Dalai Lama's reps play cards deftly against China

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Dalai Lama's reps play cards deftly against China
2 February 2010, 08:58pm

Under India's overall protection, the Dalai Lama and his followers at their Indian enclave Dharmashala, deftly play their cards that worry China.

BEIJING: China on Tuesday warned US president Barack Obama of a dangerous slide in Sino-US relationship if he ventured to meet the Dalai Lama.

The warning, which came after the end of its talks with the Tibetan leader’s envoys, shows Beijing is extremely worried about the international support he continues to receive.

The Dalai Lama’s envoys appear to have played their cards deftly by taking away an important plank in the Chinese game plan. Beijing has been working on what it thought was a desperate desire of the aging Tibetan leader to visit his home and meet his people.

At the meeting, Dharmashala’s envoys submitted a note that "made clear that His Holiness the Dalai Lama and other members of the exiled leadership have no personal demands to make", a statement from the Tibetan leader’s government in exile in India, said.

"The fundamental issue that needs to be resolved is the faithful implementation of genuine autonomy that will enable the Tibetan people to govern themselves in accordance with their own genius and needs," the two envoys, Kasur Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen, said in a statement.

The talks which took place after a gap of 15 months have got deadlocked on the issue of greater autonomy for Tibetan people being sought by the Dalai Lama. Beijing has completely rejected the demand.

China said it did not recognize the so-called Tibetan government in exile as it "absolutely violates China's laws". Dalai Lama’s private representatives "have no legal status to discuss with us the affairs about Tibet Autonomous Region," Zhu said.

 

[longbow]

I think Beijing strategy is very straight forward:

1) Set OB marker and make lots of noise over anyone meeting Dalai Lama in an unofficial capacity. Lots of saber rattling here. By setting such an OB marker, everyone knows that if Beijing is so pissed off about just a casual meeting no need to even consider anything else.

2) Continue to improve roads and trains leading to Tibet (troops can be sent there at moment's notice) and flood Tibet with Han Chinese eager to do some form of business. Improve standards of living for local Tibetians.

3) Wait out for DL to die. The whole transfer of power for DL is at most mystical - slection of some young boy who is reincarnated blah blah blah. Beijing will probably try to find their own rep. DL is 75 year old. I think Beijing can easily wait another 10 years.


There is very little that Dalai Lama can do - he does not hold many cards. If he supports forceful intervention - well that is not buddhist way and that would not achieve much. For the rest of the world, other than some Hollywood actors, it would not be in their interest to touch on matters that are of such sensitivity to the China - business as usual.

In global arena - US nation interest at the moment is Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran (their military cost is draining their coffers). To have air tight UN sanctions against Iran they need China's vote in the security council as well as Chinese support. Afghanistan - China has a common border with Afghanistan and you can be sure that the Chinese probably has a pretty good intelligence on what is going on inside; but at the moment it is a tussle between Indian vs pakistani influence.

In short status quo and wait till DL kicks the bucket.