Vote Swing : 8-11% against PAP.
Opposition : 41-44% of votes.
PAP : 55-59%.
PAP can adjust every GRC to withstand 14% vote swing with 3% buffer in the worse case of 11% vote swing. All except for Aljunied.
Surprises are more likely to come from SMCs.
My prediction is Opposition retain Hougang for sure and Potong Pasir with 70% chance.
Aljunied is likely to go to WP...because it needs only a 6% vote swing.
1 more SMC should go opposition.
Total for opposition 1 GRC, 2-3 SMC.
Opposition : 41-44% of votes.
PAP : 55-59%.
PAP can adjust every GRC to withstand 14% vote swing with 3% buffer in the worse case of 11% vote swing. All except for Aljunied.
Surprises are more likely to come from SMCs.
My prediction is Opposition retain Hougang for sure and Potong Pasir with 70% chance.
Aljunied is likely to go to WP...because it needs only a 6% vote swing.
1 more SMC should go opposition.
Total for opposition 1 GRC, 2-3 SMC.