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https://tw.news.yahoo.com/蘋果也推平價機、打機海戰術-「一支iphone救台灣」時-075433175.html
蘋果也推平價機、打機海戰術...「一支iPhone救台灣」時代，宣告結束！
商業周刊
1k 人追蹤
2018年8月1日 下午3:54
文／馬自明
今年將是iPhone最後的派對，明年起，「一支iPhone救台灣」的時代將宣告結束！
檢視相片
根據麥格理證券預估，今年是蘋果iPhone營收最後的「雙位數」成長，包含iPad、Macbook等其他硬體，營收成長也高達12.7%，但從2019年起，蘋果的硬體營收成長掉到3%以下，到2022年，將只剩下0.8%。
換句話說，台灣蘋果供應鏈要再靠iPhone高成長，今年將是最後的機會，明年蘋果的新機紅利，恐怕沒了。
最懂蘋果的天風國際證券分析師郭明錤預測，蘋果今年將推出三款iPhone：兩款用的是三星的OLED螢幕，尺寸分別為6.5吋和5.8吋；另一款是LCD、6.1吋螢幕。
不過，這三款iPhone除螢幕大小外，最大的差別在價格：兩款OLED款定價約在800至1000美元，而平價款最可能落在700美元（約新台幣20300元）左右。
研究機構WitsView研究協理范博毓指出，如果以同尺寸螢幕相比，LCD款或許是蘋果史上最便宜的大螢幕手機。
自2009年蘋果推出iPhone3GS以來，新機售價幾乎未低於新台幣2萬元，價格超「硬」的蘋果，今年竟然有可能往下鬆動，價策略往平價移動，這將是一場改變市場版圖的爭奪戰。
這個智慧型手機價格區間帶目前有三星、華為、OPPO等重要的玩家，過去蘋果在其價格區間自己「玩」，現在幾乎所有重要玩家都打在一起，而一向是蘋果供應鍵重要夥伴的台灣，更將面臨前所未有的零組件殺價衝擊。
檢視相片
蘋果主打平價機種，對供應鏈不是件好事。蘋果內部有一條「38度線」，意即整體毛利率守穩在38%左右，為讓平價機種都能擠出獲利，回頭揮刀砍的是零件供應廠的報價。
有位分析師替我們算這筆帳：蘋果一年賣約2億支手機，一支手機材料成本約250美元，換言之，光材料費就要500億美元！它只要砍10％，就省下50億美元，用來做研發，做行銷都好。
蘋果除忙著砍供應鏈價格，以及消化iPhoneX的零件庫存，它接下來有三大策略，化危機為轉機，這是台灣蘋果供應鏈，以及台灣經濟下一件最重要的事。
策略一：打機海戰術
第一招，調整產品組合。今年三款新機除平價的LCD外，蘋果另推出6.5吋的大螢幕高價版新機，螢幕變大，但定價卻與去年5.8吋的iPhoneX相去不遠，等於蘋果一口氣發表這三款新機，從高、中、低價到各種尺寸的大螢幕，通通齊全了！
「百花齊放式」的產品組合，一來是蘋果真的急了，用各種新品填滿供應商產能；二來是用各種新品，帶動消費者下半年的換機需求。
策略二：擴大賣服務
蘋果今年各款新機出籠，拚銷售量，為的是它的第二招：賣的不只是硬體，是背後的服務。蘋果從去年11月推出iPhoneX，它幾乎每兩到三個月，就啟動應用服務的購併，或新的嘗試。
例如，去年12月，蘋果宣布將購併音樂辨識服務Shazam，今年3月，又再買下號稱「雜誌界的Netflix」平台Texture。今年五月，《華爾街日報》指出，庫克還找上高盛，準備在明年推出掛名「Apple Pay」的信用卡。
「蘋果接下來一定朝音樂、支付等應用服務方向找獲利機會，」高鴻翔表示。不過蘋果能夠賺毛利率近7成的服務財，台灣蘋果供應鏈專長卻在硬體製造，難以找到著力點。
策略三：逃離iPhone
蘋果的第三招，是研發新產品，向iPhone說再見！下一個重要戰場，是擴增實境（AR）。庫克曾說，擴增實境是比智慧型手機更重要的事，而彭博指出，蘋果已著手開發AR頭盔，代號為「T288計畫」，並向供應鏈下單少量零件，進行測試，估計2019年技術到位，2020年對外銷售。
不過，看得遠的台系廠商，已預見蘋果不容易再創iPhone高峰，秘密啟動轉型，準備「逃離iPhone」。
例如，光學鏡頭廠大立光過去成長，幾乎都靠蘋果訂單，但從近年開始，執行長林恩平亦不再獨壓蘋果，如旗下最新產品三鏡頭，供應的就不是蘋果，而是華為；林恩平也對外指出，納入三鏡頭設計的客戶已經變多，明年可看到更多該產品。
蘋果都在尋找「後智慧型手機時代」的下一波創新，坐穩領袖地位，台灣蘋果供應鏈應趁早轉型，沒有理由等待。
更多商業周刊報導
Apple also pushes the price machine and the sea tactics... "An iPhone saves Taiwan" era, it is over!
[Business weekly]
Business weekly
1k person tracking
August 1, 2018, 3:54 PM
Text / Ma Ziming
This year will be the last party of the iPhone. From next year, the era of "an iPhone to save Taiwan" will come to an end!
View photo
According to Macquarie Securities estimates, this year is Apple's iPhone's last "double-digit" growth, including iPad, Macbook and other hardware, revenue growth of up to 12.7%, but from 2019, Apple's hardware Revenue growth fell below 3%, and by 2022, only 0.8% will remain.
In other words, Taiwan's Apple supply chain will rely on the iPhone to grow up. This year will be the last chance. Apple's new machine bonus next year is probably gone.
Guo Minghao, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, who knows Apple best, predicts that Apple will launch three iPhones this year: two models use Samsung's OLED screens, which are 6.5 inches and 5.8 inches respectively; the other is LCD and 6.1-inch screens.
However, the biggest difference between the three iPhones in terms of screen size is the price: the two OLED models are priced at between $800 and $1,000, while the parity models are most likely to fall at around $700 (about NT$20,300).
Researcher WitsView research associate Fan Bozhen pointed out that if compared to the same size screen, LCD models may be the cheapest big screen mobile phone in Apple's history.
Since Apple introduced the iPhone 3GS in 2009, the price of the new machine is almost no less than NT$20,000. The price of the “hard” Apple is likely to loosen this year and the price strategy will move to parity. This will be a change in the market. The battle for the map.
This smart phone price range currently has important players such as Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, etc. In the past, Apple "played" itself in its price range. Now almost all the important players are playing together, and Taiwan has always been an important partner of Apple Supply Key. , will face an unprecedented component price shock.
View photo
Apple's main low-priced model is not a good thing for the supply chain. There is a "38 degree line" inside Apple, which means that the overall gross profit margin is kept at around 38%. In order to allow the cheaper models to squeeze out profits, it is the quotation of the parts supplier.
An analyst calculated this account for us: Apple sells about 200 million mobile phones a year, and the cost of a mobile phone material is about $250. In other words, the cost of light materials is $50 billion! As long as it cuts 10%, it saves $5 billion for research and development and marketing.
In addition to busy cutting the supply chain price and digesting the iPhoneX parts inventory, Apple has three major strategies to turn the crisis into a turning point. This is the Taiwan Apple supply chain and the next most important thing in the Taiwan economy.
Strategy 1: Fighting sea tactics
The first move is to adjust the product portfolio. In addition to the LCD of the three new models this year, Apple has launched a new 6.5-inch high-priced version of the new screen, the screen has become larger, but the price is not far from the 5.8-inch iPhoneX last year, which is equivalent to Apple’s release of these three new ones. Machines, from high, medium and low prices to large screens of all sizes, all are complete!
The product mix of "Hundred Flowers and Flowers" is that Apple is really anxious to fill the supplier's production capacity with various new products. Secondly, it uses various new products to drive consumers' demand for replacement in the second half of the year.
Strategy 2: Expanding the sale of services
Apple's new models came out this year, fighting sales, in order to its second move: selling is not just hardware, is the service behind. Apple launched the iPhoneX in November last year, and it started application acquisitions or new attempts almost every two to three months.
For example, in December last year, Apple announced that it would acquire Shazam, a music identification service. In March of this year, it bought another website called "Netflix in the magazine industry". In May of this year, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Cook was also looking for Goldman Sachs and was preparing to launch a credit card with the name "Apple Pay" next year.
"Apple will definitely look for profit opportunities in the direction of music, payment and other application services," Gao Hongxiang said. However, Apple is able to earn nearly 70% of the gross profit margin. Taiwan's Apple supply chain expertise is hard-made, and it is difficult to find a point.
Strategy 3: Escape the iPhone
Apple’s third move is to develop new products and say goodbye to the iPhone! The next important battlefield is Augmented Reality (AR). Cook has said that augmented reality is more important than smart phones, and Bloomberg pointed out that Apple has started to develop AR helmets, code-named "T288 Project", and to test a small number of parts in the supply chain. It is estimated that the technology will be in place in 2019 and will be sold in 2020.
However, Taiwanese manufacturers who have seen far away have foreseen that it is not easy for Apple to create an iPhone peak again, secretly start a transformation, and prepare to "escape the iPhone."
For example, the optical lens factory Da Liguang has grown in the past, almost all rely on Apple orders, but from recent years, CEO Lin Enping is no longer alone in Apple, such as its latest product three lenses, the supply is not Apple, but Huawei; Lin Enping It is also pointed out that the number of customers who have incorporated the three-lens design has increased, and more products can be seen next year.
Apple is looking for the next wave of innovation in the "post-smart phone era", holding a stable leadership position, Taiwan's Apple supply chain should be transformed early, there is no reason to wait.
More Business Weekly reports
蘋果也推平價機、打機海戰術...「一支iPhone救台灣」時代，宣告結束！
商業周刊
1k 人追蹤
2018年8月1日 下午3:54
文／馬自明
今年將是iPhone最後的派對，明年起，「一支iPhone救台灣」的時代將宣告結束！
檢視相片
根據麥格理證券預估，今年是蘋果iPhone營收最後的「雙位數」成長，包含iPad、Macbook等其他硬體，營收成長也高達12.7%，但從2019年起，蘋果的硬體營收成長掉到3%以下，到2022年，將只剩下0.8%。
換句話說，台灣蘋果供應鏈要再靠iPhone高成長，今年將是最後的機會，明年蘋果的新機紅利，恐怕沒了。
最懂蘋果的天風國際證券分析師郭明錤預測，蘋果今年將推出三款iPhone：兩款用的是三星的OLED螢幕，尺寸分別為6.5吋和5.8吋；另一款是LCD、6.1吋螢幕。
不過，這三款iPhone除螢幕大小外，最大的差別在價格：兩款OLED款定價約在800至1000美元，而平價款最可能落在700美元（約新台幣20300元）左右。
研究機構WitsView研究協理范博毓指出，如果以同尺寸螢幕相比，LCD款或許是蘋果史上最便宜的大螢幕手機。
自2009年蘋果推出iPhone3GS以來，新機售價幾乎未低於新台幣2萬元，價格超「硬」的蘋果，今年竟然有可能往下鬆動，價策略往平價移動，這將是一場改變市場版圖的爭奪戰。
這個智慧型手機價格區間帶目前有三星、華為、OPPO等重要的玩家，過去蘋果在其價格區間自己「玩」，現在幾乎所有重要玩家都打在一起，而一向是蘋果供應鍵重要夥伴的台灣，更將面臨前所未有的零組件殺價衝擊。
檢視相片
蘋果主打平價機種，對供應鏈不是件好事。蘋果內部有一條「38度線」，意即整體毛利率守穩在38%左右，為讓平價機種都能擠出獲利，回頭揮刀砍的是零件供應廠的報價。
有位分析師替我們算這筆帳：蘋果一年賣約2億支手機，一支手機材料成本約250美元，換言之，光材料費就要500億美元！它只要砍10％，就省下50億美元，用來做研發，做行銷都好。
蘋果除忙著砍供應鏈價格，以及消化iPhoneX的零件庫存，它接下來有三大策略，化危機為轉機，這是台灣蘋果供應鏈，以及台灣經濟下一件最重要的事。
策略一：打機海戰術
第一招，調整產品組合。今年三款新機除平價的LCD外，蘋果另推出6.5吋的大螢幕高價版新機，螢幕變大，但定價卻與去年5.8吋的iPhoneX相去不遠，等於蘋果一口氣發表這三款新機，從高、中、低價到各種尺寸的大螢幕，通通齊全了！
「百花齊放式」的產品組合，一來是蘋果真的急了，用各種新品填滿供應商產能；二來是用各種新品，帶動消費者下半年的換機需求。
策略二：擴大賣服務
蘋果今年各款新機出籠，拚銷售量，為的是它的第二招：賣的不只是硬體，是背後的服務。蘋果從去年11月推出iPhoneX，它幾乎每兩到三個月，就啟動應用服務的購併，或新的嘗試。
例如，去年12月，蘋果宣布將購併音樂辨識服務Shazam，今年3月，又再買下號稱「雜誌界的Netflix」平台Texture。今年五月，《華爾街日報》指出，庫克還找上高盛，準備在明年推出掛名「Apple Pay」的信用卡。
「蘋果接下來一定朝音樂、支付等應用服務方向找獲利機會，」高鴻翔表示。不過蘋果能夠賺毛利率近7成的服務財，台灣蘋果供應鏈專長卻在硬體製造，難以找到著力點。
策略三：逃離iPhone
蘋果的第三招，是研發新產品，向iPhone說再見！下一個重要戰場，是擴增實境（AR）。庫克曾說，擴增實境是比智慧型手機更重要的事，而彭博指出，蘋果已著手開發AR頭盔，代號為「T288計畫」，並向供應鏈下單少量零件，進行測試，估計2019年技術到位，2020年對外銷售。
不過，看得遠的台系廠商，已預見蘋果不容易再創iPhone高峰，秘密啟動轉型，準備「逃離iPhone」。
例如，光學鏡頭廠大立光過去成長，幾乎都靠蘋果訂單，但從近年開始，執行長林恩平亦不再獨壓蘋果，如旗下最新產品三鏡頭，供應的就不是蘋果，而是華為；林恩平也對外指出，納入三鏡頭設計的客戶已經變多，明年可看到更多該產品。
蘋果都在尋找「後智慧型手機時代」的下一波創新，坐穩領袖地位，台灣蘋果供應鏈應趁早轉型，沒有理由等待。
更多商業周刊報導
Apple also pushes the price machine and the sea tactics... "An iPhone saves Taiwan" era, it is over!
[Business weekly]
Business weekly
1k person tracking
August 1, 2018, 3:54 PM
Text / Ma Ziming
This year will be the last party of the iPhone. From next year, the era of "an iPhone to save Taiwan" will come to an end!
View photo
According to Macquarie Securities estimates, this year is Apple's iPhone's last "double-digit" growth, including iPad, Macbook and other hardware, revenue growth of up to 12.7%, but from 2019, Apple's hardware Revenue growth fell below 3%, and by 2022, only 0.8% will remain.
In other words, Taiwan's Apple supply chain will rely on the iPhone to grow up. This year will be the last chance. Apple's new machine bonus next year is probably gone.
Guo Minghao, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, who knows Apple best, predicts that Apple will launch three iPhones this year: two models use Samsung's OLED screens, which are 6.5 inches and 5.8 inches respectively; the other is LCD and 6.1-inch screens.
However, the biggest difference between the three iPhones in terms of screen size is the price: the two OLED models are priced at between $800 and $1,000, while the parity models are most likely to fall at around $700 (about NT$20,300).
Researcher WitsView research associate Fan Bozhen pointed out that if compared to the same size screen, LCD models may be the cheapest big screen mobile phone in Apple's history.
Since Apple introduced the iPhone 3GS in 2009, the price of the new machine is almost no less than NT$20,000. The price of the “hard” Apple is likely to loosen this year and the price strategy will move to parity. This will be a change in the market. The battle for the map.
This smart phone price range currently has important players such as Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, etc. In the past, Apple "played" itself in its price range. Now almost all the important players are playing together, and Taiwan has always been an important partner of Apple Supply Key. , will face an unprecedented component price shock.
View photo
Apple's main low-priced model is not a good thing for the supply chain. There is a "38 degree line" inside Apple, which means that the overall gross profit margin is kept at around 38%. In order to allow the cheaper models to squeeze out profits, it is the quotation of the parts supplier.
An analyst calculated this account for us: Apple sells about 200 million mobile phones a year, and the cost of a mobile phone material is about $250. In other words, the cost of light materials is $50 billion! As long as it cuts 10%, it saves $5 billion for research and development and marketing.
In addition to busy cutting the supply chain price and digesting the iPhoneX parts inventory, Apple has three major strategies to turn the crisis into a turning point. This is the Taiwan Apple supply chain and the next most important thing in the Taiwan economy.
Strategy 1: Fighting sea tactics
The first move is to adjust the product portfolio. In addition to the LCD of the three new models this year, Apple has launched a new 6.5-inch high-priced version of the new screen, the screen has become larger, but the price is not far from the 5.8-inch iPhoneX last year, which is equivalent to Apple’s release of these three new ones. Machines, from high, medium and low prices to large screens of all sizes, all are complete!
The product mix of "Hundred Flowers and Flowers" is that Apple is really anxious to fill the supplier's production capacity with various new products. Secondly, it uses various new products to drive consumers' demand for replacement in the second half of the year.
Strategy 2: Expanding the sale of services
Apple's new models came out this year, fighting sales, in order to its second move: selling is not just hardware, is the service behind. Apple launched the iPhoneX in November last year, and it started application acquisitions or new attempts almost every two to three months.
For example, in December last year, Apple announced that it would acquire Shazam, a music identification service. In March of this year, it bought another website called "Netflix in the magazine industry". In May of this year, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Cook was also looking for Goldman Sachs and was preparing to launch a credit card with the name "Apple Pay" next year.
"Apple will definitely look for profit opportunities in the direction of music, payment and other application services," Gao Hongxiang said. However, Apple is able to earn nearly 70% of the gross profit margin. Taiwan's Apple supply chain expertise is hard-made, and it is difficult to find a point.
Strategy 3: Escape the iPhone
Apple’s third move is to develop new products and say goodbye to the iPhone! The next important battlefield is Augmented Reality (AR). Cook has said that augmented reality is more important than smart phones, and Bloomberg pointed out that Apple has started to develop AR helmets, code-named "T288 Project", and to test a small number of parts in the supply chain. It is estimated that the technology will be in place in 2019 and will be sold in 2020.
However, Taiwanese manufacturers who have seen far away have foreseen that it is not easy for Apple to create an iPhone peak again, secretly start a transformation, and prepare to "escape the iPhone."
For example, the optical lens factory Da Liguang has grown in the past, almost all rely on Apple orders, but from recent years, CEO Lin Enping is no longer alone in Apple, such as its latest product three lenses, the supply is not Apple, but Huawei; Lin Enping It is also pointed out that the number of customers who have incorporated the three-lens design has increased, and more products can be seen next year.
Apple is looking for the next wave of innovation in the "post-smart phone era", holding a stable leadership position, Taiwan's Apple supply chain should be transformed early, there is no reason to wait.
More Business Weekly reports
