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GIC lost 41%? Accountabiliity please!

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
There are quite a few speculation about how much GIC lost in this crisis. As the GIC is directly under the charge of two heavy weights, Mr Lee Kuan Yew and Dr Tony Tan, it seems that such speculations are really "undesirable " and could well be kept as National Secrets forever.

Mr Lee Kuan Yew keeps saying that such investments are for "Long Term" but my question is, is it "Long Term" or "Wrong Term" already? Besides, with due respect, Mr Lee Kuan Yew is already at his ripe old age and many of his age would have enjoyed retirement life fully elsewhere in the world if they have his kind of wealth and social status.

Mr Goh Chok Tong's assertions about good governance keep ringing in my mind. He said a good government must be transparent and accountable, among other things like being clean. But how are we going to hold the present government accountable if whatever losses we suffer as a nation are being swept away as "Long Term" investment? Especially so when nobody knows whether one could live up to that definition of Long Term (which is not categorically defined as how long?), least a person of 80 over years old.

A WP member, Choon Yong, has an interesting account of what goes on in parliament. According to him, Madam Lim Hwee Hua uttered the figure 41% when Ms Sylvia Lim pressed for an answer to how much GIC has lost. This is really an interesting figure, though, not very surprising.

The PAP government has always claimed the figures of GIC as "National Secret". I am always very puzzled. If such important figures are being classified under "National Secret" how could accountability be exercised on the government itself? Well, I can understand that specific investment portfolio strategy is sensitive information but there is no necessity to keep aggregate figures as "National Secret" at all. Nothing to hide from there. If we are going to practice what good governance whereby accountability is a fundamental pillar, then specific figures and information should be made available. Figures like the amount of money in GIC and the percentage of gain or losses.

It is intriguing indeed. While the PAP government is ready to boast about how much GIC has earned in the past in a fascinating way (claiming to have how many percentage of return over how many years... etc), but when it comes to losses, it has suddenly become so secretive! It practically means that when it comes to claiming credits, PAP government is all too fast to claim it. But when it comes to take responsibility for lapses (well, do you remember Mas Selamat?) and losses, it suddenly sweeps everything under National Secrets!

If any figures are all National Secrets, then earnings from the past should be classified as National Secrets as well! Of course, that would basically mean that this PAP government does not believe in accountability at all. In Hong Kong, such critical figures would be available to public for scrutiny and it really makes me wonder why would Mr Goh Chok Tong go all the way to Hong Kong to teach something that PAP does not practice while Hong Kong government is already practicing! Without adequate information released, information that could well undermine PAP's leadership being hidden away, how could accountability be exercised at all?

Anyway, it is even more intriguing that the National Press has CONVENIENTLY omitted that "sensitive" figure 41% from their daily reports of the parliamentary debates! All is well when there are coordinated effort to avoid mentioning such potentially damaging data on National papers!

There was a report by foreign analyst that the amount of money that GIC holds initially could well be as high as $500 Billion. So if this magic figure of 41% is true, the losses of GIC alone would be $225.5 Billion! Although the official report of Temasek Holdings' losses is $58Billion at the end of 30 Nov 2008, but I guess this figure is grossly underestimated. This is basically because share prices has further tumbled in December 2008. The losses could be as high as $80 Billion by the end of last year.

Thus the total potential losses of GIC and Temasek holdings could well be $300 Billion! What does that mean? It means that it is a loss of $100,000 per Singapore citizen!

While PAP government has always been reluctant in setting up a formal system of social welfare for Singaporeans because it could squander off all our reserves, but it seems that the reserves could well be lost in a more dramatic and faster way in just one financial crisis like this one. The cruel truth is, such losses benefits no Singaporeans while at the very least, a social welfare system could at least benefit quite a number of Singaporeans, especially so in such economic crisis!

We have paid millions of dollars to PAP ministers annually for such mediocre performance which result in such losses that benefits no Singaporeans at all. Some may argue that such losses are "reasonable" because other funds around the world are making the same losses. BUT, please don't forget that we are paying our political office holders HIGHEST in the whole world but yet we are getting mediocre average results same as others? So the fundamental question is, are these "TALENTED ELITES of HIGHER MORTAL" value for money?

I believe this is not merely my ranting. Quite a number of people of middle class income came to my shop to ask me to make the same point. Our ministers are over valued. Their ministerial pay is just too ridiculous. These are not just normal ranting that we used to see in internet forums. These words are uttered by REAL Singaporeans on the street, some with very high qualifications.

This financial crisis has exposed the myth that PAP ministers are "extraordinary talents" that deserved to be paid millions of dollars per year. The PAP ministers may be highly qualified but they are just human, not "HIGHER MORTAL". Are they the "BEST"? Cream of the crop? I really doubt so. The reason being, the BEST and TOP people do not use monetary return as a value yardstick label to stick on them. These people know their limitations and would take responsibility and account for their mistakes. Obama is a good example. Ma Yinjiu is another good example.

I do not think with the present PAP mindset, we will be able to extract accountability from PAP ministers themselves. I do not believe that one could check on himself effectively without trying to shy away from responsibility. While billions are lost, not a single word of apology is heard from PAP ministers. The tightly controlled newspaper is still trying to trumpet it off as "better than others"! Of course, the usual rant that any losses are "temporary", no apology about that, no regrets about that but all for long term. While our children or even grand children in the far future "suffer" from such WRONG TERM investment, they wouldn't know who are the ones who are supposed to be responsible for these losses anyway.

So, this is the kind of accountability that PAP is teaching from their bible.

Goh Meng Seng
 

halsey02

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
GMS, before you fire any salvo, it is good to do a great amount of research. If you can get, how much money did MOF transfer to GIC & Temasek..etc., over the years, can it be found in the government gazettes?, or the balance sheet issued by GIC or temasek? or their PUBLISHED investment portfolis?..

With that, and other reseraches...then FIRE!

If not your actions, with be like the "Man of La Macha"...who spent most of time, fighting with the "windmill"...
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
GMS, before you fire any salvo, it is good to do a great amount of research. If you can get, how much money did MOF transfer to GIC & Temasek..etc., over the years, can it be found in the government gazettes?, or the balance sheet issued by GIC or temasek? or their PUBLISHED investment portfolis?..

With that, and other reseraches...then FIRE!

If not your actions, with be like the "Man of La Macha"...who spent most of time, fighting with the "windmill"...

Dear halsey,

I would love to do that but there isn't any means to get all those information without breaching the Official Secret Act. There is no announcement made in any official forms and that is why they could keep it as "secrets" for so long. So far, those estimates by analysts are based on the numerous investment made by GIC over the years. They track these investment down and do the sums. That's the best guess they could do.

For the PAP ministers, they would only use one unified phrase, "over one billion dollars". My own estimate was US$300B to US$400B in total from the various reading I have over the years. But it seems that this figure is outdated.

I guess only a few people at the top know how much reserves we have right now or how much money GIC has. Even employees of GIC won't know unless you are in the board of directors.

Goh Meng Seng
 

Tiu-leh-see-fart

Alfrescian
Loyal
Hi Meng Seng,

Good report by Choon Yong .

Now the next thing we do is how we can get this pc of news all over singapore.

Ang Mo kio GRC voters need to know this pc of news so they know what they voted for last GE.

if this unreported incident can spread around Ang Mo kio, it would be interesting.
 

VIBGYOR

Alfrescian
Loyal
So, this is the kind of accountability that PAP is teaching from their bible.

Dear Lim, My fellow sister in Christ,

There will be times like this that will determine and test your faith in God, whether you put God above partisan interests or even "national" interests.

Remember all of us will be judge one day and you have to stand face to face to God and explain what you have done to our brothers and sisters on earth.

You cannot lie to Him, God knows each and everyone of our actions as they are being inscribed on the palm of his hands.

Always remember this.
 
Last edited:

sgnewsalte

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear Goh Meng Seng, the reply to why GIC has to be remain under secrecy is in this interview. Pls take note from 1.40 mins onwards. You may have seen it before, but I would like to post it for those who haven't.

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Key points:

1. Spore SWFs has to remain non-tranparent:
a. To pre-empt any anticipations of the market to GIC's move.
b. To pre-empt any expectation from Spore citizen on the surplus
2. Spore SWFs invested in US troubled banks because of their brand names.
3. Compared to Warren Buffet who is also a long-term investor, MM Lee says Warren Buffet needs to give returns to his shareholders every year, but GIC doesn't have to.

What MM Lee have said is certainly controversial and disputable.
 

pia

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear Lim, My fellow sister in Christ,

There will be times like this that will determine and test your faith in God, whether you put God above partisan interests or even "national" interests.

Remember all of us will be judge one day and you have to stand face to face to God and explain what you have done to our brothers and sisters on earth.

You cannot lie to Him, God knows each and everyone of our actions as they are being inscribed at the palm of his hands.

Always remember this.

“Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s” (“Ἀπόδοτε οὖν τὰ Καίσαρος Καίσαρι καὶ τὰ τοῦ Θεοῦ τῷ Θεῷ”) (Matthew 22:21).

Perhaps this explains the apathy among Christian folks to the govt's lack of accountability? Let them be accountable to God.. no need to us? :confused:
 

VIBGYOR

Alfrescian
Loyal
“Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s” (“Ἀπόδοτε οὖν τὰ Καίσαρος Καίσαρι καὶ τὰ τοῦ Θεοῦ τῷ Θεῷ”) (Matthew 22:21).

Perhaps this explains the apathy among Christian folks to the govt's lack of accountability? Let them be accountable to God.. no need to us? :confused:

erm...could you read the highlighted words?
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
There are quite a few speculation about how much GIC lost in this crisis.

Agree with you that the cloak of national secrecy is not going to wash and that good governance calls for transparency, independent directors and comparing apples with apples.

The only thing that I don't get is the 41%. A substantial portion of GIC investments as I understand is in real estate and conservative instruments. The Property market around the world has yet to react fully to the global crisis.

I am pretty sure that it cannot be worse than Temasek. The profile is very different. Even if they have property portfolio is California, the commercial property is not that bad.

41% is a massive disaster even with the recent banking investments. Something is amiss.

Thanks for sharing this with us. These are the things that should be raised and discussed.
 

VIBGYOR

Alfrescian
Loyal
Agree with you that the cloak of national secrecy is not going to wash and that good governance calls for transparency, independent directors and comparing apples with apples.

when many people start asking questions, maybe it's time to end the charade of secrecy and its about time to cough out the figures?
 

DOM the Clown

Alfrescian
Loyal
GMS, before you fire any salvo, it is good to do a great amount of research. If you can get, how much money did MOF transfer to GIC & Temasek..etc., over the years, can it be found in the government gazettes?, or the balance sheet issued by GIC or temasek? or their PUBLISHED investment portfolis?..

With that, and other reseraches...then FIRE!

If not your actions, with be like the "Man of La Macha"...who spent most of time, fighting with the "windmill"...

Bro,

Do you mean Don Quixote?

Cheers!

DON the Clown
 

DOM the Clown

Alfrescian
Loyal
Key points:

1. Spore SWFs has to remain non-tranparent:
a. To pre-empt any anticipations of the market to GIC's move.
b. To pre-empt any expectation from Spore citizen on the surplus
2. Spore SWFs invested in US troubled banks because of their brand names.
3. Compared to Warren Buffet who is also a long-term investor, MM Lee says Warren Buffet needs to give returns to his shareholders every year, but GIC doesn't have to.

What MM Lee have said is certainly controversial and disputable.

Ya! If we were to PRE-EMPT the stoooooooooopid GIC's move, we'll go the opposite direction! HUAT AH!!!!
 

lockeliberal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear GMS

Perhaps in view of impending possible nuptials , then allow me this chance to errr bat for the PAP and the establishment.

Firstly I believe that GIC should be as transparent as Temasek has been. Secondly whatever bonuses they were entitled to should well disappear because of the general bad state of the equity market . Lastly since the PAP has been all to ready to claim credit when times are good, they should to come out and take responsibility or explain better than they have at present when times are bad.

The all round opaqueness just lends to ill informed speculation, rough calculations and generally bad coffee shop chatter and rumours. It also lends to calls on the part of some within the opposition for policies which are even more damaging to Singapore than whatever losses we currently suffer on portfolio investments.

We as a nation , as a people have gotten rich over the last thirty years through being a part of financial and trade liberalization. I am very thankful for that and of full praise for the PAP for positioning us in that regards. We do have however opposition who now are not only liberal democrats but somewhat "chavez" when it comes to economics something I disagree with fundamentally.

Long term need not be "wrong term". I would call on the GIC to recalculate its investment portfolio based on a pure T Bill and AAA corporate bond holdings since its inception taking into account the yearly surpluses it manages. I suspect the final number based on such a portfolio would currently be a lot less than the final number for GIC even taking into account the losses. That is the nature of the market, that equities deliver better performances than bonds and bills.

Finally that 41% number should be clarified in view of the absolute statement that they were sitting heavy in cash. Is it 41% inclusive of everything or 41% only for remaining portfolio stocks ? Does it include real eastate ?




Locke
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
Dear Locke,

Seems that your timing is not Wrong Term but Wrong time. :wink:

You should ask Lim HH what that 41% means. Ask your party's two MPs to do that next time round.

Accountability, no matter how you see, be it opaque or transparent, is apparently lacking. That's the point. One cannot brush away his high profile responsibility by simply pushing everything under the carpet of Long Term. Whether it is WRONG TERM or not, let time prove it.

Goh Meng Seng



Dear GMS

Perhaps in view of impending possible nuptials , then allow me this chance to errr bat for the PAP and the establishment.

Firstly I believe that GIC should be as transparent as Temasek has been. Secondly whatever bonuses they were entitled to should well disappear because of the general bad state of the equity market . Lastly since the PAP has been all to ready to claim credit when times are good, they should to come out and take responsibility or explain better than they have at present when times are bad.

The all round opaqueness just lends to ill informed speculation, rough calculations and generally bad coffee shop chatter and rumours. It also lends to calls on the part of some within the opposition for policies which are even more damaging to Singapore than whatever losses we currently suffer on portfolio investments.

We as a nation , as a people have gotten rich over the last thirty years through being a part of financial and trade liberalization. I am very thankful for that and of full praise for the PAP for positioning us in that regards. We do have however opposition who now are not only liberal democrats but somewhat "chavez" when it comes to economics something I disagree with fundamentally.

Long term need not be "wrong term". I would call on the GIC to recalculate its investment portfolio based on a pure T Bill and AAA corporate bond holdings since its inception taking into account the yearly surpluses it manages. I suspect the final number based on such a portfolio would currently be a lot less than the final number for GIC even taking into account the losses. That is the nature of the market, that equities deliver better performances than bonds and bills.

Finally that 41% number should be clarified in view of the absolute statement that they were sitting heavy in cash. Is it 41% inclusive of everything or 41% only for remaining portfolio stocks ? Does it include real eastate ?




Locke
 

VIBGYOR

Alfrescian
Loyal
It also lends to calls on the part of some within the opposition for policies which are even more damaging to Singapore than whatever losses we currently suffer on portfolio investments.

i disagree with you on this point, opposition member LTK proposed extending credit facilities to businesses, really helps the businesses in times crisis like this. it is being done in Japan and Germany. i am surprised PAP never thought of including this in the budget plan.

i am even surprised you could come to this conclusion when opposition has no part to play in this GIC and Temasek debacle.

it is actually greed of the PAP, especially minions following the policies from the head honcho lky, that caused such massive losses, and the actual figures are yet unknown.
 

lockeliberal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear Vib

Sigh not the first time and probably not the last that I would disagree with the party I am part of. Firstly whilst I agree with the need for credit to companies, I disagree with LTK that a credit facility is the best means to provide it, and at the same time while I agree with the gov guaranteeing loans to SME from the banks, I believe that the guarantee does not come with mandated lending targets and an excessive spread over SIBOR.

Ok in terms of economic policy prescription, The SDP has in my view done a chavez and are calling for a whole sale deplugging from financial and trade liberalization.
Whilst we may have had eroded national investments, I am still all for being part of international trade and finance flows and in decry and criticizing losses (justified) in my view in western financial insitutions, I am in no way advaocating a whole sale retreat from an economic model based on liberal trade and finance. And finally as Wall Street once stated " greed is good" for markets and for economies



Locke
 
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