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http://translate.google.com/transla...cn/china/2018-08-25/doc-ihicsiaw9850343.shtml
Japanese experts: In the future, China and Japan will be closer in strategy, not to rule out USA as an opponent.
August 25, 2018, 13:37 World Wide Web
0
Original title: Japanese experts: In the future, Sino-Japanese relations will be closer in strategy, and the United States will not be ruled out.
"Plaza Agreement" signature site
Since the establishment of the Trump administration in 2016, the trend of trade protectionism has been strengthened in the world. After the war in 1945, under the world free trade system, the Japanese economy was restored and developed. However, Japan initially adopted a trade protectionist policy, and then it was excessive to the free trade policy. Therefore, looking back at history, although the development of Japan and China is sequential, the historical experience of the development of the two countries seems similar. In response to the US trade protectionist policy, Japan is an ally of the United States, but now there are many voices in Japan that should work with China.
Undoubtedly, Japan supports free trade, and Japan and China have many interests in the economic and trade level. From this perspective, Japan and China have many opportunities to cooperate in dealing with the United States. At present, the US trade protectionism policy has not caused Japan to bear excessive economic and trade pressures, and China, which supports free trade, still has higher tariffs on imported Japanese goods. Therefore, if Japan and China can cancel each other's trade barriers and promote the realization of the highly liberalized Japan-China-Korea FTA, it will not only help the stability of Japan-China economic relations, but also help the two countries jointly safeguard world free trade. system.
At this stage, Japan is most worried about the high tariffs imposed on Japanese cars by the United States. Not long ago, the new round of economic and trade negotiations between Japan and the United States ended, but the two sides did not make any progress on the issue of Japanese auto tariffs. In this way, if the United States finally decides to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars, then Japan-US relations will quickly cool down. By then, the space for cooperation between Japan and China will increase.
I noticed that during the current Sino-US trade war, many Chinese media and think tanks mentioned Japan's "square agreement" in the 1980s, and they introduced and studied them. The "Plaza Agreement" is an agreement that allowed the yen to appreciate and the dollar to depreciate in the 1980s. The agreement made Japan a bubble economy and fell into a long-term economic downturn for decades. It can be seen now that the US policy toward Japan at that time was indeed similar to the current US policy toward China.
In the 1970s, the United States failed in the Vietnam War, and it also faced the "dollar crisis" and the "oil crisis", resulting in a decline in overall national strength. In the 1980s, during the Reagan administration's search for a "strong America," the economic and trade war was born in time. At that time, Japan’s Nakasone Yasuhiro government took a side to actively negotiate and strengthen the Japan-US alliance policy at the security level, in an effort to prevent the expansion of economic and trade frictions. Nakasone did strengthen Japan-US security relations, but did this prompt the United States to reduce its pressure on Japan on the economic and trade deficit? The answer is no.
Referring to the lessons of Japan's "Plaza Agreement" and then looking at the current Sino-US trade war, there is a problem. That is, the United States in the 1980s and the current United States have the same concept of treating competitors. The United States is now examining China with the theory of "hegemonic change." The United States believes that it is possible to be surpassed by China, while in a certain sense, "seriously" contain China. In the United States in the 1980s, although it was also full of "Japan threat theory," it is far less intense than the "China threat theory." Therefore, with reference to the lessons of Japan, China must be more cautious in dealing with the United States than Japan.
The Japanese-American trade war began to appear in the 1950s and lasted for decades. Therefore, the tension between China and the United States in the economic and trade field will not be short-term and will continue in the future. In this case, Japan-China relations will likely stabilize in the long run. Compared with the present, the future Sino-Japanese relations will not be tactical, but will be closer in strategy. Just as in the 1970s and 1980s, Japan and China had the precedent for close cooperation and common confrontation with the Soviet Union. In the future, Japan and China will not rule out the possibility of joining the United States as an adversary. ▲ (Author Kawashima Shinji, Professor, Department of Comprehensive Culture, University of Tokyo, Japan; Chen Yang Translation)
Keywords: Sino-Japanese trade protection
http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-08-25/doc-ihicsiaw9055537.shtml
日专家:今后中日在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美为对手
日专家:今后中日在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美为对手
0
原标题：日本专家：今后中日关系在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美国为对手
“广场协议”签字现场
2016年特朗普政府成立以来，贸易保护主义风潮在世界有所加强。1945年战后，在世界自由贸易体制下，日本经济获得了恢复与发展。然而，日本最初采取的是贸易保护主义政策，随后才向自由贸易政策过度。因此，回顾历史，日中两国的发展虽有先后，但两国发展的历史经验看起来则是相似的。在应对美国的贸易保护主义政策方面，日本尽管是美国的盟友，但是现在日本国内也有很多声音认为应该与中国携手合作。
毋庸置疑，日本支持自由贸易主义，而且日本与中国在经济贸易层面有很多利益共同点。从这个角度而言，在应对美国方面，日中两国有很多可以合作的机会。时下美国的贸易保护主义政策并没有致使日本承受过大的经贸压力，而且支持自由贸易的中国，在进口日本商品上依然有较高的关税。因此，如果今后日中两国能够取消彼此的贸易壁垒，推动高度自由化的日中韩FTA的实现，那么不仅有助于日中经济关系的稳定，而且也有助于两国共同维护世界自由贸易体制。
现阶段，日本最担心的是美国对日本汽车征收高额关税。不久前，日美新一轮的经贸谈判结束了，但是双方在日本汽车关税问题上并没有取得任何进展。这样一来，如果美国最终决定对日本汽车征收高额关税的话，那么日美关系将迅速降温。届时，日中两国间的合作空间将会提升。
我注意到，在当前的中美贸易战期间，许多中国媒体、智库都提到了日本上世纪80年代的“广场协议”，并纷纷进行介绍与研究。“广场协议”是在上世纪80年代让日元升值、美元贬值的协议。该协议使得日本出现泡沫经济，并在那之后的数十年里陷入长期的经济低迷状态。现在可以看出，那个时候美国的对日政策与现在美国的对华政策确实是类似的。
上世纪70年代，美国在越南战争中失败，而且还要直面“美元危机”和“石油危机”，导致综合国力降低。80年代，里根政权在寻求“强势美国”期间，经济贸易战争应时而生。当时，日本的中曾根康弘政府采取一边进行积极谈判，一边在安保层面强化日美同盟的政策，以此来极力防止经贸摩擦扩大。中曾根确实强化了日美安保关系，但这是否促使美国降低在经贸赤字问题上的对日压力了呢？答案是没有。
参考日本“广场协议”的经验教训，再来看现在的中美贸易战的话，那么就有一个问题了，即上世纪80年代的美国与现在的美国在对待竞争者的观念是否相同。现在的美国，正在以“霸权更替”的理论审视中国。美国一边认为自己有可能被中国超越，一边又在某种意义上“认真”地遏制中国。在上世纪80年代的美国，虽然也充斥着“日本威胁论”，但远没有现在“中国威胁论”这样激烈。因此，参考日本的经验教训，中国在应对美国的时候，必须要比当年的日本更加谨慎才可以。
日美贸易战从上世纪50年代就开始出现，持续了数十年间。因此，中美在经贸领域的紧张关系不会是短期的，今后也会继续持续。这样的话，日中关系将有可能长期安定化。与现在相比，今后的中日关系不是在战术上，而是在战略上将会更加亲近。正像上世纪七八十年代，日中两国有紧密合作、共同对抗苏联的先例那样，今后也不排除日中两国将美国作为对手，携手合作的可能。▲（作者川岛真，是日本东京大学综合文化研究科教授； 陈洋翻译）
Japanese experts: In the future, China and Japan will be closer in strategy, not to rule out USA as an opponent.
August 25, 2018, 13:37 World Wide Web
0
Original title: Japanese experts: In the future, Sino-Japanese relations will be closer in strategy, and the United States will not be ruled out.
Since the establishment of the Trump administration in 2016, the trend of trade protectionism has been strengthened in the world. After the war in 1945, under the world free trade system, the Japanese economy was restored and developed. However, Japan initially adopted a trade protectionist policy, and then it was excessive to the free trade policy. Therefore, looking back at history, although the development of Japan and China is sequential, the historical experience of the development of the two countries seems similar. In response to the US trade protectionist policy, Japan is an ally of the United States, but now there are many voices in Japan that should work with China.
Undoubtedly, Japan supports free trade, and Japan and China have many interests in the economic and trade level. From this perspective, Japan and China have many opportunities to cooperate in dealing with the United States. At present, the US trade protectionism policy has not caused Japan to bear excessive economic and trade pressures, and China, which supports free trade, still has higher tariffs on imported Japanese goods. Therefore, if Japan and China can cancel each other's trade barriers and promote the realization of the highly liberalized Japan-China-Korea FTA, it will not only help the stability of Japan-China economic relations, but also help the two countries jointly safeguard world free trade. system.
At this stage, Japan is most worried about the high tariffs imposed on Japanese cars by the United States. Not long ago, the new round of economic and trade negotiations between Japan and the United States ended, but the two sides did not make any progress on the issue of Japanese auto tariffs. In this way, if the United States finally decides to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars, then Japan-US relations will quickly cool down. By then, the space for cooperation between Japan and China will increase.
I noticed that during the current Sino-US trade war, many Chinese media and think tanks mentioned Japan's "square agreement" in the 1980s, and they introduced and studied them. The "Plaza Agreement" is an agreement that allowed the yen to appreciate and the dollar to depreciate in the 1980s. The agreement made Japan a bubble economy and fell into a long-term economic downturn for decades. It can be seen now that the US policy toward Japan at that time was indeed similar to the current US policy toward China.
In the 1970s, the United States failed in the Vietnam War, and it also faced the "dollar crisis" and the "oil crisis", resulting in a decline in overall national strength. In the 1980s, during the Reagan administration's search for a "strong America," the economic and trade war was born in time. At that time, Japan’s Nakasone Yasuhiro government took a side to actively negotiate and strengthen the Japan-US alliance policy at the security level, in an effort to prevent the expansion of economic and trade frictions. Nakasone did strengthen Japan-US security relations, but did this prompt the United States to reduce its pressure on Japan on the economic and trade deficit? The answer is no.
Referring to the lessons of Japan's "Plaza Agreement" and then looking at the current Sino-US trade war, there is a problem. That is, the United States in the 1980s and the current United States have the same concept of treating competitors. The United States is now examining China with the theory of "hegemonic change." The United States believes that it is possible to be surpassed by China, while in a certain sense, "seriously" contain China. In the United States in the 1980s, although it was also full of "Japan threat theory," it is far less intense than the "China threat theory." Therefore, with reference to the lessons of Japan, China must be more cautious in dealing with the United States than Japan.
The Japanese-American trade war began to appear in the 1950s and lasted for decades. Therefore, the tension between China and the United States in the economic and trade field will not be short-term and will continue in the future. In this case, Japan-China relations will likely stabilize in the long run. Compared with the present, the future Sino-Japanese relations will not be tactical, but will be closer in strategy. Just as in the 1970s and 1980s, Japan and China had the precedent for close cooperation and common confrontation with the Soviet Union. In the future, Japan and China will not rule out the possibility of joining the United States as an adversary. ▲ (Author Kawashima Shinji, Professor, Department of Comprehensive Culture, University of Tokyo, Japan; Chen Yang Translation)
Keywords: Sino-Japanese trade protection
http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-08-25/doc-ihicsiaw9055537.shtml
日专家:今后中日在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美为对手
日专家:今后中日在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美为对手
0
原标题：日本专家：今后中日关系在战略上会更亲近 不排除以美国为对手
2016年特朗普政府成立以来，贸易保护主义风潮在世界有所加强。1945年战后，在世界自由贸易体制下，日本经济获得了恢复与发展。然而，日本最初采取的是贸易保护主义政策，随后才向自由贸易政策过度。因此，回顾历史，日中两国的发展虽有先后，但两国发展的历史经验看起来则是相似的。在应对美国的贸易保护主义政策方面，日本尽管是美国的盟友，但是现在日本国内也有很多声音认为应该与中国携手合作。
毋庸置疑，日本支持自由贸易主义，而且日本与中国在经济贸易层面有很多利益共同点。从这个角度而言，在应对美国方面，日中两国有很多可以合作的机会。时下美国的贸易保护主义政策并没有致使日本承受过大的经贸压力，而且支持自由贸易的中国，在进口日本商品上依然有较高的关税。因此，如果今后日中两国能够取消彼此的贸易壁垒，推动高度自由化的日中韩FTA的实现，那么不仅有助于日中经济关系的稳定，而且也有助于两国共同维护世界自由贸易体制。
现阶段，日本最担心的是美国对日本汽车征收高额关税。不久前，日美新一轮的经贸谈判结束了，但是双方在日本汽车关税问题上并没有取得任何进展。这样一来，如果美国最终决定对日本汽车征收高额关税的话，那么日美关系将迅速降温。届时，日中两国间的合作空间将会提升。
我注意到，在当前的中美贸易战期间，许多中国媒体、智库都提到了日本上世纪80年代的“广场协议”，并纷纷进行介绍与研究。“广场协议”是在上世纪80年代让日元升值、美元贬值的协议。该协议使得日本出现泡沫经济，并在那之后的数十年里陷入长期的经济低迷状态。现在可以看出，那个时候美国的对日政策与现在美国的对华政策确实是类似的。
上世纪70年代，美国在越南战争中失败，而且还要直面“美元危机”和“石油危机”，导致综合国力降低。80年代，里根政权在寻求“强势美国”期间，经济贸易战争应时而生。当时，日本的中曾根康弘政府采取一边进行积极谈判，一边在安保层面强化日美同盟的政策，以此来极力防止经贸摩擦扩大。中曾根确实强化了日美安保关系，但这是否促使美国降低在经贸赤字问题上的对日压力了呢？答案是没有。
参考日本“广场协议”的经验教训，再来看现在的中美贸易战的话，那么就有一个问题了，即上世纪80年代的美国与现在的美国在对待竞争者的观念是否相同。现在的美国，正在以“霸权更替”的理论审视中国。美国一边认为自己有可能被中国超越，一边又在某种意义上“认真”地遏制中国。在上世纪80年代的美国，虽然也充斥着“日本威胁论”，但远没有现在“中国威胁论”这样激烈。因此，参考日本的经验教训，中国在应对美国的时候，必须要比当年的日本更加谨慎才可以。
日美贸易战从上世纪50年代就开始出现，持续了数十年间。因此，中美在经贸领域的紧张关系不会是短期的，今后也会继续持续。这样的话，日中关系将有可能长期安定化。与现在相比，今后的中日关系不是在战术上，而是在战略上将会更加亲近。正像上世纪七八十年代，日中两国有紧密合作、共同对抗苏联的先例那样，今后也不排除日中两国将美国作为对手，携手合作的可能。▲（作者川岛真，是日本东京大学综合文化研究科教授； 陈洋翻译）
The heroic PLA will prove all its critics wrong in the next world war!
