<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published April 30, 2009
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>SWINE FLU
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Fear is main driver of crisis for business sector
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(PARIS) Airlines and the bacon business on one side and viral treatments and rubber gloves on the other are among sectors in the front line of economic shocks from the swine flu alert.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>The fear factor: Trade in pork is in the firing line (above), whereas makers of face masks (nex) can expect a huge surge in demand </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Any activity connected to international travel and tourism is seen as potentially most-exposed to a fall in traffic.
A strong warning came from Australia where tourism expert Olivia Worth said that the crisis had created a 'perfect storm' for Australian tourism.
But fear rather than fact is hitting some sectors while boosting others, such as drug companies, analysts say.
So far.
The main reference point for judging economic damage from global swine flu is the bird flu crisis about four years ago, which sharply reduced retail consumption in Asia where the outbreak was concentrated.
By yesterday, flu fever on financial markets was cooling as analysts stressed that the greatest factor is fear itself.
Barclays Capital in London said that a key lesson of the avian flu crisis in Asia, known as Sars which began in 2003, was that 'fear and panic subsided quickly once the disease was under control, and the affected economies rebounded rapidly'. The short-lived economic impact hit mainly demand, 'particularly local consumption and tourism in the afflicted economies'.
They stressed: 'Sars was a crisis of fear.' People avoided crowded places.
'Restaurants, shops, cinemas and other entertainment venues were deserted. Schools were closed for weeks . . . There was direct and immediate curtailment in spending and economic activity.'
But initial concern that international trade in goods, and foreign investment, would be hit faded as quickly as the outbreaks were contained.
However, Barclays analyst Julian Callow noted that the World Bank estimates that a 'mild' flu epidemic defined as 1.4 million deaths would cut world output in the first year by 0.7 per cent, a 'moderate' pandemic of 14.2 million deaths by 2 per cent and a 'severe' pandemic of 71.1 million deaths by 4.8 per cent.
In Singapore, Societe Generale bank commented that 'investors have moved to trim risk averse positions', estimating that 'economic threats as a result of swine flu are, for now, adequately priced'.
In New York, Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com said that recent reactions suggested 'the market respects the swine flu scare, but that it isn't fully intimidated by it, given past experiences'.
Business and leisure travellers are expected to reconsider trips, in some cases on official advice or because travel to Mexico, for example, is being suspended by some operators.
But trade in pork is also in the firing line. The United States says that nine countries have banned to some degree the import of US pork, or even other meat.
Russia has also banned imported pork from several countries in central and Latin America.
Clearly concerned about the economic damage, Washington has protested that such measures are mistaken, arguing that the human version of the virus is spread only by people not by meat.
'It is perfectly safe to consume pork products from America,' US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack insisted.
In Norway, a rush towards consumption of fish has driven up shares in companies which farm salmon.
Among leading international gainers from the crisis are some bonds, the US dollar and yen, considered as defences in times of uncertainty, particularly the yen since Japan is seen as distant and relatively unconnected to the source in Mexico.
Some leading drug companies could benefit from sales of existing anti-flu viral treatments, and from any new vaccine which is developed.
The World Health Organization says that four 'reference' laboratories are working on a vaccine, and Novartis says it is involved.
A leading gainer already is Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche, maker of Tamiflu, which was in great demand during the bird flu crisis. GlaxoSmithKline is trying to boost production of its drug, Relenza.
In Japan, shares in Chugai Pharmaceutical, which sells Tamiflu locally have risen as have shares in Green Cross in Seoul, which is developing a vaccine for avian flu.
Makers of rubber gloves and face masks can also expect a huge surge in demand, as witnessed in Hong Kong where long queues have formed outside chemists. In Malaysia, shares in a firm called Top Glove have jumped as has stock in the Latex rubber group.
Airlines are evidently the worst affected sector of business so far. The shares of several carriers have fallen sharply since the weekend.
Because of this and concerns about the wider economic effects of flu on economic activity, the price of oil has fallen.
Resigned irony seemed the best defence of Hong Kong shopper Heather Wong as she bought pork ribs while recalling previous chicken and beef scares.
'What will be left for us to eat?' she wondered. 'We'd have to go vegetarian.'
But for the outspoken head of European budget airline Ryanair, Michael O'Leary, who sometimes speaks tongue-in-cheek, fear is the problem internationally.
The virus was a 'tragedy' for people in the 'slums' of Mexico or Asia, but for most people travelling in comfort, throat lozengers 'will do the job', he suggested. -- AFP
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>SWINE FLU
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Fear is main driver of crisis for business sector
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>(PARIS) Airlines and the bacon business on one side and viral treatments and rubber gloves on the other are among sectors in the front line of economic shocks from the swine flu alert.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>The fear factor: Trade in pork is in the firing line (above), whereas makers of face masks (nex) can expect a huge surge in demand </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Any activity connected to international travel and tourism is seen as potentially most-exposed to a fall in traffic.A strong warning came from Australia where tourism expert Olivia Worth said that the crisis had created a 'perfect storm' for Australian tourism.
But fear rather than fact is hitting some sectors while boosting others, such as drug companies, analysts say.
So far.
The main reference point for judging economic damage from global swine flu is the bird flu crisis about four years ago, which sharply reduced retail consumption in Asia where the outbreak was concentrated.
By yesterday, flu fever on financial markets was cooling as analysts stressed that the greatest factor is fear itself.
Barclays Capital in London said that a key lesson of the avian flu crisis in Asia, known as Sars which began in 2003, was that 'fear and panic subsided quickly once the disease was under control, and the affected economies rebounded rapidly'. The short-lived economic impact hit mainly demand, 'particularly local consumption and tourism in the afflicted economies'.
They stressed: 'Sars was a crisis of fear.' People avoided crowded places.
'Restaurants, shops, cinemas and other entertainment venues were deserted. Schools were closed for weeks . . . There was direct and immediate curtailment in spending and economic activity.'
But initial concern that international trade in goods, and foreign investment, would be hit faded as quickly as the outbreaks were contained.
However, Barclays analyst Julian Callow noted that the World Bank estimates that a 'mild' flu epidemic defined as 1.4 million deaths would cut world output in the first year by 0.7 per cent, a 'moderate' pandemic of 14.2 million deaths by 2 per cent and a 'severe' pandemic of 71.1 million deaths by 4.8 per cent.
In Singapore, Societe Generale bank commented that 'investors have moved to trim risk averse positions', estimating that 'economic threats as a result of swine flu are, for now, adequately priced'.
In New York, Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com said that recent reactions suggested 'the market respects the swine flu scare, but that it isn't fully intimidated by it, given past experiences'.
Business and leisure travellers are expected to reconsider trips, in some cases on official advice or because travel to Mexico, for example, is being suspended by some operators.
But trade in pork is also in the firing line. The United States says that nine countries have banned to some degree the import of US pork, or even other meat.
Russia has also banned imported pork from several countries in central and Latin America.
Clearly concerned about the economic damage, Washington has protested that such measures are mistaken, arguing that the human version of the virus is spread only by people not by meat.
'It is perfectly safe to consume pork products from America,' US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack insisted.
In Norway, a rush towards consumption of fish has driven up shares in companies which farm salmon.
Among leading international gainers from the crisis are some bonds, the US dollar and yen, considered as defences in times of uncertainty, particularly the yen since Japan is seen as distant and relatively unconnected to the source in Mexico.
Some leading drug companies could benefit from sales of existing anti-flu viral treatments, and from any new vaccine which is developed.
The World Health Organization says that four 'reference' laboratories are working on a vaccine, and Novartis says it is involved.
A leading gainer already is Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche, maker of Tamiflu, which was in great demand during the bird flu crisis. GlaxoSmithKline is trying to boost production of its drug, Relenza.
In Japan, shares in Chugai Pharmaceutical, which sells Tamiflu locally have risen as have shares in Green Cross in Seoul, which is developing a vaccine for avian flu.
Makers of rubber gloves and face masks can also expect a huge surge in demand, as witnessed in Hong Kong where long queues have formed outside chemists. In Malaysia, shares in a firm called Top Glove have jumped as has stock in the Latex rubber group.
Airlines are evidently the worst affected sector of business so far. The shares of several carriers have fallen sharply since the weekend.
Because of this and concerns about the wider economic effects of flu on economic activity, the price of oil has fallen.
Resigned irony seemed the best defence of Hong Kong shopper Heather Wong as she bought pork ribs while recalling previous chicken and beef scares.
'What will be left for us to eat?' she wondered. 'We'd have to go vegetarian.'
But for the outspoken head of European budget airline Ryanair, Michael O'Leary, who sometimes speaks tongue-in-cheek, fear is the problem internationally.
The virus was a 'tragedy' for people in the 'slums' of Mexico or Asia, but for most people travelling in comfort, throat lozengers 'will do the job', he suggested. -- AFP
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