Entire worthless US Real Estate value less then just Beijing or Tokyo

[minionstar]

During the peak of Japanese real estate bubble, the total cost of Tokyo was worth higher than real estate cost of whole USA. Meaning selling whole USA and they will still not afford to buy up just Tokyo.

Even though Beijing govt had heavy hand to chop the real estate price of prime properties, it is still a record average figure RMB$8000/sqm in 2010, and the total being $130 trillion. While GDP of USA is 95 trillion, meaning the whole year gross work of entire USA can not even afford to buy Beijing.



http://news.xinhuanet.com/house/2011-01/26/c_121024150.htm

"北京地价能买下美国"的隐喻和警示
2011年01月26日 08:25:39 　来源： 广州日报 【字号 大小】【留言】【打印】【关闭】

　　在日本房地产泡沫化高峰时期，仅东京的土地总市值就可以“买下”整个美国。如今，如果把北京的土地全部卖掉，同样可以制造出超过美国一年的 GDP的财富。据学者估算，2010年美国GDP总量预计为95万亿元，而2010年北京平均地价约8000元/平方米，按此计算，北京土地总市值高达 130万亿元。这意味着用北京的地价，“买下美国”可谓绰绰有余。（1月25日《中国经济周刊》）

　　尽管这只是一种夸张化、形象化的比喻，但它所传递的信号让人震惊，让人不得不重新去打量中国楼市泡沫化程度。据有关方面预测，中国GDP大概到 2030年才有可能超过美国。现在，假如把北京土地卖掉，就已经超过了美国GDP总量。这一“买卖”最大的讽刺是，按照现有的地价水平，不需要经济转型结构调整，只要让房地产继续保持“蓬勃”发展势头，中国GDP超过美国估计很快就能实现了，仅靠房地产就能让中国经济坐上头把交椅。

　　但截至目前没有一个经济体单纯依靠房地产能让经济蓬勃发展。即使房地产曾让某些国家获得好处，但都是短暂的好处换来了长久的疼痛。比如，日本就曾因为房地产泡沫破裂导致经济停滞10年之久，而2010年爱尔兰、西班牙债务危机的背后，都有房地产泡沫的影子。我们不得不有所警惕。

　　中国房地产存在泡沫几乎是社会共识，去年年底中国社科院披露的城市房地产泡沫榜进一步证实了泡沫在加剧。在我看来，“卖掉北京能买下美国”这种夸张说法告诉我们，地价疯狂上涨，不但折射出整个房地产的健康状况，更折射出我们的地方经济也存在一定泡沫。因为卖地、土地开发很容易做大地方的GDP，地方的房地产有泡沫，地方GDP必然也有一定泡沫。当一线城市的房地产泡沫向二、三线城市蔓延时，中国经济前景就让人产生一些忧虑。

　　好在房产税、资源税已经提上日程，这对改变土地财政、抑制房产泡沫有积极作用。不过，我们仍然要对中国房产泡沫做最坏的想象。日本房地产泡沫破裂引发的金融危机、生产危机、消费危机乃至社会危机，不能只当成日本的痛苦记忆，我们也要吸取教训。这是“卖掉北京能买下美国”对我们的提醒。

　　房地产泡沫一旦破裂，没有赢家。而要抑制房地产泡沫，首先要拿地价、地王开刀，无论是什么原因引发的泡沫都要动大手术。其次，宏观调控必要时应该从遏制房价过快上涨升级为抑制房地产泡沫，让地方政府重视调控，同时警示房地产投资投机。

 

[singveld]

i think someone done their sum wrong.

let say there are 1 million cow in the whole world. Let just say 1 cow cost 1 dollar. Does that mean if you have 1 millions dollars, you can buy all the cow in the world.

Hell no, when the supply drop, the price will go up the roof, so saying Beijing and Tokyo value is higher than entire USA is bullshit.

Also only selected area of the city are very high, some slum cost are very low.

 

[minionstar]

i think someone done their sum wrong.

let say there are 1 million cow in the whole world. Let just say 1 cow cost 1 dollar. Does that mean if you have 1 millions dollars, you can buy all the cow in the world.

Hell no, when the supply drop, the price will go up the roof, so saying Beijing and Tokyo value is higher than entire USA is bullshit.

Also only selected area of the city are very high, some slum cost are very low.

This is not a buy sell transaction but a valuation comparison.

 

[QXD]

I think he should compare apples to apples.

 

[longbow]

Newspaper just want to print something sensational lah. Like saying price of land for condo in Singapore is S$2000psf, then multiply by all the land in Singapore and they come up with huge figure.

 

[QXD]

You're right. Also very sad to see when a sinkie swallows news out of China like this hook, line and sinker.

Its ignoramuses like these that would make PAP very proud to own.

 

[minibond]

US real estates are like shit falling into toilet holes!

Making loud BONG sounds!

http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/2011/01/25/u-s-housing-prices-likely-to-keep-on-dropping/


U.S. housing prices likely to keep on dropping
Jan 25, 2011 16:05 EST

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u.s. housing

By Martin Hutchinson
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

U.S. house prices are down 31 percent from their peak. But they may have plenty further to fall. The 1993 low for the Case-Shiller 10-city index was almost another third below the current level in real terms. Lenders had better hope that inflation outpaces rising interest rates, lessening future declines.

The bottom of the last housing recession was in October 1993. At that time, the Case-Shiller 10-city index had declined a mere 8 percent from its peak in March 1990, and substantial price falls had occurred only in Southern California. The overall economy was emerging from a recession that was shallower than the one just experienced. The unemployment rate, for example, topped out at 7.8 percent then, against the recent high of 10.1 percent. However, interest rates were higher. The 30-year mortgage rate in October 1993 was 6.8 percent compared with 4.3 percent in November 2010.

Real incomes have risen about 15 percent since 1993, but because of the deeper downturn just experienced, it’s feasible that inflation-adjusted house prices could decline close to their 1993 lows — particularly if mortgage interest rates rise to where they were then. If that happened, it would mean house prices falling a further 27 percent. Among the metropolitan areas included in the Case-Shiller data, the pain would be worst in Boston, New York and Los Angeles.

This scenario doesn’t, however, necessarily give home buyers a reason to delay a purchase. If mortgage rates rise and house prices decline as outlined, the monthly payments on a 30-year mortgage to buy a given property would be only 4 percent lower than today. The effect on banks’ mortgage portfolios, by contrast, would be severe. High rates of foreclosure in the worst affected areas could drive house prices down even further.

Inflation may come to the rescue. If consumer prices overall rise by 20 percent over the next, say, five years, a mere 12 percent fall in house prices would bring them down to the inflation-adjusted low of 1993. For lenders, the future health of their portfolios may depend on the result of the race between inflation and interest rates.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/25/realestate-religion

Moneylenders are back in the temple: US churches face foreclosure crisis

Wave of foreclosures has hit nearly 200 US churches in two years, with more to come

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* Dominic Rushe in New York
* guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 25 January 2011 19.07 GMT
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79140480 Jesse Jackson holds a rally against repossessions in 2008. He has since identified 200 churches in Atlanta also facing the prospect of foreclosure Photograph: Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images

The house of God has become the latest victim of the property crunch, according to a survey. Nearly 200 US churches have had their properties seized by lenders since 2008 – compared to eight in the two previous years – and more are to come.

Religious leaders were just as swept up by the property boom and bust as their parishioners, according to a survey by CoStar Group.

During the years of feast religious leaders took advantage of easy credit to build bigger churches and cater to bigger, richer congregations. Now the years of famine mean smaller, poorer congregations but still facing the bills for the bigger houses of worship they built.

Foreclosure proceedings against US churches have more than tripled since 2007, when the recession took hold. All religious denominations have suffered as donations have declined. But the financial crisis has hit independent churches hardest because they lack well funded governing bodies capable of bailing them out.

Last year Ebenezer AME, one of the biggest churches in the US, with a congregation of 10,000, ran into trouble with its lenders. Banks demanded the church cut expenses as it struggled to make its mortgage payments.

An investigation by a Memphis, Tennessee, television station found hundreds of churches in the city fighting foreclosure. There are 200 churches in Atlanta alone facing foreclosure, according to Reverend Jesse Jackson, founder of civil rights organisation Rainbow/Push.

Jackson said African American and Latino communities had been hit particularly hard: "It's communities not just churches that are in foreclosure. We have paid more for less, churches and their members are being dragged down by debt," he said. "The church is the centre of our community."

Chris Macke, analyst at CoStar, said the boom in foreclosures was due to the financial squeeze on parishioners and overly aggressive projections of future income from churches.

Churches had fallen victim to "recency bias," he said. "Whatever happened most recently is what will happen in perpetuity, which is ironic considering that churches deal in issues of perpetuity," he said.

 

[minibond]

After shit fall into toilet holes you can only flush them down.

 

[ponzii]

Ha what a good laugh. Beijing/China has been called the "world's largest real estate bubble" World Famous Jim Chanos has called it "Dubai 1000X worse".

And Japan? Japan has been paying the cost of its bubble popping for 20 years now and prices there are still flat. China's collapse will make the Spanish, UK, Irish, American, etc bubble collapse look like a picnic.

Give me cheap huge American houses while poor people in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Japan have to buy tiny concrete boxes.

Who wins here? The Americans.

 

[simpsons]

What is good about high estate price? It only means the land is scarce and ppl want to cram into small area.

 

[singveld]

This is not a buy sell transaction but a valuation comparison.

well it is false valuation. well your word not mine, you said entire worthless us real estate.

 

[Dreamer1]

I still remember vividly the Wall Street Journal report in 1989,a top executive of a top Japanese MNC,was having lunch with a journalist,he took out an envelop,and did back of envelop calculation.TOKYO could buy up USA,he declared.
His timing not so good,as Japan collapsed soon after,and this CEO was fired from the top job & the top Japanese MNC went down ever since.

Nikkei 225 was 39,000 around 1989,it was 10,402.00 (26.01.2011)yesterday!

 

[Watchman]

At the end of all the fallen in USA .
USA still richer than everyone in the world .

Who on earth can evade payment in loans
owned and still carry on living like nothing is wrong ?

Something is very wrong when old folks
here worked for $5 an hour .

 

[Dreamer1]

USA is finished financially.

May be President Obama can turn it around but it is very difficult.

The most ridiculous is that the chap I respect most is the one who sang-"Golden period here it comes!"

Consolidation is that he stopped singing ever since he found out the truth!

There are still many who CMI-cause they keep singing non-stop GOLDEN PERIOD IT IS HERE!

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

i think someone done their sum wrong.

let say there are 1 million cow in the whole world. Let just say 1 cow cost 1 dollar. Does that mean if you have 1 millions dollars, you can buy all the cow in the world.

Hell no, when the supply drop, the price will go up the roof, so saying Beijing and Tokyo value is higher than entire USA is bullshit.

Also only selected area of the city are very high, some slum cost are very low.

This thread's original post is sheer rubbish. Utter crap.
And the guy who posted it...his own interpretation is... well....no comments !
.

 

[singveld]

This thread's original post is sheer rubbish. Utter crap.
And the guy who posted it...his own interpretation is... well....no comments !
.

your english too deep, i dun understand.

 

[Dreamer1]

The article as printed in 广州日报(26.1.2011) has warned about property bubbles in PRC,it is a sensible one!

 

[Think_PAP]

I am very sure that entire Singapore's real estate value including HDBs can buy LA or NY already. This is because American properties' values are becoming Karangunee prices.