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Flu outbreak may have peaked, but danger remains

makapaaa

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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published May 4, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>FLU OUTBREAK
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Flu outbreak may have peaked, but danger remains
US officials say real test will come during winter influenza season

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(WASHINGTON) Top US officials yesterday saw grounds for cautious optimism that the A (H1N1) flu outbreak may have peaked - but stressed that the winter influenza season would pose the real test in a few months.

Secretary for Health and Human Services Kathleen Sibelius said efforts to develop a vaccine for the A (H1N1) strain of flu should not undermine an updated inoculation against the seasonal strain that strikes every year.
Both vaccines were being developed 'simultaneously', she said on the Fox News Sunday programme, but scientists were yet to decide if full-scale production of an H1N1 vaccine would prove necessary.
'One of the things that we know is that even if this current situation seems to be lessening, if we are cautiously optimistic, we really don't know what's going to happen when real flu season hits (together) with H1N1 virus.
'What we know is seasonal flu year in and year out affects millions of Americans - about 200,000 people end up in the hospital and 36,000 people die,' she said. 'So production of that vaccine is critical to making sure that we don't have increased deaths associated with seasonal flu.'
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed 160 cases of the flu in 21 US states. There has been only one death, that of a Mexican toddler in Texas.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>'Here we're seeing encouraging signs that this virus so far is not looking more severe than a strain we would see during seasonal flu,' acting CDC director Richard Besser said on the Fox programme.
Mexico's flu outbreak appeared to be easing with a fall in serious cases, the government said, but world health officials warned that the unpredictable virus could still become a pandemic.
'Each day there are fewer serious cases and the mortality has been decreasing,' Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told a news conference in Mexico City, where millions were heeding government advice to stay at home.
Of the more than 100 suspected deaths from the new A (H1N1) virus that emerged in Mexico, 19 have been confirmed, Mr Cordova said. Mexico had scaled back from its original estimate of 176 suspected deaths.
However, new cases of the virus were still being tracked across the world.
In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said the A (H1N1) influenza had not spread in a sustained way outside North America, as required before the pandemic alert is raised to its highest level. But it said that would probably happen soon.
'I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread,' Michael Ryan, WHO director of global alert and response, said on Saturday.
Asia reported no new confirmed cases yesterday, indicating the virus's spread may be slowing, but 350 people remained under quarantine in a Hong Kong hotel as a precaution.
Hong Kong and South Korea each confirmed one case of the virus earlier in the weekend - the first on the continent. Both cases were in people who had recently arrived from Mexico. Authorities in South Korea are still testing others who may have the virus.
Hong Kong sealed Metropark Hotel, where a sickened Mexican tourist had stayed, trapping 350 guests and employees inside. The 25-year-old man arrived in the territory on Thursday afternoon after a stopover in Shanghai. He was in stable condition yesterday. Thomas Tsang, controller of Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection, said all those at the hotel were healthy. - AFP, Reuters, AP

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