http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5125109/Supervolcano-eruptions-regular-expected.html
Apocalyptic volcanic super eruption that could DESTROY civilisation is much closer than we thought, say experts
Published: 12:06 GMT, 29 November 2017 | Updated: 13:43 GMT, 29 November 2017
13
View comments
The next volcanic 'super eruption' with the power to return humanity to a pre-civilised state could be due much sooner than previously thought.
Experts have previously predicted that the massive eruptions are likely to occur roughly once every 45,000 to 714,000 years.
This assessment, made in 2004, is now being challenged by new findings which say that the most likely time frame is just 17,000 years.
Researchers also estimate the eruptions could happen as often as once every 5,200 years.
Scroll down for video
The next volcanic 'super-eruption' with the power to return humanity to a pre-civilised state could be due much sooner than previously thought. New findings suggest that the most likely time frame is just 17,000 years
SUPER ERUPTIONS
In human history there have been thousands of sizeable eruptions, but not a genuine super eruption, at least not yet.
These extra large eruptions posses devastating power, capable of releasing enough volcanic ash to cover a whole continent and have the potential to wreak havoc with the weather, as weather patterns would change for decades to come.
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere.
That's enough to cover about half of the United States.
The island in the middle of Lake Toba is thought to be a direct result of the earth bulging due to increasing pressure from the increasingly active magma chambers below the Earth's surface.
Geological records studied by researchers from the University of Bristol shows that the most recent volcanic super-eruptions occurred on Earth between 20,000 and 30,000 years ago.
They looked at a database of eruptions, called the LaMEVE database, to make the findings.
By using statistical analysis they discovered that, while large eruptions of around 100 million metric tonnes are less frequent than previously thought, the very largest eruptions of 1,000 gigatonnes or more are much more frequent.
Jonathan Rougier, professor of statistical science at the university, said: 'According to geological records, the two most recent super-eruptions were between 20,000 and 30,000 years ago.
'On balance, we have been slightly lucky not to experience any super-eruptions since then.
'It is important to appreciate that the absence of super-eruptions in the last 20,000 years does not imply that one is overdue.
'What we can say is that volcanoes are more threatening to our civilization than previously thought.
'The technology and techniques used to determine the average time between super-eruptions can also be used to change the approach of seismologists looking at earthquakes.'
The full findings of the study were published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
In human history there have been thousands of sizeable eruptions, but not a genuine super eruption, at least not yet.
RELATED ARTICLES
Share
591 shares
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere
Experts have previously predicted that the massive super-eruptions are likely to occur roughly once every 45,000 to 714,000 years. The supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park is the most closely monitored in the world
These extra large eruptions posess devastating power, capable of releasing enough volcanic ash to cover a whole continent and have the potential to wreak havoc with the weather, as weather patterns would change for decades to come.
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere.
That's enough to cover about half of the United States.
The island in the middle of Lake Toba is thought to be a direct result of the earth bulging due to increasing pressure from the increasingly active magma chambers below the Earth's surface.
According to the new best-estimate, Earth passed it's due date between 3,000 and 13,000 years ago.
NASA'S PLAN TO PREVENT A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION
Nasa believes drilling up to six miles (10km) down into the supervolcano beneath Yellowstone National Park to pump in water at high pressure could cool it.
Despite the fact that the mission would cost $3.46 billion (£2.63 billion), Nasa considers it 'the most viable solution.'
Using the heat as a resource also poses an opportunity to pay for plan - it could be used to create a geothermal plant, which generates electric power at extremely competitive prices of around $0.10 (£0.08) per kWh.
But this method of subduing a supervolcano has the potential to backfire and trigger the supervolcanic eruption Nasa is trying to prevent.
'Drilling into the top of the magma chamber 'would be very risky;' however, carefully drilling from the lower sides could work.
Even besides the potential devastating risks, the plan to cool Yellowstone with drilling is not simple.
Doing so would be an excruciatingly slow process that one happen at the rate of one metre a year, meaning it would take tens of thousands of years to cool it completely.
And still, there wouldn't be a guarantee it would be successful for at least hundreds or possibly thousands of years.
Super-volcanoes like Yellowstone is constantly showing signs of potential eruption and recent evidence suggests it could be primed for an eruption in the near future.
Despite a notable increase in seismic activity and the associated risks, the park's geysers prove to still be a prominent tourist attraction.
The potential devastation of a super-volcano can only be speculated as there has never been one through all of human history. Volcanic eruptions have caused huge damage and loss of life. Famous examples include: St. Helens, Etna and Vesuvius.
In recent memory, volcanic activity has had huge implications of modern life.
Icelandic volcano Bárðarbunga was so active back in 2014 to 2015 that it's ash clouds grounded flights in Western Europe for six months.
Read more:
Apocalyptic volcanic super eruption that could DESTROY civilisation is much closer than we thought, say experts
- An eruption would be capable of returning humanity to a pre-civilisation state
- The mammoth explosions could release over 1,000 gigatons of ash into the air
- Super eruptions may occur as regularly as once every 17,000 years
- The window between super-eruptions could be as short as every 5,200 years
Published: 12:06 GMT, 29 November 2017 | Updated: 13:43 GMT, 29 November 2017
13
View comments
The next volcanic 'super eruption' with the power to return humanity to a pre-civilised state could be due much sooner than previously thought.
Experts have previously predicted that the massive eruptions are likely to occur roughly once every 45,000 to 714,000 years.
This assessment, made in 2004, is now being challenged by new findings which say that the most likely time frame is just 17,000 years.
Researchers also estimate the eruptions could happen as often as once every 5,200 years.
Scroll down for video
The next volcanic 'super-eruption' with the power to return humanity to a pre-civilised state could be due much sooner than previously thought. New findings suggest that the most likely time frame is just 17,000 years
SUPER ERUPTIONS
In human history there have been thousands of sizeable eruptions, but not a genuine super eruption, at least not yet.
These extra large eruptions posses devastating power, capable of releasing enough volcanic ash to cover a whole continent and have the potential to wreak havoc with the weather, as weather patterns would change for decades to come.
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere.
That's enough to cover about half of the United States.
The island in the middle of Lake Toba is thought to be a direct result of the earth bulging due to increasing pressure from the increasingly active magma chambers below the Earth's surface.
Geological records studied by researchers from the University of Bristol shows that the most recent volcanic super-eruptions occurred on Earth between 20,000 and 30,000 years ago.
They looked at a database of eruptions, called the LaMEVE database, to make the findings.
By using statistical analysis they discovered that, while large eruptions of around 100 million metric tonnes are less frequent than previously thought, the very largest eruptions of 1,000 gigatonnes or more are much more frequent.
Jonathan Rougier, professor of statistical science at the university, said: 'According to geological records, the two most recent super-eruptions were between 20,000 and 30,000 years ago.
'On balance, we have been slightly lucky not to experience any super-eruptions since then.
'It is important to appreciate that the absence of super-eruptions in the last 20,000 years does not imply that one is overdue.
'What we can say is that volcanoes are more threatening to our civilization than previously thought.
'The technology and techniques used to determine the average time between super-eruptions can also be used to change the approach of seismologists looking at earthquakes.'
The full findings of the study were published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
In human history there have been thousands of sizeable eruptions, but not a genuine super eruption, at least not yet.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Technology firms like Facebook are an 'existential threat to...
Hope for the Great Barrier Reef as scientists discover a...
Age of 'Christ's tomb' is revealed: Mortar used in the...
Huge Apple security glitch gives ANYONE access to your Mac...
Share
591 shares
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere
Experts have previously predicted that the massive super-eruptions are likely to occur roughly once every 45,000 to 714,000 years. The supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park is the most closely monitored in the world
These extra large eruptions posess devastating power, capable of releasing enough volcanic ash to cover a whole continent and have the potential to wreak havoc with the weather, as weather patterns would change for decades to come.
The largest eruption of the last two million years ago was the eruption at Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia which spewed 671 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of volcanic ash into the atmosphere.
That's enough to cover about half of the United States.
The island in the middle of Lake Toba is thought to be a direct result of the earth bulging due to increasing pressure from the increasingly active magma chambers below the Earth's surface.
According to the new best-estimate, Earth passed it's due date between 3,000 and 13,000 years ago.
NASA'S PLAN TO PREVENT A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION
Nasa believes drilling up to six miles (10km) down into the supervolcano beneath Yellowstone National Park to pump in water at high pressure could cool it.
Despite the fact that the mission would cost $3.46 billion (£2.63 billion), Nasa considers it 'the most viable solution.'
Using the heat as a resource also poses an opportunity to pay for plan - it could be used to create a geothermal plant, which generates electric power at extremely competitive prices of around $0.10 (£0.08) per kWh.
But this method of subduing a supervolcano has the potential to backfire and trigger the supervolcanic eruption Nasa is trying to prevent.
'Drilling into the top of the magma chamber 'would be very risky;' however, carefully drilling from the lower sides could work.
Even besides the potential devastating risks, the plan to cool Yellowstone with drilling is not simple.
Doing so would be an excruciatingly slow process that one happen at the rate of one metre a year, meaning it would take tens of thousands of years to cool it completely.
And still, there wouldn't be a guarantee it would be successful for at least hundreds or possibly thousands of years.
Super-volcanoes like Yellowstone is constantly showing signs of potential eruption and recent evidence suggests it could be primed for an eruption in the near future.
Despite a notable increase in seismic activity and the associated risks, the park's geysers prove to still be a prominent tourist attraction.
The potential devastation of a super-volcano can only be speculated as there has never been one through all of human history. Volcanic eruptions have caused huge damage and loss of life. Famous examples include: St. Helens, Etna and Vesuvius.
In recent memory, volcanic activity has had huge implications of modern life.
Icelandic volcano Bárðarbunga was so active back in 2014 to 2015 that it's ash clouds grounded flights in Western Europe for six months.
Read more:
- Volcano Comeback: Understanding Resurgence at Lake Toba - YouTube
- Earth and Planetary Science Letters - Journal - Elsevier
