A quantum leap awaits UMNO
By Ooi Kee Beng
For The Malaysian Insider
5 November 2008
It is now definite that Najib Abdul Razak will become the seventh president of the United Malay National Organisation (Umno). If things go as the party plans, the eldest son of Malaysia's second Prime Minister will become its sixth Prime Minister next March.
However, things do not look too auspicious for Najib, or for the 63-year-old party for that matter. The impressive support that Umno's divisions are presently showing a man tainted by various serious allegations of corruption and who is not known for his leadership qualities hint more at the desperate situation the party finds itself in than at the popularity of the offspring of the highly-esteemed Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.
Umno is at a juncture in its history when business cannot go on as usual.
Externally, one can compare it to parties in other countries, which paved the way for independence or had dominated the modernization process.
Such parties - excepting the Cuban communist party - have had to reform themselves radically. Many had to disappear from power for a while before returning in a new form. Many never came back.
The Chinese Communist Party takes the cake for managing the most impressive transformation of them all, and remaining in power while doing it.
The Kuomintang of Taiwan lost power and then regained it as a totally new type of party, as did India's Congress Party. The Russian Communist Party, once in control of a superpower of a federation, never returned to power.
What was typical of these parties was that they all seemed irreplaceable in their heyday. Such had been Umno's presence as well, at least until March 8 this year. The battering it took that day subsequently toppled the hapless Abdullah Badawi, and placed an uninspiring Najib next in line for the top post.
So which will be Umno's fate under Najib? Will it transform itself enough to stay in power, lose power and then return in a new form, or fail to transform itself and disappear from power altogether?
Tun Abdul Razak became Prime Minister after the ruling coalition suffered great losses in the general elections of 1969. Forty years later, his son will become Prime Minister following similarly bad losses for the coalition. But the similarity ends there. One thing the father had going for him was the trust, support and competence of his deputy. Tun Dr Ismail Abdul Rahman. The son has no such personality at his side.
This might tempt him to flirt with forces within the party which are not necessarily loyal to him, such as those allied to former strongman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The father was succeeded by a weak leader, while the son succeeds a weak leader. This makes the son's work that much harder, since the party now lacks direction and the Malay ground is more split than ever before.
What was critical to the father's success was his administration's ability to recruit opposition forces into the coalition. The son will be tempted make similar attempts. However, not only is his coalition as it stands today in danger of falling apart, the opposition parties have never been able to present themselves as a more possible alternative government than they do today.
The father has gone down in history for being the father of development, especially where the Malay community was concerned. The son may be tempted to champion Malayness at a time when racialism is being criticized, also by Malay leaders, and not for ideological reasons, but for being inefficacious and divisive. The role Umno has played in the history of Malaysia is great indeed. It orchestrated the gaining of independence for the country, it managed to secure the Malay agenda to an impressive level, and it managed to develop its economy to a level admired internationally.
In the process of changing the country, it evolved in ways that has left it with less proportionate support than ever before. It holds only 36 per cent of Parliament's seats today. In its heyday, it held a two-third majority all by itself. Malaysian society has been developing in one direction and Umno in another. Can the party under Najib make a quantum leap back into decisive relevance, or will it illadvisedly try to change society to suit itself? The choices are not as many as its future leaders may think. The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is “March 8: Eclipsing May 13” (with Johan Saravanamuttu and Lee Hock Guan,
ISEAS).
By Ooi Kee Beng
For The Malaysian Insider
5 November 2008
It is now definite that Najib Abdul Razak will become the seventh president of the United Malay National Organisation (Umno). If things go as the party plans, the eldest son of Malaysia's second Prime Minister will become its sixth Prime Minister next March.
However, things do not look too auspicious for Najib, or for the 63-year-old party for that matter. The impressive support that Umno's divisions are presently showing a man tainted by various serious allegations of corruption and who is not known for his leadership qualities hint more at the desperate situation the party finds itself in than at the popularity of the offspring of the highly-esteemed Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.
Umno is at a juncture in its history when business cannot go on as usual.
Externally, one can compare it to parties in other countries, which paved the way for independence or had dominated the modernization process.
Such parties - excepting the Cuban communist party - have had to reform themselves radically. Many had to disappear from power for a while before returning in a new form. Many never came back.
The Chinese Communist Party takes the cake for managing the most impressive transformation of them all, and remaining in power while doing it.
The Kuomintang of Taiwan lost power and then regained it as a totally new type of party, as did India's Congress Party. The Russian Communist Party, once in control of a superpower of a federation, never returned to power.
What was typical of these parties was that they all seemed irreplaceable in their heyday. Such had been Umno's presence as well, at least until March 8 this year. The battering it took that day subsequently toppled the hapless Abdullah Badawi, and placed an uninspiring Najib next in line for the top post.
So which will be Umno's fate under Najib? Will it transform itself enough to stay in power, lose power and then return in a new form, or fail to transform itself and disappear from power altogether?
Tun Abdul Razak became Prime Minister after the ruling coalition suffered great losses in the general elections of 1969. Forty years later, his son will become Prime Minister following similarly bad losses for the coalition. But the similarity ends there. One thing the father had going for him was the trust, support and competence of his deputy. Tun Dr Ismail Abdul Rahman. The son has no such personality at his side.
This might tempt him to flirt with forces within the party which are not necessarily loyal to him, such as those allied to former strongman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The father was succeeded by a weak leader, while the son succeeds a weak leader. This makes the son's work that much harder, since the party now lacks direction and the Malay ground is more split than ever before.
What was critical to the father's success was his administration's ability to recruit opposition forces into the coalition. The son will be tempted make similar attempts. However, not only is his coalition as it stands today in danger of falling apart, the opposition parties have never been able to present themselves as a more possible alternative government than they do today.
The father has gone down in history for being the father of development, especially where the Malay community was concerned. The son may be tempted to champion Malayness at a time when racialism is being criticized, also by Malay leaders, and not for ideological reasons, but for being inefficacious and divisive. The role Umno has played in the history of Malaysia is great indeed. It orchestrated the gaining of independence for the country, it managed to secure the Malay agenda to an impressive level, and it managed to develop its economy to a level admired internationally.
In the process of changing the country, it evolved in ways that has left it with less proportionate support than ever before. It holds only 36 per cent of Parliament's seats today. In its heyday, it held a two-third majority all by itself. Malaysian society has been developing in one direction and Umno in another. Can the party under Najib make a quantum leap back into decisive relevance, or will it illadvisedly try to change society to suit itself? The choices are not as many as its future leaders may think. The writer is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is “March 8: Eclipsing May 13” (with Johan Saravanamuttu and Lee Hock Guan,
ISEAS).
