Economy and growth-Era of shrinkage is here.

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Over the last few years the world was feeding off the US consumer and his paper credit lines offered by the financial and banking system.

Up to 40% of the American liquidity growth came from thin air..created by irresponsible Wall street financial institutions and banks who leveraged extensively and manufactured money out of thin air.

And it was this money that fueled the world trade. It was this money that powered China's export industry and growth and resulting in that country's huge reserves.

All that 'money out of thin air' has ended with a bang and a bust. All that money has just evaporated.

The Obama administration has drawn up tough new rules and regulations aimed at preventing the creation of such thin air liquidity. Even the massive credit card industry has been put under tough new regulations.

The bottom line is simple: There will not be the same situation like before, where the world was flush with 'apparent' money, and their subsequent purchasing influence.

The main country that will feel this limitations is China and its export led economy. China will start to see exports falling month on month, its reserves shrink and then used up to stimulate its internal economy. Latest figures show China reserves has already gone down for month of March 2009 while its exports have fallen dramatically, month after month.

Will world prices of commodities , trading volumes, stock markets and the like return to old levels.?...absolutely not. Maybe a few years down the road. From now on, there will not be that kind of hot air liquidity going around.

The era of economic shrinkage has arrived.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

China's exports fall for fifth straight month.
11 April 2009 - Yahoo News

BEIJING (AFP) - - China's vital exports fell 17.1 percent in March, their fifth straight monthly decline, the government said on Friday, but the drop was not as sharp as the previous month.

The customs bureau data could provide hope that the impact of the world financial crisis on China's key export sector may be easing, but it was still too early to make a firm assessment, analysts said.

"It certainly shows that exports remained weak. But the slowing pace is narrowing, which is a relatively positive sign at the moment," said Jason Xu, an economist with China International Capital Corporation in Beijing.

"It's hard to say it signals a trend as uncertainties remain ahead."

March's decline in exports, which totalled 90.29 billion dollars, followed a miserable February that saw a 25.7 percent year-on-year dive -- the worst slump in more than a decade.

Imports in March plunged 25.1 percent from a year earlier to 71.73 billion dollars, the customs bureau said

This led to a 41.2 percent year-on-year rise to 18.56 billion dollars for Beijing's diplomatically sensitive trade surplus, according to the bureau.

China's massive export machine has been humbled since late last year as the world financial crisis hit overseas demand for products made on what has become known as "the world's factory floor".

The slowdown has led to the closure of thousands of exporting factories in the country's southern and eastern manufacturing heartlands.

At least 25 million migrant workers from China's poor rural areas who normally find jobs in such factories are now unemployed, according to government data released last month.

Chinese authorities in November unveiled an unprecedented four trillion yuan (580 billion dollar) stimulus package to combat the crisis, and economists have said this has had some impact.

Xu also pointed to some positive overseas factors.

"Currently consumption data in the United States is showing some positive signs, which I think will probably give some support for (China's) exports in the short run," he said.

But exporters are not out of the woods yet, said Wang Hu, an analyst with Guotai Jun'an Securities in Shanghai.

"Although a further drop in China's exports looks unlikely, neither is it likely that exports will recover in the short term," he said.

Wang added that his firm projects export growth will not return to positive territory before 2010.

China has taken a number of steps to support exports, such as raising export tax rebates and providing trade financing to hard-hit industries.

Ultimately, there is little else China's leaders can do other than wait for foreign demand to revive, said Xu.

"I don't think there is much large room for further export policies because... it all depends on foreign demand," he said.

 

[jw5]

The ministers' salaries should also be shrunk.