- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 2,818
- Points
- 48
https://tw.news.yahoo.com/【yahoo論壇／黃奎博】美國會出兵援臺？川普的回答-014138236.html
【Yahoo論壇／黃奎博】美國會出兵援臺？川普的回答露餡了
黃奎博
政大國際事務學院副院長
15 人追蹤
政事觀察站2018年7月23日 上午9:41
作者為政大國際事務學院副院長
檢視相片
圖：法新社
美國某電視新聞網的主持人本（7）月18日在節目中問美國總統川普（Donald J. Trump）：「為什麼我兒子該去蒙特內哥羅，幫助他們抵禦攻擊？」川普回答說：「我懂你說的，因為我也問過同樣的問題。」
蒙特內哥羅（Montenegro）又稱黑山共和國，是新興民主國家，位在東南歐巴爾幹半島，2006年才獨立，是前南斯拉夫共和國成員之一，面積約1萬8千平方公里，人口僅約64萬；國內生產總值（購買力平價）達114億美元，若以人均計算，則約為1萬7千8百美元。該國於去（2017）年加入北大西洋公約組織（NATO）這個集體防衛體系，但總兵力約莫2千而已。
這樣的一個國家，是美國的盟邦，但川普還是公開懷疑為什麼美國作為北約的成員之一，有義務去幫它作戰，犧牲美國人的性命。
相信很多讀者馬上想到，萬一美國要出兵協防臺灣免於中國共產黨的威脅，又將有多少美國家長會問，「為什麼我的小孩要去臺灣，幫助他們抵禦共產黨的攻擊？」
這已經不是捍衛民主自由價值的問題了，而是美國子弟上了遠在千里、萬里之外的戰場，面對火力強大、實力超群的中國人民解放軍，最後將犧牲多少人以及為什麼要犧牲這麼多人的現實問題。
到底美、中開戰會導致多少美國軍人的死亡，似從未見到美國國防部提供任何估算。但我們可從去年下半年劉雲平及加勒戈（Ruben Gallego）兩位民主黨籍眾議員要求美國國防部提供一份報告中略窺一二。這份報告是有關美軍涉入朝鮮半島戰爭的評估報告，其中指出在開戰的前幾天，就算北韓不使用核武，美軍仍將有10萬人暴露在危險之下，亦即會有生命危險。
另外，在美國，對於第二次伊拉克戰爭陣亡4491人，犧牲了這麼多子弟兵的性命去結束伊拉克海珊（Saddam Hussein）政權，始終有很大的爭議。雖然說這個陣亡數字，多是在正規戰（2003年3月20日至4月底）結束後的8年多的「戰爭」期間，美軍在該國執行任務遭到意外或反抗勢力伏擊的結果，正規戰期間「僅」有百餘名英美聯軍官士兵陣亡，但那主要是因為聯軍戰鬥經驗相對豐富且武力占有絕對優勢。反觀伊拉克在1990年代初期第一次美伊戰爭失敗之後，受到國際制裁，早已無法快速更新軍事裝備，軍事實力及士氣大幅衰退。
美國第二次對伊戰爭可說是摧枯拉朽，但美國在面對人民解放軍時，軍事實力就沒有絕對優勢了；若思及「不對稱戰爭」，雙方恐怕各擅勝場。就算最後中共戰敗，美軍援臺作戰的傷亡人數極可能超過前述數字。
美、中開戰的衝突強度勢將遠甚於美國該次對伊作戰，更何況美國的航母戰鬥群勢必要現身在接近中國大陸的戰場，而僅僅一艘航母便載著動輒5、6千人，甚至更多，萬一遭擊沉，後果不堪設想。美國在亞太的軍事基地也將變成解放軍跨海攻擊的重點。所以預測美軍的死傷或將超過2003年起的對伊戰爭陣亡總人數，並非不可能。
如果上述推測的情況接近真實的話，任何理性的美國領導人都很難做出兵援臺灣的決定。
去年11月中旬，哈佛大學教授艾里森（Graham T. Allison，以研究美國外交決策聞名於世）曾在華府的研討會上，引用美國前亞太副助卿柯慶生（Thomas J. Christensen）的研究指出，美國過去30年來在臺灣議題上較偏向中國大陸，即使美國在中共欲武統臺灣的情況下將支援臺灣，但作法仍未確定；而他個人認為美國不太可能與中國大陸開戰，更不用說沒有亞太國家願意這樣做，因為現實就是如此。
臺灣各界最該認清的是，即使我國在臺海戰爭依靠美國而獲得最終勝利，參與戰爭的各方所犧牲的生命與付出的代價，都將是近40年來在亞洲地區空前的。
至於計算金錢利益非常精明、極少談到民主人權的川普怎麼想？只要我們回到他應對前述主持人提問時的思考邏輯，就可以猜得八九不離十了。那些懷抱著美軍援臺想法的人，最好不要太樂觀。
檢視相片
＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿
【Yahoo論壇】係Yahoo奇摩提供給網友、專家的意見交流平台，本文章內容僅反映作者個人意見，不代表Yahoo奇摩立場。有話想說？不吐不快！>>> 快投稿Yahoo論壇
[Yahoo Forum / Huang Kuibo] Will the United States send troops to Taiwan? Trump’s answer is stuffed
Huang Kuibo
Vice President, School of International Affairs, Zhengda University
15 people tracking
Political Affairs Observatory, July 23, 2018, 9:41 am
The author is the vice president of the School of International Affairs of Zhengda University.
View photo
Photo: AFP
On the 18th of the month, the host of a TV news network in the United States asked US President Donald J. Trump: "Why should my son go to Montenegro to help them resist the attack?" Trump replied Said: "I understand what you said because I have asked the same question."
Montenegro, also known as the Republic of Montenegro, is an emerging democracy, located in the Balkans of Southeastern Europe. It was independent in 2006 and is a member of the former Yugoslav Republic. It covers an area of about 18,000 square kilometers and has a population of only about 64. 10,000; gross domestic product (purchasing power parity) reached $11.4 billion, and if calculated on a per capita basis, it was about $17,800. The country joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a collective defense system in the year of 2017, but the total strength is about 2,000.
Such a country is an ally of the United States, but Trump still publicly suspects why the United States, as a member of NATO, has an obligation to fight it and sacrifice the lives of Americans.
I believe many readers immediately think that if the United States wants to send troops to prevent Taiwan from being threatened by the Chinese Communist Party, how many American parents will ask, "Why should my children go to Taiwan to help them resist the attacks of the Communist Party?"
This is no longer a question of defending the value of democracy and freedom. It is the battlefield of American children who are thousands of miles away and thousands of miles away. In the face of the powerful and powerful People’s Liberation Army, how many people will be sacrificed and why should they sacrifice so much? The real problem of man.
In the end, the US and China wars will lead to the death of many US soldiers. It seems that they have never seen any estimates from the US Department of Defense. But we can get a glimpse of a report from the US Department of Defense in the second half of last year when Liu Yunping and Ruben Gallego, two Democratic congressmen, asked for a report. This report is an assessment report on the involvement of the US military in the Korean Peninsula war. It pointed out that in the first few days of the war, even if North Korea does not use nuclear weapons, the US military will expose 100,000 people to danger, which means that there will be danger to life.
In addition, in the United States, for the 4,391 people killed in the second Iraq war, the sacrifice of so many children's lives to end the Iraqi Saddam Hussein regime has always been controversial. Although this number of deaths is mostly the result of an ambush by an unexpected or rebellious force during the "war" period of more than eight years after the end of the regular war (from March 20 to the end of April 2003), During the regular war, there were more than a hundred British and American officers and soldiers killed in battle, but that was mainly because the coalition’s combat experience was relatively rich and the military had an absolute advantage. In contrast, after the failure of the first US-Iraq war in the early 1990s, Iraq was subjected to international sanctions. It was no longer able to quickly update its military equipment, and its military strength and morale declined sharply.
The second US war against Iraq can be said to be devastating, but when the United States faces the People's Liberation Army, there is no absolute advantage in military strength. If we think about "asymmetric warfare," the two sides may be eager to win. Even if the CCP defeated in the end, the number of casualties in the US military aid to Taiwan is likely to exceed the aforementioned figures.
The intensity of the conflict between the United States and China will be far greater than that of the United States. Not to mention the US aircraft carrier battle group is bound to appear on the battlefield close to mainland China, and only one aircraft carrier will carry 5 or 6 thousand people. Even more, if it is sunk, the consequences are unimaginable. The US military base in the Asia-Pacific region will also become the focus of the PLA's cross-sea attack. Therefore, it is not impossible to predict the death toll of the US military or the total number of people killed in the war against Iraq since 2003.
If the above-mentioned speculation is close to reality, it is difficult for any rational US leader to make a decision to support Taiwan.
In mid-November last year, Harvard professor Graham T. Allison, known for his research on US foreign policy decisions, cites a study by former US Asia Pacific Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas J. Christensen at a seminar in Washington. It is pointed out that the United States has been biased toward mainland China on the Taiwan issue in the past 30 years. Even though the United States will support Taiwan in the event that the CCP wants to rule Taiwan, the practice remains undetermined; and he personally believes that the United States is unlikely to go to war with China. Needless to say, no Asia-Pacific countries are willing to do so, because the reality is.
What Taiwanese people should recognize most is that even if China wins the final victory in relying on the United States in the Taiwan Strait War, the lives and costs of the parties involved in the war will be unprecedented in the Asian region in the past 40 years.
As for Trump, who is very savvy in calculating monetary benefits and rarely talks about democracy and human rights? As long as we return to the logic of thinking when he responds to the questions of the aforementioned moderators, you can guess that it is inseparable. Those who hold the idea of holding US military aids should not be too optimistic.
View photo
______________
[Yahoo Forum] is a platform for Yahoo Qimo to provide comments and exchanges to netizens and experts. The content of this article only reflects the author's personal opinion and does not represent Yahoo's position. Do you want to say something? Don't spit up! >>> Fast submission Yahoo Forum
【Yahoo論壇／黃奎博】美國會出兵援臺？川普的回答露餡了
黃奎博
政大國際事務學院副院長
15 人追蹤
政事觀察站2018年7月23日 上午9:41
作者為政大國際事務學院副院長
檢視相片
圖：法新社
美國某電視新聞網的主持人本（7）月18日在節目中問美國總統川普（Donald J. Trump）：「為什麼我兒子該去蒙特內哥羅，幫助他們抵禦攻擊？」川普回答說：「我懂你說的，因為我也問過同樣的問題。」
蒙特內哥羅（Montenegro）又稱黑山共和國，是新興民主國家，位在東南歐巴爾幹半島，2006年才獨立，是前南斯拉夫共和國成員之一，面積約1萬8千平方公里，人口僅約64萬；國內生產總值（購買力平價）達114億美元，若以人均計算，則約為1萬7千8百美元。該國於去（2017）年加入北大西洋公約組織（NATO）這個集體防衛體系，但總兵力約莫2千而已。
這樣的一個國家，是美國的盟邦，但川普還是公開懷疑為什麼美國作為北約的成員之一，有義務去幫它作戰，犧牲美國人的性命。
相信很多讀者馬上想到，萬一美國要出兵協防臺灣免於中國共產黨的威脅，又將有多少美國家長會問，「為什麼我的小孩要去臺灣，幫助他們抵禦共產黨的攻擊？」
這已經不是捍衛民主自由價值的問題了，而是美國子弟上了遠在千里、萬里之外的戰場，面對火力強大、實力超群的中國人民解放軍，最後將犧牲多少人以及為什麼要犧牲這麼多人的現實問題。
到底美、中開戰會導致多少美國軍人的死亡，似從未見到美國國防部提供任何估算。但我們可從去年下半年劉雲平及加勒戈（Ruben Gallego）兩位民主黨籍眾議員要求美國國防部提供一份報告中略窺一二。這份報告是有關美軍涉入朝鮮半島戰爭的評估報告，其中指出在開戰的前幾天，就算北韓不使用核武，美軍仍將有10萬人暴露在危險之下，亦即會有生命危險。
另外，在美國，對於第二次伊拉克戰爭陣亡4491人，犧牲了這麼多子弟兵的性命去結束伊拉克海珊（Saddam Hussein）政權，始終有很大的爭議。雖然說這個陣亡數字，多是在正規戰（2003年3月20日至4月底）結束後的8年多的「戰爭」期間，美軍在該國執行任務遭到意外或反抗勢力伏擊的結果，正規戰期間「僅」有百餘名英美聯軍官士兵陣亡，但那主要是因為聯軍戰鬥經驗相對豐富且武力占有絕對優勢。反觀伊拉克在1990年代初期第一次美伊戰爭失敗之後，受到國際制裁，早已無法快速更新軍事裝備，軍事實力及士氣大幅衰退。
美國第二次對伊戰爭可說是摧枯拉朽，但美國在面對人民解放軍時，軍事實力就沒有絕對優勢了；若思及「不對稱戰爭」，雙方恐怕各擅勝場。就算最後中共戰敗，美軍援臺作戰的傷亡人數極可能超過前述數字。
美、中開戰的衝突強度勢將遠甚於美國該次對伊作戰，更何況美國的航母戰鬥群勢必要現身在接近中國大陸的戰場，而僅僅一艘航母便載著動輒5、6千人，甚至更多，萬一遭擊沉，後果不堪設想。美國在亞太的軍事基地也將變成解放軍跨海攻擊的重點。所以預測美軍的死傷或將超過2003年起的對伊戰爭陣亡總人數，並非不可能。
如果上述推測的情況接近真實的話，任何理性的美國領導人都很難做出兵援臺灣的決定。
去年11月中旬，哈佛大學教授艾里森（Graham T. Allison，以研究美國外交決策聞名於世）曾在華府的研討會上，引用美國前亞太副助卿柯慶生（Thomas J. Christensen）的研究指出，美國過去30年來在臺灣議題上較偏向中國大陸，即使美國在中共欲武統臺灣的情況下將支援臺灣，但作法仍未確定；而他個人認為美國不太可能與中國大陸開戰，更不用說沒有亞太國家願意這樣做，因為現實就是如此。
臺灣各界最該認清的是，即使我國在臺海戰爭依靠美國而獲得最終勝利，參與戰爭的各方所犧牲的生命與付出的代價，都將是近40年來在亞洲地區空前的。
至於計算金錢利益非常精明、極少談到民主人權的川普怎麼想？只要我們回到他應對前述主持人提問時的思考邏輯，就可以猜得八九不離十了。那些懷抱著美軍援臺想法的人，最好不要太樂觀。
檢視相片
＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿
【Yahoo論壇】係Yahoo奇摩提供給網友、專家的意見交流平台，本文章內容僅反映作者個人意見，不代表Yahoo奇摩立場。有話想說？不吐不快！>>> 快投稿Yahoo論壇
[Yahoo Forum / Huang Kuibo] Will the United States send troops to Taiwan? Trump’s answer is stuffed
Huang Kuibo
Vice President, School of International Affairs, Zhengda University
15 people tracking
Political Affairs Observatory, July 23, 2018, 9:41 am
The author is the vice president of the School of International Affairs of Zhengda University.
View photo
Photo: AFP
On the 18th of the month, the host of a TV news network in the United States asked US President Donald J. Trump: "Why should my son go to Montenegro to help them resist the attack?" Trump replied Said: "I understand what you said because I have asked the same question."
Montenegro, also known as the Republic of Montenegro, is an emerging democracy, located in the Balkans of Southeastern Europe. It was independent in 2006 and is a member of the former Yugoslav Republic. It covers an area of about 18,000 square kilometers and has a population of only about 64. 10,000; gross domestic product (purchasing power parity) reached $11.4 billion, and if calculated on a per capita basis, it was about $17,800. The country joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a collective defense system in the year of 2017, but the total strength is about 2,000.
Such a country is an ally of the United States, but Trump still publicly suspects why the United States, as a member of NATO, has an obligation to fight it and sacrifice the lives of Americans.
I believe many readers immediately think that if the United States wants to send troops to prevent Taiwan from being threatened by the Chinese Communist Party, how many American parents will ask, "Why should my children go to Taiwan to help them resist the attacks of the Communist Party?"
This is no longer a question of defending the value of democracy and freedom. It is the battlefield of American children who are thousands of miles away and thousands of miles away. In the face of the powerful and powerful People’s Liberation Army, how many people will be sacrificed and why should they sacrifice so much? The real problem of man.
In the end, the US and China wars will lead to the death of many US soldiers. It seems that they have never seen any estimates from the US Department of Defense. But we can get a glimpse of a report from the US Department of Defense in the second half of last year when Liu Yunping and Ruben Gallego, two Democratic congressmen, asked for a report. This report is an assessment report on the involvement of the US military in the Korean Peninsula war. It pointed out that in the first few days of the war, even if North Korea does not use nuclear weapons, the US military will expose 100,000 people to danger, which means that there will be danger to life.
In addition, in the United States, for the 4,391 people killed in the second Iraq war, the sacrifice of so many children's lives to end the Iraqi Saddam Hussein regime has always been controversial. Although this number of deaths is mostly the result of an ambush by an unexpected or rebellious force during the "war" period of more than eight years after the end of the regular war (from March 20 to the end of April 2003), During the regular war, there were more than a hundred British and American officers and soldiers killed in battle, but that was mainly because the coalition’s combat experience was relatively rich and the military had an absolute advantage. In contrast, after the failure of the first US-Iraq war in the early 1990s, Iraq was subjected to international sanctions. It was no longer able to quickly update its military equipment, and its military strength and morale declined sharply.
The second US war against Iraq can be said to be devastating, but when the United States faces the People's Liberation Army, there is no absolute advantage in military strength. If we think about "asymmetric warfare," the two sides may be eager to win. Even if the CCP defeated in the end, the number of casualties in the US military aid to Taiwan is likely to exceed the aforementioned figures.
The intensity of the conflict between the United States and China will be far greater than that of the United States. Not to mention the US aircraft carrier battle group is bound to appear on the battlefield close to mainland China, and only one aircraft carrier will carry 5 or 6 thousand people. Even more, if it is sunk, the consequences are unimaginable. The US military base in the Asia-Pacific region will also become the focus of the PLA's cross-sea attack. Therefore, it is not impossible to predict the death toll of the US military or the total number of people killed in the war against Iraq since 2003.
If the above-mentioned speculation is close to reality, it is difficult for any rational US leader to make a decision to support Taiwan.
In mid-November last year, Harvard professor Graham T. Allison, known for his research on US foreign policy decisions, cites a study by former US Asia Pacific Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas J. Christensen at a seminar in Washington. It is pointed out that the United States has been biased toward mainland China on the Taiwan issue in the past 30 years. Even though the United States will support Taiwan in the event that the CCP wants to rule Taiwan, the practice remains undetermined; and he personally believes that the United States is unlikely to go to war with China. Needless to say, no Asia-Pacific countries are willing to do so, because the reality is.
What Taiwanese people should recognize most is that even if China wins the final victory in relying on the United States in the Taiwan Strait War, the lives and costs of the parties involved in the war will be unprecedented in the Asian region in the past 40 years.
As for Trump, who is very savvy in calculating monetary benefits and rarely talks about democracy and human rights? As long as we return to the logic of thinking when he responds to the questions of the aforementioned moderators, you can guess that it is inseparable. Those who hold the idea of holding US military aids should not be too optimistic.
View photo
______________
[Yahoo Forum] is a platform for Yahoo Qimo to provide comments and exchanges to netizens and experts. The content of this article only reflects the author's personal opinion and does not represent Yahoo's position. Do you want to say something? Don't spit up! >>> Fast submission Yahoo Forum
