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Dotard's DIA to Taiwan Lesbian Tsai: Don't Fall Asleep! You may wake up in China! Xi cannibalize you over night! 蔡大姐你千万别合眼睡着哦! 当你再开眼醒过来也许已经是在中华人民共和国台湾省!
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-01-16/doc-ihqhqcis6631019.shtml
美发布2019中国军力报告：全面攻台行动已成为可能
美发布2019中国军力报告：全面攻台行动已成为可能
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美国国防情报局发《中国军力报告》：解放军正意识到自己实力
[文/观察者网 堵开源]美《防务新闻》16日报道，美国国防情报局（DIA）推出的2019年《中国军事力量》报告称，最让这个老牌情报机构担心的是，中国人民解放军近年来的长足进步已经接近到了一个新的关键点，即其成员可能已经有足够的信心，认为自己能够在任何领域战胜对手。该报告称，长期来看，这对于美军将是一个坏消息——而对于台湾来说尤其如此。
DIA报告认为，中国领导层对于自身实力的信心目前还落后于其实际能力，但一个转折点可能正在到来
美国国防情报局（DIA）是美国国防部下属情报机构，成立于1961年，其在军事情报领域比中央情报局等机构更加专业
据报道，在DIA发布2019版《中国军事力量》报告前，一位资深的国防情报官员对记者说，北京可能已经建立足够的信心，认为武力解放台湾是完全可行的，这是这份报告中“最令人担忧的”结论之一。
“我们最大的担忧是他们可能已经达到了这样一个转折点，即解放军领导层有底气报告说，他们对自己的实力有完全的信心。我们已经知道在这之前，他们通常认为自己是一支发展中的，较弱的力量，”这名官员说。
“大量的新技术正在成型，在他们认识到自己军事力量效能到底有多高之后，在他们完全熟练掌握手中的新能力之后，我们担心，他们的决策层内部会达到这样一个转折点，他们可能会更倾向于在局部冲突中使用军事力量。”这名官员说。
这份报告是DIA首次发表关于中国军力的公开报告，这位官员表示，和五角大楼每年提交给国会的《中国军力报告》不同之处在于，这份报告是没有“保密版”的，这两份报告在内容和发布渠道上都是完全不同的。
据这份报告，DIA认为，中国军事现代化并不是以全球大规模冲突为主要准备方向，而是准备面对其周边的挑战，这意味着一场潜在的局部战争。
该文认为，解放军近年来开展的大规模实战化训练让解放军日益熟练掌握先进的技术能力，同时也大大增强了在各个领域夺取胜利的信心
虽然中国官宣经常以参加朱日和演习的红军部队失利为例来发出：“我们距离实战还有多远？”的督促，但在同样经常组织条件极其严苛的实战演练的美军看来，这样的演习，对于参演部队来说，是越打越有信心
报告称，“在北京关于‘战略机遇期’的表述可以看出，随着中国信心和实力的日益成长，（美国）领导层将面对一个事实，即中国在全球事务中越来越渴望发挥影响力，而这最终这可能与美国的利益发生冲突。”
对于中国领导层来说，收复台湾是其长期目标，这并不是秘密。DIA指出，中国军事现代化迄今为止都是以台湾为主要目标的，尤其是在短程导弹技术上的投入，这在其他区域冲突中基本用不上。
到目前为止，台湾之所以仍然“安全”，是因为解放军自己此前并不认为他们在训练、理论、战备状态等方面已经做好了全面攻台的准备。但这可能已经发生变化，现在解放军在技术和数量上都已经占据上风，这意味着全面攻台行动已经成为可能。
“现在我们还没有强烈的证据表明他们已经对自己的能力树立了完全的信心，”这位官员说，“他们也有可能今天就发动进攻，但我认为，他们现在可能仍然认为没有绝对的把握。”
DIA报告称，除了台湾，东海、南海也是未来中国周边局势紧张的潜在冲突地点。但随着中国的利益向全世界扩张，这位官员说，中国已经在吉布提建立基地，并且将把他们的战舰开向更远的地方，这意味着中美将在更远的地方发生“互动”。
这名官员表示，“不是说他们威胁我们，或者要在全世界采取军事行动，但他们确实正在扩大自己存在范围，并且我们不得不和他们打交道，和他们接触，应付他们，扩大监控他们的范围，相比之下，以前他们的注意力基本完全集中在自己海岸线附近。”
DIA报告称，尽管在军事理论方面（中国）可能仍落后于自己的技术实力，但他们在新技术方面的投资正进入收获期。
在美军看来，拥有强大实力的中国人民解放军不搞“导弹外交”，一定是因为“军事理论落后于实际能力”……当然这其实是他们不理解中国的战略思维模式（“高筑墙、广积粮、不称霸”）
在这份长达100页的报告中，DIA对解放军努力实现现代化的领域，包括陆地、海上、空中和太空进行了评估。他们认为中国的现代化已经取得了广泛的成果——包括其独立研制的第一艘航母下水，同时它们正继续发展具备核能力的轰-20战略轰炸机，以及近年来持续推进的陆军的专业化——这些已经产生了一支“强大的，致命的军队，这支军队有能力在空中、海上、太空和信息领域让中国在周边地区执行其意志，”DIA认为。
追赶美国的军事能力是一回事，但在某些领域，中国可能已经有超过美国的威胁——或者说他们已经在某些领域超过了。
排在第一位的就是高超音速武器——5马赫以上的飞行器。在过去的两年中，五角大楼正越来越多的发声要求扩大高超音速能力的投资，包括进攻和防御，这很大程度上就是因为中国正在快速发展这些武器。
“他们在这个领域已经占据领先地位，并且正在接近实际部署这些系统，”这位官员谈起高超音速武器的时候说，北京目前正投入巨资发展使用高超音速滑翔器的弹道导弹。
更大范围内，中国同时还是精确打击能力方面的领先国家，尤其是中程和中远程弹道导弹方面，目前美国官方将此归因于在这方面的发展受到中导条约的限制。
此外，该报告还支出，中国正在发展最先进的反卫星能力。
“这不仅仅是指可能发展对卫星干扰机或定向能武器，中国目前在动能武器方面进展也很大，包括范围性导弹系统，它已在2014年进行了试验，”报告称，“中国正在开发更复杂的卫星行动，并且可能测试新的军民两用技术，可能用于执行反卫星任务。”
这位官员表示：“他们已经很明确要推进建设太空拒止能力，这可能威胁到所有轨道上的美国卫星，他们认为这是美国及其盟友的一个潜在薄弱环节，尽管他们自己也日益依赖于太空能力。”
关键字 : 中国军力报告解放军美国国防情报局
US released 2019 China military report: full-scale attack has become possible
US released 2019 China military report: full-scale attack has become possible
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The US Defense Intelligence Agency issued the "Report on China's Military Power": The People's Liberation Army is realizing its strength
[Text / Observer Network Plug Open Source] US "Defense News" reported on the 16th that the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) launched the 2019 "China Military Forces" report, the most worried about this old intelligence agency is the People's Liberation Army The great progress in recent years has approached a new key point, that is, its members may already have enough confidence that they can beat their opponents in any field. The report said that in the long run, this will be bad news for the US military - especially for Taiwan.
The DIA report believes that the confidence of the Chinese leadership in its own strength is still lagging behind its actual capabilities, but a turning point may be coming.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is a US intelligence agency affiliated with the US Department of Defense. It was established in 1961 and is more specialized in military intelligence than the CIA.
According to reports, before DIA released the 2019 version of "China's military power" report, a senior defense intelligence official told reporters that Beijing may have established enough confidence that it is completely feasible to liberate Taiwan by force. This is the report. One of the "most worrying" conclusions.
"Our biggest concern is that they may have reached such a turning point that the PLA leadership has the confidence to report that they have full confidence in their own strength. We already know that before this, they usually think that they are a developing country. The weaker power," the official said.
“A lot of new technologies are taking shape. After they realize how effective their military power is, after they are fully proficient in their new abilities, we are worried that their decision-making level will reach such a turning point, they may More inclined to use military power in local conflicts," the official said.
This report is the first public report by DIA on China's military power. The official said that the difference between the Pentagon and the "China Military Report" submitted to the Congress every year is that this report does not have a "secret version". Reports are completely different in content and distribution channels.
According to the report, DIA believes that China's military modernization is not based on large-scale global conflicts, but is prepared to face the challenges around it, which means a potential local war.
The article believes that the large-scale actual combat training carried out by the People's Liberation Army in recent years has enabled the PLA to become more proficient in advanced technological capabilities and has greatly enhanced its confidence in winning victory in various fields.
Although the Chinese official announcements often take the example of the defeat of the Red Army troops participating in Zhu Ri and the exercises: "How far are we from actual combat?", but in the eyes of the US military, which often organizes extremely rigorous practical exercises, Such an exercise is more confident for the participating troops.
According to the report, "In Beijing's statement on the 'strategic opportunity period', it can be seen that as China's confidence and strength grow, the (US) leadership will face the fact that China is increasingly eager to exert influence in global affairs. Force, and this may eventually conflict with the interests of the United States."
For the Chinese leadership, it is not a secret to recover Taiwan as its long-term goal. DIA pointed out that China's military modernization has so far focused on Taiwan, especially in the short-range missile technology, which is basically not used in other regional conflicts.
So far, the reason why Taiwan is still "safe" is because the PLA itself did not think that they have already prepared for a comprehensive attack on Taiwan in terms of training, theory, and readiness. But this may have changed. Now the PLA has the upper hand in both technology and quantity, which means that full-scale attack has become possible.
"Now we have no strong evidence that they have built full confidence in their abilities," the official said. "They may also launch an offensive today, but I think they may still think that there is no absolute certainty. ”
DIA reported that in addition to Taiwan, the East China Sea and the South China Sea are also potential conflict sites in the future around China. But as China’s interests expand to the world, the official said that China has established a base in Djibouti and will open their warships further afield, which means that China and the United States will interact more farther. ".
The official said, “It’s not that they threaten us or take military action around the world, but they are indeed expanding their sphere of existence, and we have to deal with them, get in touch with them, cope with them, and expand the scope of monitoring them. By contrast, their previous focus was almost entirely on their own coastline."
DIA reports that although military theory (China) may still lag behind its own technical strength, their investment in new technologies is entering a harvest period.
In the view of the US military, the Chinese People's Liberation Army with strong strength does not engage in "missile diplomacy". It must be because "military theory lags behind actual ability"... Of course, this is actually because they do not understand China's strategic thinking mode ("high wall, Wide grain, do not dominate")
In this 100-page report, DIA evaluated the PLA's efforts to modernize its fields, including land, sea, air and space. They believe that China's modernization has achieved a wide range of results - including its first independently developed aircraft carrier, while they are continuing to develop nuclear-capable H-20 strategic bombers and the continued advancement of the Army's specialization in recent years - - These have produced a "strong, deadly army capable of allowing China to execute its will in the surrounding areas in the air, sea, space and information," DIA believes.
It is one thing to catch up with the US military capabilities, but in some areas, China may already have more threats than the United States -- or they have already surpassed certain areas.
In the first place is the hypersonic weapon - an aircraft of more than 5 Mach. In the past two years, the Pentagon has been increasingly vocalizing the need to expand its investment in hypersonic capabilities, including offensive and defensive, largely because China is rapidly developing these weapons.
"They have taken the lead in this field and are approaching the actual deployment of these systems," the official said of the hypersonic weapon. Beijing is currently investing heavily in the development of ballistic missiles using hypersonic gliders.
On a larger scale, China is also a leading country in terms of precision strike capability, especially for medium-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. At present, the US official attributed this development to the limitations of the China-Guide Treaty.
In addition, the report also pays, China is developing the most advanced anti-satellite capabilities.
"This is not just about the possibility of developing satellite jammers or directed energy weapons. China is currently making great progress on kinetic weapons, including the range missile system, which has been tested in 2014," the report said. "China is working Develop more sophisticated satellite operations and possibly test new dual-use technologies that may be used to perform anti-satellite missions."
The official said: "They have made it clear that they will advance the ability to build space, which may threaten US satellites in all orbits. They think this is a potential weak link for the United States and its allies, even though they themselves are increasingly dependent on Space ability."
Keywords : China Military Report, People's Liberation Army, US Defense Intelligence Agency
