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Good News for USA: Economy Leveling Out, Recession Over

londoncabby

Alfrescian
Loyal
Only #1 Obama can achieve such greatness. Inherit mess from Bush and already fixing crisis in 6 months. Only true leaders like Obama can achieve.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g_S5cSA_kwYiaPl9e-FmlENxHSxwD9A1K4M80

Fed says economy leveling out; rates stay at lows

By JEANNINE AVERSA (AP) – 16 hours ago

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve delivered a vote of confidence in the economy Wednesday, saying it would slow the pace of an emergency rescue program and indicating the recession appears to be ending.

The central bank also held interest rates steady at record lows, with a closely watched bank lending rate near zero, and again pledged to keep them there for "an extended period" to nurture an anticipated recovery.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said the economy appeared to be "leveling out" — a considerable upgrade from their last meeting in June, when the Fed observed only that the economy's contraction was slowing.

"We're no longer at DEFCON 1," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research, referring to the defense term used to indicate being under siege. "The Fed is pulling in some of its life preservers now that the economy is no longer sinking."

The more optimistic tone lifted Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials gained about 120 points, or 1.3 percent, to close above 9,360 — near their highest level since the market bottomed out in early March.

The Fed said it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled.

It has bought $253 billion of the securities so far. The program is designed to force interest rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt and spur Americans to spend more money.

"I think the Fed is feeling increasingly comfortable about where the economy is going," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "For the first time in two years, the Fed is taking one step — a baby step — toward unwinding the massive stimulus."

The Treasury-buying program's effectiveness has been questioned on both Wall Street and Capitol Hill, with critics saying it looks like the Fed is printing money to pay for Uncle Sam's spending binge.

As the Fed winds down the program, rates on government debt might edge higher, economists said. But the Fed appeared to feel sufficiently secure that higher rates would not jeopardize a recovery, they said.

Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, viewed it as a "vote of confidence that credit markets and the economic outlook has improved and will show even further improvement down the road."

The Fed left unchanged another program that aims to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year.

The central bank's recent purchases have totaled about $543 billion, suggesting the Fed still has firepower in its arsenal.

The Fed left the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And economists think it will stay there through the rest of this year. The rationale: Super-cheap lending will lead Americans to spend more, which will support the economy.

If the Fed holds rates steady, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used as a peg for rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

The Fed gave its assessment after its first meeting since the economy began flashing significant signs of turning a corner. They include fewer job losses in July, slower economic contraction and stabilizing consumer spending. But dangers still lurk.

Further job losses, sluggish income growth, hits to wealth from tanking home values and still-hard-to-get credit could make Americans cautious in the months ahead, the Fed said.

The Fed expressed confidence that low rates and other aggressive action will gradually bolster the economy. Even so, economic activity probably will "remain weak for a time," the Fed warned.

Against that backdrop, the Fed said inflation is likely to stay "subdued." Fed policymakers predicted that idle factories and the weak employment market will make it hard for companies to jack up prices.

While unemployment dipped to 9.4 percent in July, the Fed says it's likely to top 10 percent this year because companies are in no rush to hire.

The Fed offered no hints about the fate of another program intended to spark more lending to individuals and businesses at lower rates.

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which had gotten off to a slow start in March, is slated to shut down at the end of December. And people are having trouble getting loans anyway, analysts say. More recently, the program was expanded to provide relief to the commercial real-estate market.

The Fed has been weighing whether it should end some of its economic revival programs now that signs are growing that the worst recession to hit the country since World War II is drawing to a close.

Many analysts believe the economy — which logged a mild contraction in the second quarter after a dizzying fall in the prior six months — is growing now.

"A paradigm shift is occurring at policy deliberations of the Federal Reserve," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University, Channel Islands. "The officials are no longer worried about a severe retrenchment as they were late last year. Now, they are trying to sustain the economic recovery in motion."
 

singveld

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Japan's economy leaves recession

Japan has come out of recession after recording growth of 0.9% in the April-June quarter, compared with the first.

The economy had shown four consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions.

Correspondents say that the rise is due to a huge government stimulus package and it is unclear whether the momentum will be sustained.

Recent figures have shown other nations coming out of recession, including Germany, France and Hong Kong, a sign the global slowdown is easing.

However, the Nikkei Stock Average has been unimpressed by the latest figures - in early morning trading in Tokyo the index was down more than 2%.

'Positive contribution'

If Japan's latest quarterly rate were maintained for a full year, the economy would grow 3.7%, figures from the Cabinet Office revealed on Monday.

Japan officially fell into recession last year and there was a dramatic fall in growth in January-March as the world economic slowdown hit Japanese exports hard.

Massive government stimulus measures helped to boost the economy, including cash handouts and subsidies to buy energy efficient cars and home appliances, the BBC's Roland Buerk in Tokyo says.

Manufacturers also benefited from recovering demand in China and other markets.

But Japan could still face a long road to sustainable recovery, our correspondent says.

Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS securities, told Reuters the latest figure was "very good".

"The positive contribution of public spending is likely to continue, so I don't think there will be a return to [contraction], as feared by some," the economist added.

European recovery

Japan is heavily reliant on its exports.

The slowdown in the US has hit it hard as American consumers have limited their spending.

In a recent Bank of Japan report, the central bank underlined its cautious view of the economy.

While it said conditions in the Japanese economy had stopped worsening, it warned that unemployment would stay high and consumer spending low.

Last month, the bank forecast that Japan's economy would shrink by 3.4% in the 12 months to 31 March 2010.

The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end recessions in Europe's largest economies that have lasted a year.

Analysts had not expected the data, suggesting recovery could be faster than previously expected.

And Hong Kong recorded growth of 3.3% in the three months from April to June.

That data was also better than had been expected, with the government subsequently increasing its forecast for growth in the whole year.
 
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