https://tw.mobi.yahoo.com/news/川普為何急見習近平-答案在漲價的聖經-100133194.html
川普為何急見習近平？答案在漲價的聖經
商業 周刊
· 141人追蹤
楊少強1 小時前
「我可不是來輸的。」川普對2020連任信心十足，但前提是他先擺平貿易戰引發的民怨。
「成也中國，敗也中國」，這或許是美國總統川普的心情寫照。中美貿易戰讓川普聲威大振，但6月28日「川習會」，卻反映美國民怨四起，川普須速戰速決的壓力。這也將是他連任與否的最大變數。
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這次「川習會」和以往不同的是：川普先主動放消息，中國等到3、4天後才確認。為何川普急著想見習近平？
6月18日川普宣布競選連任，但民調顯示他的起跑點已落後一截。美國國家廣播公司（NBC）與《華爾街日報》6月民調顯示，52％民眾對川普連任「非常不舒服」（very uncomfortable）。
對中國加關稅，美企喊反對
2016年川普能勝選，要拜關鍵搖擺州倒向他所賜。但財經網站CNBC引述民調，如今川普在佛羅里達、密西根、北卡羅萊納等搖擺州，都落後給民主黨對手。
民調落後原因，就是貿易戰讓民眾未見其利、先受其禍。首先是企業。6月17日至25日，美國貿易代表署舉行聽證會，邀請企業討論是否對中國加關稅，結果企業一面倒反對。
如New Balance在美國生產鞋子，他們從中國進口鞋底、鞋面等原料。該公司副總裁高曼（Monica Gorman）說，川普加關稅使原料成本上升，「傷害我們的營運能力。」
家電商耶迪（Yedi）銷售總監迪瓦赫里（Bobby Djavaheri）說，美國已不生產像氣炸鍋之類的家電，多從中國進口。川普對這些產品加關稅，全由美國進口商承擔。「這真讓人哭笑不得。」
除了企業，消費大眾也是受害者。時尚名牌勞夫羅倫（Ralph Lauren）代表，在聽證會上表示，加關稅導致他們的客戶「付的價格上漲，供應量減少。」洛杉磯快時尚服飾商Forever 21也說，關稅「不是由我們自己，就是由客戶負擔。」
關稅戰危及90萬個職缺
《紐約時報》今年六月引述研究，自2018年2月以來，美國受關稅影響的產品，至今價格已上漲近3％，而未受關稅影響者則下跌2.3％，每個美國家庭平均已經因為關稅而多付414美元。
這些增加的支出，大多花在一般生活用品。國家零售協會（National Retail Federation）研究顯示，若川普對中國進口品全面加關稅，美國民眾一年將多花44億美元買衣服、25億美元買鞋子、16億美元買家具。
這意味民眾能花在其他商品的錢減少，其他領域的工作機會將消失。穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）經濟學家贊迪預估，美國將因此減少90萬個工作機會。
除了金錢損失，民眾連宗教信仰也受害。書商哈波柯林斯（Harper Collins）執行長修瓦德（Mark Schoenwald），在聽證會上表示，中國是全球最大聖經印製者，美國的聖經多是由中國進口。關稅導致聖經成本上漲，未來教堂恐怕買不起聖經，他稱此為「聖經稅」，「川普政府恐怕壓根兒沒想到關稅也會打擊聖經。」
●關稅戰掀漲價潮，川普支持率直直落
■美國受關稅戰影響產品價格漲近3％
■川普民調輸對手10個百分點」
▪川普：39％
▪拜登：49％
註：產品價格統計期間為2018/2至2019/4，價格以2018/2為基期；川普民調為2019/6/9至6/12調查統計
資料來源：紐約時報、Real Clear Politics 整理：楊少強
關稅戰掀漲價潮，川普支持率直直落
救出口，首度來台促銷農產
還有農民。自2018年3月川普加徵鋼鋁稅後，各國對美國農產品展開報復，農民成為直接受害者。今年5月美國農業部宣布提供160億美元補助，甚至連台灣也成為美國農人的救命稻草。
美國農業部海外服務署署長艾斯里（Ken Isley），今年4月率49位美國農產企業代表訪台，這是美國農業部首次籌組貿易代表團來台。
台灣是美國大豆、小麥的第八、第四大出口市場。美國農產品遭各國報復，連農業部也不得不組團來台促銷，這顯示川普即使嘴硬，實際上他的壓力並不小。
川普的支持群眾，以信仰基督教的白人藍領階層、農民為主。但中美貿易戰後，受害最深的就是這群人。民主黨總統參選人、目前民調第一的拜登（Joe Biden），今年5月就批評川普的貿易戰「完全搞錯方向」，「唯一受害者就是美國農民與工人。」此舉正是要收割川普貿易戰下的民怨。
距下次美國總統大選只剩不到一年半，這種壓力使川普須盡快解決中美貿易戰。就算不能馬上達成協議，也要塑造出能逼對方讓步的形象。這是本次「川習會」背後的潛在意義。
要選舉的人，一定比較急。川普過去擅長殺過頭、壓到底的商業談判手法，用在自家企業，可為達成長期目標而承受短期壓力，但如今用在相對弱勢的老百姓，短期選票效應就足以帶給他極大壓力。如CNBC評論：「川普必須設法從他自己挖的洞裡爬出來。」如何使民眾不因貿易戰失血過多而丟選票，這才是川普接下來的大難題。
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Chuān pǔ wèihé jí jiàn xíjìnpíng? Dá'àn zài zhǎng jià de shèngjīng shāngyè zhōukān · 141 rén zhuīzōng yángshǎoqiáng 1 xiǎoshí qián `wǒ kě bùshì lái shū de.'Chuān pǔ duì 2020 liánrèn xìnxīn shízú, dàn qiántí shì tā xiān bǎipíng màoyì zhàn yǐnfā de mínyuàn. `Chéng yě zhōngguó, bài yě zhōngguó', zhè huòxǔ shì měiguó zǒngtǒng chuān pǔ de xīnqíng xiězhào. Zhōng měi màoyì zhàn ràng chuān pǔ shēngwēi dà zhèn, dàn 6 yuè 28 rì `chuān xí huì', què fǎnyìng měiguó mínyuàn sìqǐ, chuān pǔ xū sù zhàn sùjué de yālì. Zhè yě jiāng shì tā liánrèn yǔ fǒu de zuìdà biànshù. Apply for Instant Digital Credit Card for Cashback SponsoredStandard Chartered Bank zhècì `chuān xí huì'hé yǐwǎng bùtóng de shì: Chuān pǔ xiān zhǔdòng fàng xiāoxī, zhōngguó děngdào 3,4 tiān hòu cái quèrèn. Wèihé chuān pǔ jí zhuóxiǎng jiàn xíjìnpíng? 6 Yuè 18 rì chuān pǔ xuānbù jìngxuǎn liánrèn, dàn mín diào xiǎnshì tā de qǐpǎo diǎn yǐ luòhòu yī jié. Měiguó guójiā guǎngbò gōngsī (NBC) yǔ “huá'ěrjiē rìbào”6 yuè mín diào xiǎnshì,52%mínzhòng duì chuān pǔ liánrèn `fēicháng bú shūfú'(very uncomfortable). Duì zhōngguójiā guānshuì, měi qǐ hǎn fǎnduì 2016 nián chuān pǔ néng shēng xuǎn, yào bài guānjiàn yáobǎi zhōu dǎo xiàng tā suǒ cì. Dàn cáijīng wǎngzhàn CNBC yǐnshù mín diào, rújīn chuān pǔ zài fóluólǐdá, mì xīgēn, běi kǎ luólái nà děng yáobǎi zhōu, dōu luòhòu jǐ mínzhǔ dǎng duìshǒu. Mín diào luòhòu yuányīn, jiùshì màoyì zhàn ràng mínzhòng wèi jiàn qí lì, xiān shòu qí huò. Shǒuxiān shi qǐyè.6 Yuè 17 rì zhì 25 rì, měiguó màoyì dàibiǎo shǔ jǔxíng tīngzhèng huì, yāoqǐng qǐyè tǎolùn shìfǒu duì zhōngguó jiā guānshuì, jiéguǒ qǐyè yī miàndào fǎnduì. Rú New Balance zài měiguó shēngchǎn xiézi, tāmen cóng zhōngguó jìnkǒu xiédǐ, xié miàn děng yuánliào. Gāi gōngsī fù zǒngcái gāo màn (Monica Gorman) shuō, chuān pǔ jiā guānshuì shǐ yuánliào chéngběn shàngshēng,`shānghài wǒmen de yíngyùn nénglì.' Jiādiàn shāng yé dí (Yedi) xiāoshòu zǒngjiān dí wǎ hè lǐ (Bobby Djavaheri) shuō, měiguó yǐ bù shēngchǎn xiàng qì zhá guō zhī lèi de jiādiàn, duō cóng zhōngguó jìnkǒu. Chuān pǔ duì zhèxiē chǎnpǐn jiā guānshuì, quán yóu měiguó jìnkǒu shāng chéngdān.`Zhè zhēn ràng rén kūxiàobùdé.' Chúle qǐyè, xiāofèi dàzhòng yěshì shòuhài zhě. Shíshàng míngpái láo fū luó lún (Ralph Lauren) dàibiǎo, zài tīngzhèng huì shàng biǎoshì, jiā guānshuì dǎozhì tāmen de kèhù `fù de jiàgé shàngzhǎng, gōngyìng liàng jiǎnshǎo.'Luòshānjī kuài shíshàng fúshì shāng Forever 21 yě shuō, guānshuì `bùshì yóu wǒmen zìjǐ, jiùshì yóu kèhù fùdān.' Guānshuì zhàn wéijí 90 wàn gè zhí quē “niǔyuē shíbào” jīnnián liù yuè yǐnshù yánjiū, zì 2018 nián 2 yuè yǐlái, měiguó shòu guānshuì yǐngxiǎng de chǎnpǐn, zhìjīn jiàgé yǐ shàngzhǎng jìn 3%, ér wèi shòu guānshuì yǐngxiǎng zhě zé xiàdié 2.3%, Měi gè měiguó jiātíng píngjūn yǐjīng yīnwèi guānshuì ér duō fù 414 měiyuán. Zhèxiē zēngjiā de zhīchū, dàduō huā zài yībān shēnghuó yòngpǐn. Guó jiā língshòu xiéhuì (National Retail Federation) yánjiū xiǎnshì, ruò chuān pǔ duì zhōngguó jìnkǒu pǐn quánmiàn jiā guānshuì, měiguó mínzhòng yī nián jiāng duō huā 44 yì měiyuán mǎi yīfú,25 yì měiyuán mǎi xiézi,16 yì měiyuán mǎi jiājù. Zhè yìwèi mínzhòng néng huā zài qítā shāngpǐn de qián jiǎnshǎo, qítā lǐngyù de gōngzuò jīhuì jiāng xiāoshī. Mù dí fēnxī (Moody's Analytics) jīngjì xué jiā zàn dí yù gū, měiguó jiāng yīncǐ jiǎnshǎo 90 wàn gè gōngzuò jīhuì. Chúle jīnqián sǔnshī, mínzhòng lián zōngjiào xìnyǎng yě shòuhài. Shū shāng hā bō kēlínsī (Harper Collins) zhíxíng zhǎng xiū wǎ dé (Mark Schoenwald), zài tīngzhèng huì shàng biǎoshì, zhōngguó shì quánqiú zuìdà shèngjīng yìn zhì zhě, měiguó de shèngjīng duō shì yóu zhōngguó jìnkǒu. Guānshuì dǎozhì shèngjīng chéngběn shàngzhǎng, wèilái jiàotáng kǒngpà mǎi bù qǐ shèngjīng, tā chēng cǐ wéi `shèngjīng shuì',`chuān pǔ zhèngfǔ kǒngpà yàgēn er méi xiǎngdào guānshuì yě huì dǎjí shèngjīng.' ●Guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò ￭měiguó shòu guānshuì zhàn yǐngxiǎng chǎnpǐn jiàgé zhǎng jìn 3% ￭chuān pǔ mín diào shū duìshǒu 10 gè bǎifēndiǎn' ▪chuān pǔ:39% ▪Bài dēng:49% Zhù: Chǎnpǐn jiàgé tǒngjì qíjiān wèi 2018/2 zhì 2019/4, jiàgé yǐ 2018/2 wèi jīqī; chuān pǔ mín diào wèi 2019/6/9 zhì 6/12 diàochá tǒngjì zīliào láiyuán: Niǔyuē shíbào,Real Clear Politics zhěnglǐ: Yángshǎoqiáng guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò jiù chūkǒu, shǒu dù lái tái cùxiāo nóng chǎn hái yǒu nóngmín. Zì 2018 nián 3 yuè chuān pǔ jiā zhēng gāng lǚ shuì hòu, gèguó duì měiguó nóngchǎnpǐn zhǎnkāi bàofù, nóngmín chéngwéi zhíjiē shòuhài zhě. Jīnnián 5 yuè měiguó nóngyè bù xuānbù tígōng 160 yì měiyuán bǔzhù, shènzhì lián táiwān yě chéngwéi měiguó nóng rén de jiùmìng dàocǎo. Měiguó nóngyè bù hǎiwài fúwù shǔ shǔzhǎng ài sī lǐ (Ken Isley), jīnnián 4 yuè lǜ 49 wèi měiguó nóng chǎn qǐyè dàibiǎo fǎng tái, zhè shì měiguó nóngyè bù shǒucì chóu zǔ màoyì dàibiǎo tuán lái tái. Táiwān shì měiguó dàdòu, xiǎomài de dì bā, dì sì dà chūkǒu shìchǎng. Měiguó nóngchǎnpǐn zāo gèguó bàofù, lián nóngyè bù yě bùdé bù zǔtuán lái tái cùxiāo, zhè xiǎnshì chuān pǔ jíshǐ zuǐyìng, shíjì shang tā de yālì bìng bù xiǎo. Chuān pǔ de zhīchí qúnzhòng, yǐ xìnyǎng jīdūjiào de báirén lánlǐng jiēcéng, nóngmín wéi zhǔ. Dàn zhōng měi màoyì zhàn hòu, shòuhài zuìshēn de jiùshì zhè qún rén. Mínzhǔ dǎng zǒngtǒng cān xuǎn rén, mùqián mín diào dì yī de bài dēng (Joe Biden), jīnnián 5 yuè jiù pīpíng chuān pǔ de màoyì zhàn `wánquán gǎo cuò fāngxiàng',`wéiyī shòuhài zhě jiùshì měiguó nóngmín yǔ gōngrén.'Cǐ jǔ zhèng shì yào shōugē chuān pǔ màoyì zhàn xià de mínyuàn. Jù xià cì měiguó zǒngtǒng dàxuǎn zhǐ shèng bù dào yī nián bàn, zhè zhǒng yālì shǐ chuān pǔ xū jǐnkuài jiějué zhōng měi màoyì zhàn. Jiùsuàn bùnéng mǎshàng dáchéng xiéyì, yě yào sùzào chū néng bī duìfāng ràngbù de xíngxiàng. Zhè shì běn cì `chuān xí huì'bèihòu de qiánzài yìyì. Yào xuǎnjǔ de rén, yīdìng bǐjiào jí. Chuān pǔ guòqù shàncháng shā guòtóu, yā dàodǐ de shāngyè tánpàn shǒufǎ, yòng zài zìjiā qì yè, kě wéi dáchéng chángqí mùbiāo ér chéngshòu duǎnqí yālì, dàn rújīn yòng zài xiāngduì ruòshì de lǎobǎixìng, duǎnqí xuǎnpiào xiàoyìng jiù zúyǐ dài gěi tā jídà yālì. Rú CNBC pínglùn:`Chuān pǔ bìxū shèfǎ cóng tā zìjǐ wā de dòng lǐ pá chūlái.'Rúhé shǐ mínzhòng bù yīn màoyì zhàn shīxuè guòduō ér diū xuǎnpiào, zhè cái shì chuān pǔ jiē xiàlái de dà nàn tí. Gèng duō shāng zhōu wénzhāng
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Why is Trump eager to see Xi Jinping? The answer is in the price of the Bible
Business weekly
· 141 people track
Yang Shaoqiang 1 hour ago
"I am not here to lose." Trump is full of confidence in the 2020 re-election, but only if he first settles the grievances caused by the trade war.
"Chengdu China, defeated China," may be the mood of President Trump. The Sino-US trade war has made Chupu a great revival, but on June 28th, the "Chuan Xihui" reflected that the American people were blaming, and Trump had to speed up the pressure. This will also be the biggest variable in his re-election.
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This time, the "Chuan Xi Hui" is different from the past: Trump first took the initiative to release the news, and China waited until 3 or 4 days before confirming. Why is Trump eager to see Xi Jinping?
On June 18, Trump announced his re-election, but the poll showed that his starting point was behind. The National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the Wall Street Journal poll showed in June that 52% of the people were "very uncomfortable" for Trump's re-election.
Adding tariffs to China, the US companies shouted against
In 2016, Trump won the election and wanted to worship the key swing state and give him the gift. But the financial website CNBC quoted the polls, and now Trump is behind the Democratic States in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and other swing states.
The reason for the backwardness of the polls is that the trade war has made the people unsuccessful and suffers first. The first is the enterprise. From June 17th to 25th, the US Trade Representative Office held a hearing to invite companies to discuss whether to impose tariffs on China. As a result, the company opposed it.
For example, New Balance produces shoes in the United States, and they import raw materials such as soles and uppers from China. Monica Gorman, the company's vice president, said that Trump's tariffs have increased raw material costs and "damaged our operational capabilities."
Bobby Djavaheri, director of home appliance maker Yedi, said the US has not produced home appliances like gas fryers, mostly imported from China. Trump imposes tariffs on these products, all of which are borne by US importers. "This is really ridiculous."
In addition to businesses, the consumer is also a victim. Ralph Lauren, the fashion brand, said at the hearing that the increase in tariffs caused their customers to “pay the price up and reduce the supply.” Los Angeles fast fashion apparel company Forever 21 also said that the tariff is “not by us. It is the burden of the customer."
Customs warfare endangers 900,000 jobs
The New York Times quoted research in June this year. Since February 2018, US tariff-affected products have risen by nearly 3%, while those not affected by tariffs have fallen by 2.3%. The tariff is increased by $414.
Most of these increased expenditures are spent on general household items. According to a study by the National Retail Federation, if Trump imposes a full tariff on Chinese imports, the American people will spend an additional 4.4 billion dollars a year on clothes, $2.5 billion on shoes, and $1.6 billion on furniture.
This means that people can spend less on other goods, and jobs in other areas will disappear. Moody's Analytics economist Zandi estimates that the United States will reduce 900,000 jobs.
In addition to the loss of money, the people suffer from religious beliefs. Mark Schoenwald, the chief executive of Harper Collins, said at the hearing that China is the world's largest biblical printer, and that the American Bible is mostly imported from China. Tariffs have caused the cost of the Bible to rise. I am afraid that the church will not be able to afford the Bible in the future. He calls this the "Bible Tax". "The Trump administration may not think that tariffs will also strike the Bible."
● tariffs and war prices have risen, and Trump’s support rate has fallen straight
■ US prices affected by tariff wars rose by nearly 3%
■ Trump's transfer of opponents by 10 percentage points
▪ Trump: 39%
▪ Biden: 49%
Note: The product price statistics period is 2018/2 to 2019/4, the price is based on 2018/2; the Trump poll is 2019/6/9 to 6/12 survey statistics.
Source: New York Times, Real Clear Politics Finishing: Yang Shaoqiang
The tariff war has risen in price, and the support rate of Trump has fallen straight.
The tariff war has risen in price, and the support rate of Trump has fallen straight.
Save the export, first come to Taiwan to promote agricultural products
There are also farmers. Since Trump's tax on steel and aluminum in March 2018, countries have retaliated against US agricultural products, and farmers have become direct victims. In May of this year, the US Department of Agriculture announced a $16 billion grant, and even Taiwan has become a lifeline for American farmers.
Ken Isley, Director of the US Department of Agriculture's Overseas Services Agency, led 49 representatives of US agribusiness companies to visit Taiwan in April this year. This is the first time the US Department of Agriculture has organized a trade delegation to Taiwan.
Taiwan is the eighth and fourth largest export market for US soybeans and wheat. American agricultural products were retaliated by various countries, and even the Ministry of Agriculture had to organize a group to come to Taiwan for promotion. This shows that even if Trump is hard, his pressure is not small.
Trump’s support for the masses is dominated by white-collar workers and peasants who believe in Christianity. But after the Sino-US trade war, the group was the one who suffered the most. Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate and the current pollster, criticized Trump’s trade war in May this year, "completely wrong direction." "The only victims are American farmers and workers." It is to reap the grievances of the Trump trade war.
Less than a year and a half away from the next US presidential election, this pressure will make Trump resolve the Sino-US trade war as soon as possible. Even if you can't reach an agreement right away, you have to create an image that can force the other party to make concessions. This is the potential behind this "Chuan Xi Hui".
Those who want to vote must be more anxious. In the past, Trump was good at killing the head and pressing the business negotiation methods. In his own business, he could bear short-term pressure to achieve long-term goals, but nowadays it is used by relatively disadvantaged people. The short-term vote effect is enough to bring him great pressure. For example, CNBC commented: "Trop must try to climb out of the hole he dug himself." How to make people not lose votes because of excessive trade and blood loss is the next big problem for Trump.
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川普為何急見習近平？答案在漲價的聖經
商業 周刊
· 141人追蹤
楊少強1 小時前
「我可不是來輸的。」川普對2020連任信心十足，但前提是他先擺平貿易戰引發的民怨。
「成也中國，敗也中國」，這或許是美國總統川普的心情寫照。中美貿易戰讓川普聲威大振，但6月28日「川習會」，卻反映美國民怨四起，川普須速戰速決的壓力。這也將是他連任與否的最大變數。
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這次「川習會」和以往不同的是：川普先主動放消息，中國等到3、4天後才確認。為何川普急著想見習近平？
6月18日川普宣布競選連任，但民調顯示他的起跑點已落後一截。美國國家廣播公司（NBC）與《華爾街日報》6月民調顯示，52％民眾對川普連任「非常不舒服」（very uncomfortable）。
對中國加關稅，美企喊反對
2016年川普能勝選，要拜關鍵搖擺州倒向他所賜。但財經網站CNBC引述民調，如今川普在佛羅里達、密西根、北卡羅萊納等搖擺州，都落後給民主黨對手。
民調落後原因，就是貿易戰讓民眾未見其利、先受其禍。首先是企業。6月17日至25日，美國貿易代表署舉行聽證會，邀請企業討論是否對中國加關稅，結果企業一面倒反對。
如New Balance在美國生產鞋子，他們從中國進口鞋底、鞋面等原料。該公司副總裁高曼（Monica Gorman）說，川普加關稅使原料成本上升，「傷害我們的營運能力。」
家電商耶迪（Yedi）銷售總監迪瓦赫里（Bobby Djavaheri）說，美國已不生產像氣炸鍋之類的家電，多從中國進口。川普對這些產品加關稅，全由美國進口商承擔。「這真讓人哭笑不得。」
除了企業，消費大眾也是受害者。時尚名牌勞夫羅倫（Ralph Lauren）代表，在聽證會上表示，加關稅導致他們的客戶「付的價格上漲，供應量減少。」洛杉磯快時尚服飾商Forever 21也說，關稅「不是由我們自己，就是由客戶負擔。」
關稅戰危及90萬個職缺
《紐約時報》今年六月引述研究，自2018年2月以來，美國受關稅影響的產品，至今價格已上漲近3％，而未受關稅影響者則下跌2.3％，每個美國家庭平均已經因為關稅而多付414美元。
這些增加的支出，大多花在一般生活用品。國家零售協會（National Retail Federation）研究顯示，若川普對中國進口品全面加關稅，美國民眾一年將多花44億美元買衣服、25億美元買鞋子、16億美元買家具。
這意味民眾能花在其他商品的錢減少，其他領域的工作機會將消失。穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）經濟學家贊迪預估，美國將因此減少90萬個工作機會。
除了金錢損失，民眾連宗教信仰也受害。書商哈波柯林斯（Harper Collins）執行長修瓦德（Mark Schoenwald），在聽證會上表示，中國是全球最大聖經印製者，美國的聖經多是由中國進口。關稅導致聖經成本上漲，未來教堂恐怕買不起聖經，他稱此為「聖經稅」，「川普政府恐怕壓根兒沒想到關稅也會打擊聖經。」
●關稅戰掀漲價潮，川普支持率直直落
■美國受關稅戰影響產品價格漲近3％
■川普民調輸對手10個百分點」
▪川普：39％
▪拜登：49％
註：產品價格統計期間為2018/2至2019/4，價格以2018/2為基期；川普民調為2019/6/9至6/12調查統計
資料來源：紐約時報、Real Clear Politics 整理：楊少強
關稅戰掀漲價潮，川普支持率直直落
救出口，首度來台促銷農產
還有農民。自2018年3月川普加徵鋼鋁稅後，各國對美國農產品展開報復，農民成為直接受害者。今年5月美國農業部宣布提供160億美元補助，甚至連台灣也成為美國農人的救命稻草。
美國農業部海外服務署署長艾斯里（Ken Isley），今年4月率49位美國農產企業代表訪台，這是美國農業部首次籌組貿易代表團來台。
台灣是美國大豆、小麥的第八、第四大出口市場。美國農產品遭各國報復，連農業部也不得不組團來台促銷，這顯示川普即使嘴硬，實際上他的壓力並不小。
川普的支持群眾，以信仰基督教的白人藍領階層、農民為主。但中美貿易戰後，受害最深的就是這群人。民主黨總統參選人、目前民調第一的拜登（Joe Biden），今年5月就批評川普的貿易戰「完全搞錯方向」，「唯一受害者就是美國農民與工人。」此舉正是要收割川普貿易戰下的民怨。
距下次美國總統大選只剩不到一年半，這種壓力使川普須盡快解決中美貿易戰。就算不能馬上達成協議，也要塑造出能逼對方讓步的形象。這是本次「川習會」背後的潛在意義。
要選舉的人，一定比較急。川普過去擅長殺過頭、壓到底的商業談判手法，用在自家企業，可為達成長期目標而承受短期壓力，但如今用在相對弱勢的老百姓，短期選票效應就足以帶給他極大壓力。如CNBC評論：「川普必須設法從他自己挖的洞裡爬出來。」如何使民眾不因貿易戰失血過多而丟選票，這才是川普接下來的大難題。
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Chuān pǔ wèihé jí jiàn xíjìnpíng? Dá'àn zài zhǎng jià de shèngjīng shāngyè zhōukān · 141 rén zhuīzōng yángshǎoqiáng 1 xiǎoshí qián `wǒ kě bùshì lái shū de.'Chuān pǔ duì 2020 liánrèn xìnxīn shízú, dàn qiántí shì tā xiān bǎipíng màoyì zhàn yǐnfā de mínyuàn. `Chéng yě zhōngguó, bài yě zhōngguó', zhè huòxǔ shì měiguó zǒngtǒng chuān pǔ de xīnqíng xiězhào. Zhōng měi màoyì zhàn ràng chuān pǔ shēngwēi dà zhèn, dàn 6 yuè 28 rì `chuān xí huì', què fǎnyìng měiguó mínyuàn sìqǐ, chuān pǔ xū sù zhàn sùjué de yālì. Zhè yě jiāng shì tā liánrèn yǔ fǒu de zuìdà biànshù. Apply for Instant Digital Credit Card for Cashback SponsoredStandard Chartered Bank zhècì `chuān xí huì'hé yǐwǎng bùtóng de shì: Chuān pǔ xiān zhǔdòng fàng xiāoxī, zhōngguó děngdào 3,4 tiān hòu cái quèrèn. Wèihé chuān pǔ jí zhuóxiǎng jiàn xíjìnpíng? 6 Yuè 18 rì chuān pǔ xuānbù jìngxuǎn liánrèn, dàn mín diào xiǎnshì tā de qǐpǎo diǎn yǐ luòhòu yī jié. Měiguó guójiā guǎngbò gōngsī (NBC) yǔ “huá'ěrjiē rìbào”6 yuè mín diào xiǎnshì,52%mínzhòng duì chuān pǔ liánrèn `fēicháng bú shūfú'(very uncomfortable). Duì zhōngguójiā guānshuì, měi qǐ hǎn fǎnduì 2016 nián chuān pǔ néng shēng xuǎn, yào bài guānjiàn yáobǎi zhōu dǎo xiàng tā suǒ cì. Dàn cáijīng wǎngzhàn CNBC yǐnshù mín diào, rújīn chuān pǔ zài fóluólǐdá, mì xīgēn, běi kǎ luólái nà děng yáobǎi zhōu, dōu luòhòu jǐ mínzhǔ dǎng duìshǒu. Mín diào luòhòu yuányīn, jiùshì màoyì zhàn ràng mínzhòng wèi jiàn qí lì, xiān shòu qí huò. Shǒuxiān shi qǐyè.6 Yuè 17 rì zhì 25 rì, měiguó màoyì dàibiǎo shǔ jǔxíng tīngzhèng huì, yāoqǐng qǐyè tǎolùn shìfǒu duì zhōngguó jiā guānshuì, jiéguǒ qǐyè yī miàndào fǎnduì. Rú New Balance zài měiguó shēngchǎn xiézi, tāmen cóng zhōngguó jìnkǒu xiédǐ, xié miàn děng yuánliào. Gāi gōngsī fù zǒngcái gāo màn (Monica Gorman) shuō, chuān pǔ jiā guānshuì shǐ yuánliào chéngběn shàngshēng,`shānghài wǒmen de yíngyùn nénglì.' Jiādiàn shāng yé dí (Yedi) xiāoshòu zǒngjiān dí wǎ hè lǐ (Bobby Djavaheri) shuō, měiguó yǐ bù shēngchǎn xiàng qì zhá guō zhī lèi de jiādiàn, duō cóng zhōngguó jìnkǒu. Chuān pǔ duì zhèxiē chǎnpǐn jiā guānshuì, quán yóu měiguó jìnkǒu shāng chéngdān.`Zhè zhēn ràng rén kūxiàobùdé.' Chúle qǐyè, xiāofèi dàzhòng yěshì shòuhài zhě. Shíshàng míngpái láo fū luó lún (Ralph Lauren) dàibiǎo, zài tīngzhèng huì shàng biǎoshì, jiā guānshuì dǎozhì tāmen de kèhù `fù de jiàgé shàngzhǎng, gōngyìng liàng jiǎnshǎo.'Luòshānjī kuài shíshàng fúshì shāng Forever 21 yě shuō, guānshuì `bùshì yóu wǒmen zìjǐ, jiùshì yóu kèhù fùdān.' Guānshuì zhàn wéijí 90 wàn gè zhí quē “niǔyuē shíbào” jīnnián liù yuè yǐnshù yánjiū, zì 2018 nián 2 yuè yǐlái, měiguó shòu guānshuì yǐngxiǎng de chǎnpǐn, zhìjīn jiàgé yǐ shàngzhǎng jìn 3%, ér wèi shòu guānshuì yǐngxiǎng zhě zé xiàdié 2.3%, Měi gè měiguó jiātíng píngjūn yǐjīng yīnwèi guānshuì ér duō fù 414 měiyuán. Zhèxiē zēngjiā de zhīchū, dàduō huā zài yībān shēnghuó yòngpǐn. Guó jiā língshòu xiéhuì (National Retail Federation) yánjiū xiǎnshì, ruò chuān pǔ duì zhōngguó jìnkǒu pǐn quánmiàn jiā guānshuì, měiguó mínzhòng yī nián jiāng duō huā 44 yì měiyuán mǎi yīfú,25 yì měiyuán mǎi xiézi,16 yì měiyuán mǎi jiājù. Zhè yìwèi mínzhòng néng huā zài qítā shāngpǐn de qián jiǎnshǎo, qítā lǐngyù de gōngzuò jīhuì jiāng xiāoshī. Mù dí fēnxī (Moody's Analytics) jīngjì xué jiā zàn dí yù gū, měiguó jiāng yīncǐ jiǎnshǎo 90 wàn gè gōngzuò jīhuì. Chúle jīnqián sǔnshī, mínzhòng lián zōngjiào xìnyǎng yě shòuhài. Shū shāng hā bō kēlínsī (Harper Collins) zhíxíng zhǎng xiū wǎ dé (Mark Schoenwald), zài tīngzhèng huì shàng biǎoshì, zhōngguó shì quánqiú zuìdà shèngjīng yìn zhì zhě, měiguó de shèngjīng duō shì yóu zhōngguó jìnkǒu. Guānshuì dǎozhì shèngjīng chéngběn shàngzhǎng, wèilái jiàotáng kǒngpà mǎi bù qǐ shèngjīng, tā chēng cǐ wéi `shèngjīng shuì',`chuān pǔ zhèngfǔ kǒngpà yàgēn er méi xiǎngdào guānshuì yě huì dǎjí shèngjīng.' ●Guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò ￭měiguó shòu guānshuì zhàn yǐngxiǎng chǎnpǐn jiàgé zhǎng jìn 3% ￭chuān pǔ mín diào shū duìshǒu 10 gè bǎifēndiǎn' ▪chuān pǔ:39% ▪Bài dēng:49% Zhù: Chǎnpǐn jiàgé tǒngjì qíjiān wèi 2018/2 zhì 2019/4, jiàgé yǐ 2018/2 wèi jīqī; chuān pǔ mín diào wèi 2019/6/9 zhì 6/12 diàochá tǒngjì zīliào láiyuán: Niǔyuē shíbào,Real Clear Politics zhěnglǐ: Yángshǎoqiáng guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò guānshuì zhàn xiān zhǎng jià cháo, chuān pǔ zhīchí shuàizhí zhí luò jiù chūkǒu, shǒu dù lái tái cùxiāo nóng chǎn hái yǒu nóngmín. Zì 2018 nián 3 yuè chuān pǔ jiā zhēng gāng lǚ shuì hòu, gèguó duì měiguó nóngchǎnpǐn zhǎnkāi bàofù, nóngmín chéngwéi zhíjiē shòuhài zhě. Jīnnián 5 yuè měiguó nóngyè bù xuānbù tígōng 160 yì měiyuán bǔzhù, shènzhì lián táiwān yě chéngwéi měiguó nóng rén de jiùmìng dàocǎo. Měiguó nóngyè bù hǎiwài fúwù shǔ shǔzhǎng ài sī lǐ (Ken Isley), jīnnián 4 yuè lǜ 49 wèi měiguó nóng chǎn qǐyè dàibiǎo fǎng tái, zhè shì měiguó nóngyè bù shǒucì chóu zǔ màoyì dàibiǎo tuán lái tái. Táiwān shì měiguó dàdòu, xiǎomài de dì bā, dì sì dà chūkǒu shìchǎng. Měiguó nóngchǎnpǐn zāo gèguó bàofù, lián nóngyè bù yě bùdé bù zǔtuán lái tái cùxiāo, zhè xiǎnshì chuān pǔ jíshǐ zuǐyìng, shíjì shang tā de yālì bìng bù xiǎo. Chuān pǔ de zhīchí qúnzhòng, yǐ xìnyǎng jīdūjiào de báirén lánlǐng jiēcéng, nóngmín wéi zhǔ. Dàn zhōng měi màoyì zhàn hòu, shòuhài zuìshēn de jiùshì zhè qún rén. Mínzhǔ dǎng zǒngtǒng cān xuǎn rén, mùqián mín diào dì yī de bài dēng (Joe Biden), jīnnián 5 yuè jiù pīpíng chuān pǔ de màoyì zhàn `wánquán gǎo cuò fāngxiàng',`wéiyī shòuhài zhě jiùshì měiguó nóngmín yǔ gōngrén.'Cǐ jǔ zhèng shì yào shōugē chuān pǔ màoyì zhàn xià de mínyuàn. Jù xià cì měiguó zǒngtǒng dàxuǎn zhǐ shèng bù dào yī nián bàn, zhè zhǒng yālì shǐ chuān pǔ xū jǐnkuài jiějué zhōng měi màoyì zhàn. Jiùsuàn bùnéng mǎshàng dáchéng xiéyì, yě yào sùzào chū néng bī duìfāng ràngbù de xíngxiàng. Zhè shì běn cì `chuān xí huì'bèihòu de qiánzài yìyì. Yào xuǎnjǔ de rén, yīdìng bǐjiào jí. Chuān pǔ guòqù shàncháng shā guòtóu, yā dàodǐ de shāngyè tánpàn shǒufǎ, yòng zài zìjiā qì yè, kě wéi dáchéng chángqí mùbiāo ér chéngshòu duǎnqí yālì, dàn rújīn yòng zài xiāngduì ruòshì de lǎobǎixìng, duǎnqí xuǎnpiào xiàoyìng jiù zúyǐ dài gěi tā jídà yālì. Rú CNBC pínglùn:`Chuān pǔ bìxū shèfǎ cóng tā zìjǐ wā de dòng lǐ pá chūlái.'Rúhé shǐ mínzhòng bù yīn màoyì zhàn shīxuè guòduō ér diū xuǎnpiào, zhè cái shì chuān pǔ jiē xiàlái de dà nàn tí. Gèng duō shāng zhōu wénzhāng
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Why is Trump eager to see Xi Jinping? The answer is in the price of the Bible
Business weekly
· 141 people track
Yang Shaoqiang 1 hour ago
"I am not here to lose." Trump is full of confidence in the 2020 re-election, but only if he first settles the grievances caused by the trade war.
"Chengdu China, defeated China," may be the mood of President Trump. The Sino-US trade war has made Chupu a great revival, but on June 28th, the "Chuan Xihui" reflected that the American people were blaming, and Trump had to speed up the pressure. This will also be the biggest variable in his re-election.
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This time, the "Chuan Xi Hui" is different from the past: Trump first took the initiative to release the news, and China waited until 3 or 4 days before confirming. Why is Trump eager to see Xi Jinping?
On June 18, Trump announced his re-election, but the poll showed that his starting point was behind. The National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the Wall Street Journal poll showed in June that 52% of the people were "very uncomfortable" for Trump's re-election.
Adding tariffs to China, the US companies shouted against
In 2016, Trump won the election and wanted to worship the key swing state and give him the gift. But the financial website CNBC quoted the polls, and now Trump is behind the Democratic States in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and other swing states.
The reason for the backwardness of the polls is that the trade war has made the people unsuccessful and suffers first. The first is the enterprise. From June 17th to 25th, the US Trade Representative Office held a hearing to invite companies to discuss whether to impose tariffs on China. As a result, the company opposed it.
For example, New Balance produces shoes in the United States, and they import raw materials such as soles and uppers from China. Monica Gorman, the company's vice president, said that Trump's tariffs have increased raw material costs and "damaged our operational capabilities."
Bobby Djavaheri, director of home appliance maker Yedi, said the US has not produced home appliances like gas fryers, mostly imported from China. Trump imposes tariffs on these products, all of which are borne by US importers. "This is really ridiculous."
In addition to businesses, the consumer is also a victim. Ralph Lauren, the fashion brand, said at the hearing that the increase in tariffs caused their customers to “pay the price up and reduce the supply.” Los Angeles fast fashion apparel company Forever 21 also said that the tariff is “not by us. It is the burden of the customer."
Customs warfare endangers 900,000 jobs
The New York Times quoted research in June this year. Since February 2018, US tariff-affected products have risen by nearly 3%, while those not affected by tariffs have fallen by 2.3%. The tariff is increased by $414.
Most of these increased expenditures are spent on general household items. According to a study by the National Retail Federation, if Trump imposes a full tariff on Chinese imports, the American people will spend an additional 4.4 billion dollars a year on clothes, $2.5 billion on shoes, and $1.6 billion on furniture.
This means that people can spend less on other goods, and jobs in other areas will disappear. Moody's Analytics economist Zandi estimates that the United States will reduce 900,000 jobs.
In addition to the loss of money, the people suffer from religious beliefs. Mark Schoenwald, the chief executive of Harper Collins, said at the hearing that China is the world's largest biblical printer, and that the American Bible is mostly imported from China. Tariffs have caused the cost of the Bible to rise. I am afraid that the church will not be able to afford the Bible in the future. He calls this the "Bible Tax". "The Trump administration may not think that tariffs will also strike the Bible."
● tariffs and war prices have risen, and Trump’s support rate has fallen straight
■ US prices affected by tariff wars rose by nearly 3%
■ Trump's transfer of opponents by 10 percentage points
▪ Trump: 39%
▪ Biden: 49%
Note: The product price statistics period is 2018/2 to 2019/4, the price is based on 2018/2; the Trump poll is 2019/6/9 to 6/12 survey statistics.
Source: New York Times, Real Clear Politics Finishing: Yang Shaoqiang
The tariff war has risen in price, and the support rate of Trump has fallen straight.
The tariff war has risen in price, and the support rate of Trump has fallen straight.
Save the export, first come to Taiwan to promote agricultural products
There are also farmers. Since Trump's tax on steel and aluminum in March 2018, countries have retaliated against US agricultural products, and farmers have become direct victims. In May of this year, the US Department of Agriculture announced a $16 billion grant, and even Taiwan has become a lifeline for American farmers.
Ken Isley, Director of the US Department of Agriculture's Overseas Services Agency, led 49 representatives of US agribusiness companies to visit Taiwan in April this year. This is the first time the US Department of Agriculture has organized a trade delegation to Taiwan.
Taiwan is the eighth and fourth largest export market for US soybeans and wheat. American agricultural products were retaliated by various countries, and even the Ministry of Agriculture had to organize a group to come to Taiwan for promotion. This shows that even if Trump is hard, his pressure is not small.
Trump’s support for the masses is dominated by white-collar workers and peasants who believe in Christianity. But after the Sino-US trade war, the group was the one who suffered the most. Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate and the current pollster, criticized Trump’s trade war in May this year, "completely wrong direction." "The only victims are American farmers and workers." It is to reap the grievances of the Trump trade war.
Less than a year and a half away from the next US presidential election, this pressure will make Trump resolve the Sino-US trade war as soon as possible. Even if you can't reach an agreement right away, you have to create an image that can force the other party to make concessions. This is the potential behind this "Chuan Xi Hui".
Those who want to vote must be more anxious. In the past, Trump was good at killing the head and pressing the business negotiation methods. In his own business, he could bear short-term pressure to achieve long-term goals, but nowadays it is used by relatively disadvantaged people. The short-term vote effect is enough to bring him great pressure. For example, CNBC commented: "Trop must try to climb out of the hole he dug himself." How to make people not lose votes because of excessive trade and blood loss is the next big problem for Trump.
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