间内（以几天至几周为单位）实现其目标”。他说，原因是中国“将不仅攻击本地区的空军基地。他们还将攻击在海上航行的航空母舰……他们将攻击我们部署在太空的传感器。他们将攻击我们大部分通过卫星传输的数据链。”
也许这场兵棋推演低估了美国反击的能力，或者高估了中国的作战能力。也许美国可以最终击退中国对台湾的进攻。然而，这样的“胜利”将使美国付出惊人的高昂代价。
除了美国将付出生命代价、舰船被击沉和飞机被击落的代价，美国还必须难以令人称羡的在台湾驻扎大规模军事力量，并在整个亚太地区广布基地以拱卫台湾，防止中国再次尝试攻取台湾。为了永久维持此防御态势并时刻警惕遭受新的攻击，美国将不得不花费数千亿美元。
此外，地理环境也是一个问题。台湾与中国大陆的距离和古巴与佛罗里达州的距离大致相同，而台湾则和美国大陆相距大约六千海里。新冠疫情导致美国经济下滑，这已使美国国防预算捉襟见肘，如果美国再与中国开战，则暴增的国防开支会直接瘫痪美国。简而言之，美国输掉与中国的战争将是一场灾难，而替台湾“赢得”这场战争将会使美国破产。显然，华盛顿需要找到与北京对抗的更好方法。幸运的是，还真有更好的选择。
美国帮助台湾并吓阻中国使用武力的最好方法，是鼓励美国在亚太地区的友邦（不止台湾）加快本国的防御能力建设。中国加强本国对美防御的出名一招是其建立了区域拒止/反介入作战体系，该体系将使美国在攻击中国时付出惨重代价。台湾也应该建立自己的区域拒止/反介入作战体系。
美国智库眼中的中国区域拒止/反介入作战体系 图片来源：环球网
台北应通过建立自己的区域拒止/反介入作战体系来增强自身防御能力，这将使中国在使用武力统一台湾时付出沉重的代价并不再确信自己一定会获得最终胜利，这样北京的中共领导人就不会冒着可能战败的风险放手一搏。但我们必须承认，即使如此也不能确保中国不会进攻台湾。单就美国政策而言，我们实在没道理在美国利益未受到直接威胁的情况下去承担战败或破产的风险。
