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https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-08-05/doc-ihytcerm8662985.shtml
解放军未来10年路在何方：扩充核武库将成重要选项
解放军未来10年路在何方：扩充核武库将成重要选项
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[文/ 观察者网专栏作者 施洋]
本周适逢中国人民解放军建军92周年的八一建军节，解放军在授予一系列荣誉的同时，愈加自信地展示建军以来取得的成果。
八月一日，解放军迎来了建军92周年的纪念日，单纯来看这一时间并非逢五逢十的整数年，但由于今年适逢中华人民共和国成立七十周年，且今年又是人民海军和人民空军成立70周年，加上近日国防部刚刚发布了《新时代的中国国防》白皮书，因此今年八一建军节里我军所透露的各种消息，无疑都令人高度关注。
在建军节前和节日当天，有关解放军的消息可谓接连不断：军委主席习近平签署通令，给4名个人、1个单位记功，向1名获得荣誉称号的个人颁授奖章和证书，向3个获得荣誉称号的单位颁授奖旗；中央军委举行仪式，正式给10位军官警官晋升上将军衔警衔；空军发布宣传短片，首次公开中俄战略轰炸机“同框”开展巡航的画面；首艘国产航母再次出港进行海试；东海和福建沿海的两处军事演习同时开始……
这些活动中，既有对解放军军队荣誉的鼓励与传承，又有对高级指挥员的晋衔调整，有公开解放军与外军深入合作协同巡航的重要情况，也有对解放军重要的大型主战装备的关键性测试。这表明建军节既不是解放军放松警惕的“休息日”，也不是形式主义的“歌颂节”，比起单纯的建军节庆祝，这一系列动作所包含的意义显然要大得多。
即使是建军节，解放军的发展也没有一点停歇
从上世纪90年代初冷战结束到现在，经过接近30年的发展，解放军的建设毫无疑问取得了巨大的进步和发展。这从我国武装力量在应对周边地区和国际上的各类重大事件中的表现中就有明显的体现。
90年代初中国在远洋上毫无存在感，无法保护本国的海外商船，只能任由别国海军进行临检拿捕；在南沙等远海水域缺乏底气，在维护本国主权时只能将军事力量伪装成看上去“无害”的渔政部门，而在勘探开发本国海上自然资源遭遇外国力量干涉时最终只能退避三舍；甚至在中国近海，美国航母战斗群也能随意接近，并且为我国合理合法的军事行动制造障碍……
而到了本世纪的第二个十年，中国不仅已经可以运筹数千公里外的撤侨和远海护航行动，也能够组织规模不小的舰艇甚至航母编队和航空兵机群深入大洋进行实战化演练；中国在南中国海建立起了包括多座大型岛礁基地在内的堡垒水域，也具备了对抗单支航母打击大队和假想敌的区域拒止/反介入作战能力，能够在许多重要而关键的场合为维护国家利益提供坚实的基础。
区域拒止/反介入作战能力是解放军的一个重要的新成就
能够取得这样的成绩，一要依靠的自然是解放军对于高技术条件信息化战争央视的不断学习与对解放军自身有针对性的体制编制改革与战法学法革新。这从近年来我军不断围绕实战要求对训练大纲、部队编制、指挥流程、决策体系和领导格局进行大规模系统性变革，特别是进入新时代以来解放军对于以传统四总部为特征的军委领导管理体制进行的彻底改革，毫无疑问是中国军队能够面对当今世界的挑战的主心骨；除此之外，中国经济高速增长提供的资金支持与军事工业厚积薄发所提供的先进武器装备，是武装新时代人民解放军成为一支令人望而生畏力量的关键。
在过去的十年左右时间里，我们见证了中国军队陆海空军装备领域的突飞猛进，新一代的解放军装备体系也在逐渐成型。按照中共十九大“确保到2020年基本实现机械化，信息化建设取得重大进展，战略能力有大的提升”的建设目标，随着2019年进入下半年，距离2020年的“交卷”时间也越来越近，解放军的新一代机械化、信息化装备多数也已经实现了公开。诸如以99A主战坦克、15式轻型坦克、04A步兵战车、“大八轮”车族、“东风猛士”车族、05A自行火炮等一系列陆军地面装备已经批量装备部队；以002型航空母舰、055型大型导弹驱逐舰、052D导弹驱逐舰、054A导弹护卫舰、056轻型护卫舰和901/903A综合补给舰为代表的新一代水面作战舰艇也已经全面成型；包括歼-20、歼-16、歼-10C、轰-6K、运-20等新型战机为代表的新一代空军作战力量虽然尚未完全成型，但也已经勾勒出了中国空军的空中作战体系大概……
先进在武器装备已经让解放军在世界尖端技术上占据一席之地
尽管这些新装备的换装还在继续之中，解放军也还保有不少老旧装备，但无论是装备性能还是装备数量，当代解放军尽管在不少领域距离世界第一的美国军队还差距甚远，但绝对已经是争夺世界第二的有利竞争选手。不过除了这些传统领域的装备之外，解放军的新一代装备以及一些新概念武器，某种程度上才是未来解放军发展中的新看点和重中之重。
首先要关注的是解放军的新一代战略打击力量。长期以来，解放军都以液体燃料的东风-5系列和固体的东风-31/31A/31AG系列洲际弹道导弹作为战略核打击的核心力量。这两类弹道导弹尽管一直处于不断升级之中，但二者的整体架构已经不再先进，进一步发展的潜力也较为有限。这也就是解放军发展包括东风-41和新一代液体洲际弹道导弹，甚至可能同时发展其他类型洲际导弹的重要原因。
虽然我军现役的导弹型号很多，但不少的技术架构已经老旧
在导弹这样的载具更新换代的同时，对于战略核威慑至关重要的核弹头数量也是一个重要的因素。中国的核武库规模至今仍然处于几大核大国中靠后的位置，尽管这让中国在应对西方一些国家主张要求将中国也拉入全面削减战略武器条约的谈判之时占据道德高地，但也让中国在真正面对真刀真枪的核威慑对抗时处于不利地位。为了增强中国核武库的威慑力，虽然迅速扩充核武库的规模未必会是第一选择，但将更多的核武器转移到洲际导弹级别的战略载具上而不是如东风-21这样的“中程核威慑武器”上来，显然会是伴随中国战略打击力量发展的一个趋势。
除了关键性的战略威慑武器外，解放军的战役级武器系统的发展也是未来一段时间里值得关注的重要领域。最初被归入这一范畴内的武器是我军中东风-11和东风-15这一级别的短程弹道导弹，当时这类武器的主要用途是进行对台第一波次的火力准备和压制。随着短程弹道导弹改进型号的增多和东风-21系列改进型号也开始执行常规打击任务，加上一系列远程空地巡航导弹的服役，解放军的战役打击力量不仅在手段上更加丰富，在作战范围上也覆盖和超越了第一岛链；随着东风-21D反舰弹道导弹的横空出世，这种战役打击武器的对手已经超出了传统的地面软硬目标的范围，而延伸到了海上以航空母舰为代表的海上大型水面舰艇上；当代高超音速武器技术的引入，又将中国的战役打击力量进一步强化。尽管目前运用这一技术的相关武器还处在严格保密之中，但毫无疑问，多款使用高超音速技术，可以执行反舰和对陆攻击任务，且射程超出第一岛链甚至覆盖一、二岛链范围的新一代战役打击武器将成为新时期解放军在增强区域拒止/反介入作战领域的关键武器。
高超音速武器将成为解放军的关键杀手锏之一
除了这些“硬碰硬”的武器之外，各类无人平台在解放军中的运用也值得进一步关注。虽然从概念上说，无人机在解放军中服役也已经有了好几十年的历史，无人机大规模装备解放军用于诸如炮兵校射、战场侦察等活动的历史也有相当的时间，但对于我军作战体系中各种无人机所扮演的角色，外界的了解认识其实并不深刻。由于在当下的外贸市场上，类似“翼龙”、“彩虹”系列的察打一体无人机的销售炙手可热，加上我军也确实装备了“翼龙”系列的自用型号——“攻击”系列察打一体无人机，因此在不少人看来，察打一体无人机这样面向治安战而生的无人机是我国当代无人机的发展方向。但从解放军的使用情况看，各种大型战略侦察无人机以及研制中的预警、电子战无人机在实际行动中所起到的作用则往往更加重大。在近年与外军的多次交锋之中，中国的无人机都依靠其自身的性能特点扮演了关键的作用。相信随着解放军在这一领域取得的进展不断深入，有关我军在先进无人机领域取得的进展及其实际应用的相关情况，应该会更多为外界所知。
对解放军而言，在经历了十余年同时努力实现机械化和信息化的快速发展之后，解放军的机械化发展已经有了相对清晰明确的目标和方向，而我军信息化的目标则在我军建设的不断探索之中稳步前进，对于已经建军92周年的人民解放军，我们有理由为它取得更大的成就充满信心。
Where is the PLA's road in the next 10 years: expanding the nuclear arsenal will become an important option
Where is the PLA's road in the next 10 years: expanding the nuclear arsenal will become an important option
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[Text / Observer Network columnist Shi Yang]
This week coincides with the August 1st Army Day of the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. While granting a series of honors, the People's Liberation Army has more confidently demonstrated the achievements since the establishment of the army.
On August 1, the People's Liberation Army ushered in the commemoration day of the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the army. It is not an integer year since the beginning of this period, but this year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and this year is the people. The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Navy and the People's Air Force, and the recent launch of the "New China's National Defense" white paper by the Ministry of National Defense, the news revealed by our military during the August 1st Army Day is undoubtedly highly regarded.
Before the Jianjun Festival and on the day of the festival, the news about the People's Liberation Army was successive: the Chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping signed a general order, and recorded four individuals and one unit, and awarded medals and certificates to one individual who received the honorary title. The unit that received the honorary title awarded the award flag; the Central Military Commission held a ceremony to officially give 10 military officers and police officers the rank of generals; the Air Force issued a publicity video to publicize the Sino-Russian strategic bomber "same frame" for the first time; the first domestic aircraft carrier I will leave Hong Kong for a sea trial again; two military exercises along the coast of the East China Sea and Fujian will begin at the same time...
Among these activities, there are not only the encouragement and inheritance of the honor of the PLA army, but also the adjustment of the ranks of senior commanders. There are important situations in which the PLA and the foreign troops cooperate in intensive cooperation and cruise, and there are also important main battle equipments for the PLA. Critical testing. This shows that the Army Day is neither a "rest day" for the PLA to relax its vigilance, nor a formal "Cultural Festival". This series of actions is obviously much more meaningful than the simple Day of the Army.
Even on the Army Day, the PLA’s development has not stopped.
From the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s to the present, after nearly 30 years of development, the construction of the People's Liberation Army has undoubtedly made great progress and development. This is evident from the performance of our armed forces in dealing with various major events in the surrounding areas and internationally.
In the early 1990s, China did not have a sense of existence in the ocean. It could not protect its overseas merchant ships. It could only be allowed to be arrested by other countries’ navies. It lacked the sufficiency in the far-sea waters such as Nansha, and only camouflaged military forces in safeguarding its sovereignty. It becomes a “harmless” fishery department, and when it comes to the exploration and development of its natural marine resources, it can only be retreat when it encounters foreign forces. Even in China’s offshore, the US aircraft carrier battle group can be freely approached and reasonable and legal for our country. Military operations create obstacles...
In the second decade of this century, China has not only been able to manage evacuation and offshore escort operations thousands of kilometers away, but also organized small-scale ships and even aircraft carrier formations and aviation fleets to conduct in-depth exercises in the ocean; China In the South China Sea, the fortress waters including many large island reef bases have been established. It also has the ability to resist the refusal/anti-intrusion of a single aircraft carrier strike group and imaginary enemy. It can be used in many important and critical occasions. Provide a solid foundation for safeguarding national interests.
Regional refusal/anti-intervention capability is an important new achievement for the PLA
To be able to achieve such achievements, one must rely on the PLA's continuous learning of CCTV for high-tech conditions informationized warfare and the reform of the system and the reform of the warfare law. In recent years, our military has continuously carried out large-scale and systematic changes to the training outline, the force preparation, the command process, the decision-making system and the leadership pattern around the actual requirements. Especially since entering the new era, the PLA has led the management of the military committee with the characteristics of the traditional four headquarters. The thorough reform of the system is undoubtedly the backbone of the Chinese military's ability to face the challenges of today's world. In addition, the financial support provided by China's rapid economic growth and the advanced weapons and equipment provided by the military industry are the new era of armed forces. The People’s Liberation Army has become the key to a daunting force.
In the past ten years or so, we have witnessed the rapid development of the Chinese army's land, sea and air force equipment field, and the new generation of PLA equipment system is gradually taking shape. According to the construction goal of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to ensure that the mechanization will be basically achieved by 2020, the informationization construction will make significant progress, and the strategic capability will be greatly improved. With the 20th year of entering the second half of the year, the time of the “transfer” from 2020 will also be higher. The closer the coming, the more modernized mechanization and information equipment of the People's Liberation Army has been made public. For example, the 99A main battle tank, the 15-type light tank, the 04A infantry fighting vehicle, the "big eight-wheel" car family, the "Dongfeng warrior" car family, the 05A self-propelled artillery and other series of army ground equipment have been equipped with troops in batches; the 002 aircraft carrier The 055-type large guided missile destroyer, 052D guided missile destroyer, 054A guided missile frigate, 056 light frigate and 901/903A integrated supply ship are also fully formed. The new generation of surface combat ships has also been fully formed; including 歼-20, 歼-16, 歼-10C The new generation of air force combat forces represented by new fighters such as H-6K and Yun-20 have not yet been fully formed, but they have also outlined the air combat system of the Chinese Air Force...
Advanced in weapons and equipment has already allowed the PLA to occupy a place in the world's cutting-edge technology.
Although the replacement of these new equipment is still going on, the PLA still has a lot of old equipment, but whether it is equipment performance or the number of equipment, the contemporary PLA is far behind the world’s number one US army in many fields. However, it is definitely a competitive competitor who competes for the second place in the world. However, in addition to the equipment in these traditional fields, the new generation of equipment of the People's Liberation Army and some new concept weapons are, to a certain extent, the new highlights and top priorities in the future development of the PLA.
The first thing to focus on is the new generation of strategic strike forces of the People's Liberation Army. For a long time, the People's Liberation Army has used the Dongfeng-5 series of liquid fuels and the solid Dongfeng-31/31A/31AG series of intercontinental ballistic missiles as the core force of strategic nuclear strikes. Although these two types of ballistic missiles have been constantly upgraded, the overall structure of the two is no longer advanced, and the potential for further development is limited. This is also the important reason why the PLA has developed Dongfeng-41 and a new generation of liquid intercontinental ballistic missiles, and may even develop other types of intercontinental missiles at the same time.
Although there are many missile models in our army, many technical structures are old.
At the same time as vehicles such as missiles are being upgraded, the number of nuclear warheads that are critical to strategic nuclear deterrence is also an important factor. China’s nuclear arsenal is still in the middle of several major nuclear powers, although it has allowed China to occupy a moral high ground in response to the demands of some Western countries to demand that China also be drawn into the negotiations on a comprehensive strategic arms reduction treaty. China is at a disadvantage when it is facing the nuclear deterrent confrontation of real guns. In order to enhance the deterrence of China’s nuclear arsenal, although the rapid expansion of the size of the nuclear arsenal may not be the first choice, more nuclear weapons will be transferred to the strategic vehicles at the intercontinental missile level instead of the medium-range such as Dongfeng-21. The rise of nuclear deterrent weapons will obviously be a trend along with the development of China’s strategic strike force.
In addition to the key strategic deterrent weapons, the development of the PLA's operational-grade weapon systems is also an important area of concern for some time to come. The weapons originally classified in this category were short-range ballistic missiles of the Middle East Wind-11 and Dongfeng-15 of our army. At that time, the main purpose of such weapons was to prepare and suppress the first wave of firepower against Taiwan. With the increase in the number of short-range ballistic missiles and the improvement of the Dongfeng-21 series, the implementation of conventional strike missions, coupled with the service of a series of long-range air-ground cruise missiles, the PLA’s combat strike force is not only rich in means, but also on the operational scope. It also covers and surpasses the first island chain; with the emergence of the Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the opponents of this battle against weapons have exceeded the scope of traditional ground soft and hard targets, and extended to the sea to be the aircraft carrier. On behalf of the large surface ships on the sea; the introduction of contemporary supersonic weapon technology, and further strengthen the Chinese campaign. Although the relevant weapons currently using this technology are still in strict secrecy, there is no doubt that a variety of hypersonic technologies can be used to perform anti-ship and land-attack missions, and the range is beyond the first island chain and even covers one. The new generation of combat strike weapons in the scope of the Second Island Chain will become a key weapon in the field of enhanced regional refusal/anti-intrusion operations in the new era.
Hypersonic weapons will become one of the key killers of the PLA
In addition to these "hard-to-hard" weapons, the use of various types of unmanned platforms in the People's Liberation Army deserves further attention. Although conceptually speaking, UAVs have served in the People’s Liberation Army for decades, and the history of UAVs’ large-scale deployment of the PLA for activities such as artillery firing and battlefield reconnaissance has been considerable. The understanding of the outside world in the role of various drones in our military combat system is actually not profound. Because in the current foreign trade market, the sales of the "one-wing" and "rainbow" series of unmanned drones are hot, and our army is indeed equipped with the "winged dragon" series of self-use models - "attack" The series is used to inspect one unmanned aerial vehicle. Therefore, in the eyes of many people, it is the development direction of China's contemporary drones to detect the drones that are created for the security war. However, from the use of the People's Liberation Army, the role of various large-scale strategic reconnaissance drones and early warning and electronic warfare drones in development is often more important. In recent years of confrontation with foreign troops, Chinese drones have played a key role in relying on their own performance characteristics. It is believed that as the PLA's progress in this field continues to deepen, the progress made by our military in the field of advanced drones and the actual application of it should be more known to the outside world.
For the People's Liberation Army, after more than ten years of efforts to achieve rapid development of mechanization and informatization, the mechanized development of the PLA has had relatively clear goals and directions, and the goal of our military informationization is in the construction of our army. We are steadily advancing in the constant exploration. For the People’s Liberation Army, which has already built its 92nd anniversary, we have reason to be confident in its achievements.
解放军未来10年路在何方：扩充核武库将成重要选项
解放军未来10年路在何方：扩充核武库将成重要选项
1,660
[文/ 观察者网专栏作者 施洋]
本周适逢中国人民解放军建军92周年的八一建军节，解放军在授予一系列荣誉的同时，愈加自信地展示建军以来取得的成果。
八月一日，解放军迎来了建军92周年的纪念日，单纯来看这一时间并非逢五逢十的整数年，但由于今年适逢中华人民共和国成立七十周年，且今年又是人民海军和人民空军成立70周年，加上近日国防部刚刚发布了《新时代的中国国防》白皮书，因此今年八一建军节里我军所透露的各种消息，无疑都令人高度关注。
在建军节前和节日当天，有关解放军的消息可谓接连不断：军委主席习近平签署通令，给4名个人、1个单位记功，向1名获得荣誉称号的个人颁授奖章和证书，向3个获得荣誉称号的单位颁授奖旗；中央军委举行仪式，正式给10位军官警官晋升上将军衔警衔；空军发布宣传短片，首次公开中俄战略轰炸机“同框”开展巡航的画面；首艘国产航母再次出港进行海试；东海和福建沿海的两处军事演习同时开始……
这些活动中，既有对解放军军队荣誉的鼓励与传承，又有对高级指挥员的晋衔调整，有公开解放军与外军深入合作协同巡航的重要情况，也有对解放军重要的大型主战装备的关键性测试。这表明建军节既不是解放军放松警惕的“休息日”，也不是形式主义的“歌颂节”，比起单纯的建军节庆祝，这一系列动作所包含的意义显然要大得多。
即使是建军节，解放军的发展也没有一点停歇
从上世纪90年代初冷战结束到现在，经过接近30年的发展，解放军的建设毫无疑问取得了巨大的进步和发展。这从我国武装力量在应对周边地区和国际上的各类重大事件中的表现中就有明显的体现。
90年代初中国在远洋上毫无存在感，无法保护本国的海外商船，只能任由别国海军进行临检拿捕；在南沙等远海水域缺乏底气，在维护本国主权时只能将军事力量伪装成看上去“无害”的渔政部门，而在勘探开发本国海上自然资源遭遇外国力量干涉时最终只能退避三舍；甚至在中国近海，美国航母战斗群也能随意接近，并且为我国合理合法的军事行动制造障碍……
而到了本世纪的第二个十年，中国不仅已经可以运筹数千公里外的撤侨和远海护航行动，也能够组织规模不小的舰艇甚至航母编队和航空兵机群深入大洋进行实战化演练；中国在南中国海建立起了包括多座大型岛礁基地在内的堡垒水域，也具备了对抗单支航母打击大队和假想敌的区域拒止/反介入作战能力，能够在许多重要而关键的场合为维护国家利益提供坚实的基础。
区域拒止/反介入作战能力是解放军的一个重要的新成就
能够取得这样的成绩，一要依靠的自然是解放军对于高技术条件信息化战争央视的不断学习与对解放军自身有针对性的体制编制改革与战法学法革新。这从近年来我军不断围绕实战要求对训练大纲、部队编制、指挥流程、决策体系和领导格局进行大规模系统性变革，特别是进入新时代以来解放军对于以传统四总部为特征的军委领导管理体制进行的彻底改革，毫无疑问是中国军队能够面对当今世界的挑战的主心骨；除此之外，中国经济高速增长提供的资金支持与军事工业厚积薄发所提供的先进武器装备，是武装新时代人民解放军成为一支令人望而生畏力量的关键。
在过去的十年左右时间里，我们见证了中国军队陆海空军装备领域的突飞猛进，新一代的解放军装备体系也在逐渐成型。按照中共十九大“确保到2020年基本实现机械化，信息化建设取得重大进展，战略能力有大的提升”的建设目标，随着2019年进入下半年，距离2020年的“交卷”时间也越来越近，解放军的新一代机械化、信息化装备多数也已经实现了公开。诸如以99A主战坦克、15式轻型坦克、04A步兵战车、“大八轮”车族、“东风猛士”车族、05A自行火炮等一系列陆军地面装备已经批量装备部队；以002型航空母舰、055型大型导弹驱逐舰、052D导弹驱逐舰、054A导弹护卫舰、056轻型护卫舰和901/903A综合补给舰为代表的新一代水面作战舰艇也已经全面成型；包括歼-20、歼-16、歼-10C、轰-6K、运-20等新型战机为代表的新一代空军作战力量虽然尚未完全成型，但也已经勾勒出了中国空军的空中作战体系大概……
先进在武器装备已经让解放军在世界尖端技术上占据一席之地
尽管这些新装备的换装还在继续之中，解放军也还保有不少老旧装备，但无论是装备性能还是装备数量，当代解放军尽管在不少领域距离世界第一的美国军队还差距甚远，但绝对已经是争夺世界第二的有利竞争选手。不过除了这些传统领域的装备之外，解放军的新一代装备以及一些新概念武器，某种程度上才是未来解放军发展中的新看点和重中之重。
首先要关注的是解放军的新一代战略打击力量。长期以来，解放军都以液体燃料的东风-5系列和固体的东风-31/31A/31AG系列洲际弹道导弹作为战略核打击的核心力量。这两类弹道导弹尽管一直处于不断升级之中，但二者的整体架构已经不再先进，进一步发展的潜力也较为有限。这也就是解放军发展包括东风-41和新一代液体洲际弹道导弹，甚至可能同时发展其他类型洲际导弹的重要原因。
虽然我军现役的导弹型号很多，但不少的技术架构已经老旧
在导弹这样的载具更新换代的同时，对于战略核威慑至关重要的核弹头数量也是一个重要的因素。中国的核武库规模至今仍然处于几大核大国中靠后的位置，尽管这让中国在应对西方一些国家主张要求将中国也拉入全面削减战略武器条约的谈判之时占据道德高地，但也让中国在真正面对真刀真枪的核威慑对抗时处于不利地位。为了增强中国核武库的威慑力，虽然迅速扩充核武库的规模未必会是第一选择，但将更多的核武器转移到洲际导弹级别的战略载具上而不是如东风-21这样的“中程核威慑武器”上来，显然会是伴随中国战略打击力量发展的一个趋势。
除了关键性的战略威慑武器外，解放军的战役级武器系统的发展也是未来一段时间里值得关注的重要领域。最初被归入这一范畴内的武器是我军中东风-11和东风-15这一级别的短程弹道导弹，当时这类武器的主要用途是进行对台第一波次的火力准备和压制。随着短程弹道导弹改进型号的增多和东风-21系列改进型号也开始执行常规打击任务，加上一系列远程空地巡航导弹的服役，解放军的战役打击力量不仅在手段上更加丰富，在作战范围上也覆盖和超越了第一岛链；随着东风-21D反舰弹道导弹的横空出世，这种战役打击武器的对手已经超出了传统的地面软硬目标的范围，而延伸到了海上以航空母舰为代表的海上大型水面舰艇上；当代高超音速武器技术的引入，又将中国的战役打击力量进一步强化。尽管目前运用这一技术的相关武器还处在严格保密之中，但毫无疑问，多款使用高超音速技术，可以执行反舰和对陆攻击任务，且射程超出第一岛链甚至覆盖一、二岛链范围的新一代战役打击武器将成为新时期解放军在增强区域拒止/反介入作战领域的关键武器。
高超音速武器将成为解放军的关键杀手锏之一
除了这些“硬碰硬”的武器之外，各类无人平台在解放军中的运用也值得进一步关注。虽然从概念上说，无人机在解放军中服役也已经有了好几十年的历史，无人机大规模装备解放军用于诸如炮兵校射、战场侦察等活动的历史也有相当的时间，但对于我军作战体系中各种无人机所扮演的角色，外界的了解认识其实并不深刻。由于在当下的外贸市场上，类似“翼龙”、“彩虹”系列的察打一体无人机的销售炙手可热，加上我军也确实装备了“翼龙”系列的自用型号——“攻击”系列察打一体无人机，因此在不少人看来，察打一体无人机这样面向治安战而生的无人机是我国当代无人机的发展方向。但从解放军的使用情况看，各种大型战略侦察无人机以及研制中的预警、电子战无人机在实际行动中所起到的作用则往往更加重大。在近年与外军的多次交锋之中，中国的无人机都依靠其自身的性能特点扮演了关键的作用。相信随着解放军在这一领域取得的进展不断深入，有关我军在先进无人机领域取得的进展及其实际应用的相关情况，应该会更多为外界所知。
对解放军而言，在经历了十余年同时努力实现机械化和信息化的快速发展之后，解放军的机械化发展已经有了相对清晰明确的目标和方向，而我军信息化的目标则在我军建设的不断探索之中稳步前进，对于已经建军92周年的人民解放军，我们有理由为它取得更大的成就充满信心。
Where is the PLA's road in the next 10 years: expanding the nuclear arsenal will become an important option
Where is the PLA's road in the next 10 years: expanding the nuclear arsenal will become an important option
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[Text / Observer Network columnist Shi Yang]
This week coincides with the August 1st Army Day of the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. While granting a series of honors, the People's Liberation Army has more confidently demonstrated the achievements since the establishment of the army.
On August 1, the People's Liberation Army ushered in the commemoration day of the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the army. It is not an integer year since the beginning of this period, but this year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and this year is the people. The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Navy and the People's Air Force, and the recent launch of the "New China's National Defense" white paper by the Ministry of National Defense, the news revealed by our military during the August 1st Army Day is undoubtedly highly regarded.
Before the Jianjun Festival and on the day of the festival, the news about the People's Liberation Army was successive: the Chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping signed a general order, and recorded four individuals and one unit, and awarded medals and certificates to one individual who received the honorary title. The unit that received the honorary title awarded the award flag; the Central Military Commission held a ceremony to officially give 10 military officers and police officers the rank of generals; the Air Force issued a publicity video to publicize the Sino-Russian strategic bomber "same frame" for the first time; the first domestic aircraft carrier I will leave Hong Kong for a sea trial again; two military exercises along the coast of the East China Sea and Fujian will begin at the same time...
Among these activities, there are not only the encouragement and inheritance of the honor of the PLA army, but also the adjustment of the ranks of senior commanders. There are important situations in which the PLA and the foreign troops cooperate in intensive cooperation and cruise, and there are also important main battle equipments for the PLA. Critical testing. This shows that the Army Day is neither a "rest day" for the PLA to relax its vigilance, nor a formal "Cultural Festival". This series of actions is obviously much more meaningful than the simple Day of the Army.
Even on the Army Day, the PLA’s development has not stopped.
From the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s to the present, after nearly 30 years of development, the construction of the People's Liberation Army has undoubtedly made great progress and development. This is evident from the performance of our armed forces in dealing with various major events in the surrounding areas and internationally.
In the early 1990s, China did not have a sense of existence in the ocean. It could not protect its overseas merchant ships. It could only be allowed to be arrested by other countries’ navies. It lacked the sufficiency in the far-sea waters such as Nansha, and only camouflaged military forces in safeguarding its sovereignty. It becomes a “harmless” fishery department, and when it comes to the exploration and development of its natural marine resources, it can only be retreat when it encounters foreign forces. Even in China’s offshore, the US aircraft carrier battle group can be freely approached and reasonable and legal for our country. Military operations create obstacles...
In the second decade of this century, China has not only been able to manage evacuation and offshore escort operations thousands of kilometers away, but also organized small-scale ships and even aircraft carrier formations and aviation fleets to conduct in-depth exercises in the ocean; China In the South China Sea, the fortress waters including many large island reef bases have been established. It also has the ability to resist the refusal/anti-intrusion of a single aircraft carrier strike group and imaginary enemy. It can be used in many important and critical occasions. Provide a solid foundation for safeguarding national interests.
Regional refusal/anti-intervention capability is an important new achievement for the PLA
To be able to achieve such achievements, one must rely on the PLA's continuous learning of CCTV for high-tech conditions informationized warfare and the reform of the system and the reform of the warfare law. In recent years, our military has continuously carried out large-scale and systematic changes to the training outline, the force preparation, the command process, the decision-making system and the leadership pattern around the actual requirements. Especially since entering the new era, the PLA has led the management of the military committee with the characteristics of the traditional four headquarters. The thorough reform of the system is undoubtedly the backbone of the Chinese military's ability to face the challenges of today's world. In addition, the financial support provided by China's rapid economic growth and the advanced weapons and equipment provided by the military industry are the new era of armed forces. The People’s Liberation Army has become the key to a daunting force.
In the past ten years or so, we have witnessed the rapid development of the Chinese army's land, sea and air force equipment field, and the new generation of PLA equipment system is gradually taking shape. According to the construction goal of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to ensure that the mechanization will be basically achieved by 2020, the informationization construction will make significant progress, and the strategic capability will be greatly improved. With the 20th year of entering the second half of the year, the time of the “transfer” from 2020 will also be higher. The closer the coming, the more modernized mechanization and information equipment of the People's Liberation Army has been made public. For example, the 99A main battle tank, the 15-type light tank, the 04A infantry fighting vehicle, the "big eight-wheel" car family, the "Dongfeng warrior" car family, the 05A self-propelled artillery and other series of army ground equipment have been equipped with troops in batches; the 002 aircraft carrier The 055-type large guided missile destroyer, 052D guided missile destroyer, 054A guided missile frigate, 056 light frigate and 901/903A integrated supply ship are also fully formed. The new generation of surface combat ships has also been fully formed; including 歼-20, 歼-16, 歼-10C The new generation of air force combat forces represented by new fighters such as H-6K and Yun-20 have not yet been fully formed, but they have also outlined the air combat system of the Chinese Air Force...
Advanced in weapons and equipment has already allowed the PLA to occupy a place in the world's cutting-edge technology.
Although the replacement of these new equipment is still going on, the PLA still has a lot of old equipment, but whether it is equipment performance or the number of equipment, the contemporary PLA is far behind the world’s number one US army in many fields. However, it is definitely a competitive competitor who competes for the second place in the world. However, in addition to the equipment in these traditional fields, the new generation of equipment of the People's Liberation Army and some new concept weapons are, to a certain extent, the new highlights and top priorities in the future development of the PLA.
The first thing to focus on is the new generation of strategic strike forces of the People's Liberation Army. For a long time, the People's Liberation Army has used the Dongfeng-5 series of liquid fuels and the solid Dongfeng-31/31A/31AG series of intercontinental ballistic missiles as the core force of strategic nuclear strikes. Although these two types of ballistic missiles have been constantly upgraded, the overall structure of the two is no longer advanced, and the potential for further development is limited. This is also the important reason why the PLA has developed Dongfeng-41 and a new generation of liquid intercontinental ballistic missiles, and may even develop other types of intercontinental missiles at the same time.
Although there are many missile models in our army, many technical structures are old.
At the same time as vehicles such as missiles are being upgraded, the number of nuclear warheads that are critical to strategic nuclear deterrence is also an important factor. China’s nuclear arsenal is still in the middle of several major nuclear powers, although it has allowed China to occupy a moral high ground in response to the demands of some Western countries to demand that China also be drawn into the negotiations on a comprehensive strategic arms reduction treaty. China is at a disadvantage when it is facing the nuclear deterrent confrontation of real guns. In order to enhance the deterrence of China’s nuclear arsenal, although the rapid expansion of the size of the nuclear arsenal may not be the first choice, more nuclear weapons will be transferred to the strategic vehicles at the intercontinental missile level instead of the medium-range such as Dongfeng-21. The rise of nuclear deterrent weapons will obviously be a trend along with the development of China’s strategic strike force.
In addition to the key strategic deterrent weapons, the development of the PLA's operational-grade weapon systems is also an important area of concern for some time to come. The weapons originally classified in this category were short-range ballistic missiles of the Middle East Wind-11 and Dongfeng-15 of our army. At that time, the main purpose of such weapons was to prepare and suppress the first wave of firepower against Taiwan. With the increase in the number of short-range ballistic missiles and the improvement of the Dongfeng-21 series, the implementation of conventional strike missions, coupled with the service of a series of long-range air-ground cruise missiles, the PLA’s combat strike force is not only rich in means, but also on the operational scope. It also covers and surpasses the first island chain; with the emergence of the Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, the opponents of this battle against weapons have exceeded the scope of traditional ground soft and hard targets, and extended to the sea to be the aircraft carrier. On behalf of the large surface ships on the sea; the introduction of contemporary supersonic weapon technology, and further strengthen the Chinese campaign. Although the relevant weapons currently using this technology are still in strict secrecy, there is no doubt that a variety of hypersonic technologies can be used to perform anti-ship and land-attack missions, and the range is beyond the first island chain and even covers one. The new generation of combat strike weapons in the scope of the Second Island Chain will become a key weapon in the field of enhanced regional refusal/anti-intrusion operations in the new era.
Hypersonic weapons will become one of the key killers of the PLA
In addition to these "hard-to-hard" weapons, the use of various types of unmanned platforms in the People's Liberation Army deserves further attention. Although conceptually speaking, UAVs have served in the People’s Liberation Army for decades, and the history of UAVs’ large-scale deployment of the PLA for activities such as artillery firing and battlefield reconnaissance has been considerable. The understanding of the outside world in the role of various drones in our military combat system is actually not profound. Because in the current foreign trade market, the sales of the "one-wing" and "rainbow" series of unmanned drones are hot, and our army is indeed equipped with the "winged dragon" series of self-use models - "attack" The series is used to inspect one unmanned aerial vehicle. Therefore, in the eyes of many people, it is the development direction of China's contemporary drones to detect the drones that are created for the security war. However, from the use of the People's Liberation Army, the role of various large-scale strategic reconnaissance drones and early warning and electronic warfare drones in development is often more important. In recent years of confrontation with foreign troops, Chinese drones have played a key role in relying on their own performance characteristics. It is believed that as the PLA's progress in this field continues to deepen, the progress made by our military in the field of advanced drones and the actual application of it should be more known to the outside world.
For the People's Liberation Army, after more than ten years of efforts to achieve rapid development of mechanization and informatization, the mechanized development of the PLA has had relatively clear goals and directions, and the goal of our military informationization is in the construction of our army. We are steadily advancing in the constant exploration. For the People’s Liberation Army, which has already built its 92nd anniversary, we have reason to be confident in its achievements.
