Ahmadinejad Faces Struggle for New Term in Election (Update1)
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By Ladane Nasseri and Henry Meyer
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iranians began voting today in an election that pits President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against challengers who claim he’s hurt the economy and fueled tension with the West.
Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose supporters have been handing out mock economic charts drawn in a childish scrawl to ridicule the government’s performance, is seen by analysts as posing the greatest threat to the president. Ahmadinejad, who is seeking a second term, has accused the Mousavi campaign of “psychological warfare.”
“The presidential election will be close, and the momentum has shifted toward Mousavi,” said Cliff Kupchan, a senior analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “A Mousavi victory would make a deal on the nuclear issue over the next 12 months more likely.”
Mousavi and other candidates have accused Ahmadinejad of wasting record oil revenue on a subsidy system that has boosted inflation, while unemployment has remained high. They say his confrontational stance over Iran’s nuclear program is thwarting a deal with President Barack Obama to assuage concern that Iran is seeking atomic weapons.
In an address on state television on June 10 to answer his critics, Ahmadinejad reeled off a list of his achievements, including what he said was Iran’s progress in nuclear and aerospace technology.
The other candidates “are losing the race and they want to create tension,” he said.
Results Tomorrow
Polling opened at 8 a.m. local time and closes at 6 p.m. First results will come in early tomorrow with a near-complete vote count expected by evening.
Mousavi led Ahmadinejad in an opinion poll conducted only in 10 major cities, state-run Press TV reported on May 26. Mousavi had about 38 percent against Ahmadinejad’s 34 percent. No margin of error was given and respondents weren’t asked about other candidates.
A win by Mousavi, who steered the economy through most of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war when he was premier, may lead to a more disciplined economic policy and Iran accepting more international oversight of its nuclear activities, said Farideh Farhi, an expert on Iranian politics at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.
An Ahmadinejad victory would make nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and its European allies “more difficult and more unpredictable,” Farhi said. Iran’s economy would likely continue to suffer from high inflation and joblessness, she said.
Inflation and Unemployment
Inflation was 15.5 percent in April, according to the Iranian central bank, while unemployment was 10.5 percent in February, the most recent month available.
Mousavi, 67, is counting on support from young people, the middle-class and women.
Ahmadinejad, 52, a former mayor of Tehran, who expanded a national subsidy system that keeps bread prices at 20 cents a loaf and gasoline at 38 cents a gallon, is popular among working-class voters.
Also running is former parliamentary Speaker Mehdi Karrubi, 71, who favors easing tensions with the U.S. and allowing more social and political freedoms. Former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezai, 54, who appeals to many of the same voters Ahmadinejad is courting, is another candidate.
A candidate needs to win more than 50 percent of the vote to clinch a first-round victory. If no one does so, the contest will go to a run-off between the two top-placed candidates on June 19. Mousavi and Karrubi have hinted that in any second round their supporters will unite behind whoever gets more votes.
First-Round ‘Struggle’
“Ahmadinejad is really going to struggle to win in the first round,” said Ali M. Pedram, an Iran expert at Durham University in the U.K. “We could see the biggest turnout ever in Iran’s history.”
At an evening rally in Tehran on June 8, a “green chain” of Mousavi supporters extended from northern Tehran to the south of the city along the capital’s longest avenue, Valiasr.
“If we don’t vote nothing will change,” said Yahya Al Khansa, a musician. “I am 27 and I don’t want to live the best years of my life under this president.”
Turnout will be critical. At the last election in 2005, many young people didn’t vote because they were disillusioned after eight years under former President Mohammad Khatami. His efforts to ease political and social restrictions and reach out to the West were blocked by institutions overseen by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all affairs of state.
Rich and Young
Ahmadinejad has said that former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he defeated in 2005 elections by presenting himself as a “man of the people,” was the mastermind behind Mousavi’s campaign. This led Rafsanjani, who remains an influential rival of Ahmadinejad, to write a letter to Khamenei complaining of personal accusations and urging Khamenei to ensure “national unity.”
Supporters of Ahmadinejad such as Pari Heydari, 42, a divorcee with two children who works as an office cleaner in Tehran, remain wary of Mousavi because of his appeal to higher- income voters.
“I’ve listened to his speeches but he hasn’t said anything in relation to the poor,” Heydari said. “All his supporters are rich and young.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at [email protected]; Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected].
Last Updated: June 11, 2009 23:42 EDT
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Ladane Nasseri and Henry Meyer
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iranians began voting today in an election that pits President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against challengers who claim he’s hurt the economy and fueled tension with the West.
Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose supporters have been handing out mock economic charts drawn in a childish scrawl to ridicule the government’s performance, is seen by analysts as posing the greatest threat to the president. Ahmadinejad, who is seeking a second term, has accused the Mousavi campaign of “psychological warfare.”
“The presidential election will be close, and the momentum has shifted toward Mousavi,” said Cliff Kupchan, a senior analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “A Mousavi victory would make a deal on the nuclear issue over the next 12 months more likely.”
Mousavi and other candidates have accused Ahmadinejad of wasting record oil revenue on a subsidy system that has boosted inflation, while unemployment has remained high. They say his confrontational stance over Iran’s nuclear program is thwarting a deal with President Barack Obama to assuage concern that Iran is seeking atomic weapons.
In an address on state television on June 10 to answer his critics, Ahmadinejad reeled off a list of his achievements, including what he said was Iran’s progress in nuclear and aerospace technology.
The other candidates “are losing the race and they want to create tension,” he said.
Results Tomorrow
Polling opened at 8 a.m. local time and closes at 6 p.m. First results will come in early tomorrow with a near-complete vote count expected by evening.
Mousavi led Ahmadinejad in an opinion poll conducted only in 10 major cities, state-run Press TV reported on May 26. Mousavi had about 38 percent against Ahmadinejad’s 34 percent. No margin of error was given and respondents weren’t asked about other candidates.
A win by Mousavi, who steered the economy through most of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war when he was premier, may lead to a more disciplined economic policy and Iran accepting more international oversight of its nuclear activities, said Farideh Farhi, an expert on Iranian politics at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.
An Ahmadinejad victory would make nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and its European allies “more difficult and more unpredictable,” Farhi said. Iran’s economy would likely continue to suffer from high inflation and joblessness, she said.
Inflation and Unemployment
Inflation was 15.5 percent in April, according to the Iranian central bank, while unemployment was 10.5 percent in February, the most recent month available.
Mousavi, 67, is counting on support from young people, the middle-class and women.
Ahmadinejad, 52, a former mayor of Tehran, who expanded a national subsidy system that keeps bread prices at 20 cents a loaf and gasoline at 38 cents a gallon, is popular among working-class voters.
Also running is former parliamentary Speaker Mehdi Karrubi, 71, who favors easing tensions with the U.S. and allowing more social and political freedoms. Former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezai, 54, who appeals to many of the same voters Ahmadinejad is courting, is another candidate.
A candidate needs to win more than 50 percent of the vote to clinch a first-round victory. If no one does so, the contest will go to a run-off between the two top-placed candidates on June 19. Mousavi and Karrubi have hinted that in any second round their supporters will unite behind whoever gets more votes.
First-Round ‘Struggle’
“Ahmadinejad is really going to struggle to win in the first round,” said Ali M. Pedram, an Iran expert at Durham University in the U.K. “We could see the biggest turnout ever in Iran’s history.”
At an evening rally in Tehran on June 8, a “green chain” of Mousavi supporters extended from northern Tehran to the south of the city along the capital’s longest avenue, Valiasr.
“If we don’t vote nothing will change,” said Yahya Al Khansa, a musician. “I am 27 and I don’t want to live the best years of my life under this president.”
Turnout will be critical. At the last election in 2005, many young people didn’t vote because they were disillusioned after eight years under former President Mohammad Khatami. His efforts to ease political and social restrictions and reach out to the West were blocked by institutions overseen by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all affairs of state.
Rich and Young
Ahmadinejad has said that former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he defeated in 2005 elections by presenting himself as a “man of the people,” was the mastermind behind Mousavi’s campaign. This led Rafsanjani, who remains an influential rival of Ahmadinejad, to write a letter to Khamenei complaining of personal accusations and urging Khamenei to ensure “national unity.”
Supporters of Ahmadinejad such as Pari Heydari, 42, a divorcee with two children who works as an office cleaner in Tehran, remain wary of Mousavi because of his appeal to higher- income voters.
“I’ve listened to his speeches but he hasn’t said anything in relation to the poor,” Heydari said. “All his supporters are rich and young.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at [email protected]; Henry Meyer in Dubai at [email protected].
Last Updated: June 11, 2009 23:42 EDT
